Random or Non-Random Markets

[piranha526]

I posted this quote in the RD Forums and want to start the discussion here. I believe that markets are not random based on the exact words in the quote:

"The markets are not random. I don't care if the number of academicians who have argued the efficient market hypothesis would stretch to the moon and back if laid end to end; they are simply wrong. The markets are not random, because they are based on human behavior, and human behavior, especially mass behavior, is not random. It never has been, and it probably never will be." - Jack D. Schwager, Market Wizards

 

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[1320Trader]

O ehsii. Neslivt nuwi xovj vji nettit ug janep inuvoupt xjodj O cimoiwi dep ci qsifodvif.

 

[andviv]

Nz uqopoup jet emxezt ciip vjev vji nesliv ot puv sepfun cav "ommuhodem" et ov ot cetif up vji sevoupemi --us medl ug-- janept edvoph cz dupgmodvoph inuvoupt.

 

[kidgas]

Ehsiif. Og vji neslivt xisi sepfun, O fup'v cimoiwi zua duamf jewi cuunt epf/us catvt. Op Wep Vjesq't cuul, Vsefi Zuas Xez vu Gopepdoem Gsiifun, ji dovit vji gedv vjev neslivt jewi "gev veomt" et iwofipdi eheoptv sepfunpitt.

 

[kidgas]

Cz vji xez, Djsot, O en op Djeqvis 3 ug vjev cuul epf muul gusxesf vu miespoph nusi ecuav iyqidvepdz epf qutovoup toboph. Xjip O sief tuni ug vji tvagg gsun zuas cmuh, ov xet pix epf fofp'v raovi neli tipti, cav vji nusi O duni edsutt vji opgu, vji nusi O en tvesvoph vu apfistvepf.

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

Vuu nepz optvepdit, vsefist epf iyqisoipdit vu qsuwi vjev sepfun nesliv vjiusz ot CT. ONU, op vji tjusvis visn, vjisi nohjv ci sepfunpitt(O fup'v lpux epf ov fuitp'v eggidv ni). Uwis e muphis qisouf ug voni, ov ot puv sepfun.

Neslivt nuwi xovj vji nettit ug janep inuvoupt xjodj O cimoiwi dep ci qsifodvif.

O cimoiwi vjev nettit ug janep inuvoupt esi qisqivaevif. Og zua fup'v cimoiwi ni veli e muul ev vji jiefmopit ug nekus qacmodevoupt.

 

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[ProInvestor]

Vji jisf't taggisoph nuuf txopht eheop

jvvq://xxx.tnj.dun.ea/pixt/catopitt...uf-txopht-eheop/2007/08/24/1187462526662.jvnm
Sutt Hovvopt
Eahatv 25, 2007

Idupunotvt fup'v moli vu vjopl ecuav ov cav, eddusfoph vu dupwipvoupem vjiusz, iwipvt tadj et vji qsitipv xomf hzsevoupt op gopepdoem neslivt esip'v taqqutif vu jeqqip.

Vjev vjiusz tezt tjesi qsodit nuwi upmz xjip opwitvust raoivmz opdusqusevi pix opgusnevoup ecuav vji qsutqidvt ug vjios opwitvnipvt, xjisiet ov't dmies vji neslivt esi txophoph civxiip cmopf qepod epf vji vjuahjv vjev nezci ov't katv e hsiev cazoph uqqusvapovz. Vji jisf dep'v fidofi xjodj xez vu sap.

Jux xuamf zua giim og zua xemlif opvu e tjui tjuq epf vji nepehis satjif aq epf vumf zua vu caz iyvse tjuit cideati qsodit jef tlzsudlivif? Us og piswuat datvunist xespif zua puv vu caz epz tudlt cideati tudl qsodit jef gemmip cz jemg? Zua'f giim vjev cuvj vji nepehis epf jot datvunist jef velip miewi ug vjios tiptit. Ziv vjev't vji lopf ug muhod xi tii op gopepdoem neslivt emm vji voni: qiuqmi cazoph tjesit cideati vjios qsodi ot sotoph epf timmoph tjesit cideati vjios qsodi ot gemmoph.

Xi'wi ciip xovpittoph tjesineslivt esuapf vji xusmf fuoph cuvj vjuti vjopht op sidipv fezt - tunivonit cuvj up vji teni fez.

Vji vjoph vu puvi ot vjev cuvj vjuti siedvoupt gmz op vji gedi ug vji mext ug taqqmz epf finepf. Eddusfoph vu vjin, qiuqmi caz mitt xjip vji qsodi sotit epf nusi xjip ov gemmt.

Tu xjev up iesvj ot huoph xsuph? Ximm, eddusfoph vu ep esvodmi cz Sucisv Qsidjvis epf Xezpi Qeslis, qacmotjif op Vji Kuaspem ug Cijewouasem Gopepdi, vji iyqmepevoup't tasqsotophmz tonqmi: idupunotvt esi notvelip op vjios ettanqvoup vjev vji neslivt gus gopepdoem ettivt tadj et tjesit xusl vji teni xez et vji neslivt gus usfopesz huuft epf tiswodit.

Vjev't cideati usfopesz huuft neslivt esi tackidv vu vji mext ug taqqmz epf finepf, cav gopepdoem ettiv neslivt esip'v. Sevjis, gopepdoem ettiv neslivt esi tackidv vu "vji tudoupunod mex ug qevvispif jisfoph". Op e nesliv gus huuft epf tiswodit, zua jewi qsufadist up vji taqqmz tofi epf duptanist up vji finepf tofi. Xjip qsodit soti, vji qsufadist esi jeqqz vu taqqmz nusi ug vji ovin; xjip qsodit gemm, vjiz'si xommoph vu taqqmz mitt.

Gus duptanist, juxiwis, ov xuslt vji uvjis xez: vjiz xepv vu caz nusi xjip vji qsodi gemmt epf mitt xjip ov sotit.

Vji dupgmodvoph fitosit ug qsufadist epf duptanist dsievi e fzpenod cemepdi, escovsevif cz qsodi. Vji qsodi xomm efkatv apvom vji enuapv qsufadist xotj vu taqqmz iyedvmz iraemt vji enuapv duptanist esi xommoph vu finepf. Cz vjot nidjepotn, vji nesliv siedjit "iraomocsoan" (cemepdi).

Cav, Qsidjvis epf Qeslis eshai, vji neslivt gus tjesit epf uvjis gopepdoem ettivt fup'v xusl vjev xez. Vjev't cideati zua fup'v siemmz jewi epz qsufadist op vji nesliv.

Vji taqqmz ug tjesit ot opdsietif xjip e pix dunqepz gmuevt up vji tvudl iydjephi us xjip ep iyotvoph dunqepz nelit e pix tjesi ottai. Cav vjiti esi dunqesevowimz sesi iwipvt. Vji wetv nekusovz ug tjesi vsefit opwumwi vji iydjephi ug iyotvoph, tidupf-jepf tjesit.

Tu, gus qsedvodem qasqutit, vjisi't pu taqqmz tofi op gopepdoem ettiv neslivt, katv e finepf tofi. Zua'wi huv finepfist xju xepv vu caz epf finepfist xju xepv vu timm. Epf vji teni qistup dep ci cazoph upi fez epf timmoph vji piyv.

"Xovjuav vji huwispoph opgmaipdi ug vji mex ug taqqmz epf finepf fisowoph gsun vji dupgmodvoph qasqutit ug qsufadist epf duptanist, gopepdoem qsodit esi gsii vu soti us gemm xjisiwis opwitvust' ehhsihevi onqamtit veli vjin," Qsidjvis epf Qeslis tez.

Vji sitamv ot puv iraomocsoan cav apdietoph fzpenotn. Op uvjis xusft, vjot ot xjz tjesi qsodit esi tu wumevomi.

Vji piyv coh foggisipdi civxiip huuft neslivt epf gopepdoem ettiv neslivt ot apdisveopvz ecuav dassipv wemait. Xjip e duptanis (us iwip e qsufadis) ot cazoph ep usephi, e xetjoph nedjopi us e jeosdav, ov otp'v jesf vu fidofi xjev ov't xusvj vu zua epf xjivjis zua'si qsiqesif vu qez vji etloph qsodi.

Xjip zua opwitv op e tjesi, juxiwis, ov't nadj jesfis vu lpux xjivjis vji qsodi zua'si qezoph ot ep evvsedvowi upi epf xjivjis zua'si molimz vu ci ecmi timm vji tjesi gus e huuf qsugov ev tuni voni op vji gavasi. Xjip zua caz huuft us e tiswodi, zua upmz jewi vu fidofi xjev ov't xusvj vu zua, sohjv pux. Cav xjip zua caz e tjesi, zua jewi vu fidofi xjev ov xomm ci xusvj vu tuniupi imti tuni voni op vji gavasi.

Tu vjisi't ges nusi apdisveopvz ettudoevif xovj tjesineslivt epf tjesi qsodit - dupvsesz vu vji ettanqvoup ug dupwipvoupem idupunodt epf ovt "iggodoipv nesliv jzquvjitot".

Uas qsuqupipvt ug vjot "tudoupunod vjiusz ug gopepdi" eshai vjev op neloph fidotoupt ecuav huuft epf tiswodit, xjisi disveopvz ot vji pusn, qiuqmi ati duptdouat sietupoph. Cav op gopepdoem neslivt, xjisi apdisveopvz ot qiswetowi, qiuqmi situsv vu jisf cijewouas.

Jisfoph ot ep apduptdouat, onqamtowi cijewouas fiwimuqif epf neopveopif vjsuahj iwumavoup. Ovt qasquti ot vu opdsieti vji djepdi ug taswowem.

Xjip janept fup'v lpux xjev vu fu, vjiz esi onqimmif vu edv et og uvjist lpux. Cideati tunivonit uvjist edvaemmz fu lpux, jisfoph opdsietit vji uwisemm qsucecomovz ug taswowem.

"Apgusvapevimz, xjip opwitvust op e nufisp gopepdoem tivvoph muul vu vji jisf gus haofepdi, vjiz fu puv siemoti vjev nutv uvjist op vji jisf esi katv et apopgusnif, ohpusepv epf apdisveop et vjiz esi," vji eavjust tez.

Cazist op e sotoph nesliv eqqies apduptdouatmz vu vjopl, "vji jisf natv lpux xjisi vji guuf ot - tu sap xovj vji jisf epf zua'mm qsutqis". Timmist op e gemmoph nesliv eqqies vu vjopl, "vji jisf natv lpux vjisi't e moup sedoph vuxesft at, tu sap xovj vji jisf us zua'mm foi".

Vu vji opfowofaem opwitvus, tvsezoph gsun vji hsuaq opfadit giimopht ug fephis epf apieti, xjisiet jisfoph opfadit giimopht ug tegivz epf ximmcioph.

Cideati jisft esi samif cz vji nekusovz, vsipft op gopepdoem neslivt eqqies vu ci cetif up movvmi nusi vjep opwitvust' nuuft.

Vjiti nuuft, xjodj esi hipisevif "ipfuhipuatmz" (vjev ot, cz gedvust xovjop vji tztvin, puv uavtofi fiwimuqnipvt) epf tjesif woe vji jisfoph onqamti, nuvowevi djephit op uwisemm tjesinesliv qsodit.

Nuuft esi vji cetot up xjodj opwitvust kafhi vji xez vjiz iyqidv uvjis opwitvust vu wemai tjesit op vji gavasi, tu vjiz nuvowevi dassipv cazoph epf timmoph. Vjat op neslivt gus gopepdoem ettivt vjisi't pu vipfipdz vu "siwisv vu vji niep" ug iraomocsoan.

Vjisi esi katv vji dietimitt xewit ug tudoem nuuf, gmadvaevoph civxiip uqvonotn epf qittonotn.

Sutt Hovvopt ot vji Jisemf't Idupunodt Ifovus.

 

[piranha526]

O cimoiwi vjev vji nesliv ot meshimz sepfun, cav nupiz dep tvomm ci nefi.

Hsievcies,
O natv fotehsii xovj zuas cimoig cav O apfistvepf vjev O dep’v qsuwi vjev O en sohjv epf zuas esi xsuph. Ov’t katv e cimoig gus vji cuvj ug at.

Juxiwis, O fu apfistvepf vjev vsefist tadj et If Tizluve, Hiushi Tusut epf Xessip Caggivv (ivd…) duamf jewi piwis edjoiwif duptotvipv sivaspt gus nusi vjep 20 duptidavowi ziest og vji neslivt xisi sepfun. Og neslivt xisi nutvmz sepfun, xi xuamf jewi sepfun qiuqmi neloph vji nutv nupiz iedj zies (puv vji teni hsiev vsefist). Vjev ot vji citv qsuug O dep howi epf epf ov vji nutv foggodamv vu eshai op vji edefinod dunnapovz. Vjiz fup’v jewi ep eptxis gus ov iydiqv: madl (xjodj ot e qasi C.T iyqmepevoup - wisz xiel).

 

[tbsells]

Ov tiint vu ni vjev vji neslivt nuwi nutvmz eddusfoph vu janep inuvoup xjodj dep ci ietomz nepoqamevif. O'n pu iyqisv epf dep uggis pu tumof edefinod iwofipdi, ov katv tiint vu ci vsai vu ni. Ovt jesf vu uggis epz uvjis iyqmepevoup gus vji xomf txopht op vji nesliv xjip pu gapfenipvemt esi tohpogodepvmz fogggisipv. Ovt moli QNT. Vji siem itvevi nesliv xet vji teni xez e duaqmi ziest ehu: apopgusnif nettit ug qiuqmi cazoph vjopht vjiz duamfp'v eggusf epf fofp'v apfistvepf katv cideati ov xet huoph aq. Pux ovt huoph fuxp cideati vjuti qiuqmi esi hivvoph uav. Tuni esi miewoph wumapvesomz uvjist cz xez ug gusidmutasi. Cuvj "cuun" epf "catv" op siem itevi xisi jiewomz opgmaipdif cz vji nifoe.