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The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

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Thank you for your concern. I talk to my family daily, everyone is still safe.

Being an immigrant is always hard. While today it's being Russian, yesterday it was being Chinese because of the pandemic. During WW2 it was being Jewish and it generally sucks being anything but white.

What I am trying to say, this is temporary for being Russian but permanent for being an immigrant. Don't let this challenge get to you and adapt as best as you can.

Russians are not he enemy, Putin is. Anyone who doesn't get this is an idiot. The best solution is to become successful (ideally in business, and being here bodes well for that). The bigger your success, the more dumbass people look past your "immigrant = inferior" status.
Happy to hear that they are all still safe. Just out of curiousity. You might have mentioned it before, but where are they located? I know my friends family is in Lviv, and so far it seems like one of the safest places?

Agree. I am not much at risk since I am more Western than Russian tbf. But even though I am better at my Western language than 99 % of the locals, they still see me as a Russian. You can never run away from your roots. You have probably experienced this as well.

Hoping for this to end soon!
 

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Interesting to see news reports that Biden has sent representatives to meet the Venezuelan government. Presumably to get access to their oil if the US & Europe decide to stop buying from the Russians. The previous administration sanctioned the Maduro government and recognized Juan Guaido as the new democratic president but obviously the Maduro government never fell. Looks like the US may reverse this position as a bigger and badder enemy has now appeared in Putin.
 
Interesting to see news reports that Biden has sent representatives to meet the Venezuelan government. Presumably to get access to their oil if the US & Europe decide to stop buying from the Russians. The previous administration sanctioned the Maduro government and recognized Juan Guaido as the new democratic president but obviously the Maduro government never fell. Looks like the US may reverse this position as a bigger and badder enemy has now appeared in Putin.
In the meantime Russian officials are visiting Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. This will be 'interesting' to follow.

Btw, is Conor really buying Chelsea?
 
We are having a debate as old as democracy.

I don't always agree with him, and I don't want to sit here and tell people what they should do with their lives. Still, regarding his commentary about society, the rights of countries vs the rights of individuals, and more generally the discussion about good vs evil, I stand with Black Dragon.

This is not spam. Our great grandfather's generation would have called this common sense.

We don't teach civics anymore. Most people here probably can't define the meaning of virtue without Google. If we ask people on here to describe their highest virtues, I'm guessing many them would talk about independence, or honesty, or love of family.

Or they'd say "life above all".

Ugh. How banal.

A citizenry who values life above all is the weakest citizenry. They're the ones most easily swayed because all they have to do is feel threatened and they will take the path of least resistance. They will place security above other values. They will stay silent. They will lay down their arms. They will fall in line.

You can hear their echoes in this thread. I believe they are in the minority here.

They forget or never knew that path of least resistance is the one in which evil flourishes most.

That's the exact recipe needed for the rise of tyranny.

Alternatively, a citizenry full of individuals who are only concerned about themselves or their family's needs is almost as weak because they will never coalesce into the unified force that can be dealt with on even a regional stage. Divided they will fall.

These are facts that echo through the ages. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

Those of you equating democracy to tyranny don't seem to understand the meaning of those words. You seem to be thinking that any form of government where you have a ruler over a populace is the same thing as tyranny. Just because you don't agree with your government doesn't mean you are ruled by a dictatorship.

Yes, it is hard to hear what Black Dragon has been saying. And if you take it point by point, you can try and feel more virtuous than he. Because if you're looking at the trees, then it is easy to see that life is better than death.

And this simplistic reasoning pervades debates in today's day and age. Debates based on memes. On tweets. Short concise sentences making points to score points, often stretching truths to incredulity. Face diapers are akin to slavery. Playing in the NBA is like slavery. Trump voters aren't fighting the racists in their own party - they must be racists themselves. In every political discussion if it goes on long enough, it's just a matter of time before somebody's accused of being a Nazi.

This simple-minded thinking is just arguing one tree at a time.

But I digress...

If you're looking at the forest, and you see BD's points in total, it is difficult to prove him wrong. He obviously has made a study of governance, civics, and what it means to be a nation.

Obviously, I'm not suggesting everything he said is right. Obviously, you definitely pay the ransom. You don't bomb Moscow. And I have no idea who this author philosopher guy from Russia is. So I'm not making a commentary of everything he said.

That would be talking about each tree and I agree a couple of his trees should be chopped down.

But he's got the right forest. I cannot dispute that.

Just look at the last time the world had no countries. What was our population? What is our population now?

Ergo, if you're trying to maximize human life, if that really is the highest value you have, if just the mere act of having bodies breathing is the ultimate goal, then countries is one of the best innovations in history for doing so.

That is so self evident that it shouldn't even be in dispute.

Countries allow for an allocation of resources that family units or tribes or city states can never hope to achieve. Innovation in art and science and philosophy have achieved a whole new level since the advent of countries.

This is why it's always important to learn. Some of you probably don't even realize that you're advocating going back to the stone ages. Our education system has been gutted.

More importantly, our family system has been gutted. These lessons are supposed to be handed down from father to son and father to son. But something has been lost in translation. Why?

Because good times create weak men.

And weak men like to say things like the government shouldn't be able to blah blah blah.

Now I believe there are at least a few people on this forum who truly live the ideal of individualism. They live off grid. They grow their own food. They have provided for their own defense. They don't ask for handouts from anybody.

And those men also like to say things like the government shouldn't be able to blah blah blah.

And when they come on to argue their anarcho-capitalistic views, I find it difficult to debate them, because they are living consistent to their values.

That's virtuous.

For that type, the debate is personal. I when I try discuss the role of society, they take it personally. And then it comes off like I'm trying to judge how they are living, when in actuality, I have a lot of respect for how they live. So I've learned that debating them is difficult.

The kumbaya life of the Anarcho capitalist only works if there are no Hitlers in the world. And the only way that happens is divine intervention.

The vast majority of us on this forum are not this type of person. Most people here benefit from society. We do not reject the benefits of society as those few born of sterner stock do.

So for many here, crying about a citizen's duty to society is hypocritical, imo. They want all of the benefits, and none of the responsibility.

That is a hallmark of the times we are living in. No duty to anyone but family. No sense of honor. n crying out for ultimate independence, without truly taking the requisite action to achieve it, these men have become slaves to their self.

If you can find some corner of the world that is peaceful, and peaceful for the rest of your life, go for it. Enjoy it. Thank God for it.

Even better, if you can make some corner of the world into this version of existence, without trampling on the rights of others, I applaud you for truly living.

For the rest, be prepared to understand the meaning of hard times make tough men.

Btw, I work with a lot of Indian, Arabic and African clients. And I have never experienced such a 'hate' towards the West as in this past week. This double standard morality and hypocricy is going to backfire.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious and I don't want to assume I know what you mean.

Are the clients in agreement with Russia? Or they hate the West's reaction because they think the West is just as bad? A little of both?

If anyone's interested, here's a website that does (in my opinion) spectacular analysis of the whole situation from a military perspective. Daily updates, minimal political angle. And maps!


Thank you for this share. I just glanced at a couple of the articles and I can tell I'm going to spend days reading this site.

I'm so happy you shared this. Which is weird to say, considering this whole site is about conflicts going on in the world. Anyways, thank you again.

Interesting to see news reports that Biden has sent representatives to meet the Venezuelan government. Presumably to get access to their oil if the US & Europe decide to stop buying from the Russians. The previous administration sanctioned the Maduro government and recognized Juan Guaido as the new democratic president but obviously the Maduro government never fell. Looks like the US may reverse this position as a bigger and badder enemy has now appeared in Putin.
These negotiations have been going on a while. I first read about them in October. It does appear to be a reversal on a policy shift of a few previous administrations.
 
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In the meantime Russian officials are visiting Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. This will be 'interesting' to follow.

Btw, is Conor really buying Chelsea?

Conor is a Man United supporter so I think it'd be weird for him to purchase Chelsea. I don't think he has the funds to do it anyways. Possibly as part of a larger consortium where he is a minority shareholder.

For example, I am a Liverpool FC supporter and Lebron owns 2% of the football club through an investment with FSG/New England Sports Ventures who are the majority shareholder. Many Americans will recognize them as the owners of the Boston Red Sox.

--

Also, to answer BizyDads question to Chapas I have also noticed that sentiment in the middle east. I have ties to Israel/Palestine and the Palestinians are confused as to why there is not the same level of support for their cause. I also have noticed Syrians who have been under Russian bombardment in cities like Aleppo for years are questioning this too. In Europe, millions of Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with complete open arms and a massive humanitarian effort across all of society, whereas walls went up to prevent Middle Eastern & African refugees. It has been noticeable that 99% of the Ukrainian refugees are women and children. Whereas a majority of the previous wave of refugees from the Syrian Civil War were men, probably due to the long and treacherous journey that was required.
 
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In Europe, millions of Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with complete open arms and a massive humanitarian effort across all of society, whereas walls went up to prevent Middle Eastern & African refugees. It has been noticeable that 99% of the Ukrainian refugees are women and children. Whereas a majority of the previous wave of refugees from the Syrian Civil War were men, probably due to the long and treacherous journey that was required.
Most of the African and Middle Eastern refugees are economic migrants. And this is a fact based on official definitions. If you move beyond the nearest safe country, then you're no longer a refugee. I mean they're traveling through five, six or more countries. If Western Europe wouldn't give out their social benefits, the migrant flow would end overnight.
 
The USA is an insane evil empire held together only by force, and will fall apart soon because no one will fight for it anymore.

Russia is expanding because sane and moral. Empires have life cycles like anything else. This life cycle is largely determined by the willingness and competence of its soldiers, not empty squawking.

I can't imagine why the Ukrainian Army isn't putting up a more inspired defense. Zelenskyy really knows how to rouse the troops.

Volodymyr Zelensky is dancing in heels.

What will be funny is watching Putin respond to Biden's posturing by recognizing Trump as legitimate president. This will demonstrate the difference between king, kingpin and pinhead.

I leave it to the reader to determine which is which.

The West's oligarchy opposes "populism" because it is the natural and brief Democratic segue between oligarchy and monarchy. Oligarchy-run education is apparently working well, since the top video on YouTube for "anaclyclosis" has a whopping 2,061 views. Congratulations, you are now one of the few humans on the planet with a historical perspective longer than your arm.

Anacyclosis
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OEYOjJhL-I


The video intelligently expands the original model. The US West is primarily plutocratic, with the USD the greatest foreigner-plundering mechanism ever devised. Why is xenophobia, a natural part of humanity's historical cycle, a forbidden taboo? Hmm, what say you, plutocrats? Perhaps that Ukraine is your sacred purchased preserve? Liberty indeed. Any man who won't die for the Dollar is simply un-American!
 
Most of the African and Middle Eastern refugees are economic migrants. And this is a fact based on official definitions. If you move beyond the nearest safe country, then you're no longer a refugee. I mean they're traveling through five, six or more countries. If Western Europe wouldn't give out their social benefits, the migrant flow would end overnight.

It's a little bit more complicated than that but it's definitely a factor.

Many speak English or French as secondary languages due to the colonial past of some of these countries. Why would you stop and live in Italy for example when you don't speak the language and need to find work immediately to survive. Also, due to the colonial past many have educational or family ties in European nations.

Neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey etc have already taken in millions of refugees so the opportunities in these countries are limited.
 
What the West needs is a cultural and philosophical revival.

What kind of "cultural and philosophical revival"? Not the colonialism kind I hope.


In my view, the Russian people have a moral duty and obligation to go out into the streets and demand the immediate resignation of Vladimir Putin.

He cannot arrest or kill all of you, the Russian people will prevail over Putin.

Lay down your weapons and go home, hide in the bunkers to preserve your life and your family's, Ukrainians! When there are fewer and fewer people to fight for your leader, who is safely tucked away in a bunker or fortified mansion, the war will end and the bombings will stop. Men will be able to reunite with their families who are lost and scared in other countries whom they seek refuge in. People can rebuild their homes and go back to their jobs. Hide Ukrainians, don't die for a war you cannot win! Zelensky will shed tears for you, only on TV!


Btw, I work with a lot of Indian, Arabic and African clients. And I have never experienced such a 'hate' towards the West as in this past week. This double standard morality and hypocricy is going to backfire.

Is it because of the Western countries' treatment of Indian, Arabic and African refugees? I read some news where many from these countries were prevented from crossing over to Poland, Moldova, Romania etc. The polish guards were beating the Indian students.

Surprisingly, western media didn't report this much.
 
So for many here, crying about a citizen's duty to society is hypocritical, imo. They want all of the benefits, and none of the responsibility.
That literally just described the person you're defending. I asked him what he's going to do. The answer I got was; nothing, just talk shit behind the keyboard about what Russia citizens should do against Putin and what Ukraine, Nato, and the US should do against Russia.

And ultimately, family, or rather, bloodline, is all that matters.
 
We are having a debate as old as democracy.

I don't always agree with him, and I don't want to sit here and tell people what they should do with their lives. Still, regarding his commentary about society, the rights of countries vs the rights of individuals, and more generally the discussion about good vs evil, I stand with Black Dragon.

This is not spam. Our great grandfather's generation would have called this common sense.

We don't teach civics anymore. Most people here probably can't define the meaning of virtue without Google. If we ask people on here to describe their highest virtues, I'm guessing many them would talk about independence, or honesty, or love of family.

Or they'd say "life above all".

Ugh. How banal.

A citizenry who values life above all is the weakest citizenry. They're the ones most easily swayed because all they have to do is feel threatened and they will take the path of least resistance. They will place security above other values. They will stay silent. They will lay down their arms. They will fall in line.

You can hear their echoes in this thread. I believe they are in the minority here.

They forget or never knew that path of least resistance is the one in which evil flourishes most.

That's the exact recipe needed for the rise of tyranny.

Alternatively, a citizenry full of individuals who are only concerned about themselves or their family's needs is almost as weak because they will never coalesce into the unified force that can be dealt with on even a regional stage. Divided they will fall.

These are facts that echo through the ages. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

Those of you equating democracy to tyranny don't seem to understand the meaning of those words. You seem to be thinking that any form of government where you have a ruler over a populace is the same thing as tyranny. Just because you don't agree with your government doesn't mean you are ruled by a dictatorship.

Yes, it is hard to hear what Black Dragon has been saying. And if you take it point by point, you can try and feel more virtuous than he. Because if you're looking at the trees, then it is easy to see that life is better than death.

And this simplistic reasoning pervades debates in today's day and age. Debates based on memes. On tweets. Short concise sentences making points to score points, often stretching truths to incredulity. Face diapers are akin to slavery. Playing in the NBA is like slavery. Trump voters aren't fighting the racists in their own party - they must be racists themselves. In every political discussion if it goes on long enough, it's just a matter of time before somebody's accused of being a Nazi.

This simple-minded thinking is just arguing one tree at a time.

But I digress...

If you're looking at the forest, and you see BD's points in total, it is difficult to prove him wrong. He obviously has made a study of governance, civics, and what it means to be a nation.

Obviously, I'm not suggesting everything he said is right. Obviously, you definitely pay the ransom. You don't bomb Moscow. And I have no idea who this author philosopher guy from Russia is. So I'm not making a commentary of everything he said.

That would be talking about each tree and I agree a couple of his trees should be chopped down.

But he's got the right forest. I cannot dispute that.

Just look at the last time the world had no countries. What was our population? What is our population now?

Ergo, if you're trying to maximize human life, if that really is the highest value you have, if just the mere act of having bodies breathing is the ultimate goal, then countries is one of the best innovations in history for doing so.

That is so self evident that it shouldn't even be in dispute.

Countries allow for an allocation of resources that family units or tribes or city states can never hope to achieve. Innovation in art and science and philosophy have achieved a whole new level since the advent of countries.

This is why it's always important to learn. Some of you probably don't even realize that you're advocating going back to the stone ages. Our education system has been gutted.

More importantly, our family system has been gutted. These lessons are supposed to be handed down from father to son and father to son. But something has been lost in translation. Why?

Because good times create weak men.

And weak men like to say things like the government shouldn't be able to blah blah blah.

Now I believe there are at least a few people on this forum who truly live the ideal of individualism. They live off grid. They grow their own food. They have provided for their own defense. They don't ask for handouts from anybody.

And those men also like to say things like the government shouldn't be able to blah blah blah.

And when they come on to argue their anarcho-capitalistic views, I find it difficult to debate them, because they are living consistent to their values.

That's virtuous.

For that type, the debate is personal. I when I try discuss the role of society, they take it personally. And then it comes off like I'm trying to judge how they are living, when in actuality, I have a lot of respect for how they live. So I've learned that debating them is difficult.

The kumbaya life of the Anarcho capitalist only works if there are no Hitlers in the world. And the only way that happens is divine intervention.

The vast majority of us on this forum are not this type of person. Most people here benefit from society. We do not reject the benefits of society as those few born of sterner stock do.

So for many here, crying about a citizen's duty to society is hypocritical, imo. They want all of the benefits, and none of the responsibility.

That is a hallmark of the times we are living in. No duty to anyone but family. No sense of honor. n crying out for ultimate independence, without truly taking the requisite action to achieve it, these men have become slaves to their self.

If you can find some corner of the world that is peaceful, and peaceful for the rest of your life, go for it. Enjoy it. Thank God for it.

Even better, if you can make some corner of the world into this version of existence, without trampling on the rights of others, I applaud you for truly living.

For the rest, be prepared to understand the meaning of hard times make tough men.



Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious and I don't want to assume I know what you mean.

Are the clients in agreement with Russia? Or they hate the West's reaction because they think the West is just as bad? A little of both?



Thank you for this share. I just glanced at a couple of the articles and I can tell I'm going to spend days reading this site.

I'm so happy you shared this. Which is weird to say, considering this whole site is about conflicts going on in the world. Anyways, thank you again.


These negotiations have been going on a while. I first read about them in October. It does appear to be a reversal on a policy shift of a few previous administrations.
If you pay people enough there will be people risking your lives to fight for you.

Retired Tier one soldiers can get as high as 1-2k usd per day in war zone countries. They joined as contractors as they get better paid than military men in uniform.

American public is tired of getting into wars with no clear national interest and hearing stories of vet suicide from mental illness and inability to adjust back to civilian life.



So where did the money go?

This Ukrainian administration deserves to fail.

Community value will survive only when the social contract is not broken. That if you fight for the community the community also takes care of you when you need it. It works two way.
 
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@BizyDad - I went back and forth with @Black_Dragon43 here. So I will answer, just so my stance is clear.

Putin is in the wrong. Yes, I am for democracy, and ideally, I want the whole world to live in a peaceful democracy.

And I will also call out our hypocrisy and our double standard.

I don't know what should be done to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. However, let's remember that, we, the West has been many times an aggressor without being accountable. In addition, they are other similar conflicts that haven't gotten a similar level of coverage and where we have not intervened. So let's not act too sanctuous. A big part of what is happening here is because it is Russia, not because it is an attack on our system of values.

Pointing out our wrongs is also part of our role as citizens.
 
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Why isn't Bitcoin going up with all these financial sanctions on Russia? Every time a payment processor shuts out Russia, it seems like that would be an advertisement for crypto. If Russia and China were using BTC, they could tell Paypal, Mastercard, Visa, Amex, SWIFT, and the USD, to go pound sand. It's held up better than the Ruble.
 
Why isn't Bitcoin going up with all these financial sanctions on Russia? Every time a payment processor shuts out Russia, it seems like that would be an advertisement for crypto. If Russia and China were using BTC, they could tell Paypal, Mastercard, Visa, Amex, SWIFT, and the USD, to go pound sand. It's held up better than the Ruble.
It already went up but retraced back somewhat.
 
Why isn't Bitcoin going up with all these financial sanctions on Russia? Every time a payment processor shuts out Russia, it seems like that would be an advertisement for crypto. If Russia and China were using BTC, they could tell Paypal, Mastercard, Visa, Amex, SWIFT, and the USD, to go pound sand. It's held up better than the Ruble.
The governments have little interest in that. The Chinese alternative to SWIFT is a lot easier to control and profit from. Russia has to worry about money leaving the country. I think a crackdown on Bitcoin is more likely.
 
Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious and I don't want to assume I know what you mean.

Are the clients in agreement with Russia? Or they hate the West's reaction because they think the West is just as bad? A little of both?
The other guys did a good job on explaining some of the issues here. But let me try to elaborate.

I do not think that this is so much in agreement with Russia. Because most people do not agree with invasions and just want peace. It is more the hypocracy.

People from Middle East have experienced this countless times. How many times have the Western Media demonized their countries and their people? Making them all feel like terrorists? Just like the Russians are being demonized now. There is a huge segregation in society in Europe. We are so divided, and now I understand why. The media is to blame for a lot of it.

Many people in the Middle East tend to have issues with the West. Especially due to how the US have bombed their countries throughout the last 20-30 years. Also many people are very preoccupied by the Palestinian case. And they cannot believe how in the world the whole world (sorry, the whole West) is suddenly becoming Ukrainian fanatics and nobody cares about Palestinians. They also cannot believe the world going absolutely bonkers about the sufferings in Ukraine which is just fractions of the sufferings in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. This double standard moral have been absolutely exposed now.

In Denmark all refugees arriving gets confiscated values above 1500 euros by the police. This law was just changed so this does not include the Ukrainian refugees. So only brown and black people will get confiscated their valuables. I assume that this story is the same all over Europe. White refugees good. Black/Brown refugees bad. I have been a refugee for 2 years when I was a kid, so I know how it feels and feel sorry for all of them.

India and Pakistan have their own reasons. Pakistan don't want to condemn Russia, because the West doesn't want to condemn their enemy over the Kashmir conflict. India as far as I believe have the same view. Plus as far as I have been told then Ukraine has sold a massive amount of tanks to Pakistan. So they cannot support a country that helps killing their own people.

Don't even get me started about Africa. That continent has been through that much, and nobody gives a shit. Africa's fault is that most countries lack oil and they are not neighbouring Russia. The West has already drained the continent for all resources.

Btw, regarding the refugee situation. Zelensky released a bunch of inmates in order to fight against the Russians. I am just thinking. What would I do as a released criminal? Would I go fight for a government that locked me up? Or would I try to take advantage of the situation and escape as a refugee? (I am aware that men are not allowed to leave, but a criminal will find his way)

Combined that with some parties in the Danish government actually also want to take in deserted Russian soldiers, we can be in for a treat here. A bunch of Ukrainian inmates and insane Chechen soldiers on the loose in Western Europe. Crazy times ahead if that happens.

Anyone wants to split the cost for a spaceship out of this planet, please?
 
Btw just want to state that I am a Russian born who grew up in a Western European country. I spent all my life amongst the locals, and actually didn't know any other Russians untill I was around 22-23 years old (except from my family of course, haha).

I am not a fan of Putin. My wife and her family hates him as his government has closed down many businesses of theirs. Just so you know that I am not spewing Russian propaganda here.

But I am definitely not a fan of double moral standards and hypocricy - and this is what I am trying to call out.

Also through friends and family in Russia I know how the media and the government works. And honestly I am getting scared. Not because of Russia. But because that I see the same tendencies in our media and governments the last couple of years. Normal people can't see it. But when you have seen it from the other side, you see the trend.

I am just happy being part of this forum where we all can discuss different points of views without getting offended and calling each other ugly things.
 
View attachment 42332I noticed he has been suspiciously absent from the conversation, but can someone get @theag on the phone and ask him to stop? I know that he is the most aggressive guy on the planet, but I think everyone here is getting tired of his bullshit invasion...
Yea, busy times..
 
I argued for bombing key military targets in Moscow as a warning to Putin in a specific context at the start of the thread. I never suggested bombing civilian areas of Moscow, or starting a conflict. The way such attacks are carried is that they're usually telegraphed to the other side so that they can remove their soldiers. All it does is show that we're going to oppose resistance.

I know that you never suggested bombing civilian areas of Moscow. I think one thing we all have in common in here is that we just want peace.
 
Some key finding from further reading (geopolitical)

-Russian hardliner made up by the Silovik faction is pushing for these military actions
-Putin has been more of the moderate who cared about trade with Europe (seen as weak by the Silovik) until recently been swayed by the hardliner.
-Silovik personal is made up by the Russian equivalent of Pentagon and CIA
-From the hardliner point of view 2014 should have launched the full attack to cripple Ukraine and now it is kind of later as Ukraine has built up a sizable defence conducted anti-Russian propaganda
-Russian military claimed to have found evidence that Ukraine was researching on bioweapon and nuclear weapon.


So in my opinion the entire narrative that Putin has gone mad is a wrong assessment by the English speaking world. Let us say if Putin dies he will be likely replaced by a hardliner since they are in control of the key decision making now in Kremlin.

Some key financial development
-Putin announced to repay foreign debt in ruble.
(That’s default in my opinion, default but pretending to be not a default)
-Russian stocks continued to be non-trade-able in NYSE and LSE. MOEX is closed down entirely.
-LSE russian stocks at significant discount (last traded price) compared to MOEX.

I wonder how LSE is going to fix the mess with the russian stocks. Because the shorts have huge positions which They cannot cover despite in tremendous paper gain. Seems a huge short covering is coming.

Putin said that “sanctioning is an act of war”. I think the financial impact and degree of sanction has gone beyond the stress test that the Russian government has prepared in advance. There will be likely more financial chaos to come.

It seems to me that Russian and Western powers would like to keep the situation contained. However thing could still go put of control due to

1) Ukraine has nothing to lose and wants to drag more parties in and escalate as much as possible

2) Given that the public in the west is heavily pro-Ukraine, this could create short term political pressure to test the water
 
It's a little bit more complicated than that but it's definitely a factor.

Many speak English or French as secondary languages due to the colonial past of some of these countries. Why would you stop and live in Italy for example when you don't speak the language and need to find work immediately to survive. Also, due to the colonial past many have educational or family ties in European nations.
I doubt they all speak German and Swedish... The question of "why would they stop" is already preposterous. What gives them the right to illegally and often times very violently (remember Polish border?) cross the border. This is a criminal offense. There is no human right to get citizenship in any country that you wish to live in. You have to apply like everybody else does. I also doubt that "many" have family ties to Europe... The majority don't have any ties to Europe. Maybe they should just all go to the US, the initiator of all these wars in the Middle East. Why should Europe take all the slack for US adventures? (I know some were involved, but not all, and to a much smaller extent.)

Neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey etc have already taken in millions of refugees so the opportunities in these countries are limited.
You can help 1000x more people by supporting them financially in these countries than in Europe because everything is cheaper there. Turkey bought oil from ISIS, so they had it coming anyways. It's just nuts to welcome millions upon millions from the whole world. In 50 years the same thing will happen like in Ukraine, i.e. a conflict along ethnic lines.
 
So who here has actually put money on something happening because of this war?

I don't want to know exactly what you're doing (keep your specific idea to yourself), but I'd like to know what outcomes are actually convincing enough that someone actually risked something over it rather than just armchair speculating.
 
So who here has actually put money on something happening because of this war?

I don't want to know exactly what you're doing (keep your specific idea to yourself), but I'd like to know what outcomes are actually convincing enough that someone actually risked something over it rather than just armchair speculating.
I filled my oil tank before the price goes up even further. FWIW it's double the price it was in November.


And I'm stocking up on and growing food. Because, you know, impending food crisis...
 

Disgusting.
 
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