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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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MJ DeMarco

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I think we put in a market top on Real Estate and here's my sign:

Two months ago I flew to Utah to look at this house. It was listed for $2.79M.

I liked it and considered making an offer, but had a few more houses to look at. Before I could make a decision, it went under contract and sold for list.


Fast forward to today and the new owners put it up at $3.79 -- in short, they want to make $1M for doing nothing other than buying a house, sitting on it for 45 days, and relisting it. They didn't even stage it or anything, just reposted the original pictures from the listing.

Uh, no.

Insanity like this is why we've reached a top.

I don't think people are this stupid, especially when they have $4M to blow.
 

Ahash31

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I think we put in a market top on Real Estate and here's my sign:

Two months ago I flew to Utah to look at this house. It was listed for $2.79M.

I liked it and considered making an offer, but had a few more houses to look at. Before I could make a decision, it went under contract and sold for list.


Fast forward to today and the new owners put it up at $3.79 -- in short, they want to make $1M for doing nothing other than buying a house, sitting on it for 45 days, and relisting it. They didn't even stage it or anything, just reposted the original pictures from the listing.

Uh, no.

Insanity like this is why we've reached a top.

I don't think people are this stupid, especially when they have $4M to blow.
It’s certainly a data point. Houses over 2 mil operate and sell a little differently than the 250-1m range. This seems outrageous from my perspective as a real estate listing broker because if I thought I could get 3.7 I would have never sold it for 2.7m. Sometimes there is the rare occasion where a house is almost negligently underpriced but I don’t think this is the case here.

Personally I’ve seen somewhat of a stalemate in the market in my area. The prices and sale prices are high but there is low to no inventory. I’ve talked to numerous clients who want to, and know they could sell their house at a large equity increase but they have no where to buy, or the houses they could buy are equally as inflated.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Personally I’ve seen somewhat of a stalemate in the market in my area. The prices and sale prices are high but there is low to no inventory. I’ve talked to numerous clients who want to, and know they could sell their house at a large equity increase but they have no where to buy, or the houses they could buy are equally as inflated.

Yes, it's definitely an interesting quandry!

People can sell their homes for a huge gain, but then what? They get stuck in the same feeding frenzy and likely won't find a new place... they win on the exit, but lose on the entry.
 

23Infinity

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So today, I went to my local grocery store to buy the retail-version of a Cheesecake Factory cheesecake. Last year it costed $19.99 for 964 grams (a big enough cake for 4-6 people). Today they have shrinkflated it hard, it's much smaller -> 680 grams for the same price (enough for 3-4 people)

Equivalent to a ~30% price increase, but they reduced the quantity instead of increasing the price. 4-5% CPI my a$$.
 

EvanOkanagan

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I just got back from the liquor store and they were selling 4-packs of beer (tall cans) asking $39 CAD. Not just one brand either there were a few. Some were still in the $16-$18 range (common price point I find).
 

GPM

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I just got back from the liquor store and they were selling 4-packs of beer (tall cans) asking $39 CAD. Not just one brand either there were a few. Some were still in the $16-$18 range (common price point I find).
Not sure about BC, but Alberta just increased the taxes HARD on alcohol. We are apparently also at war with BC and they increased and stopped a bunch of imports from you guys.

Makes me wonder why Canada is even a country. Perhaps we would be better off as a bunch of smaller governments/countries with less overarching control?

I have yet to meet anyone from Quebec, BC or Ontario that hates Alberta and doesn't want our products. And yet somehow the governments of each respective province is trying their hardest to screw over trade among all these areas. Seems like the common element with most issues is government.
 

SamRussell

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Not sure about BC, but Alberta just increased the taxes HARD on alcohol. We are apparently also at war with BC and they increased and stopped a bunch of imports from you guys.

Makes me wonder why Canada is even a country. Perhaps we would be better off as a bunch of smaller governments/countries with less overarching control?

I have yet to meet anyone from Quebec, BC or Ontario that hates Alberta and doesn't want our products. And yet somehow the governments of each respective province is trying their hardest to screw over trade among all these areas. Seems like the common element with most issues is government.

These sort of things make me see politicians as a group of people competing as to who can screw over their constituents the most.

.... all done in the name of "looking after them".

It's bizarre.
 

Thoelt53

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Had to replace an interior door... did not want a hollow core, wanted solid wood. Would have been $300 or more AND wait 3-6 weeks! Went to Mom & Pop lumber yard, said "Would you let me look through your bullpen" (left over doors, screwed up orders, etc.) ...rummaged through several and found a solid wood one that measured right for $50 ...cash and carry.

Lesson 1: NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE BULLPEN DURING INFLATION!
Lesson 2: Never forget Lesson 1 ...and solid wood doors are heavy
At work we’re running 9-12 week lead times for solid core wood doors. Of course we’re trying to mitigate that by using up our stock (for the past year we’ve pushed a lot of the machining work out to our supplier, it’s stupid cheap). After a heavy lean on our supplier we were able to get them to ship us 600 doors in about 2 weeks. I’m not sure where they pulled those out of their a$$, they must have screwed someone else.

There is a particleboard core shortage happening, among other things. Mineral cores have been in short supply with 9+ week lead times since May 2020.

Mind you our suppliers are sourcing these domestically, this stuff isn’t coming via container from across the world, though I’m sure some of the raw materials do, from what I know 90% or so is sourced domestically US/Canada.

Our steel costs are also going through the roof. 25% in just the past 2 weeks. I haven’t seen any crazy lead times for steel yet, but the almost constant and drastic price increases have me fearing a shortage come the end of summer/early fall.
 
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Empires

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Yes, it's definitely an interesting quandry!

People can sell their homes for a huge gain, but then what? They get stuck in the same feeding frenzy and likely won't find a new place... they win on the exit, but lose on the entry.
It doesn't work for everyone, but a great option to realize your equity is to sell your house and rent an apartment until the housing market goes back down.

Who knows how long you'll be waiting though.
 

Kak

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Went to BassPro the other day to buy a bay boat. The boat desk guy was thrilled to tell me “we got no boats, not any size, not till October and you can order one.”

Just in time for winter. Screw off.

The fact that they have a boat salesman that loves to shit on you isn’t really an inflation thing, he’s just a douche. I’d bring him into the back office and say “look bill, you are a boat salesman, and as you can see, “we got no boats” so go home and don’t come back, not even in October.”

Mark me down for a boat shortage though.
 
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biophase

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I think we put in a market top on Real Estate and here's my sign:

Two months ago I flew to Utah to look at this house. It was listed for $2.79M.

I liked it and considered making an offer, but had a few more houses to look at. Before I could make a decision, it went under contract and sold for list.


Fast forward to today and the new owners put it up at $3.79 -- in short, they want to make $1M for doing nothing other than buying a house, sitting on it for 45 days, and relisting it. They didn't even stage it or anything, just reposted the original pictures from the listing.

Uh, no.

Insanity like this is why we've reached a top.

I don't think people are this stupid, especially when they have $4M to blow.

I see things slowing down in Sedona and here in CB when it comes to $1.5m+ homes. The ones in the $500k-$750k range still go in a day. The same floorplan condo I used to own 2 years ago, I sold for $450k, just listed at $545k and had offers over $600k.

I think it’s because with low rates, average salaries can afford to borrow to get into these homes. Once you start getting in the $1m+ you still need a decent salary to get into them.
 

Thoelt53

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Went to BassPro the other day to buy a bay boat. The boat desk guy was thrilled to tell me “we got no boats, not any size, not till October and you can order one.”

Just in time for winter. Screw off.

The fact that they have a boat salesman that loves to shit on you isn’t really an inflation thing, he’s just a douche. I’d bring him into the back office and say “look bill, you are a boat salesman, and as you can see, “we got no boats” so go home and don’t come back, not even in October.”
What’s a boat salesman without a boat?
 

Thoelt53

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Relevant article by Dr. Ron Paul:

 

MitchC

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Went to BassPro the other day to buy a bay boat. The boat desk guy was thrilled to tell me “we got no boats, not any size, not till October and you can order one.”

Just in time for winter. Screw off.

The fact that they have a boat salesman that loves to shit on you isn’t really an inflation thing, he’s just a douche. I’d bring him into the back office and say “look bill, you are a boat salesman, and as you can see, “we got no boats” so go home and don’t come back, not even in October.”

Mark me down for a boat shortage though.
It’s been like this with boats in Australia almost since the start of the pandemic.

People are able to sell their used boats for new prices, sometimes more, purely because there is nothing available so that’s what people have to pay.
 

KAIZOS

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Also reports of property scalping from the netherlands. Just buying and selling 6 months later with big profits.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Bought this 3 years ago, if I remember correctly I paid $26,000 plus tax license etc.

IMG_0495 2.JPG

The dealer just offered to buy it from me at more than I paid.

So I used it for 3 years for FREE, and actually "made" money? Ain't inflation wonderful?

PS: No, I'm not selling it!
 

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UNFA says the scarcity of lumber and wood products has launched the cost of raw lumber by 200-350% and is making the cost of wood pallets increase incrementally. The association noted that, in one example, pallet costs have increased more than 400% since the pandemic began, while some in the supply chain are struggling to find available pallets at all.

 

Ubu_roi

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From today's paper, in Italy:

Electricity: +9.9%*
Gas: +15.3%*

*Prices are adjusted every three months in Italy, so that's the actual increase over the previous three months.

Authorities say inflation is 1.3% year over year ;-)
 

socaldude

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Relevant article by Dr. Ron Paul:

Mind boggling that the Fed does all of this digitally. As simple as typing in a number in an excel spreadsheet. If it wasn’t for the Fed, the 10 year bond rate would be like 6%. Unthinkable for our economy.

Went to Home Depot yesterday and these haven’t budged much in price. I find being in Home Depot a little peaceful and distracting towards my negativity towards the direction of this country. Lots of side gigs possible with the tools they sell there.
06EF596A-A5BE-4804-A268-5577D2C5D161.jpeg
 

Jeannen

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Paypal increased the flat fee from $0.3 to $0.5/transaction

Typeform increased its price. Used to be $50/month for the plan that allowed to use FB pixel, now it's $80.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Kak

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GPM

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Hair cut before lockdown €15
Hair cut after lockdown €20
The lockdowns were like a war on barbers. They need to make money somehow.

Where I am they shut them down. Then told them they could open again if they renovated and moved their chairs 6' apart and put glass between them. They all spent what little money they had on renovations. A week later they were all shut down again.

Thanks government. Way to absolutely kick a whole industry in the nuts that doesn't exactly swim in cash. It is okay though, the government was there with open arms and $2,000 a month in payments to make sure they didn't starve. Nothing like shutting down a business and literally making them reliant on "government" money to get by. Better vote for them for being so nice as give you money, the other guys sure wouldn't.... (Or so goes the narrative)
 

23Infinity

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The lockdowns were like a war on barbers. They need to make money somehow.

The smart / enterprising barbers said "f*ck it" and went mobile, doing hair cuts in people's homes. I got a hair cut this way recently and paid an overpriced $50 for it, whereas I regularly only paid about $20 at my regular barber shop. I asked the guy (who was a barber prior to COVID) how he was faring post-COVID and the guy told me he's making much more money now than before.
 

23Infinity

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I talked with an owner in the roofing industry this past week and he said he's a seeing 20-25% increase on average in the cost of his inputs: materials/equipment etc. He was 100% sure that all these costs would be passed to the end customer by all roofing companies in the area.
 

thechosen1

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Home prices are getting insane - very frothy.

Some friends' beach house was bought for 300k less than 8 years ago, and now there is a similarly sized one on the market 7 hours ago listed at $1.1 million, and already has a dozen saves on Zillow with 1,000+ views...

We're talkin' $1 million plus in a market where everything is a vacation rental, the best rates only happen between June and August, and the rest of the year is essentially dead.

The house is barely 2000 square feet. This would have been a $400k-500k house a few years ago since it has a bigger deck, but still! Wow!

(oh and this is a relatively “ugly” beach in the south)
 
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