Which Country Is Going To Be The Next Leading Force In 15-30 years?

[K1 Lambo]

It's difficult to predict the future of our current world. Here's what I came up with:

1. Russia/China. China is ridiculously smart with how they don't allow the chinese folks to get influenced by the west's propaganda/matrix thinking by watching Facebook dog videos, Instagram's liberal world views by bombarding young mens' feed with men who are wearing makeup and constantly show half naked girls to further propagate the simp mindset while the elites are laughing their asses off by watching us. On the other hand, China have their own social networks and CHINA controls the narrative there. Not to mention they're also building an infrastructure in Africa which is gonna give them even more power. And also, their society has very strong traditional values aka a patriarchal society with men in charge while women do what they're best at. No feminist bullshit exists there where men are pretending to be women and vice versa which is going to lead to the oblivion of the west. It's literally the reverse of what the Nazis' were propagating(Nazis were heavily tilted to the right whereas now the elites are heavily on the left with allowing everything and having no standards). Russia is very similar to China in that regard. They also have that "I don't give a f@ck" attitude towards the world, we have our own values, we believe in our own people and we want to make our country powerful. Now, Russia is not as well developed as China economically, it's still a very wealthy country nonetheless when we're talking about the top 1% richest Russians. There's a huge wealth divide. It's a poor country on paper but boy you go to Moscow and you'll see 6 figure cars very frequently. And the society there also has traditional values, plus Russian women are ridiculously hot which is always a plus.

Isn't it also true that China has the most billionaires as of 2022?

2. India. India is basically what China used to be 30-40 years ago. Sort of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things but now China is a global player. India will for sure be in the top 3 economies in the next 20-30 years. They also have a lot of billionaires.

3. United States. I do not think the US will fall down that much. Sure, it's getting more liberal, weirder and self acceptance is a big thing, but there are still good people in the US who can carry on that "American dream, work hard" thinking throughout generations. Unless, the people who built that country decide to reverse all that bs that's been happening there. US is still the largest economy in the world. Heck, most of us on this forum owe what we have because of the US.

BONUS ONE: As a Pole myself, I hope Poland will be one of the top 10 richest countries in the next 15-30 years. It has an emerging economy(best in europe so far), and a lot of investors are moving down there because it's ridiculously cheap and offers a lot of opportunity. If I recall correctly, there was one billionaire who said that Poland is going to be in the richest country in the world in the next 20-30 years. And the guy predicted all market crashes so far. Think it was Ray Dalio but I might be wrong.

What's your list?

 

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[GuestUser4aMPs1]

Usually this is a LARP I won't entertain but here goes.

India really has the largest population of youth and energy.

Indians are extremely hard working and inventive people.

The USA and China both have their problems and their youth population window passed.

So, my bet is India will gain a lot of influence.

Else, the world is run by decentralized network states or Jesus returns by then.

 

[PiotrB]

Russian women are ridiculously hot which is always a plus

I'm going with Russia as the next leading force all day long!

 

[Xeon]

China is ridiculously smart with how they don't allow the chinese folks to get influenced by the west's propaganda/matrix thinking by watching Facebook dog videos, Instagram's liberal world views by bombarding young mens' feed with men who are wearing makeup and constantly show half naked girls to further propagate the simp mindset while the elites are laughing their asses off by watching us. On the other hand, China have their own social networks and CHINA controls the narrative there.

Yes and no. The part highlighted in red above, is inaccurate. There was a trend in China which started some years back, where men are influenced to become pretty boys (in part by Korean pop culture), by putting on makeup, and using phone filters to make their faces more feminine.

This lead to their gov to do something about this: China Targets ‘Effeminate’ Men in Xi’s Mounting Push for Conformity

Which is a good move, and also things like banning/limiting gaming:

China Tightens Limits for Young Online Gamers and Bans School Night Play (Published 2021)

The restrictions reflect the government’s intensifying push for companies to jettison what it says are unhealthy cultural influences.

www.nytimes.com

Some may call this authoritarian or dictatorship, but some order/structure is needed in society to prevent it from falling apart completely, and to prevent the whole toxic woke BS from creeping in.

Sure, it's getting more liberal, weirder and self acceptance is a big thing, but there are still good people in the US who can carry on that "American dream, work hard" thinking throughout generations.

The biggest issue with the US now, looking at it from a non-US citizen POV, is that the US government does not seem to be putting in any interest/effort in improving/building up the infrastructure and society ills like drugs/poor control of criminals flowing in from South America/homelessness/identity politics which is dividing and ruining the country. Their latest hobby seems to be going to Asia to stir wars.

As a Pole myself, I hope Poland will be one of the top 10 richest countries in the next 15-30 years. It has an emerging economy(best in europe so far),

I've heard news about this but I'm curious what's driving this. I think it's the rise of young entrepreneurs and the Polish gov providing the infrastructure/backbone for this?

If I recall correctly, there was one billionaire who said that Poland is going to be in the richest country in the world in the next 20-30 years.

Respectfully disagree on this. Unless Poland has some insanely valuable natural resources which the world cannot do without (e.g: oil / substance in the ground that can be processed to cure cancer), it's quite a far-fetched thought. The population is a bit too small to make it work on top of that.

But looking at Poland's GDP growth, I believe at this rate it'll eventually be on par with some of the richest European countries (Germany, France, UK etc.). Richest in the world, no, but Top 12 richest, I would think so.

 

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[StrikingViper69]

Unless the USA cataclysmically implodes, it won't stop being the world leader.

Even if they goto CCP levels of communism, it will take a while for people give up and quit / move elsewhere.

 

[K1 Lambo]

Yes and no. The part highlighted in red above, is inaccurate. There was a trend in China which started some years back, where men are influenced to become pretty boys (in part by Korean pop culture), by putting on makeup, and using phone filters to make their faces more feminine.

This lead to their gov to do something about this: China Targets ‘Effeminate’ Men in Xi’s Mounting Push for Conformity

Which is a good move, and also things like banning/limiting gaming:

China Tightens Limits for Young Online Gamers and Bans School Night Play (Published 2021)

The restrictions reflect the government’s intensifying push for companies to jettison what it says are unhealthy cultural influences.

www.nytimes.com

Some may call this authoritarian or dictatorship, but some order/structure is needed in society to prevent it from falling apart completely, and to prevent the whole toxic woke BS from creeping in.




The biggest issue with the US now, looking at it from a non-US citizen POV, is that the US government does not seem to be putting in any interest/effort in improving/building up the infrastructure and society ills like drugs/poor control of criminals flowing in from South America/homelessness/identity politics which is dividing and ruining the country. Their latest hobby seems to be going to Asia to stir wars.




I've heard news about this but I'm curious what's driving this. I think it's the rise of young entrepreneurs and the Polish gov providing the infrastructure/backbone for this?




Respectfully disagree on this. Unless Poland has some insanely valuable natural resources which the world cannot do without (e.g: oil / substance in the ground that can be processed to cure cancer), it's quite a far-fetched thought. The population is a bit too small to make it work on top of that.

But looking at Poland's GDP growth, I believe at this rate it'll eventually be on par with some of the richest European countries (Germany, France, UK etc.). Richest in the world, no, but Top 12 richest, I would think so.

Thank you. That was a smart answer.

Didn't know China started this makeup trend for men in Asia. It's a good thing they're not allowing over there though. Just like you said, a powerful society needs some rules to keep it in check.

Yep, it's probably because Poland became a part of EU back in the early 2000s and has had a raging growing really well since 2008-2009. Not just Poland but also some of the eastern european countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and even some parts of Romania like Bucharest. Poland also has a good amount of fastlaners(20-45 year olds) who are wealthy and live lavishly. Recently Poland has opened up two new exclusive car dealerships like the Bugatti dealer in Katowice or the Pagani dealer in Warsaw, that's really impressive considering it was a 3rd world country 30 years ago post the soviet union.

My mom was recently in Miedzyzdroje(which is a very popular travelling spot in Poland) and she was shocked by how many supercars she saw driving on the roads. 911s, AMGs, Cayennes, Bentleys, a couple Lambos etc. She told me that one city alone has 3x better cars than what we see in Stavanger, Norway. Which kind of surprises me because here we rarely see any supercars, mostly boring electric cars. It's a surprise since Norway on paper per GDP on average is much richer than Poland. But, maybe the top 1% of Poles are wealthier than the top 1% of Norwegians? That could be the case and from what I've read it online, the statistics prove that.

 

[MTF]

My mom was recently in Miedzyzdroje(which is a very popular travelling spot in Poland) and she was shocked by how many supercars she saw driving on the roads. 911s, AMGs, Cayennes, Bentleys, a couple Lambos etc. She told me that one city alone has 3x better cars than what we see in Stavanger, Norway. Which kind of surprises me because here we rarely see any supercars, mostly boring electric cars. It's a surprise since Norway on paper per GDP on average is much richer than Poland. But, maybe the top 1% of Poles are wealthier than the top 1% of Norwegians? That could be the case and from what I've read it online, the statistics prove that.

Nope, it's only because many Polish people are into manifesting status (even if they don't have money to back it up) and car leases are easily accessible (plus you can write it off as a business expense).

Probably like 95% of expensive cars are leased and company-owned (even if you don't need a car for your business). Cars are very expensive in Poland considering average wages.

Polish standards of wealth, based on the data from the Central Statistical Office from 2019:

Top 10% earners: making 6,400+ PLN monthly net income ($1,359)
Top 1% earners: making 14,800+ PLN monthly net income ($3,144)
Top 0.19% earners (millionaires in PLN): making 60,000 PLN monthly net income ($12,747)

Of course, this is on paper. Smart entrepreneurs will keep the money in the company instead of paying themselves a big salary. But still, this shows how little rich people in Poland actually make. If you see any supercars, you know that the owners are most likely crazily leveraged.

 

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[Speculatooor]

India is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, which an inefficient caste system, which makes hampers its growth trajectory badly.

US is on the decline due to being divided, crumbling values, money printing and wealth inequality, expensive wars, etc.

China has central planning, a popping real estate bubble and a declining population (which is very bad for growth).

Japan is imploding after their 30 years of money printing schemes.

Germany is getting rekt due to the Euro, the self-made energy crisis, refugees.

UK has these problems as well, but since getting out of the EU they might be in a better spot. Especially since practically all the taxhavens countries are under british control.

On the short term China looks to be the obvious winner, but on the long term I honestly could not see an obvious choice.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

The US government is one of the worst institutions in the entire world... except for all the others.

 

[Jobless]

What currency will we use for international trade in the future? Most likely it is the USD or a new currency that mimics it.

Main threat to US domination is decentralization of economic systems (crypto, social media and free information), and shifts in energy (green v. nuclear v. oil)

China has manufacturing, natural and rare resources, education. India is far behind.

Russia has oil and gas, but rely on it too heavily.

The EU is essentially an extension of the US. Militarily, culturally, economically.

Good bet for smaller countries is to play two sides and extract as many benefits as possible. Who will be able to do this? Some are already experts at this.

 

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[K1 Lambo]

What currency will we use for international trade in the future? Most likely it is the USD or a new currency that mimics it.

Main threat to US domination is decentralization of economic systems (crypto, social media and free information), and shifts in energy (green v. nuclear v. oil)

China has manufacturing, natural and rare resources, education. India is far behind.

Russia has oil and gas, but rely on it too heavily.

The EU is essentially an extension of the US. Militarily, culturally, economically.

Good bet for smaller countries is to play two sides and extract as many benefits as possible. Who will be able to do this? Some are already experts at this.

What about Germany then? Since you live in Germany, don't you think Germany will remain in the top 5 economies?

 

[Kevin88660]

It's difficult to predict the future of our current world. Here's what I came up with:

1. Russia/China. China is ridiculously smart with how they don't allow the chinese folks to get influenced by the west's propaganda/matrix thinking by watching Facebook dog videos, Instagram's liberal world views by bombarding young mens' feed with men who are wearing makeup and constantly show half naked girls to further propagate the simp mindset while the elites are laughing their asses off by watching us. On the other hand, China have their own social networks and CHINA controls the narrative there. Not to mention they're also building an infrastructure in Africa which is gonna give them even more power. And also, their society has very strong traditional values aka a patriarchal society with men in charge while women do what they're best at. No feminist bullshit exists there where men are pretending to be women and vice versa which is going to lead to the oblivion of the west. It's literally the reverse of what the Nazis' were propagating(Nazis were heavily tilted to the right whereas now the elites are heavily on the left with allowing everything and having no standards). Russia is very similar to China in that regard. They also have that "I don't give a f@ck" attitude towards the world, we have our own values, we believe in our own people and we want to make our country powerful. Now, Russia is not as well developed as China economically, it's still a very wealthy country nonetheless when we're talking about the top 1% richest Russians. There's a huge wealth divide. It's a poor country on paper but boy you go to Moscow and you'll see 6 figure cars very frequently. And the society there also has traditional values, plus Russian women are ridiculously hot which is always a plus.

Isn't it also true that China has the most billionaires as of 2022?

2. India. India is basically what China used to be 30-40 years ago. Sort of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things but now China is a global player. India will for sure be in the top 3 economies in the next 20-30 years. They also have a lot of billionaires.

3. United States. I do not think the US will fall down that much. Sure, it's getting more liberal, weirder and self acceptance is a big thing, but there are still good people in the US who can carry on that "American dream, work hard" thinking throughout generations. Unless, the people who built that country decide to reverse all that bs that's been happening there. US is still the largest economy in the world. Heck, most of us on this forum owe what we have because of the US.

BONUS ONE: As a Pole myself, I hope Poland will be one of the top 10 richest countries in the next 15-30 years. It has an emerging economy(best in europe so far), and a lot of investors are moving down there because it's ridiculously cheap and offers a lot of opportunity. If I recall correctly, there was one billionaire who said that Poland is going to be in the richest country in the world in the next 20-30 years. And the guy predicted all market crashes so far. Think it was Ray Dalio but I might be wrong.

What's your list?

Most likely Candidate is China because they have the potential and also the execution ability to turn the potential into result.

Strong manufacturing and export always comes together with a rising power. UK, US, Germany and Japan in their respective time.

A lot of the Chinese made products are establishing themselves very fast in the higher end space as well.

You don’t see Russia and India capturing the waves of globalization in the 90s, IT waves in the 2000s and E-commerce wave in the 2010s as well as Chinese. All the top global companies are Either U.S. or Chinese. Russia and India have a lot of talents and they all end up working oversea for foreign companies.

These countries have their own politics and history and they don’t follow the left right dichotomy of the West.

The immediate problems of U.S. are pay back times for past mistakes. The problem with consumerism is that it shifted household assets into corporate earnings. On one hand I read household net asset after debt on average in U.S. is near zero, on the hand S&P is the best performing equity class for global investors so far. This is a political problem that is yet to be resolved.

The other issue is debt and cost of managing the U.S. led global system is unsustainable. The U.S. leadership brags that it has many friends and allies but financially this means a lot of liabilities and paying people to listen to U.S.

The challenge faced by Chinese will be that the bureaucracy will not let go of power. There is always fear that when the private sector gets too powerful and influential nobody needs the party and bureaucracy anymore.

 

[Kevin88660]

Yes and no. The part highlighted in red above, is inaccurate. There was a trend in China which started some years back, where men are influenced to become pretty boys (in part by Korean pop culture), by putting on makeup, and using phone filters to make their faces more feminine.

This lead to their gov to do something about this: China Targets ‘Effeminate’ Men in Xi’s Mounting Push for Conformity

Which is a good move, and also things like banning/limiting gaming:

China Tightens Limits for Young Online Gamers and Bans School Night Play (Published 2021)

The restrictions reflect the government’s intensifying push for companies to jettison what it says are unhealthy cultural influences.

www.nytimes.com

Some may call this authoritarian or dictatorship, but some order/structure is needed in society to prevent it from falling apart completely, and to prevent the whole toxic woke BS from creeping in.




The biggest issue with the US now, looking at it from a non-US citizen POV, is that the US government does not seem to be putting in any interest/effort in improving/building up the infrastructure and society ills like drugs/poor control of criminals flowing in from South America/homelessness/identity politics which is dividing and ruining the country. Their latest hobby seems to be going to Asia to stir wars.




I've heard news about this but I'm curious what's driving this. I think it's the rise of young entrepreneurs and the Polish gov providing the infrastructure/backbone for this?




Respectfully disagree on this. Unless Poland has some insanely valuable natural resources which the world cannot do without (e.g: oil / substance in the ground that can be processed to cure cancer), it's quite a far-fetched thought. The population is a bit too small to make it work on top of that.

But looking at Poland's GDP growth, I believe at this rate it'll eventually be on par with some of the richest European countries (Germany, France, UK etc.). Richest in the world, no, but Top 12 richest, I would think so.

I don’t see as these effeminate male pop idols as something as “doom of civilisation”.

These are business marketing towards women who are the consumers, not men.

So of course men don’t find that attractive it is not marketed at you in the first place.

Women as consumer in peacetime just like effeminate male idols. It is just women voting with dollars in their purse.

Beckham and Justin Bieber are just good examples.

When society is in distress, war, poverty and crime infested, women will be back favoring tough men.

 

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[Xeon]

My mom was recently in Miedzyzdroje

A side observation on Polish city names (and probably many Polish words when romancized in English), is that they're insanely hard to pronounce I can still pronouce Ukrainian/Russian words but Polish ones are next-level.

 

[K1 Lambo]

Most likely Candidate is China because they have the potential and also the execution ability to turn the potential into result.

Strong manufacturing and export always comes together with a rising power. UK, US, Germany and Japan in their respective time.

A lot of the Chinese made products are establishing themselves very fast in the higher end space as well.

You don’t see Russia and India capturing the waves of globalization in the 90s, IT waves in the 2000s and E-commerce wave in the 2010s as well as Chinese. All the top global companies are Either U.S. or Chinese. Russia and India have a lot of talents and they all end up working oversea for foreign companies.

These countries have their own politics and history and they don’t follow the left right dichotomy of the West.

The immediate problems of U.S. are pay back times for past mistakes. The problem with consumerism is that it shifted household assets into corporate earnings. On one hand I read household net asset after debt on average in U.S. is near zero, on the hand S&P is the best performing equity class for global investors so far. This is a political problem that is yet to be resolved.

The other issue is debt and cost of managing the U.S. led global system is unsustainable. The U.S. leadership brags that it has many friends and allies but financially this means a lot of liabilities and paying people to listen to U.S.

The challenge faced by Chinese will be that the bureaucracy will not let go of power. There is always fear that when the private sector gets too powerful and influential nobody needs the party and bureaucracy anymore.

That's actually a very fair point. The best and brightest talents of Russia and India live in foreign countries like the US or Canada whereas in China it's different since China keeps a lot of their smartest minds within the borders.

 

[K1 Lambo]

I don’t see as these effeminate male pop idols as something as “doom of civilisation”.

These are business marketing towards women who are the consumers, not men.

So of course men don’t find that attractive it is not marketed at you in the first place.

Women as consumer in peacetime just like effeminate male idols. It is just women voting with dollars in their purse.

Beckham and Justin Bieber are just good examples.

When society is in distress, war, poverty and crime infested, women will be back favoring tough men.

And women consume and spend more than men online. Statistics show that women drive 70-80% of all consumer purchases. Beauty is also a niche that will never disappear, people will always wanna look good.

 

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[K1 Lambo]

A side observation on Polish city names (and probably many Polish words when romancized in English), is that they're insanely hard to pronounce I can still pronouce Ukrainian/Russian words but Polish ones are next-level.

You'll learn it with practice .

 

[Kevin88660]

That's actually a very fair point. The best and brightest talents of Russia and India live in foreign countries like the US or Canada whereas in China it's different since China keeps a lot of their smartest minds within the borders.

The Chinese have a choice because there are good ecosystems in China where their talents could be put into good use.

Google vs Baidu. Facebook vs Douyin (Tiktok original version). Amazon vs Alibaba/JD.

The problem for European countries is that their market is too small to produce giant companies.

Apple and Samsung dominated high end smart phone market. But the next in the rank are all Chinese companies.

When it comes to new sectors such as renewable energy, drone mechanics and AI most of the investment are made by China and U.S.

India has the size, but literacy and infrastructure lags behind China.

China has its shortcomings that is the government basically killed off its own crypto industry through hard regulation. Like I said the bureaucracy is pro business until it could be a threat to them.

Everyone knows about Binance. Binance is founded by CZ who previously worked for OKEX. OKEX and Huobi were top crypto exchanges in China. CZ learnt about crypto exchange business through his experience in OKEX and poached the first group of Chinese engineers from OKEX and started the business in HongKong. Very few people remembered that Binance literally started as a Chinese offshot.

 

[David Fitz]

Ray Dalios recent book got me thinking United States is falling and China is rising.

 

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[Mathuin]

Kakistan

Heard it here first

 

[Xeon]

Beauty is also a niche that will never disappear, people will always wanna look good.

Off-topic: Anyone who is in the beauty niche and who can also make video content for that can consider looking into / getting into Xiaohongshu (Little RED Book). It's a Chinese social app like Pinterest with a bit of Instagram. Get a Chinese guy on Fiverr to translate your caption and hashtags to Chinese and start posting.

2021-2022 Xiaohongshu/RED user trends

Learn about the latest user trends and see the data for Xiaohongshu. Digital marketing ROI, RED-Tmall traffic case study and more

www.hicom-asia.com

Scroll down to Point 2 on the site to read the audience demographics data for this app.

 

[TheJon]

I speculate the US, I might be semi biased as a US citizen. Basically what I think we are looking for is what exactly happens after the period of free trade ends. The US has one of the only navies capable of huge force projection and after WW2 became the guarantor of trade peace. So let's say something happens like Russia invading Ukraine, and China invades Taiwan: global trade starts to fall apart, let's again estimate this will spiral and get worse as time goes on. Then at some point countries are forced to pull back production to their own land, what happens then?

Well I speculate the US, with easy access to the other America's will have a huge advantage. They could also continue to protect their own shipping lanes to some extent. Further the US is one of only a few developed countries that have a decent young population

I think there is a HUGE opportunity coming if one can reason this out and get ahead of it. You likely saw that post about the lack of warehouses in the US for example

 

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[JordanK]

Doesn't really matter if your population wear make up or not if they can out produce economically and design better weapons than other extremely masculine countries.

I think that has always been the strength of America. If you are talented and gifted in whatever field or sector nobody cares what you look like, where you come from or what you do in your own personal time.

People are fleeing Russia, people are fleeing China. We don't see people fleeing the US.

 

[sa_ill]

India is basically what China used to be 30-40 years ago.

I will have to disagree with this statement.

India and China are very different economies.

• China's economy is very much dependent on world trade whereas India's domestic economy is pretty solid, which is why India is recession proof.
• for every kilometer of 4 lane highways India has, China has 8
• for every hour an Indian works, a Chinese works 2.5 hours for the same output
• for every unit produced, China uses 1.8 unit of power whereas India uses 1

And the biggest difference:
most development and prosperity in India has come from individual efforts, whereas in China it is all state pushed. This makes India more sustainable in the long run.

 

[Anon3x156]

A country will never be a superpower in the modern world if it doesn't have a true and functioning democracy, if it doesn't value freedoms, human rights, capitalism and free market. The ones that bet on China or Russia will lose their money.

 

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