UghA long SPX option I bought for $85 is now worth $5,100 -- unfortunately I sold it when it was worth $600.
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Free registration at the forum removes this block.UghA long SPX option I bought for $85 is now worth $5,100 -- unfortunately I sold it when it was worth $600.
A successful trader has more wins than losses, that's the game.
I thought I was the only one who had this fear. I hope you're wrong.Inflate on purpose, trigger the mother of all crashes, then take it all.
Great Reset into Communism. Lol, just a whacky conspiracy theory, maybe.
Markets usually bottom out when all the bad news is known, and new bad news doesn't drive the market lower.
I'm trying to understand what's going on too. Wasn't high inflation supposed to pump markets up because there's more (worthless) money circulating that is better invested in stocks?Something that I am trying to wrap my head around is that the dollar feels like the most stable asset right now (especially compared to metals this confuses me). Doesn't that indicate that investors expect a credit crunch (deflationary ... well, maybe not quite a shock ... but ...), where it is hard to get your hands on money?
On the other hand, we talk about the effects of easy money in the near past / too much liquidity creating inflation.
Sure, one argument is that it will be harder to get money at low interest rates, but even if we reach 5% for 10yr bonds ... is that a problem for companies with even just average profitability? Are there just too many unprofitable businesses and this is mostly a bet on banks getting in trouble with too many credits going bad?
But this is where my head explodes. Will these effects cancel each other out to some degree? Are the recession fears only justified when you look at the impediments for international growth? Won't domestic demand be okay because people have set aside money? It is mostly a lack of supply that drives prices up, right?
Shouldn't it be possible to predict what the herd will do, soon? I think everything is in place for some pump-and-dumps. Not sure what it will look like, but I would not be surprised if we saw some fomo asset class hyped in the news, soon.
It depends where this inflation comes from.I'm trying to understand what's going on too. Wasn't high inflation supposed to pump markets up because there's more (worthless) money circulating that is better invested in stocks?
I clearly don't understand macroeconomics and the stock market
See how China does the supply chain part...it has kept a zero-covid policy for now.But this is where my head explodes. Will these effects cancel each other out to some degree? Are the recession fears only justified when you look at the impediments for international growth? Won't domestic demand be okay because people have set aside money? It is mostly a lack of supply that drives prices up, right?
There are three markets in the economy, goods and service, financial market and labor market.I'm trying to understand what's going on too. Wasn't high inflation supposed to pump markets up because there's more (worthless) money circulating that is better invested in stocks?
I clearly don't understand macroeconomics and the stock market
Inflation this time is caused by the supply disruption globally by covid and Ukraine war. And there is nothing the U.S. gov could do much about it.
The government has always been printing money, but pre covid inflation was manageable because the money never flow into the goods and service market.That's on the news alright. Thanks god for Putin, now we have someone to blame. It probably has nothing to do with trillions of USD printed in the last two years.
Besides, this thread is from April 2021, not sure if the Ukraine war was ongoing then?
HOT! - INVESTING - Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.
I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl: I've...www.thefastlaneforum.com
Dont forget... When you are talking about "the dollar", you are no longer looking at just the USA economy. The question becomes about comparing economies. Our inflation is high... but so is Europe's, so it's not a negative factor on the world stage.Something that I am trying to wrap my head around is that the dollar feels like the most stable asset right now (especially compared to metals this confuses me). Doesn't that indicate that investors expect a credit crunch (deflationary ... well, maybe not quite a shock ... but ...), where it is hard to get your hands on money?
On the other hand, we talk about the effects of easy money in the near past / too much liquidity creating inflation.
Sure, one argument is that it will be harder to get money at low interest rates, but even if we reach 5% for 10yr bonds ... is that a problem for companies with even just average profitability? Are there just too many unprofitable businesses and this is mostly a bet on banks getting in trouble with too many credits going bad?
But this is where my head explodes. Will these effects cancel each other out to some degree? Are the recession fears only justified when you look at the impediments for international growth? Won't domestic demand be okay because people have set aside money? It is mostly a lack of supply that drives prices up, right?
Shouldn't it be possible to predict what the herd will do, soon? I think everything is in place for some pump-and-dumps. Not sure what it will look like, but I would not be surprised if we saw some fomo asset class hyped in the news, soon.
More and more things are starting to resoundingly say "recession" -- layoffs, inflation, lowered earnings...
More and more things are starting to resoundingly say "recession" -- layoffs, inflation, lowered earnings...
Netflix Lays Off Estimated 150 Staffers in New Round of Cuts
The majority of the cuts were made in the U.S.www.hollywoodreporter.com
Let's build the mountain higher that way we can fall harder *sarcasm*.I hope the government doesn't start printing and mailing out money again. With the 2022 and 2024 elections coming, I sorta expect it.
It’s definitely stress on consumers.U.S. consumer credit rockets to new record-high in April
www.morningstar.com
The FRED chart for this spread says "discontinued," any idea why?One of my favorite risk indicators for credit markets is the “TED spread”. It’s basically the difference between the “risk-free rate” and the rate banks demand from each other. It’s been a good indicator for recessions once it starts acting funny. And it has been acting funny lately.
What Are Financial Market Stress Indexes Showing?
Maybe I am too blackpilled, but I think it depends on who's in office.Having a recession on their hands is politically unacceptable.
My take is that this is about getting the China bubble to burst, so I don't think in terms of "will they" or "won't they".I guess the million dollar question is wether the Fed will back off and go BRRRRRRRR again or not.
My thesis is that they will, like they did at the end of 2018 when the S&P lost 25% after they hiked rates. Having a recession on their hands is politically unacceptable. Maybe by the end of the year ?
What do you guys think ?
I guess the million dollar question is wether the Fed will back off and go BRRRRRRRR again or not.
My thesis is that they will, like they did at the end of 2018 when the S&P lost 25% after they hiked rates. Having a recession on their hands is politically unacceptable. Maybe by the end of the year ?
What do you guys think ?
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