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Investment Manager - Does it make CENTS?

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
Hello!

I was looking for some feedback on a business model that I've been dreaming (and acting upon for a long time).

Backstory:
2016: I was introduced to the stock market back from a friend. I discovered many different strategies like dividend investing, value, growth, etc.
2017: I got screwed over during the crypto craze but I lost mostly from investing in resources rather crypto itself (signal services, programs).
2018 / 2019: Studied a bit of Forex and assembled some trading models but moved on since Forex is a$$.
2020: Did alot of research on Futures and options and got into options trading. Invested alot of time and seeing nice results so far.
2021: Deposited funds into an account and tracking results for investors.

My question is, is managing capital for clients considered SCRIPTED?
I understand that Wall Street is considered rigged from the books that MJ wrote, but here is my reasoning via CENTS.

Control: The worst case is the reliance on the Stock Market. However, I did a bunch of testing and found way to negate risk and solid returns.
Entry: Obvious mantras like 99% traders fail and people going after large returns but don't worry about the large risks.
Need: People want solid records, without a doubt if I can prove that I have what it takes, the need is there.
Time: Atmost, I would only need to spent about 15 minutes per month to rebalance portfolios. That's about 3 hours / year (15 * 12 months). Most months, I would do nothing!
Scale: The US Market is the biggest in the world. My portfolios also use ETFs and the daily volume scale over 30mm. If liquidity is an issue, I would move to Mutual Funds, but that is unlikely.

My Current Plan:
I started tracking a portfolio for my investors since Feb 2021.
So far I have 2 people that are interested and love my transparency and support.
My family plan on allocating 100k into the conservative portfolio end of June 2021.
By 2022, I plan on making calls to Angel investing organizations and list my business to raise more capital.

Does it make CENTS?
 

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sap_LA

New Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
May 20, 2021
3
1
14
Hello!

I was looking for some feedback on a business model that I've been dreaming (and acting upon for a long time).

Backstory:
2016: I was introduced to the stock market back from a friend. I discovered many different strategies like dividend investing, value, growth, etc.
2017: I got screwed over during the crypto craze but I lost mostly from investing in resources rather crypto itself (signal services, programs).
2018 / 2019: Studied a bit of Forex and assembled some trading models but moved on since Forex is a$$.
2020: Did alot of research on Futures and options and got into options trading. Invested alot of time and seeing nice results so far.
2021: Deposited funds into an account and tracking results for investors.

My question is, is managing capital for clients considered SCRIPTED?
I understand that Wall Street is considered rigged from the books that MJ wrote, but here is my reasoning via CENTS.

Control: The worst case is the reliance on the Stock Market. However, I did a bunch of testing and found way to negate risk and solid returns.
Entry: Obvious mantras like 99% traders fail and people going after large returns but don't worry about the large risks.
Need: People want solid records, without a doubt if I can prove that I have what it takes, the need is there.
Time: Atmost, I would only need to spent about 15 minutes per month to rebalance portfolios. That's about 3 hours / year (15 * 12 months). Most months, I would do nothing!
Scale: The US Market is the biggest in the world. My portfolios also use ETFs and the daily volume scale over 30mm. If liquidity is an issue, I would move to Mutual Funds, but that is unlikely.

My Current Plan:
I started tracking a portfolio for my investors since Feb 2021.
So far I have 2 people that are interested and love my transparency and support.
My family plan on allocating 100k into the conservative portfolio end of June 2021.
By 2022, I plan on making calls to Angel investing organizations and list my business to raise more capital.

Does it make CENTS?
What country are you in? This makes a massive difference in terms of starting up as a broker/dealer.

The range of possible services that can be provided in nearly limitless with a large number of really popular figures in the space finally getting with the times.
The real concern here is that, in the US specifically, it is extremely expensive to
Go right into dealing securities.

On the flip side, if you have investors and are being transparent, start a podcast and YT, talk about your thesis and targets. Increasing market literacy and introducing investing concepts to customers truly sells well.

David Rosenberg and Eric Katusa (sp?) charge like 3,500 a year for their email newsletters alone. The email does contain reports and these guys have teams to do work for them. Just giving you an example.

I think being a financial manager and planner is certainly CENTS.

The TIME aspect is interesting because you’ll likely spend a lot of time researching but the funny part is, if you are investing and enjoy it, you are already doing this.

In regards to need, people in general need guidance, lower costs, and financial instruments explained to them. There is a ton of this available, but the need seems to always be growing anyway.
Hope this helps. Go find every big finance guy on YT and at your book store and try to understand how they monetize outside of security sales directly, you might be surprised.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
@sap_LA

Thanks for the response!

I am in the US at this point.

Of course there is alot of research put into this business model.

In the US: Cost of setting up a fund is actually minor.
The large costs that you believe are from licensing and registration, but as a small startup, you don't need to do that.
Under specific conditions:
If you have < 15 clients or AUM < 15mm.

Doing small math, by the time you have either one of these, you should be fine with registering.

The biggest issue I have with these people that you mention is this: They don't actually trade. period.

They are not traders / investors. Instead, they are stock pickers.
Newsletters are nothing new in the financial world. There are research papers that studied newsletters of these "financial gurus" and determined that they are no better than a dart throwing monkey.

In terms of your look on TIME; Research is always considered a factor in any business.
However, I look at time in terms of what I have to do. In this case I spend around 15 minutes rebalancing portfolios.
If I'm lazy, I can code a bot to trade for me (streamlined the process).
If my business becomes bigger, I would spend 30 minutes / month filing statements for clients.
Still less than 40 hours per week.

One of my prospectors have mentioned this "In this market, everyone is a trader".
This is true, but from my research; the portfolios survive bear markets without any issues.
That was the goal in mind for designing my portfolios. Safety first.

Thanks again!
Hope other's can provide some feedback!
 

humananalytics

Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Jun 7, 2020
39
71
107
USA
It's not easy to get into this business without hard credentials. If you have very rich family and friends, it can work, but it'll basically be a handout. If you have genuinely good returns though, you can slowly grow your client base like Warren Buffet, but expect it to take 10-20 years before you become truly rich (take a look at Buffet's net worth). Currently, I work for a big Wall Street Bank, but not doing money management. Previously, I had some training in asset management though.

A few challenges below:
1) You'll probably need to manage at least 10M to make a decent living, with a 2% expense fee (2% is high unless your returns are good). The top hedge funds charge 2/20, or 2/30 (2%-3% expense fee + 20-30% of performance of the fund). However, you are not operating a hedge fund, so a 1-2% expense fee is more likely. But basically a 10M portfolio at 2% expenses = 200k/year, not including expenses. 10M is a lot to get under management for the average person, unless you are really well connected. It sounds like you are doing very basic stock investing, so 2% is probably too high.

2) Beating the market in terms of alpha, or an adjusted risk basis over a long time is very very difficult. The idea of spending just a few minutes to rebalance portfolios won't allow you to bring a better than average product to market. Many novice investors beat the market, but with a higher risk portfolio, which is actually lower returns on a risk adjusted basis. If you're beating the market now, especially in this bull economy, it doesn't really mean much. An ETF like ARKK might have had ridiculous returns, but at a ridiculous risk too.

3) Sadly the business of money management is largely prestige driven. Most investment managers get the same returns, and most of the money falls onto those who are well connected with pedigree (Harvard MBA types who worked on Wall Street). Because it is almost impossible to determine who is a good money manager, unless they have a long track record of returns like the exceptional few like Buffet, most people just want to put their money into the most pedigreed individual. It's not that you need to fall into this bucket, but if you look up most of the money managers, they all have copy and paste resumes with Ivy League MBAs. Even the "folksy" Buffet has a similar profile. This will be a hurdle you will need to overcome. Even in Silicon Valley, where they brand themselves to be more open minded, the majority of VCs are Stanford MBAs.

4) Most investors are flocking to generic index tracking ETFs and reducing the money they put into actively managed funds. There are still actively managed funds that are doing very well, but these are the exception and typically have a specialize investment thesis. Unless you have a specialized investment thesis, investors are better off putting their money into something like SPY or VTI

I don't want to be a downer here - if you have a genuinely good investment strategy, good alpha, and can prove returns over time, you will do great. However, the money management business is very saturated with players who are tackling all ends of the market from the low end (like Edward Jones) to the high end (Wall Street banks) to the highest end (billionaires who acquire full time employees to create a family office to manage money full time). The market is also trending more heavily towards ETF investing rather than paying money manager or having actively managed funds. All this being said, money and numbers talk - if your returns speak for themselves you'll succeed.
 

humananalytics

Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Jun 7, 2020
39
71
107
USA
This is true, but from my research; the portfolios survive bear markets without any issues.
That was the goal in mind for designing my portfolios. Safety first.

In terms of bear markets or crazy markets, it's almost impossible to be unscathed even if you follow mathematically correct portfolio allocation. For example, gold is supposed to be negatively correlated with equities. However, in 2021 this correlation has not occurred. So it is going to be very hard to truly protect investors from bear markets.

This is why hedge funds are a thing. They design a portfolio to generate returns in a bad market and in a good market by long/short strategies. An example of this, is a hedge fund might long Target, and short K-Mart. In a good economy, ideally Target goes up, and K-Mart still goes down because it's a crap company, and the hedge fund profits. In a bad economy, Target goes down, but K-Mart goes down even more and the hedge fund still makes money. If this is something you can explore and genuinely do well, you'll have huge returns.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
@humananalytics

Thanks for the feedback!

Without a doubt, the financial market is the most competitive in the world.
Obviously people are going to flock to the pedigrees like Buffet.
In my opinion, the reason why Buffet took 10-20 years was that technology and information wasn't there yet (No internet in the 80s).
In today's world information is vast and fast, why web design is a demand.

In term's of the expense fees, yes the amount (200k per 10mm) is not alot BUT the amount of time spent is minor.
I am exploring other avenues in the meantime like web design, etc.

Surprisingly the market is not as difficult as people make it out to be.
Kind of like Entrepreneurship to the generally public where people freak out for the massive risk.
(Note: I could be wrong / ignorant about this comparison, but I am confident in my stance) .

The issue is that people ride the market out to its fullest (both bull and bear).
People are greedy and fearful at all times.
So when the good gets tough, people only remember the tough times.
I honestly do not like the 'buy-and-hold' approach as it doesn't address the tailrisk.

If I compared myself as a startup to the Medallions and Berkshires, I am no different to the slowlaners.
I understand that your perspective that Wall Street is run by the megafunds but 80% of hedge funds make about 4-5% / year.
Once again people will point at Medallions and Buffets but people will always compare.
"Starting a tech company? Look at Apple and Google! You'll never beat them!"

People will always flock to VTI / SPY / FINAX (Index funds).
But the issue is that buy-and-hold doesn't address tailrisk.
If the market tanks -50% like in 2008 and -35% in 2020, people panic and lose.
My portfolio is designed specifically to address tailrisk while preserving growth.

Don't even get me started on dividend investing.

Thanks again!
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
You could try eToro for copy trading and Build followership there
Thanks for the suggestion!

I have looked into those trading signal services and found it not worth to scale.
What I've been doing is funding an account with a legit broker and collecting a live record for clients.

The reason why I don't like eToro is that I prefer to work intimately with investors rather than small "traders".
I value portfolio managing more than just sending signals out to 'robinhooders'.

Quality > Quantity

Thanks!
 

BooBoosHelix

Contributor
Sep 19, 2017
26
30
19
33
Germany
Ok I don’t know if I understood you wrong but with eToro you don’t send signals out. You just build your portfolio and people can copy it. The most copied trader there is Jaynemesis and trades with about 200M. He gets paid a couple millions every year from eToro. Not to bad.
The best financial investing YouTuber I know (the popular investor) also trades there under RobertMERC.
There is also a guy called CamperVans who trades for 2 of the richest 10 and still does eToro. I guess you should seriously consider it as it has the lowest entry barrier and you can build yourself a name rather quick.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
Ok I don’t know if I understood you wrong but with eToro you don’t send signals out. You just build your portfolio and people can copy it. The most copied trader there is Jaynemesis and trades with about 200M. He gets paid a couple millions every year from eToro. Not to bad.
The best financial investing YouTuber I know (the popular investor) also trades there under RobertMERC.
There is also a guy called CamperVans who trades for 2 of the richest 10 and still does eToro. I guess you should seriously consider it as it has the lowest entry barrier and you can build yourself a name rather quick.
I have taken the liberty and opened an eToro.
After further verification and documents, I am unable to open any stock positions; only crypto.

Kind of a bummer that a broker that supports USA residents only offer crypto and not forex/ stocks.
The reason is that eToro doesn't actually own stocks, but rather CFDs.

Moving forward I'll start a small portfolio focuses solely on my crypto strategy (even though I can't safeguard it with bonds).

Thanks for the further insight, will see how this eToro journey goes.
 

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Kevin88660

Gold Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Feb 8, 2019
1,442
1,638
474
Singapore
Hello!

I was looking for some feedback on a business model that I've been dreaming (and acting upon for a long time).

Backstory:
2016: I was introduced to the stock market back from a friend. I discovered many different strategies like dividend investing, value, growth, etc.
2017: I got screwed over during the crypto craze but I lost mostly from investing in resources rather crypto itself (signal services, programs).
2018 / 2019: Studied a bit of Forex and assembled some trading models but moved on since Forex is a$$.
2020: Did alot of research on Futures and options and got into options trading. Invested alot of time and seeing nice results so far.
2021: Deposited funds into an account and tracking results for investors.

My question is, is managing capital for clients considered SCRIPTED?
I understand that Wall Street is considered rigged from the books that MJ wrote, but here is my reasoning via CENTS.

Control: The worst case is the reliance on the Stock Market. However, I did a bunch of testing and found way to negate risk and solid returns.
Entry: Obvious mantras like 99% traders fail and people going after large returns but don't worry about the large risks.
Need: People want solid records, without a doubt if I can prove that I have what it takes, the need is there.
Time: Atmost, I would only need to spent about 15 minutes per month to rebalance portfolios. That's about 3 hours / year (15 * 12 months). Most months, I would do nothing!
Scale: The US Market is the biggest in the world. My portfolios also use ETFs and the daily volume scale over 30mm. If liquidity is an issue, I would move to Mutual Funds, but that is unlikely.

My Current Plan:
I started tracking a portfolio for my investors since Feb 2021.
So far I have 2 people that are interested and love my transparency and support.
My family plan on allocating 100k into the conservative portfolio end of June 2021.
By 2022, I plan on making calls to Angel investing organizations and list my business to raise more capital.

Does it make CENTS?
It is mainly about the entry in this space and other things tend to take care of themselves.

Well what do I mean by that. You are in the business of capturing alpha. So what advantage do you over over competitors in this space? U.S. etfs are well studied by quants with computing and math phd and their built their moats through proprietary models and better access to many raw data.

I think if you are interested in the space you got to dive deep into niches that no one talks about. Preferably fundamentally oriented. Value investing in small cap F&B stocks in Vietnam for instance, Microcap altcoins of the transactional tax genre pre coin market cap listing...Build your first pot of gold before people even think this is even investable/not a scam.

My opinion is that there is no much alpha left in the those large and highly liquid market for small players.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
It is mainly about the entry in this space and other things tend to take care of themselves.

Well what do I mean by that. You are in the business of capturing alpha. So what advantage do you over over competitors in this space? U.S. etfs are well studied by quants with computing and math phd and their built their moats through proprietary models and better access to many raw data.

I think if you are interested in the space you got to dive deep into niches that no one talks about. Preferably fundamentally oriented. Value investing in small cap F&B stocks in Vietnam for instance, Microcap altcoins of the transactional tax genre pre coin market cap listing...Build your first pot of gold before people even think this is even investable/not a scam.

My opinion is that there is no much alpha left in the those large and highly liquid market for small players.
Thanks for the feedback!

What many people think about the financial market is that they need some quasi-ai model to make it.
I disagree with this because I've been through all that with coding, testing, deploying.
I was introduced to this stuff back in 2016 via Dividend investing.
5 years later, my biggest breakthrough is that simplicity is the key.

None of that machine learning, AI, astrology, pairs trading, derivative of an integral stuff.
Then there's people that think they need to dive into the cosmos across the unknown universe and find the holy grail symbol/ ticker.

What you've listed is basically a penny stock mentality that I've seen many people do.
It's glorified gambling.
I'm currently in a few 'mastermind' groups that search for pre-sale icos and attempt to bank on them.
How are they doing? Meh at best, lost it all at worst.

As for what I've been working on, they are designed in a way that the portfolio's correlation vs. SPY is < 30%.
I'm not after penny stocks, ipo, ico, dn.

Only time will tell.
Thanks again!
 

humananalytics

Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Jun 7, 2020
39
71
107
USA
Once again people will point at Medallions and Buffets but people will always compare.
"Starting a tech company? Look at Apple and Google! You'll never beat them!"

If you have a genuinely good portfolio strategy and make great risk adjusted returns, you'll definitely succeed over time (remember you'll need a long multi-year track record for investors to trust you). However, you've made it seem that you buy a lot of index funds and spend just some time each day re-allocating.

Don't want to be a downer, but it's unlikely you'll be able to do well with this approach. You have to spend A LOT of time and energy if you want to beat the market on a risk adjusted basis. Even then it's difficult and most people can't do it. You really need a clear investment strategy and thesis.

One of my college professors started his own fund, and it delivers pretty good returns. In about 3 years since launching (but around 10 years total including research) he has around 200M AUM, which is fine but not spectacular. He's a PhD who also has past work experience outside academia. His process was as follows:

  1. He came up with an investment thesis
  2. He spent at least 5 years (plus additional support from hiring people) going through huge volumes of data to explore and test his thesis. However, as a research professor, it's really a cumulative of 20+ years of research.
  3. Launched fund, and has data to show the theoretical returns based on investment methodology
  4. Has slowly grown AUM over the past few years, showing above average risk adjusted returns. He also leverages his credentials and is sometimes featured on the NASDAQ exchange, CNBC, etc. Even then he's only at 200M AUM (with a fund fee of 0.40-0.70%). It's not bad money, but he needs several FTEs + regulatory overhead at this AUM, so it's not great. He will probably only REALLY make money at 500m+ AUM.
My point is you can beat the market, and you can make this business work. However, to succeed you'll need a lot of time and effort. This business only scales quickly if you already have a track record and an impressive pedigree - if you do people will throw money at you. If you don't have either, expect slow growth for the first 5-10 years.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
If you have a genuinely good portfolio strategy and make great risk adjusted returns, you'll definitely succeed over time (remember you'll need a long multi-year track record for investors to trust you). However, you've made it seem that you buy a lot of index funds and spend just some time each day re-allocating.

Don't want to be a downer, but it's unlikely you'll be able to do well with this approach. You have to spend A LOT of time and energy if you want to beat the market on a risk adjusted basis. Even then it's difficult and most people can't do it. You really need a clear investment strategy and thesis.

One of my college professors started his own fund, and it delivers pretty good returns. In about 3 years since launching (but around 10 years total including research) he has around 200M AUM, which is fine but not spectacular. He's a PhD who also has past work experience outside academia. His process was as follows:

  1. He came up with an investment thesis
  2. He spent at least 5 years (plus additional support from hiring people) going through huge volumes of data to explore and test his thesis. However, as a research professor, it's really a cumulative of 20+ years of research.
  3. Launched fund, and has data to show the theoretical returns based on investment methodology
  4. Has slowly grown AUM over the past few years, showing above average risk adjusted returns. He also leverages his credentials and is sometimes featured on the NASDAQ exchange, CNBC, etc. Even then he's only at 200M AUM (with a fund fee of 0.40-0.70%). It's not bad money, but he needs several FTEs + regulatory overhead at this AUM, so it's not great. He will probably only REALLY make money at 500m+ AUM.
My point is you can beat the market, and you can make this business work. However, to succeed you'll need a lot of time and effort. This business only scales quickly if you already have a track record and an impressive pedigree - if you do people will throw money at you. If you don't have either, expect slow growth for the first 5-10 years.
An interesting post.

I'm actually doing what your professor has gone and currently on step 3.
Only difference is I am the sole player throughout with minor inspiration from others.

It might seem like I just buy a bunch of indexes and reallocate them but that's like a financial advisor showing you a basket of indexes to buy since they're "diversified".

In reality, a basket of indexes are not truly diversified.

That's was one of my design goals for a thesis:
Designed a portfolio that is uncorrelated with the SPY that has a solid risk-adjusted return.

Unfortunately, I'm not able to show how much time I spent researching, coding, and deploying my ideas here, sleepless nights of just researching.

There will be overhead from the regulatory eventually (once you are required to register).
I honestly feel that hiring people is not worth it, (aside from a tax accountant and maybe a PA).
Academia people approach things with academia.
Load up terabytes of data to find an edge to compete with HFTs.

One final statement, if everything is setup, you don't need to dedicate a ton of time executing the investment strategy.

For me it's been streamlined to where I can teach my neighbor how to execute the strategy.
Once a month.

In that time, I can continue to research or focus on another business venture.

Thanks!
 

thechosen1

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 25, 2020
1,060
1,752
545
25
Are you good at sales?

This is a business that revolves around Assets Under Management, not investment returns.

There are massive funds that lag behind the market and still make billions because people invest in them anyway to "diversify."

What you really need to do is hire as many investment salespeople as possible and have a pretty dang simple set of rules and instructions for how the company handles everyone's money.

Look at Edward Jones. The sales guys don't have real businesses - but they work for one, and it is massive.
 

hexelbyte

New Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 31, 2021
17
8
13
Houston, TX
Are you good at sales?

This is a business that revolves around Assets Under Management, not investment returns.

There are massive funds that lag behind the market and still make billions because people invest in them anyway to "diversify."

What you really need to do is hire as many investment salespeople as possible and have a pretty dang simple set of rules and instructions for how the company handles everyone's money.

Look at Edward Jones. The sales guys don't have real businesses - but they work for one, and it is massive.
I do not have enough experience in sales (23 years old). I should make an introduction post on FLF.
However, I've been focusing on Web Design revamped around @Fox 's book/ youtube channel.
Also been networking around my local area (Texas) for a mentor.

What I identify is the competitive advantage that I have vs. other funds.
If I can provide a solid track record and compare them to the others, perhaps people are convinced to invest in my portfolio.

I didn't think about hiring a marketing team, I might in the future.
Those people are known as a consulting firm, a venture that I might go down in starting with Web Design.

At this point of my career, I am building a track record and finding clients by mouth.
Refer to my previous posts, the upkeep/ initial cost is minimal and time is not an issue.

Thanks!
 

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