Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

[MoneyDoc]

Problem with $10m+ homes is that the value is subjective. Some people build elaborate marble floors and other just focus on location and build a regular luxury spec. $2m +\- in a shit market for luxury isn’t bad. I bet luxury condominiums are suffering big.

There's a super luxury condo development currently under construction in downtown Toronto. Two years ago their penthouses were fetching $20m-$30m depending on the sqft (these are multi floor units, 4000+sqft). I think the builder has dropped prices by about $3-5m per unit.. construction costs have risen exponentially, demand has gone to shit. I'm just trying to figure out how some of these super luxury condo developments under construction are even coming out whole at this point. I've read about one development takeover so far, won't be surprised if there are many more in the near future.

Same issue with exotic cars. I visited a friend of mine (older guy) that owns a supercar dealership two days ago. He literally has 20 cars (Lamborghinis, Ferraris, and Rolls Royces) in stock. He told me he's under water for a few already as he paid too much last year. He hasn't gotten one call in weeks for ANY of his in stock cars... let that sink in. Imagine sitting on $15m+ inventory, overpaying for a few, and not making any sales for months...

 

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[Antifragile]

There's a super luxury condo development currently under construction in downtown Toronto. Two years ago their penthouses were fetching $20m-$30m depending on the sqft (these are multi floor units, 4000+sqft). I think the builder has dropped prices by about $3-5m per unit.. construction costs have risen exponentially, demand has gone to shit. I'm just trying to figure out how some these super luxury condo developments under construction are even coming out whole at this point. I've read about one development takeover so far, won't be surprised if there are many more in the near future.

1/3 of all high rise projects in Toronto are canceled or on hold, based on what I heard at a conference last month there. The point is, they aren’t making it. Those under construction must have two things:
1. Enough presales to meet lender construction loan requirements
2. Locked in construction pricing before the meteoric rise.

Bad news is that even with fixed price contracts, builders may not be able to deliver and start renegotiating and cutting corners to cut costs … it’s a mess man. Blood in the streets for development.

 

[Antifragile]

@MoneyDoc

But look at our vacancy rates! We need inventory and aren’t building anywhere near enough. I’m bullish on rental.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

There's a super luxury condo development currently under construction in downtown Toronto. Two years ago their penthouses were fetching $20m-$30m depending on the sqft (these are multi floor units, 4000+sqft). I think the builder has dropped prices by about $3-5m per unit.. construction costs have risen exponentially, demand has gone to shit. I'm just trying to figure out how some these super luxury condo developments under construction are even coming out whole at this point. I've read about one development takeover so far, won't be surprised if there are many more in the near future.

Same issue with exotic cars. I visited a friend of mine (older guy) that owns a supercar dealership two days ago. He literally has 20 cars (Lamborghinis, Ferraris, and Rolls Royces) in stock. He told me he's under water for a few already as he paid too much last year. He hasn't gotten one call in weeks for ANY of his in stock cars... let that sink in. Imagine sitting on $15m+ inventory, overpaying for a few, and not making any sales for months...

The people you’re describing had very little C - control - in their businesses due to their extreme sensitivity to interest rates. Being at the absolute peak of the market / luxury really does that...

 

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[Kevin88660]

Given that there are many car lovers here, anyone now in Singapore for the F1 event?

 

[MTF]

Given that there are many car lovers here, anyone now in Singapore for the F1 event?View attachment 45361

Do they seriously still check if people are vaxinated and refuse entry if you aren't? If so, that's ridiculous.

 

[Kevin88660]

Do they seriously still check if people are vaxinated and refuse entry if you aren't? If so, that's ridiculous.

There is no check on vaccination status when my friends and I entered.

 

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[Xeon]

Dall-E is now open to the public. I typed in the words "an image of a farm in the 18th century england countryside" and it created 4 images:

HOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!! A computer AI did this! The 3rd image looks wonky especially near the foreground, but the first 2 are great. With a bit of Photoshop, boom.


"digital art of two women having afternoon tea in a cozy cafe" :

"a photo of a witch battling with a horde of vikings over the ocean" :

For this witch/viking one, I'm amazed at how great Dall-E got the color scheme in the 1st and last one correct. Grim and moody. Impressive!!!

Dall E in its current iteration is good for spinning out rough ideas which you can then paint over them, or use it as a base to refine the idea upon.

I haven't tested others like MidJourney (and Dall-E 2, but I think that's still under beta/invite only) but MidJourney should be even better.

On Dall E, I also tried "a photo of Joe Biden reading a storybook together with Chinese president Xi JinPing" but the AI says it doesn't follow their content policy, so there's still some safeguards in the system

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Dall-E is now open to the public. I typed in the words "an image of a farm in the 18th century england countryside" and it created 4 images:

HOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!! A computer AI did this! The 3rd image looks wonky especially near the foreground, but the first 2 are great. With a bit of Photoshop, boom.


"digital art of two women having afternoon tea in a cozy cafe" :

"a photo of a witch battling with a horde of vikings over the ocean" :

For this witch/viking one, I'm amazed at how great Dall-E got the color scheme in the 1st and last one correct. Grim and moody. Impressive!!!

Dall E in its current iteration is good for spinning out rough ideas which you can then paint over them, or use it as a base to refine the idea upon.

I haven't tested others like MidJourney (and Dall-E 2, but I think that's still under beta/invite only) but MidJourney should be even better.

On Dall E, I also tried "a photo of Joe Biden reading a storybook together with Chinese president Xi JinPing" but the AI says it doesn't follow their content policy, so there's still some safeguards in the system

I love Dall E. That censorship is disgusting though.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

The NFT market crash is pretty interesting. Surprised nobody's talking about that.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

The NFT market crash is pretty interesting. Surprised nobody's talking about that.

Something happen? Other than a slow decline like rest of the markets?

 

[doster.zach]

Something happen? Other than a slow decline like rest of the markets?

Ethereum activity is down 90% from its peak on OpenSea.

OpenSea Trading Volume Down 90% Since January

NFT trading volume has fallen to a pittance of what it was in May. (NOTE: The title of this article was updated to more accurately portray the degree to which OpenSea trading volume has declined.)

cryptopotato.com

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Ethereum activity is down 90% from its peak on OpenSea.

Not surprising. We're seeing a needed and necessary return to normal where money once again, is tied to real value. The "free money" sources that appealed to the masses, stuff like Crypto, WSB style stock trading, buy and forget index funds, and NFTS are starting to dry up. IMO, all this crap needs to shake out and it will need many more months to do so.

Right now the only way to make money is to provide value... not by buying some shit-coin, or some limited edition JPEG.

 

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[msufan]

I love Dall E. That censorship is disgusting though.

The censorship is to avoid people passing off fictional photos as real ones.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

"When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another..." - The USA Declaration of Independence

I wonder how many Americans remember this from grade school? The founders of the USA said that if you don't like the way you're being governed - cut ties, give them the boot. Not kidding!

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Drudge Report was absolutely sold and the owners are the same ones who own Refdesk.com ... if you look at both sites, the content is almost an exact match.

If you followed Drudge back in its prime, like I did, you could tell when the content did a 180 from heavily conservative to moderate - mainstream liberal / msnbc / CNN.

 

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[mikecarlooch]

Quick thought:

I used to think that being selfish with the lights, cameras and action and being the main center of attention was the way to go.

Since starting this new show (yes I’ve only done 2 episodes), I’ve realized that the real value and growth in relationships is to find ways to lift up others and give others the spotlight. It’s a much more fulfilling feeling.

 

[MoneyDoc]

No one can construct for you the bridge upon which precisely you must cross the stream of life, no one but you yourself alone.

-Nietzsche

 

[MoneyDoc]

Had a random business idea and now I can’t stop thinking about it…

Mortgages (can substitute with other forms of loans as well but mortgages work best).

Typical mortgage process. Send a bank or broker your tax information, income slips, debt, assets, chequing account statements, savings account statements, letter of employment, your left kidney, etc.

Now you wait for an underwriter to appraise your home, calculate risk for the loan, and decide FOR YOU if you deserve this home purchase. Essentially, you’re blind, and the underwriter/bank is deciding where you go.

Now, we all know what happens when you default multiple payments on a mortgage. So risk for mortgages is really not that bad (imo) as long as you get the appraisal right.

Now here comes the MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. Smart contract controlled mortgage provider providing instant mortgages. I don’t care what income you make, how much debt you have, what car you drive, what assets you have, how much taxes you paid, the balance on your chequing account, or your favourite colour. If someone is buying a $5m home and needs a mortgage, it’s just common sense to assume they can afford the payments. I wouldn’t ask a neurosurgeon buying a Lamborghini if they can afford the payments.

Anyway, you get the mortgage, smart contract is such that if you default on the payments after say 3 consecutive months, title is automatically transferred to MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. I’m ignoring the technical “how to’s” and the tech as that can all be figured out later.

Please tell me you WON’T use MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions if such a service existed.

@Antifragile need a development loan for a ground up storage development? How does an instant wire sound without you providing me any personal/business income statements, assets, etc. I don’t care if you can afford the deal (lol). Commercial loans would require a bit more underwriting as you don’t want to lend out $19m to have a default by the developer and be stuck with a development only worth $5m, but you get the point. The process is what matters.

I’m currently working to get a mortgage and the first email with the banker is already a hassle. I feel as if they’re essentially controlling my future (and they are) and I’m not comfortable with that. We put too much trust in banks and still get treated like shit.

Any thoughts?

 

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[Antifragile]

@MoneyDoc
Assessing quality of the buyer is how you lower the interest rate you charge and increase leverage. If you buy a little condo, and there are thousands of similar condos (liquid market), then how much can I borrow from you? Now do same exercise for a $5m home.
If market corrects like in 2008, and your company ends up owning all those units without recourse … you aren’t a lender anymore.
It all starts with where you get money for your new bank. Probably from investors. Private guys will want a double digit return, meaning your rate will be high. That leaves you with institutional money - pension funds, insurance etc. This is “cheap money” but they need security. Meaning recourse … down to individuals so they don’t walk away from their condo after they borrow 95% and property becomes illiquid after a correction.

And you already highlighted the challenges with valuing development sites.

 

[Xeon]

limited edition JPEG.

Best and shortest summary I've seen about NFTs Who are those who bought BAYC NFTs?

 

[MoneyDoc]

@MoneyDoc
Assessing quality of the buyer is how you lower the interest rate you charge and increase leverage. If you buy a little condo, and there are thousands of similar condos (liquid market), then how much can I borrow from you? Now do same exercise for a $5m home.
If market corrects like in 2008, and your company ends up owning all those units without recourse … you aren’t a lender anymore.
It all starts with where you get money for your new bank. Probably from investors. Private guys will want a double digit return, meaning your rate will be high. That leaves you with institutional money - pension funds, insurance etc. This is “cheap money” but they need security. Meaning recourse … down to individuals so they don’t walk away from their condo after they borrow 95% and property becomes illiquid after a correction.

And you already highlighted the challenges with valuing development sites.

Fair points.

Curious, if you were a lender, would you prefer maximizing volume or maximizing the cost of the loans (higher interest rate, etc.)?

 

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[Antifragile]

Fair points.

Curious, if you were a lender, would you prefer maximizing volume or maximizing the cost of the loans (higher interest rate, etc.)?

I’m conservative by nature, so volume is a better fit for me. Id rather lend a billion at low rates than a few hundred million to people that may not pay it back.

All that said, banks are PITA. I would welcome a reform to the current way of doing business. It’s slow and flawed in so many ways.

 

[Xeon]

The No. 1 perk that will bring Gen Z and millennials into the office, according to Microsoft

What will convince younger employees to ditch their sweatpants and renew their commute? The answer is surprisingly simple.

www.cnbc.com

I read the title of the article and thought Microsoft has some innovative, revolutionary idea/perk that can convince people to go back to the office. After all, an entire article is written on this.

And what's that revolutionary idea or perk?

"social time with co-workers"

How many of you guys want to spend more time with your colleagues?

 

[GPM]

Not surprising. We're seeing a needed and necessary return to normal where money once again, is tied to real value. The "free money" sources that appealed to the masses, stuff like Crypto, WSB style stock trading, buy and forget index funds, and NFTS are starting to dry up. IMO, all this crap needs to shake out and it will need many more months to do so.

Right now the only way to make money is to provide value... not by buying some shit-coin, or some limited edition JPEG.

I think them turning away from miners also has an effect on it. That is literally what could be hundreds of thousands of miners who used to deal in Eth are no longer doing so, and probably won't even touch it again. I saw something along the lines of tens of thousands of Eth were dumped by mining addresses shortly after the merge, and those guys are 100% done with Eth at this point.

 

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[Xeon]

Stock images created by AI:

AI Photo Generator: Logo, Art, Stock Image, Illustration | Stockimg

Stockimg is an all in one design and content creation tool powered by AI. You can easily generate logo, illustration, wallpaper, poster and more.

www.stockai.com

 

[Kak]

Had a random business idea and now I can’t stop thinking about it…

Mortgages (can substitute with other forms of loans as well but mortgages work best).

Typical mortgage process. Send a bank or broker your tax information, income slips, debt, assets, chequing account statements, savings account statements, letter of employment, your left kidney, etc.

Now you wait for an underwriter to appraise your home, calculate risk for the loan, and decide FOR YOU if you deserve this home purchase. Essentially, you’re blind, and the underwriter/bank is deciding where you go.

Now, we all know what happens when you default multiple payments on a mortgage. So risk for mortgages is really not that bad (imo) as long as you get the appraisal right.

Now here comes the MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. Smart contract controlled mortgage provider providing instant mortgages. I don’t care what income you make, how much debt you have, what car you drive, what assets you have, how much taxes you paid, the balance on your chequing account, or your favourite colour. If someone is buying a $5m home and needs a mortgage, it’s just common sense to assume they can afford the payments. I wouldn’t ask a neurosurgeon buying a Lamborghini if they can afford the payments.

Anyway, you get the mortgage, smart contract is such that if you default on the payments after say 3 consecutive months, title is automatically transferred to MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. I’m ignoring the technical “how to’s” and the tech as that can all be figured out later.

Please tell me you WON’T use MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions if such a service existed.

@Antifragile need a development loan for a ground up storage development? How does an instant wire sound without you providing me any personal/business income statements, assets, etc. I don’t care if you can afford the deal (lol). Commercial loans would require a bit more underwriting as you don’t want to lend out $19m to have a default by the developer and be stuck with a development only worth $5m, but you get the point. The process is what matters.

I’m currently working to get a mortgage and the first email with the banker is already a hassle. I feel as if they’re essentially controlling my future (and they are) and I’m not comfortable with that. We put too much trust in banks and still get treated like shit.

Any thoughts?

It’s a better process of course, but is it a good business? Real rates are still negative. You’d have to charge a very high interest rate, like any portfolio lender, to want to keep the loans on your books and still make money.

The reason for the giant dog and pony show is so your “lender” can sell the loan to a MBS fund or a socialist company like Fannie Mae. You see, you can offer lower “market” interest rates and make money on negative yields ONLY if you sell to the socialists and if you want to sell to them, you have to do it their way.

In a truly capitalist economic environment, where the market sets the interest rates, and there’s no government entity to sell the loans to, you win all day with this idea.

Right now you’re kind of trapped. You have to pick one of these three: play the socialist game, slug it out with a super uncompetitive offering, or lose money.

 

[Vinz]

What do you do when you don't know what to do?

Write out the problem, the possible solutions, the con and pros.
Write it out, brainstorm

 

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[MoneyDoc]

Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.

 

[Antifragile]

Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.

Say NO to car debt at these rates.