Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

[Andreas Thiel]

Genius thread idea. Love the examples. Something that surprised me: RE in Germany has become crazy - little supply, insane prices ... but a few days ago a colleague mentioned that after years of seeing hardly any interesting listings they saw 6 very interesting ones in one week. Don't know how fast they are sold or how much they go for .... but I think such an increase in listings might also tell a story.

 

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[Johnny boy]

Girlfriend noticed prices of groceries going up last trip to the store. Cars are expensive as F*ck but that is other factors.

I think it’s primarily an effect of opening back up and running into supply problems, but inflation is still a concern.

Gives you more and more reasons to build a business. Prices go up, so do ours. We are doing business in today’s dollar, paying in today’s dollar, profiting in today’s dollar. Time to take out big loans lol.

 

[Lyinx]

Girlfriend noticed prices of groceries going up last trip to the store. Cars are expensive as f*ck but that is other factors.

I think it’s primarily an effect of opening back up and running into supply problems, but inflation is still a concern.

Gives you more and more reasons to build a business. Prices go up, so do ours. We are doing business in today’s dollar, paying in today’s dollar, profiting in today’s dollar. Time to take out big loans lol.

All good till SHTF - but I know that's where you love to be so this rolls right with your workstyle

 

[WJK]

All good till SHTF - but I know that's where you love to be so this rolls right with your workstyle

We're having a LOT of supply line problems. I went to Home Depot this week and some of their shelves are half empty. It was the same at Walmart. I'm also having the same problem with ordering stuff.

 

[Timmy C]

Australians biggest hardware store bunnings and they ran out of stock.

I took this the other week...
There’s a problem and only 10% or less of ppl are seeing it.

Shit is so broken.

 

[Lyinx]

View attachment 38252

Australians biggest hardware store bunnings and they ran out of stock.

I took this the other week...
There’s a problem and only 10% or less of ppl are seeing it.

Shit is so broken.

last night had a building contractor/builder - small operation - he said there's no problem getting wood in time, said he met up with a guy that cuts trees, and that fellow said they can barely find sawmills willing to buy (they have that much wood)
he claimed it's the largest distributors (like 4 or 5 companies) in the US that are causing this wood shortage/price increase.
and then there's guys that are running on the last skid of lumber, they could be out of wood by the end of the week if their shipment doesn't come in (as of a few weeks ago, anyway)

another fellow works at a small lumber supply place, he said that they are getting a lot of smaller orders (his thoughts, people aren't building large projects as much, and doing more re-models/repairs/etc... instead of doing a complete new building)

 

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[Johnny boy]

All good till SHTF - but I know that's where you love to be so this rolls right with your workstyle

healthy margins, an industry that resists change, a basic service that sells itself (the grass keeps on growing), and we have very low fixed costs. I'm not scared of a loan. If 50% of our customers cancelled on us for some reason, they are locked into a contract, but I could just easily fire a couple employees and have the same profit margins, just scaled back a little.

 

[Kak]

Reading headlines like that is why the media isn't worth listening too.

I haven't read the article yet, but fears of inflation cause a sell off?

Inflation is good for assets... This is how clueless these people are lol.

Good might be the wrong word, but yes… Shockingly high inflation numbers have twice driven people into a mild sell off which is essentially buying dollars… LOL

 

[Kak]

healthy margins, an industry that resists change, a basic service that sells itself (the grass keeps on growing), and we have very low fixed costs. I'm not scared of a loan. If 50% of our customers cancelled on us for some reason, they are locked into a contract, but I could just easily fire a couple employees and have the same profit margins, just scaled back a little.

This is something I never thought I would say, but I’m jealous of this business model and you are playing this exactly how I would.

I am actually looking for a local service business to buy right now to fold in with the standby generators. Of course, I like my other stuff too… But this is just particularly close to home and simple.

 

[Johnny boy]

This is something I never thought I would say, but I’m jealous of this business model and you are playing this exactly how I would.

I am actually looking for a local service business to buy right now to fold in with the standby generators. Of course, I like my other stuff too… But this is just particularly close to home and simple.

When I sometimes look at the startups out there that shake a few hands and call themselves the uber of dildos or something and get 30 million bucks from sequoia capital, I get a little jealous. Grass is greener lol

 

[jdm667]

When I sometimes look at the startups out there that shake a few hands and call themselves the uber of dildos or something and get 30 million bucks from sequoia capital, I get a little jealous. Grass is greener lol

No need to get jealous. Just declare yourself the Uber of Lawn Care, get yourself some of that sweet, sweet venture capital, and raise your prices. When your customers complain, tell them the increase is transitory.

 

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[Deleted78083]

Last week, I was buying my ribeyes for €10/kg.

This week, they were at €12.95/kg.

 

[Lyinx]

healthy margins, an industry that resists change, a basic service that sells itself (the grass keeps on growing), and we have very low fixed costs. I'm not scared of a loan. If 50% of our customers cancelled on us for some reason, they are locked into a contract, but I could just easily fire a couple employees and have the same profit margins, just scaled back a little.

had an interesting discussion lately about holding people accountable (as in, with their contracts or otherwise)

in this case, contracts are not worth an awful lot if you have to enforce them by going to small claims court, unless they are high-dollar contracts.

The discussion that we had (me and others in our shop) how do you hold a shipping company responsible for a lost product? Answer: you've got to take them to court, there is no other way. you can quit shipping with them, or you can rate them badly, but it doesn't hold them accountable (and even if you prove it in court, that still doesn't mean they'll pay up) Overall, was a very eye-opening scenario about control (and lack thereof)

 

[Antifragile]

MacroVoices #272 David Rosenberg: Inflation Will Be Transitory

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to the show where he explains why he still sees deflation as the governing force, and why he disagrees with the suddenly all-popular inflation narrative. Free 30-Day Trial to Rosenberg R...

feedproxy.google.com

Worth a listen. Rosenberg takes in inflation claims. Sides with the Fed. He makes compelling arguments.

 

[Sethamus]

Either way it looks to be hyper-fill in the blank. Different outcomes and strategies to protect yourself, neither will be good for us.

 

[Timmy C]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

TrAnSiTOry!

 

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[socaldude]

Worth a listen. Rosenberg takes in inflation claims. Sides with the Fed. He makes compelling arguments

We have to remember though, the Fed lives in its own little bubble and uses different criteria to gauge inflation. When they say it’s low and transitory they mean it for them. And good enough for THEM to keep rates low. They have way more discretion and flexibility.

Tomorrow gas and groceries could double and it wouldn’t make a difference to them.

 

[WJK]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

TrAnSiTOry!

I can't see around the corner, but I can make a good guess based on the past. I think we're going to have inflation for a while coupled with a very small growth rate in our economy. Many of our supply chains are broken right now. That has caused our stores to have empty shelves and long lead times on orders.. the government is handing out money like candy... which leads to too many dollars chasing too few goods... which then leads to high prices -- AKA inflation.

When the supply lines fill those shelves and backorders, we can easily have deflation -- prices decreasing to levels below our starting point -- which can be worse than inflation. A lot of the "loose" money is already spent. Inflation will spur people to buy ASAP before the prices go up. But, deflation will cause people to close their wallets and wait for the market to bottom out. That reluctance to buy pushes prices further down. It becomes a self-inflicted downward spiral.

Only time will tell where we end up.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

On the flipside, I had to go to Walmart and buy some vinegar and saw 15c avocadoes in the produce section.

That's damn cheap. Have to admit, haven't seen a 15c avocado in years.

 

[Antifragile]

On the flipside, I had to go to Walmart and buy some vinegar and saw 15c avocadoes in the produce section.

That's damn cheap. Have to admit, haven't seen a 15c avocado in years.

Are you sure it wasn’t $1.50? Seems too cheap. Here I buy them in CND$ and they are around a $1 a piece.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Are you sure it wasn’t $1.50? Seems too cheap. Here I buy them in CND$ and they are around a $1 a piece.

I had to double check myself, just didn't seem right.

But yea, 15c!

 

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[Saad Khan]

Well in Pakistan as far as I know, PC components doubled in price last year (short supply), especially GPUs

 

[LeszekM]

Here in Poland our financial sources told about the highest inflation in the whole Europe.

As i see rates of all good has raised some less but some much more. Also availability of car parts / electronic parts / bikes / cars are so restricted.
From my personal sources if you order a bike or some electronic parts they will be provided due to Dec 2021. Earlier it used to be in stock or 2-3 weeks for delivery.

On the flipside, I had to go to Walmart and buy some vinegar and saw 15c avocadoes in the produce section.

That's damn cheap. Have to admit, haven't seen a 15c avocado in years.

Food prices raises a bit @MJ DeMarco referring to avocado it was $1.36 now it is $1.63
15c for avocado it is worth move to US

Our government has created sugar TAX few months ago for all sweetened drinks. Price of Coke used to be $1.19/1.75l now it is $1.72 for same volume.

 

[Deleted70138]

I have to pay $2.5 per avocado. That's unfair.
Here in Georgia prices has been deflating in USD (as local currency has inflated 20% compared to USD, but prices still have remained same).

 

[socaldude]

That's damn cheap. Have to admit, haven't seen a 15c avocado in years.

It’s probably a loss leader. Lose money on one item to get you into the store to buy other items.

Powerful marketing technique.

 

[Kak]

‘Shrinkflation’: The Latest Consequence of Reckless Federal Spending, Explained | Brad Polumbo

There’s a new inflation consequence hitting consumers: “Shrinkflation.” Some companies are dealing with inflation in their supply costs by shrinking the sizes of their products, to avoid the customer backlash that comes with raising sticker prices.

fee.org

Super interesting

 

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[Timmy C]

‘Shrinkflation’: The Latest Consequence of Reckless Federal Spending, Explained | Brad Polumbo

There’s a new inflation consequence hitting consumers: “Shrinkflation.” Some companies are dealing with inflation in their supply costs by shrinking the sizes of their products, to avoid the customer backlash that comes with raising sticker prices.

fee.org

Super interesting

Very interesting and something they have already been doing for years now.

 

[Lyinx]

It’s probably a loss leader. Lose money on one item to get you into the store to buy other items.

Powerful marketing technique.

yeah - for a bit... but can also be a downside with the internet... I look for loss-leaders, and buy them online - free shipping, and I don't have to buy anything else if I need anything else.
we buy toilet paper and paper towels online from Walmart, get it shipped to our shop, no shipping, instead of buying for a higher price (in-store) at our regular shopping spot. Plus, no need to drive anywhere.

 

[Lyinx]

Boots on the ground:

Cheese - someone was selling cheese to the government for their food boxes/program that they were handing out, very impressed with the ingenuity used to first get the contract and then how they filled it - very awesome! Aslo benefitted with the up/down swings in cheese pricing due to the demand for cheese over the program, he bought low and sold high

Poly lawn furniture - said that he can see the day that they shut down for a few days due to lack of materials to make the furniture.

Puppy market : prices going down a bit, some folks in our area sell puppies (most have 6-10 dogs) said the price is the deciding factor now. 6 months ago you could put double price on the dog and it would still sell.

 

[c4n]

‘Shrinkflation’: The Latest Consequence of Reckless Federal Spending, Explained | Brad Polumbo

There’s a new inflation consequence hitting consumers: “Shrinkflation.” Some companies are dealing with inflation in their supply costs by shrinking the sizes of their products, to avoid the customer backlash that comes with raising sticker prices.

fee.org

Super interesting

This has been going on in Europe since around 2008 I believe.

A simple example: milk chocolate's "standard" size used to be 100g (3.52 oz). Then all of a sudden it was reduced to 80g (2.82 oz). The price and width/length remained the same, they just became 20% thinner.