@MJ DeMarco You make good points, of course.
I don't agree with all of them. Breakdown below...
When the FBI breaks down your door and arrests you for "d0m3stIc t3rr0rIsm" (because for the last 9 months, CNN and FOX has brainwashed the public that BTC owners are terr0ri5sts) what help is it that your digital wallet is secure? Will the FBI stand down and say, "Oh, you have a secure digital wallet! Let me take these handcuffs off ya!"
...
If BTC transactions are made illegal, the security of your coins is irrelevant. All they need to do is prove that you own it and have made transactions (I'm assuming originating from a Federally Insured bank account?) -- then it's off the slammer.
The argument isn't that my keys are safe and secure, thus the FBI will let me go. It means it cannot be seized. It cannot be removed from my wallets without them finding my keys, or extracting them from me.
Compare this to your brokerage account, safe deposit boxes in your bank, or your bank account. The government makes a phone call and that money is no longer yours.
So what are the practical steps that the government or an oppressive force can take, then?
- Detainment
- Torture
- Threat of death (aka gun to your head)
- Threat of death to your family
For 2, 3 or 4 to happen, it means that the government descends into full on nazi-level authoritarianism where they are incarcerating, torturing and exterminating a whole class of people who own an asset (which would legitimately cause WW3, as it caused WW2).
I think this has a probability of happening, but it's extremely small.
That means the only practical measure they will have is detainment.
So, in one scenario, they detain thousands (millions??) of people who aren't willing to hand over their wealth. Then, as we sit in our cells, the price of the illegal asset soars, making it well worth the hassle of sitting in jail.
I can get rich and stand up for liberty at the same time?
What a win.
In another scenario, they choose to make an example of a select few people, which gives folks like me time to sort out how they are going to skirt the rules until the gov't realizes this level of regulation isn't worth it.
The logistics behind arranging and enforcing such a ban are impractical, at best. Most likely, impossible.
Far more likely, I just say I lost my keys recently and can't access those funds anymore. Can they prove I haven't?
On top of that, the probability of this scenario is highly unlikely. Many of our top regulators and lawmakers now come from a crypto background.
The odds of such an oppressive ban means it is < 1% chance of the detainment situation, and less than 0.01% chance of the government threatening to kill my family.
Seems like a risk worth taking.
Right now the biggest threat to digital assets is WHO they threaten.
And guess who that is?
Your trusty government.
Definitely.
I also agree that anyone who thinks BTC is anonymous by default is naive.
BTC has been terrific for the FBI - it makes investigations much easier (which is why Cash is still king among illicit actors).
I agree that governments around the world will impose harsh bans and restrictions because of the threat it poses to them.
I disagree that this presents a probable scenario where I need to be worried about detainment or death.