Question about stock market business idea

[Stock Market]

Would making a deep learning/ artificial intelligence on the stock market make wealthy (in saying it's efficient and gets 60%+ wins)? And if it does, how long would it take? Would it be the millionairel fast lane wealth lane or would it be the slow lane?

 

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[Martzee]

Would making a deep learning/ artificial intelligence on the stock market make wealthy (in saying it's efficient and gets 60%+ wins)? And if it does, how long would it take? Would it be the millionairel fast lane wealth lane or would it be the slow lane?

The stock market is mostly about human psychology and behavior. To a certain level, you can spot certain patterns in human behavior and be able to program reactions to those patterns but in my opinion, unless you teach AI to understand human psychology you won't be able to achieve any better progress in the stock market than any average investor or trader today.

For example, the company reports great earnings but the stock tanks. Why? Because the outlook was bad.
Next time, the company reports even better earnings, bad outlook, but the stock rallies hard. Why? Because the investors expected a worse than a bad outlook.
The same goes with today's market. I see people lamenting that it is out of touch with reality that the economy is bad but the market is rallying thus it is in a bubble. But, the market is not pricing in today's economy, but economy 6 months from now or one year in the future when the investors expect a better or improving economy because covid might be contained, businesses opening, etc. The market doesn't care about today's economy. It took care of today's economy in March 2020...

These are the nuances AI will not be able to pick up imho.

 

[Stock Market]

The stock market is mostly about human psychology and behavior. To a certain level, you can spot certain patterns in human behavior and be able to program reactions to those patterns but in my opinion, unless you teach AI to understand human psychology you won't be able to achieve any better progress in the stock market than any average investor or trader today.

For example, the company reports great earnings but the stock tanks. Why? Because the outlook was bad.
Next time, the company reports even better earnings, bad outlook, but the stock rallies hard. Why? Because the investors expected a worse than a bad outlook.
The same goes with today's market. I see people lamenting that it is out of touch with reality that the economy is bad but the market is rallying thus it is in a bubble. But, the market is not pricing in today's economy, but economy 6 months from now or one year in the future when the investors expect a better or improving economy because covid might be contained, businesses opening, etc. The market doesn't care about today's economy. It took care of today's economy in March 2020...

These are the nuances AI will not be able to pick up imho.

What about using algos?

 

[Martzee]

What about using algos?

I think you can use it to a certain extent, but I think you will never be able to grasp the entire craziness of humans participating in the stock market. But, if you know how to program algos I would like to work with you. I believe it can help you to at least spot certain patterns and react to them.

 

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[Stock Market]

I think you can use it to a certain extent, but I think you will never be able to grasp the entire craziness of humans participating in the stock market. But, if you know how to program algos I would like to work with you. I believe it can help you to at least spot certain patterns and react to them.

Thanks for responding so quick ! Also, I just wanted to know if putting time towards Algo-trading and creating an algorithm program is worth it.

 

[Martzee]

Thanks for responding so quick ! Also, I just wanted to know if putting time towards Algo-trading and creating an algorithm program is worth it.

That's hard to say. I do not have that experience to say. There are algos there but they are mostly programmed for certain events only like FED meetings, and HFT trading. You might be able to program an algo against the broad market, for example SPX and trade just that one ticker. In fact, I have a study in TOS and it looks at certain criteria, and based on those it tells whether to open a put side or call side of the market and then close it or let it expire for a profit. I bet it can be automated, back tested, and see. But that is as far as my knowledge goes.

 

[Stock Market]

That's hard to say. I do not have that experience to say. There are algos there but they are mostly programmed for certain events only like FED meetings, and HFT trading. You might be able to program an algo against the broad market, for example SPX and trade just that one ticker. In fact, I have a study in TOS and it looks at certain criteria, and based on those it tells whether to open a put side or call side of the market and then close it or let it expire for a profit. I bet it can be automated, back tested, and see. But that is as far as my knowledge goes.

So, would you say I should give it a try? Also, there are companies like renaissance technologies that use algos.

 

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[Mathuin]

So, would you say I should give it a try? Also, there are companies like renaissance technologies that use algos.

Yes but Renaissance Technologies has US$ 110 billion assets under management and has 200+ math geniuses building their algos. I think there is better opportunities elsewhere. Don't look for money, look for needs in the marketplace and build a business around that need.

 

[Stock Market]

Yes but Renaissance Technologies has US$ 110 billion assets under management and has 200+ math geniuses building their algos. I think there is better opportunities elsewhere. Don't look for money, look for needs in the marketplace and build a business around that need.

So your saying I should find a niche? But after the company based on that niche starts booming, wouldn't you be very busy (many hours a week) which wouldn't represent the millionaire fastlane ?

 

[Mathuin]

But after the company based on that niche starts booming, wouldn't you be very busy (many hours a week) which wouldn't represent the millionaire fastlane?

Have you read TMF ? It isn't about not having to work many hours a week. You will likely be working a lot at the start. But you are sacrificing free time now for a couple of years to hopefully earn free time for years to come. This can be through systemizing, automating, hiring managers etc to get your time back or you could try and sell the company (liquidation event) and use the proceeds to create your money system which is what MJ talks about. That is when you can get away with working much less.

The Fastlane isn't a step by step automated-blueprint-proven-system-4-hour-work-week-buy-in-a-box for 3 easy payments of $497. You are going to have to put in the work.

I am most of the way through of TMF , but I would recommend you buy it.

 

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[Stock Market]

Have you read TMF ? It isn't about not having to work many hours a week. You will likely be working a lot at the start. But you are sacrificing free time now for a couple of years to hopefully earn free time for years to come. This can be through systemizing, automating, hiring managers etc to get your time back or you could try and sell the company (liquidation event) and use the proceeds to create your money system which is what MJ talks about. That is when you can get away with working much less.

The Fastlane isn't a step by step automated-blueprint-proven-system-4-hour-work-week-buy-in-a-box for 3 easy payments of $497. You are going to have to put in the work.

I am most of the way through of TMF , but I would recommend you buy it.

Yes, of course, you will be working a lot in the start, but even when it booms and you make profits, won't you still be working a lot? For example, company owners like Elon Musk or Jim Simons still work many hours a week even with their successful companies. What I want to know is if finding a niche and creating a company can be an automated system where, when you create something with magnitude and scale, you won't need to work 80 hours a week as the CEO/owner of your company.

 

[BizyDad]

I think you can use it to a certain extent, but I think you will never be able to grasp the entire craziness of humans participating in the stock market. But, if you know how to program algos I would like to work with you. I believe it can help you to at least spot certain patterns and react to them.

An estimated 80% of trading volume is done by machines.

Rhetorical question... Why would he work with you after you just totally shot down the idea?

Would making a deep learning/ artificial intelligence on the stock market make wealthy (in saying it's efficient and gets 60%+ wins)? And if it does, how long would it take? Would it be the millionairel fast lane wealth lane or would it be the slow lane?

These are questions you should answer for yourself.

If you can't make certain assumptions, use them to estimate your rate of return on 60% wins, and calculate how long it would take, then I would suggest you find some other path to wealth. This one requires way more math, and you aren't even willing to do algebra.

That said, nobody knows better than you what you are capable of. So if you believe you can do this, don't listen to me or anyone else that says no.

Go out there and find out if your trading algo can make you rich. Good luck.

 

[Stock Market]

An estimated 80% of trading volume is done by machines.

Rhetorical question... Why would he work with you after you just totally shot down the idea?



These are questions you should answer for yourself.

If you can't make certain assumptions, use them to estimate your rate of return on 60% wins, and calculate how long it would take, then I would suggest you find some other path to wealth. This one requires way more math, and you aren't even willing to do algebra.

That said, nobody knows better than you what you are capable of. So if you believe you can do this, don't listen to me or anyone else that says no.

Go out there and find out if your trading algo can make you rich. Good luck.

May I know your perspective on this: Yes, of course, you will be working a lot in the start, but even when it booms and you make profits, won't you still be working a lot? For example, company owners like Elon Musk or Jim Simons still work many hours a week even with their successful companies. What I want to know is if finding a niche and creating a company can be an automated system where, when you create something with magnitude and scale, you won't need to work 80 hours a week as the CEO/owner of your company.

 

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