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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

MJ DeMarco

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Markets down hard, looks like the markets haven't believed an ounce of the spin as another 40 year inflation high has been achieved.
 

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I feel vindicated. I am up 0.18% today. And, somehow, I am positive this year too.
 
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socaldude

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Markets down hard, looks like the markets haven't believed an ounce of the spin as another 40 year inflation high has been achieved.

I’m a big silver collector and one of my favorite things to do when I am in Mexico is to buy some 1oz silver libertads that they sell in Banco Azteca.
They’ve had a moratorium on the sale of the coins for over a year now. That tells me they are long silver. And somehow inflation has peaked?
 
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YanC

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I’m a big silver collector and one of my favorite things to do when I am in Mexico is to buy some 1oz silver libertads that they sell in Banco Azteca.
They’ve had a moratorium on the sale of the coins for over a year now. That tells me they are long silver. And somehow inflation has peaked?
I've been thinking about opening a long position in silver for the past few weeks. It may have a nice run to catch up with the valuation of gold. How would you do it besides buying physical silver (I already own physical gold) ? I'm used to selling puts the MJ way, or rather buying calls ?
 

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I've been thinking about opening a long position in silver for the past few weeks. It may have a nice run to catch up with the valuation of gold. How would you do it besides buying physical silver (I already own physical gold) ? I'm used to selling puts the MJ way, or rather buying calls ?

As you undoubtedly already know, this is no substitute for owning the physical bullion, but…

You can buy SLV and even trade covered calls on it.

My biggest position is reserved for GLD and trade the wheel on it. I sell a lot of covered calls and cash secured puts. You could do the same with SLV.
 
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I've been thinking about opening a long position in silver for the past few weeks. It may have a nice run to catch up with the valuation of gold. How would you do it besides buying physical silver (I already own physical gold) ? I'm used to selling puts the MJ way, or rather buying calls ?

PSLV, physical bullion, or a swiss vault company like GoldAvenue.

Or, mining stocks. ETFs like SLVP, SIL, SILJ.

I like to diversify between all of these.
 
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socaldude

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How would you do it besides buying physical silver (I already own physical gold) ?

Selling puts is technically the least risk to get exposure to some long deltas.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Looks like it’s gonna be a rough day tomorrow, strap yourself in for the ride!
 

BD64

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Wednesday is another big day, Fed comes out with another rate hike and hints at their future plans
 
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[Edit: ^ You beat me] :playful:


Wednesday/Thursday may lead to headaches. Expected rate hike with Fed meeting on June 15th.
 

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No idea when this sell-off will end. I've read that due to "internet time", whatever happens might not take as long as it use to, so a 2 year bear-market might get compressed in to 1 year (and possibly less).
 

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schuldenkrise_2022.jpg
This is a topic that supposedly will be more prominent in the news, soon.

The short version: remember the EU debt crisis? What we see here are the yields of European treasury bonds (Greece, Spain, Italy and Germany). Basically things were okayish recently, because the European Central Bank has bought bonds under a "whatever it takes" policy, which they have announced they will no longer do (because they can't afford to).

Now yields are exploding. At these levels, given the level of debt of these countries, we are definitely looking at the start of the next debt crisis. The ECB would have to keep buying to keep yields in check, but then inflation would get worse which would also mean game over for the EU economy.

Not sure if there is actionable advice in there. I suppose one should not bet on the Euro right now.
I also think it makes sense to take a closer look at articles that cover anything the ECB says and does in the near future.
They will have to do ... something. WIll be interesting to see what they come up with.
 
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YanC

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Not sure if there is actionable advice in there.
Borrow in EUR against cash-flowing assets. Gold. Stocks of companies that make money worldwide and have nothing to do with the government. USD and CHF outside of the EU juridiction and only the bare minimum in EUR. I once had a position in Chinese bonds but sold a while ago as I couldn't get around having money dependent on the CCP (they have been performing greatly though so far). These are my plays...
 

MJ DeMarco

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Two-year yields reached 3.34%, the highest since December 2007, 5-year yields rose to 3.509%, the highest since July 2008, Benchmark 10-year yields hit 3.44%, the highest since April 2011.

Interesting, what was going on economically 2007-2008?
 

MJ DeMarco

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Those of you waiting for housing prices to stabilize and perhaps decline will finally get their wish.


Question is, will prices stabilize, or start to go lower?

These types of rates will definitely thin out the buyers and create less of a stampede.
 
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fastlane_dad

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Those of you waiting for housing prices to stabilize and perhaps decline will finally get their wish.


Question is, will prices stabilize, or start to go lower?

These types of rates will definitely thin out the buyers and create less of a stampede.
Some quick math is every 1% increase in interest rates drops the amount of home you can purchase by 10%. So a 3% or so increase drops the amount of home by 30%. You are now talking a considerably DIFFERENT type of home (smaller, not remodeled, missing a lot of amenities), or an entirely different neighborhood.

Given that 25% or so of recent buyers have been all cash - it will still remain to be seen which way the market heads.

All I know is that I havent seen THIS amount of inventory in MY and the SURROUNDING zip codes (3-4X the homes I saw at the low end months back) in Scottsdale in quite some time. And many more homes starting to show 'reductions' in price on the daily. Perhaps the top has been reached for a bit of time?
 

Andreas Thiel

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View attachment 43964
This is a topic that supposedly will be more prominent in the news, soon.

The short version: remember the EU debt crisis? What we see here are the yields of European treasury bonds (Greece, Spain, Italy and Germany). Basically things were okayish recently, because the European Central Bank has bought bonds under a "whatever it takes" policy, which they have announced they will no longer do (because they can't afford to).

Now yields are exploding. At these levels, given the level of debt of these countries, we are definitely looking at the start of the next debt crisis. The ECB would have to keep buying to keep yields in check, but then inflation would get worse which would also mean game over for the EU economy.

Not sure if there is actionable advice in there. I suppose one should not bet on the Euro right now.
I also think it makes sense to take a closer look at articles that cover anything the ECB says and does in the near future.
They will have to do ... something. WIll be interesting to see what they come up with.
Apparently there is a "new anti-fragmentation instrument" ... ignore what I wrote - they got this :happy: .


Commentary I just read says that the market will try to call the bluff (the article mentioned Mike Shedlock of Sidka Capital Management as an example).

Some articles assume that it can only be a Eurobond:
Mike Shedlock doubts that this will happen: View: https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/1538988091251183616

But IDK ... maybe the WAR means the spoilt Germans will just HAVE TO show some solidarity for a change.

Lagarde did not "want to reveal any details regarding the bond buying tool", so at least we know that it would be a bond buying tool.
 

srodrigo

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Guest-5ty5s4

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@MJ DeMarco @MoneyDoc @YanC I have shares in this company called Kenon Holdings (KEN) that just dropped by over 20% today due to a capital reduction distribution. Is this like a special dividend? Just wondering if y'all know what this means. I thought this was a great investment, but that 20% drop was...spicy!
 

MJ DeMarco

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@MJ DeMarco @MoneyDoc @YanC I have shares in this company called Kenon Holdings (KEN) that just dropped by over 20% today due to a capital reduction distribution. Is this like a special dividend? Just wondering if y'all know what this means. I thought this was a great investment, but that 20% drop was...spicy!

You should get that reduction back in the form of a dividend added to your account, usually a few weeks later. If it is classified as a dividend, it will be a taxable event, although "capital reduction distribution" sounds like a Return of Capital, which means (as far as I remember) it isn't a taxable event. Bottomline, it results in a net neutral, a wash.
 

YanC

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The Fed Hasn't Fixed Its Worst Blunder Since the 1970s

Monetary policy during the great inflation was not inert; it was just ineffectual — not so much a stairway as a game of snakes and ladders. At first in the 1960s, in Meltzer’s words, Fed staff and some board members “denied for several years that inflation had either begun or increased. They did not deny the numbers they saw … [but] gave special explanations … in effect claiming that the rise in the price level resulted from one-time, transitory changes that they did not expect to repeat.” (My emphasis on “transitory.”)

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes...
 
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socaldude

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History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes...

I’m no economist or expert on the Fed but Yellen and Powell are the worst Fed chairs of all time.
 

MJ DeMarco

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The quarter ended today.

It was the WORST first half of a year since 1970.... 52 years, down 21%.

A time when teenagers when getting killed in Vietnam.

The good news is, I haven't seen a "This 38 year old couple retired early because they've ate Ramen most of their lives while living in their parent's backyard toolshed!" article in a few months.
 
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loop101

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If Biden is able to tax unrealized gains at 20% for anyone making over $100M, do you think the $100M number will eventually go lower?
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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If Biden is able to tax unrealized gains at 20% for anyone making over $100M, do you think the $100M number will eventually go lower?
Yes, and this is the first step to confiscation IMO. That’s not a tax, that’s just seizing the means of production / stealing unsold assets
 

jdm667

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Yes, and this is the first step to confiscation IMO. That’s not a tax, that’s just seizing the means of production / stealing unsold assets
Yup. Eventually, there will be no income limit for this unrealized capital gains tax.

After the government gets a one-time taste of that extra revenue, it won't be enough.

They will start taking that percentage every year (e.g. a wealth tax), just like cities get real estate taxes every year.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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I am pretty sure you are right, Powell especially. Look at this asset purchasing chart lol.


View attachment 44254
The forced lockdowns and destroyed productivity, destroyed demand, etc. played a big role. People will say it was "the pandemic," but that really misses the big picture. Governments shot the economy in the face.
 

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