Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[MJ DeMarco]

Amazon took its first quarterly loss in years due to its Rivian acquisition... stock down 12+% ... time to buy?

I don't see Amazon going bankrupt anytime soon and it is so much a staple of every day life for many.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Andreas Thiel]

Coal is also seeing margin calls now. Could get ugly.

---

Since this is the "Chat About The Latest Market Action" thread, another random thing that some people might want to consider:

Amazon is seeing a boost right now. I'd be careful there. Cash flow wasn't great. The last earnings call was exceptional mostly because of the book value of their Rivian stake at the end of the reporting period. The next earnings call should be exceptional in the opposite direction. Doesn't seem priced in the way it should be.

It was possible to see that coming.
Buying in now might be okay, but the 5 year chart looks brutal, might want to see a solid bottom forming first?

Don't really have the understanding of the subject to fact check this, but I heard that the free cash flow of Amazon has been declining for a while. In the mainstream, they are now discussing that the costs associated with warehouses are a problem. I would look into that before getting in.
I can imagine a IBM like situation where we see yearly updates about turnaround plans that never quite manifest. They were also in no danger of going bankrupt, but upside potential was an issue.

Sure, the biggest hit they took was Rivian related. If Rivian does okay, then the media will report surprise billions on the plus side again.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Amazon took its first quarterly loss in years due to its Rivian acquisition... stock down 12+% ... time to buy?

I don't see Amazon going bankrupt anytime soon and it is so much a staple of every day life for many.

Initially I only thought about the financial coverage ... but then I wondered if Amazon has become a prime example of what greedy businesses that don't put customers first and are about to lose their productocracy status / bonus soon. You think their positioning and lack of competition lets them get away with all the amount of bullshit that they dish out? Only cheap Chinese products in the spotlight, search finding only stuff you are not searching for / interested in, Amazon being greedy with their Amazon Basics brands etc.? Would have guessed you'd take any bet against them based on your books.

 

[YanC]

The Popping of the Bubble Stocks: An Update

Here's an interesting take on current market conditions from Ray Dalio.

TL;DR:

What one chooses to do with this is a tactical decision. While the reversal has been significant, discounting of future earnings remains somewhat high compared to history. And either way, bubbles more often overcorrect (sell off more than the fundamentals would suggest) versus just settling back to normal levels.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

The Popping of the Bubble Stocks: An Update

Here's an interesting take on current market conditions from Ray Dalio.

TL;DR:

Another take...

Basically stated that conditions indicate that the bubble has already popped, just a matter of how much further it declines as "pops" tend to overcorrect. To be honest, I'm a bit shocked that was his analysis. I think the market can continue to slide south for another year or two.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Amazon took its first quarterly loss in years due to its Rivian acquisition... stock down 12+% ... time to buy?

I don't see Amazon going bankrupt anytime soon and it is so much a staple of every day life for many.

time to sell a put!

...if only I had $200k or so sitting in my brokerage account

I learned everything backwards.

 

[fastlanedoll]

Another take...

Basically stated that conditions indicate that the bubble has already popped, just a matter of how much further it declines as "pops" tend to overcorrect. To be honest, I'm a bit shocked that was his analysis. I think the market can continue to slide south for another year or two.

year before presidential election usually bullish, no? my personal bet is it will bottom by the end of this year

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

Interesting day in the markets...

Stocks are down big and has swallowed up all of yesterday's gains, and then some.

Crypto is also down big.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Am I the only one who thinks Rocket Mortgage looks insanely undervalued?

 

[ZF Lee]

Interesting day in the markets...

Stocks are down big and has swallowed up all of yesterday's gains, and then some.

Crypto is also down big.

Something interesting I read from Future Money Trend's email:



So I guess the powers-above forgot to coordinate the financial policy in tandem?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Silverfox148]

Another take...

Basically stated that conditions indicate that the bubble has already popped, just a matter of how much further it declines as "pops" tend to overcorrect. To be honest, I'm a bit shocked that was his analysis. I think the market can continue to slide south for another year or two.

I've seen some of the financial/economic wizards predict the same thing such as Raoul Paul. They believe the bubble has already popped and in fact we are already working our way out of the recession. Their reasoning seems to be that with rising interest rates the US is in a golden place and the rest of the world especially Europe is screwed.

This is is very wishful thinking, the structural problems with inflation/housing/energy will have to be first worked out including here in the USA. We have not even seen demand destruction yet which I believe is around the corner.

 

[socaldude]

Uncommon for futures to be down this much this early in the session. Bitcoin down too. Will we see the next leg down in the bear market? I figured we would at least see a 300 point reflex rally LOL.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Interesting: The S&P has dipped below 400 intraday and that this slide has been slow and preciptious. I lived through 1999's market decline as an investor and this feels a lot like it.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Speculatooor]

This artificial bear market is created to curb inflation, because they had to do something about it.

How long until the FED reverses course and start QE infinity back up again?

Raising interest rates =
- high debt services for US GOV debt
- people abandoning bonds -> high debt service for US GOV to bond holders
- assets prices declining -> lower tax revenue for US GOV
- stock market declining -> bad for employment, pensions, etc.

I don't see how they would push this more than politically needed to 'fight' inflation

 

[ZF Lee]

Interesting: The S&P has dipped below 400 intraday and that this slide has been slow and preciptious. I lived through 1999's market decline as an investor and this feels a lot like it.

I feel sorry for the folks from my Malaysian Bursa who ran to US market last year because of its greens...only to get slaughtered even worse than when they stayed on with our commodities-based stocks.

I suddenly realised most of my Telegram trading groups I join are getting quieter or shutting down. The other eerie thing is that I find my usual entrepreneur haunts like even this Forum are a little quieter too.

I'm wondering how to look at all these. On one hand, the good thing is that if traders can survive these times and maybe even learn how to trade through...they can learn lots-- far better than those who just ran away.

On the other hand, the buy-and-hold mental model is gonna clash with the trading mindset.

It feels easier to just say, 'Oh, lemme make my millions with the Fastlane and just don't bother about the markets.' Thing is, the markets are a huge pillar of the capitalism system and runs our paycheck pots...so I don't think I can hide my head in the sand.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I suddenly realised most of my Telegram trading groups I join are getting quieter or shutting down.

Yes, when the WallStreetBets Reddit forum disappears or is graveyarded it will symbolize a BOTTOM.

To be honest, that's how I'm gauging market tops and bottoms -- when all these retail stock traders lose their shirts and stop trading. This happened in 1999-2000 -- everyone was day-trading. By 2002, no one was left.

It marked a great time to buy.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[ZF Lee]

Yes, when the WallStreetBets Reddit forum disappears or is graveyarded it will symbolize a BOTTOM.

To be honest, that's how I'm gauging market tops and bottoms -- when all these retail stock traders lose their shirts and stop trading. This happened in 1999-2000 -- everyone was day-trading. By 2002, no one was left.

It marked a great time to buy.

The REAL r/WSB folks with more sound trading chops moved away to a private subreddit.

But the public subreddit is now just filled with half-eaten bear predictions, next to zero gains/loss porn posts and just stale memes. I guess we are floating thru between disillusionment and capitulation.

 

[The Autobahn]

There are 4 phases of the Stockmarket:
accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown
With that said we are in some markdown phase.

I know in real life few successful Daytraders and some of their strategies were working at certain times. The Stockmarket is also very difficult to reach Fastlane , the Trader must adapt to the Market and stay disciplined.

Yes you can make a Million in a day with certain circumstances and a big account, but the real difficulty is not to give back.
Easier said than done.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

There are 4 phases of the Stockmarket:
accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown
With that said we are in some markdown phase.

I know in real life few successful Daytraders and some of their strategies were working at certain times. The Stockmarket is also very difficult to reach Fastlane , the Trader must adapt to the Market and stay disciplined.

Yes you can make a Million in a day with certain circumstances and a big account, but the real difficulty is not to give back.
Easier said than done.

it is a very messy way to make your money, and definitely violates the commandment of Control.

also violates the commandment of Entry, unless you are starting with a giant, whopping pile of cash.

Need is always there, yes and no. Time and scale are obviously good.

Best used as a money system, like MJ says in the books.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[jethro]

There are 4 phases of the Stockmarket:
accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown
With that said we are in some markdown phase.

I know in real life few successful Daytraders and some of their strategies were working at certain times. The Stockmarket is also very difficult to reach Fastlane , the Trader must adapt to the Market and stay disciplined.

Yes you can make a Million in a day with certain circumstances and a big account, but the real difficulty is not to give back.
Easier said than done.

I've always considered what I do/use daily. I fly a ton for work, both domestically and internationally.... the airlines are packed! It wasn't that way last summer or earlier. Airlines are returning... just time for the stock to reflect this. I still buy a ton online.. care to guess from who? I'll jump on that 20-1 stock split thank you!

 

[Dangerous Donna]

I'm not much for discussing opinions or making predictions, I'd rather just make my bets and see how the chips fall. I will say my top 10 industries by exposure (50% of portfolio) are currently:

Specialty Retail

Oil & Gas E&P

Trucking

Education & Training Services

Furnishings Fixtures & Appliances

Residential Construction

Apparel Retail

Oil & Gas Midstream

Diagnostics & Research

Specialty Industrial Machinery

Chemicals

My top 10 positions by exposure (32% of portfolio) are:

AZO, PTSI, SMP, MMI, PFE, WHR, HI, HPQ, TOL, CNH

I agree. My top positions XOM, DVN, JPM, OXY , PDBC

 

[Greg Behnke]

If you look at this chart and know anything about technical analysis, you can see where this is going. Only thing that can stop it is fed intervention.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Black_Mamba_427]

I'm still feeling confident about long term BTC, so I'm still accumulating there, same with Eth.

Other than that I'm in GME - waiting for the MOASS - which I feel confident about too.

Will be DCAing down. I'm sure there will be a big a$$ crash due this year. One of the hedgefund guys (forgot his name) predicted a further 50% drop from here over the next 5 months.

Have you guys read about the darkpool manipulation tactics and the mass shorting of stocks happening? If I put my tin foil hat on, I'd say that the stocks are crashing not from retail, but from the hedgefunds like citadel looking to close their positions.

Still keeping cash aside mostly, as I'm planning on upgrading house in the next 12 months (which I'm sure from an investment perspective is a really dumb thing to do - if house prices drop 40% or so, or interest rates shoot up.

 

[The Autobahn]

A successful trader has more wins than losses, that's the game.
I recommend reading the following investing books; Trading in the Zone and reminiscences of a stock operator.

it is a very messy way to make your money, and definitely violates the commandment of Control.

also violates the commandment of Entry, unless you are starting with a giant, whopping pile of cash.

Need is always there, yes and no. Time and scale are obviously good.

Best used as a money system, like MJ says in the books.

Yes that`s true, also a giant pile of cash won`t save you from huge mistakes/losses.. see recently Tiger Capital and Cathie Woods ARKK. But they are other leagues in terms of Cash...
Also a Fastlane to loose Money, when (mostly leveraged and in the wrong direction) how about 20 billion in 2 days ? That happend few months ago to Bill Hwang.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

A successful trader has more wins than losses, that's the game.
I recommend reading the following investing books; Trading in the Zone and reminiscences of a stock operator.


Yes that`s true, also a giant pile of cash won`t save you from huge mistakes/losses.. see recently Tiger Capital and Cathie Woods ARKK. But they are other leagues in terms of Cash...
Also a Fastlane to loose Money, when (mostly leveraged and in the wrong direction) how about 20 billion in 2 days ? That happend few months ago to Bill Hwang.

Ah, you misunderstand Cathie Wood and ARKK.

If you read Unscripted you will know that these are not "traders."

They make their money off of AUM. Returns? "We don't need no stinkin' returns!" - except as far as they are used as marketing to get more investors in our fund.

That's the fastlane. When you see it, you can't unsee it.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Andreas Thiel]

I'm still feeling confident about long term BTC, so I'm still accumulating there, same with Eth.

Other than that I'm in GME - waiting for the MOASS - which I feel confident about too.

Will be DCAing down. I'm sure there will be a big a$$ crash due this year. One of the hedgefund guys (forgot his name) predicted a further 50% drop from here over the next 5 months.

Have you guys read about the darkpool manipulation tactics and the mass shorting of stocks happening? If I put my tin foil hat on, I'd say that the stocks are crashing not from retail, but from the hedgefunds like citadel looking to close their positions.

Still keeping cash aside mostly, as I'm planning on upgrading house in the next 12 months (which I'm sure from an investment perspective is a really dumb thing to do - if house prices drop 40% or so, or interest rates shoot up.

I think there is something very fishy going on with fails to deliver, but what Superstonkers and WallStreetBetters think is mostly rubbish.
Became apparent to me when they ignored the inconvenient parts of "Naked, Short and Greedy" altogether and went "what does she know" on the only real expert on their side.

Covered some of my thoughts there: INVESTING - HOT! - Reddit r/WSB bankrupts Hedge Fund using Robinhood (last two pages)

That said, I think when you consider how many billions in fails to deliver there are in government bonds and the role that fails to deliver played in getting leverage going in the housing bubble (credit default swaps and mortgage backed securities) I think those might have a huge impact on the market and where money flows in general. Might even be part of an endgame. In the stock market, I think prices are a little suppressed and several companies are under attack, but the mechanisms that apes bet on ("Citadel will have to sell at any price yadayada") are mostly fabrications, maybe a trap for retail traders.

 

[Chrisbal]

What is FOMC? CPI? EOD? Please explain I don't understand!

Thanks for start this thread MJ!

Interesting past two days in the markets.

Interesting Powell testimony also. Surprised markets went up. Seems like all the hawkish "what ifs" are being priced in as we speak. I think what really eased some investors was the fact that Powell said "we just started to discuss balance sheet sell offs and these types of decisions usually take 3-4 FOMC meetings". This was the only thing unknown in the minutes which caused that huge dip last week.

I personally don't think CPI will have a big effect, if any, tomorrow. Some people must know the number already and EOD closed strong and futures are looking okay but vol

 

[Chrisbal]

When correlations rise across the board you’ll see volatility rise. The problem with this market is that it makes no sense. Bonds and tech have been moving together. Treasuries are no longer a safe haven. Gonna be a fun 2022 LOL. That first month the fed starts hiking rates is historically not a good one.

What the Fed is doing now? Rising interest rates, they gonna print money again? What is the impact if they do so?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Black_Mamba_427]

I think there is something very fishy going on with fails to deliver, but what Superstonkers and WallStreetBetters think is mostly rubbish.
Became apparent to me when they ignored the inconvenient parts of "Naked, Short and Greedy" altogether and went "what does she know" on the only real expert on their side.

Covered some of my thoughts there: INVESTING - HOT! - Reddit r/WSB bankrupts Hedge Fund using Robinhood (last two pages)

That said, I think when you consider how many billions in fails to deliver there are in government bonds and the role that fails to deliver played in getting leverage going in the housing bubble (credit default swaps and mortgage backed securities) I think those might have a huge impact on the market and where money flows in general. Might even be part of an endgame. In the stock market, I think prices are a little suppressed and several companies are under attack, but the mechanisms that apes bet on ("Citadel will have to sell at any price yadayada") are mostly fabrications, maybe a trap for retail traders.

I don't think that hedgefunds/banks involved in this are going to go down without a fight and I think that if there were to be a MOASS, then if it happens it could be the end of the financial system as we know it.

I haven't got so much in GME that if it went to $0 I'd be effected, but I've got enough in it, that if it were to squeeze it would be nice.

It's been proven that people are buying "fake" darkpool shares for stocks they are purchasing through brokerages that don't exist and the hedgefunds are massively manipulating the price and trying to drive it down in order to get retail to panic sell out of them. The whole system is massively corrupt and the SEC seem to turn an absolute blind eye to it for some reason.

I don't know though tbh. I'm just seeing where things go. It's something I'd rather have a bit of £ in, than to potentially miss out and regret it. I'm also not relying on any stocks or crypto as my primary wealth creation source.

 

[Xeon]

What is FOMC? CPI? EOD? Please explain I don't understand!

You don't need to know these crypto terms. Crypto bros come up with all kinds of "cool" terminology daily.

At least 99% of crypto projects out there are outright scams and $LUNA is one of those.

"Cryptocurrency / blockchain / Bitcoin / Metaverse is the Future".

Lol.