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Stock Market Bottom?

Anything related to investing, including crypto

Seamster

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Hey, guys. I took my money out of my 401k when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was near 30,000. It's around 21,000 today April 1. I wish I would have bought back in when it was 18,000 but I thought it was going to go lower.

How long do you think it can go? 15,000? In the long run buying at 15,000 vs 20,000 isn't going to be a giant deal, but buying in at 10,000 would be amazing!

Stimulus passed and it didn't go up much. Many stocks still dropping. I bought some airline stock thinking the bailout would help it but it hasn't moved much.
 
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Bigguns50

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How long do you think it can go? 15,000?
Billion dollar question ! I'm not much of a technical guy, more of an emotions observer. It's fascinating to me how the market (people) react to so many different things. (ie when the President speaks). I swear he knows how the market will react and calling his cronies saying"Buy / Sell after/before my speech/twitter rant". Anywho...

I simply look at companies I know. Ones that have good management and strong financials that I think will ride out this disaster and bounce back. I'm looking to buy soon.
 

Triforce

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Nobody knows when the market will bottom. I'm just dollar cost averaging by putting a steady flow of $200-1k in per week into companies that have stood the test of time and have healthy balance sheets. While it is great that we can get some stocks at discount prices, I hope this CV pandemic ends soon. I hate to see millions of Average Joe's lose their jobs due to no fault of their own.
 
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Mono

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I think there will be a huge drop in the coming months. The stock market is still at the level of a year ago. Here in my country, the brokers have enormous waiting times. They even temporarily stopped opening an account due to the many registrations. A lot of people think they can make a profit quickly.

The reason that the stock market is still at this level is caused by new investors who do not want to miss the bottom, so they buy shares now. And don't forget all the billions in central bank support packages

All institutional investors do nothing now and keep cash aside
 

Kevin88660

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I think there will be a huge drop in the coming months. The stock market is still at the level of a year ago. Here in my country, the brokers have enormous waiting times. They even temporarily stopped opening an account due to the many registrations. A lot of people think they can make a profit quickly.

The reason that the stock market is still at this level is caused by new investors who do not want to miss the bottom, so they buy shares now. And don't forget all the billions in central bank support packages

All institutional investors do nothing now and keep cash aside
Personally I would avoid chasing the rally and wait for a double bottom. No one knows the exact bottom but I rather accumulate when it is on the way down, and positioning at multiple different opportunities.
 
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Andreas Thiel

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Trying to invest at the bottom can backfire. Buying in at 10,000 would be awesome?
That is really painful to read.

If we see another forceful drop then it gets more and more likely that the markets will be closed due to unmanageable volatility and it might be impossible to buy stocks for weeks - probably until the situation is under control - which means higher prices.

Also, some of the gains seem to happen due to buybacks again. That does not sound healthy.
I know many people who got into oil companies because that is apparently a sure thing. Too much greed.
 

Kevin88660

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Trying to invest at the bottom can backfire. Buying in at 10,000 would be awesome?
That is really painful to read.

If we see another forceful drop then it gets more and more likely that the markets will be closed due to unmanageable volatility and it might be impossible to buy stocks for weeks - probably until the situation is under control - which means higher prices.

Also, some of the gains seem to happen due to buybacks again. That does not sound healthy.
I know many people who got into oil companies because that is apparently a sure thing. Too much greed.
I dont think doomsday scenario of 10000 level dow is going to play out. The Fed can just print and buy everything if they were forced to.

Bankruptcy now or possible runaway inflation later. Easy Choice for the bureaucrats and the elites who run U.S.
 

Andreas Thiel

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I dont think doomsday scenario of 10000 level dow is going to play out. The Fed can just print and buy everything if they were forced to.

Bankruptcy now or possible runaway inflation later. Easy Choice for the bureaucrats and the elites who run U.S.

I think inflation is pretty much what the powers that be want for a debt reset. But I think inflation and a huge blow to real economy will go hand in hand.

Not sure how much power the FED really has when it comes to money actually reaching / rescuing businesses.
When banks don't trust anybody then there will be another credit crunch. Huge percentages of the hypothetical money might never reach the real economy. Any huge disconnect between real economic output and inflated valuations is an issue. And historically it has taken a long time before monetary policy changes had an impact on the economy.

I don't think a snowball effect that heavily impacts the big players in the short to medium term is unlikely.
 
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Seamster

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Hey, guys, thanks for the answers. Since I wrote the original post the stock market HAS moved it. It's not "because of stimulus," I've realized, but it's NEWS OF STIMULUS. I think I'm starting to understand what "futures" means. When I thought it was going to go up because of stimulus, it already HAD gone up due to the simple NEWS of the stimulus. I'm learning.

So, for my 401k, I still out: all in the money market fund. For my personal post-tax money that I play around with, I have a few stocks that might go up, or not. I'd personally rather see a huge crash to buy some stuff cheap!
 

Lionhearted

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Hey, guys, thanks for the answers. Since I wrote the original post the stock market HAS moved it. It's not "because of stimulus," I've realized, but it's NEWS OF STIMULUS. I think I'm starting to understand what "futures" means. When I thought it was going to go up because of stimulus, it already HAD gone up due to the simple NEWS of the stimulus. I'm learning.

So, for my 401k, I still out: all in the money market fund. For my personal post-tax money that I play around with, I have a few stocks that might go up, or not. I'd personally rather see a huge crash to buy some stuff cheap!
The HUGE crash already happened. 39% drop in the Dow is EPIC.
32137
It's my opinion that you really can't scare it anymore with Corona virus but I don't have a crystal ball either. There is always risk but in my opinion to go to 10,000 is entering into fantasy. If it did I think you would be worrying about a whole lot more than the virus or when to invest because the world would be in a severe depression. I have been buying into this dip and I am dollar cost averaging by buying in the RED days.
Understand that the money did not disappear it went into someones hands. So all the money that got ripped out of the markets is sitting on the sidelines earning next to nothing while been devalued by inflation. No one likes to see that happen.
It will be put back into the market where it can make a decent return again. I think people will be seriously surprised at the speed that is going to happen at. Ask yourself where are the $4 trillion that were sucked out of the market going to be invested otherwise? It has to be invested somewhere and it's not going to stay in a savings account or what ever super low interest rate holding tank it was put into for long. BTW the Gov just printed up $6 Trillion plus and is dropping it out of the sky. That money will be spent and invested too. Where else can you invest $10 Trillion quick???? It won't sit on the sidelines long. It also needs to go back to work. (Not a financial consultant, your own risk, blah, blah, blah in other words don't blame me regardless of what happens!) All the best.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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I’m investing now but I’ve come to terms with this truth:

I will never create more wealth by buying a market bottom than by building a business.

At least at this point in my life.

This downturn/recession will create MANY opportunities, and the stock market is a small one unless you’ve got boatloads of cash.
 
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Lionhearted

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I’m investing now but I’ve come to terms with this truth:

I will never create more wealth by buying a market bottom than by building a business.

At least at this point in my life.

This downturn/recession will create MANY opportunities, and the stock market is a small one unless you’ve got boatloads of cash.
Stocks fail MJ's CENTS test on Control and Entry LINK>>>CENTS Thanks MJ!
 

gloriusubiquity

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The HUGE crash already happened. 39% drop in the Dow is EPIC.
32137
32137

It's my opinion that you really can't scare it anymore with Corona virus but I don't have a crystal ball either. There is always risk but in my opinion to go to 10,000 is entering into fantasy. If it did I think you would be worrying about a whole lot more than the virus or when to invest because the world would be in a severe depression. I have been buying into this dip and I am dollar cost averaging by buying in the RED days.
Understand that the money did not disappear it went into someones hands. So all the money that got ripped out of the markets is sitting on the sidelines earning next to nothing while been devalued by inflation. No one likes to see that happen.
It will be put back into the market where it can make a decent return again. I think people will be seriously surprised at the speed that is going to happen at. Ask yourself where are the $4 trillion that were sucked out of the market going to be invested otherwise? It has to be invested somewhere and it's not going to stay in a savings account or what ever super low interest rate holding tank it was put into for long. BTW the Gov just printed up $6 Trillion plus and is dropping it out of the sky. That money will be spent and invested too. Where else can you invest $10 Trillion quick???? It won't sit on the sidelines long. It also needs to go back to work. (Not a financial consultant, your own risk, blah, blah, blah in other words don't blame me regardless of what happens!) All the best.

I don't have a crystal ball either but something tells me even though the Fed is printing trillions in Treasuries and allowing banks to buy them up for ~0% interest, banks are having a hard time giving it to the small businesses in need. A quick google search on "EIDL" or "PPP" and you can see the huge inefficiencies of people trying to make payroll needing the money ASAP and stimulus checks haven't even been deposited in everybody's accounts yet (even those that have direct deposit set up like me xD) For the EIDL, you only get $1k per employee which won't last long. In short millions of small businesses are going to fail which doesn't bode well for the small cap businesses.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWobMCzu1wg


An economist who worked at the Fed is saying what the Fed is doing now is ILLEGAL (allowing the White House to basically take over when it should be independent... Trump pressuring Jerome Powell to print trillions so he can get re-elected) as well as the fact that unemployment claims are skyrocketing. Seeing as how most people live paycheck to paycheck (~49% depending on your source), you're going to see a huge decrease in consumer spending for Q1 and possibly Q2. That can't spell good news for the stock market since prices are going to tank once people see lower than expected returns (or they might rise depending on if they didn't drop as much as they thought they were)

While the Fed is printing massive amounts of money to offset the tanking stock market, there's no such thing as a free lunch (Milton Friedman) I'd be surprised if we didn't see another dip in the coming weeks to months, these are just my two cents.
 

Lionhearted

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I don't have a crystal ball either but something tells me even though the Fed is printing trillions in Treasuries and allowing banks to buy them up for ~0% interest, banks are having a hard time giving it to the small businesses in need. A quick google search on "EIDL" or "PPP" and you can see the huge inefficiencies of people trying to make payroll needing the money ASAP and stimulus checks haven't even been deposited in everybody's accounts yet (even those that have direct deposit set up like me xD) For the EIDL, you only get $1k per employee which won't last long. In short millions of small businesses are going to fail which doesn't bode well for the small cap businesses.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWobMCzu1wg


An economist who worked at the Fed is saying what the Fed is doing now is ILLEGAL (allowing the White House to basically take over when it should be independent... Trump pressuring Jerome Powell to print trillions so he can get re-elected) as well as the fact that unemployment claims are skyrocketing. Seeing as how most people live paycheck to paycheck (~49% depending on your source), you're going to see a huge decrease in consumer spending for Q1 and possibly Q2. That can't spell good news for the stock market since prices are going to tank once people see lower than expected returns (or they might rise depending on if they didn't drop as much as they thought they were)

While the Fed is printing massive amounts of money to offset the tanking stock market, there's no such thing as a free lunch (Milton Friedman) I'd be surprised if we didn't see another dip in the coming weeks to months, these are just my two cents.
I don't think it makes good business sense to take out loans (which may or may not be forgiven) to keep your employees paid when no one is coming through your doors to buy anything. If this thing goes long enough, you go out of business anyway and get stuck with a government loan. I am not signing up for that deal. BTW if you can't leave your house except to get essentials you will automatically spend less money.
 
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