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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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WJK

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Isn't that kind of what the Great Reset was all about? f*ck everything up so that they could bring it about?

The virus was just a convenient cover IMO. Yes, I'm a conspiracy theorist.
I'm afraid it might be true. Time will tell. Part of the question is IF these self-proclaimed experts can keep this awful plan under control. It is like starting a wildfire and thinking it won't get away from them. There won't be a wind storm or hot, dry days. The economy and global factions have a lot of moving parts that cannot be predicted nor tamped down. What scares me is that these people aren't used to dealing with real situations. They have worked this all out on paper where they can limit the results by tweaking their predictions. The real world is filled with WOW moments and headstrong people who usually smash their carefully laid plans.
 

Marigold

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I'm afraid it might be true. Time will tell. Part of the question is IF these self-proclaimed experts can keep this awful plan under control. It is like starting a wildfire and thinking it won't get away from them. There won't be a wind storm or hot, dry days. The economy and global factions have a lot of moving parts that cannot be predicted nor tamped down. What scares me is that these people aren't used to dealing with real situations. They have worked this all out on paper where they can limit the results by tweaking their predictions. The real world is filled with WOW moments and headstrong people who usually smash their carefully laid plans.
Couldn't have put it better myself. In fact, I commented on another thread here the truth that the one thing the Globalist Cabal can't account for is the power of our humanity. On the other hand I think we can all agree that the capitulation of the majority of the population has been nothing short of astounding.
 

WJK

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Couldn't have put it better myself. In fact, I commented on another thread here the truth that the one thing the Globalist Cabal can't account for is the power of our humanity. On the other hand I think we can all agree that the capitulation of the majority of the population has been nothing short of astounding.
It's only a moment of "capitulation". It won't last long. People are getting restless under their thumbs. I see the trend getting stronger day by day. I was listening to an interview about the UK and the political trends there that are just a little bit ahead of the USA. Their socialist movement is foundering and capitalist factions are getting stronger right now. I expect that to happen here. It's warm and fuzzy to talk about a utopian society until you can't buy gas for your car or the local bad guy breaks down your door. Reality is a pretty powerful wake-up call.

Also, think about this. Since the socialist movement is now mainstream, there's a big group that will start pushing back. Young people, by nature, must rebel. And there's only one way for them to go. Everything is totally left right now. The kids must go toward the right in order to follow their nature and rebel. I don't know what will be their tipping point, but I know it will be a stampede.
 

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The new mainstream dog-whistling narrative is "transitory"... kinda like "10 days to slow the spread" which is now approaching 2 years.
 

WJK

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The new mainstream dog-whistling narrative is "transitory"... kinda like "10 days to slow the spread" which is now approaching 2 years.
Do you think these guys are even awake? I know they think they are "woke" -- but that's not saying they even have their eyes open. Who can miss all these red flags?????
 

NorlansV

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If it's like the last time, it will end in a crash after a "run-up" period. Interest rates on mortgages went from 12% to 21% and 22% overnight. The economy stopped dead in its tracks. When that happens, cash is king. Debt will make you a dead duck. Have a lot of food (staples) and bullets on hand since there will be riots and supply chain disruptions. Need I go on?
So, do we want to have debt before the crash to pay it out with inflated dollars?

Or is it better to avoid it, because interest rates are going to skyrocket?
 

WestCoast

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debt fixed at a low rate, will do great (well, great being the exact wrong word in this situation). Since you can pay it in hyper inflated dollars

Debt that is adjustable rate (which is what I'm close to signing my life away on via the SBA...)... well, I'm having deep deep thoughts about it now.
 

Antifragile

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So, do we want to have debt before the crash to pay it out with inflated dollars?

Or is it better to avoid it, because interest rates are going to skyrocket?
A little bit of both.
Make sure rate is fixed for whatever you borrow if you want to be conservative. Then leave enough cash to service this debt for 2x your expectation. The worst thing is getting debt, interest rates going up and being forced to sell. That’s how people go bankrupt.
 

Lyinx

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Not totally linked with hyper-inflation, but I think you guys would find it interesting none the less:
I met up with some friends, here are their answers:

shed shop (garden tools, small garages, etc..) endless work, but they are using the last skids of plywood by the time the next shipment comes in

Concrete man (does the actual work, putting concrete on the ground or in poured walls) booked solid till September, will probably work all winter (they used to quit over winter, but they can pour with additional costs such as heating blankets and tents, which people are willing to pay for right now)

Fencing: their sales guys are booked for 4 weeks in advance, running 9 or 10 appointments per day. Fencing is 4 months out (they give you an estimate, they give you 30 days price guarantee, buy the materials when you make a downpayment so that the prices don't change too much) prices have risen 20+% on aluminum, pvc, and chainlink)

Swing/childrens outdoor equipment: endless work, had to shut down the shop for two days because they ran out of lumber.

Harness shop: managing to keep up, workload is 4 to 6 weeks on custom, but you can get stock stuff fairly soon. only reason that we can do it is we hired more people and the companies that make our products are in the states. Metal hardware that is imported is a bit of a struggle sometimes. Random items run out at any given time.

Food store: Busy. will run out of something sometimes, can get a replacement at times. Weirdest things that you can't get (right not they can't get mustard)
 

NorlansV

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A little bit of both.
Make sure rate is fixed for whatever you borrow if you want to be conservative. Then leave enough cash to service this debt for 2x your expectation. The worst thing is getting debt, interest rates going up and being forced to sell. That’s how people go bankrupt.
So the key is having a fixed rate.
That makes sense.

Thanks for the clarification.
 

Lyinx

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So the key is having a fixed rate.
That makes sense.

Thanks for the clarification.
fixed rates do run out, make sure to see how many years fixed that you can get on your loan.
 

Antifragile

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So the key is having a fixed rate.
That makes sense.

Thanks for the clarification.
The key is managing cash flow. Think of it like this - cash flow for your business ventures (investments) is like oxygen for humans. You can only hold your breath for so long.
make sure you have a reserve of cash to service (make payments) on your debt regardless of what happens with the bank or interest rates. Easier said than done! As no one knows what will happen to the interest rates, inflation etc. Markets can be irrational for a long time too.
 

WJK

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So, do we want to have debt before the crash to pay it out with inflated dollars?

Or is it better to avoid it, because interest rates are going to skyrocket?
Those high interest rates started around 1980 after a round of double-digit inflation. Talk about landing with a dull thud! I owned 2 RE offices when things crashed. My partner and I closed both of them.

The end of the 1980s also saw a hot RE market in Los Angeles. Then the trend was lots of leverage financed by OPM (other people's money). It was trendy to buy anything you could with as little money out of pocket as possible. Sound familiar? That ended a little bit into the 1990s with a market-wide price collapse. Most of my buddies in RE ended up in bankruptcy court with their hats in the hands -- back at ground 0. And that one went on and on... until almost that close of that decade. It was a "Groundhog" moment that I felt like we were never going to pull out of.
(The only thing that saved me is that I had divested most of my properties in my divorce at the end of the 1980s, so my exposure was more limited. After all of that sector-wide bloodletting, I could finally see the upside of my husband running off to Taiwan to find him a more compliant wife.)

I can't speak to the 2008 melt-down. I was retired in Alaska, working in my residential rental business. That one didn't touch me personally. But, again, it took out a bunch of people that I knew in the Lower 48.

Are you seeing a pattern here? I started a thread about how fragile the commercial RE market is some months ago. And the little indicators have been replaced by huge red flags.
 

NorlansV

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Are you seeing a pattern here? I started a thread about how fragile the commercial RE market is some months ago. And the little indicators have been replaced by huge red flags.
What I’m seeing in general is that the market crashes every few years or decades, but it always recovers sooner or later.

That’s what’s happening so far at least.

Right now we’re seeing most of the western countries indebted, bigger governments, people relying on their governments to feed them, untrustworthy and corrupted politicians, the media controlled by a handful of elites, wealth inequality, more GDP% spent on the military around the world, and many other major issues threatening our civilisation.

Where is the tipping point that demands a major remodelling?
How much longer can we hide these problems?

Will the next time be different?
Will we be able to recover?
(We as the western countries)

I am still pretty young and I am very concerned about our future.

Sorry, for derailing the thread.
 

WJK

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What I’m seeing in general is that the market crashes every few years or decades, but it always recovers sooner or later.

That’s what’s happening so far at least.

Right now we’re seeing most of the western countries indebted, bigger governments, people relying on their governments to feed them, untrustworthy and corrupted politicians, the media controlled by a handful of elites, wealth inequality, more GDP% spent on the military around the world, and many other major issues threatening our civilisation.

Where is the tipping point that demands a major remodelling?
How much longer can we hide these problems?

Will the next time be different?
Will we be able to recover?
(We as the western countries)

I am still pretty young and I am very concerned about our future.

Sorry, for derailing the thread.
Yes, each time is different. The cycles have "different wrinkles", but they tend to be predictable. Yes, I think that we will survive. It's a self-correcting process.
 

c4n

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@WJK you probably missed my question, but I was wondering as you've been through this before, any tips on how do you manage the conflicting information?

I mean, on one hand, cash is king in such a crisis, but on the other hand, high inflation and the potential of USD losing the status of reserve currency would make cash worth less and less?

What's the middle-ground that you believe would keep you doing well both extremes?
 

WJK

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@WJK you probably missed my question, but I was wondering as you've been through this before, any tips on how do you manage the conflicting information?

I mean, on one hand, cash is king in such a crisis, but on the other hand, high inflation and the potential of USD losing the status of reserve currency would make cash worth less and less?

What's the middle-ground that you believe would keep you doing well both extremes?
I like to run counter to the market. I'm not a FOMO (fear of missing out) type of person. When others are on a buying binge, I'm selling. When others are selling, I'm looking for some carefully selected stud-card deals to buy.

I don't worry about hitting the exact peak of the market, either up or down. My gut is NOT that fine-tuned and this is NOT an exact science. I DO worry about waiting too long and missing the trend due to analysis paralysis. I can feel the earth moving under my feet when the market starts to move, so close to the top or the bottom is good enough for me. Like I've said before, humans are herd animals. The tipping point leaders start in a direction that creates a stampede of the followers. The speed of that change of direction can be dizzying, -- which leaves a lot of investors in the dust.

I know there is always another good deal out there. It's a matter of looking for it hard enough.
I know that the market will turn toward the other direction in its own good time. We're always somewhere in that cycle time. I like to pay attention to where we are.
I know that the rule of the 3 D's is always in play. That rule is that someone out there somewhere must dump his assets fast and cheap due to Death, Divorce, or Debt. Think of how much Bill Gates must shell out in his split. I know people who came out only with the clothes on their backs. This rule is also how I know that debt will make you a dead duck as it works its evil magic. I always want to be on the right side of this heavy-duty rule.
I know cash talks and BS walks. Either you have the cash and/or the hard assets, or you don't. There's a lot of people walking around there that present themselves well when times are good. But when the chips are down, they are nothing but a pile of bills and a chain of poor-me stories.
Note: And boy toys don't do it. They don't count. When the markets turn ugly, and they will, those shiny boats, cars, mansions, and planes are a rock around your neck. And the cute little office bimbo is right there on the list with the other boy toys. All of these "shiny objects" cost you money and attention while you're trying to keep yourself financially afloat.
I know I must have Plan B through Z for that rainy day or banner day -- which will come. I have lots of grit and I thrive in any business climate or cycle.
Note: 2020, with the virus effect, was unexpected. BUT, since we've had a change of administrations in January, and this last business cycle was unusually long -- this current financial malaise was to be expected. A lot of the indicators have been out there for a long time languishing to pounce at this moment. I prepared for this current trend during the last 4 years by retiring debts and selling off everything I could. The world around me was buying and I was selling. I think it's entirely possible that this round of inflation is going to be followed by stagflation and then some deflation. The US government and the Feds have put themselves in a box canyon that's going to be hard to climb out of. The situation is strong enough that the inflation figures are going to spook some people. I don't share their fear, but I am carefully monitoring the market trends.
It's little things. I had to raise the price of the brownies in my candy vending machine last night. Their cost has gone up when I bought more this week. And I raised a few of my rents on my rentals this last month. I know there is too much money in the economy out there, so inflation is a natural result. But, overall, I'm doing just fine.
Does that help you? I've probably told you too much, but it what is on my mind right now...
 

thechosen1

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I like to run counter to the market. I'm not a FOMO (fear of missing out) type of person. When others are on a buying binge, I'm selling. When others are selling, I'm looking for some carefully selected stud-card deals to buy.

I don't worry about hitting the exact peak of the market, either up or down. My gut is NOT that fine-tuned and this is NOT an exact science. I DO worry about waiting too long and missing the trend due to analysis paralysis. I can feel the earth moving under my feet when the market starts to move, so close to the top or the bottom is good enough for me. Like I've said before, humans are herd animals. The tipping point leaders start in a direction that creates a stampede of the followers. The speed of that change of direction can be dizzying, -- which leaves a lot of investors in the dust.

I know there is always another good deal out there. It's a matter of looking for it hard enough.
I know that the market will turn toward the other direction in its own good time. We're always somewhere in that cycle time. I like to pay attention to where we are.
I know that the rule of the 3 D's is always in play. That rule is that someone out there somewhere must dump his assets fast and cheap due to Death, Divorce, or Debt. Think of how much Bill Gates must shell out in his split. I know people who came out only with the clothes on their backs. This rule is also how I know that debt will make you a dead duck as it works its evil magic. I always want to be on the right side of this heavy-duty rule.
I know cash talks and BS walks. Either you have the cash and/or the hard assets, or you don't. There's a lot of people walking around there that present themselves well when times are good. But when the chips are down, they are nothing but a pile of bills and a chain of poor-me stories.
Note: And boy toys don't do it. They don't count. When the markets turn ugly, and they will, those shiny boats, cars, mansions, and planes are a rock around your neck. And the cute little office bimbo is right there on the list with the other boy toys. All of these "shiny objects" cost you money and attention while you're trying to keep yourself financially afloat.
I know I must have Plan B through Z for that rainy day or banner day -- which will come. I have lots of grit and I thrive in any business climate or cycle.
Note: 2020, with the virus effect, was unexpected. BUT, since we've had a change of administrations in January, and this last business cycle was unusually long -- this current financial malaise was to be expected. A lot of the indicators have been out there for a long time languishing to pounce at this moment. I prepared for this current trend during the last 4 years by retiring debts and selling off everything I could. The world around me was buying and I was selling. I think it's entirely possible that this round of inflation is going to be followed by stagflation and then some deflation. The US government and the Feds have put themselves in a box canyon that's going to be hard to climb out of. The situation is strong enough that the inflation figures are going to spook some people. I don't share their fear, but I am carefully monitoring the market trends.
It's little things. I had to raise the price of the brownies in my candy vending machine last night. Their cost has gone up when I bought more this week. And I raised a few of my rents on my rentals this last month. I know there is too much money in the economy out there, so inflation is a natural result. But, overall, I'm doing just fine.
Does that help you? I've probably told you too much, but it what is on my mind right now...
“Cash talks, BS walks.”

I love that saying. My grandpa always says it too.
 

MoneyDoc

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With regards to prices increasing, isn't that kinda expected?

High demand from consumers + supply chains still strained from C0VlD.

Demand has reached pre-pandemic rates, but supply chain certainly has not recovered. So inflation or not, increase in prices is kinda expected..
 

WJK

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With regards to prices increasing, isn't that kinda expected?

High demand from consumers + supply chains still strained from C0VlD.

Demand has reached pre-pandemic rates, but supply chain certainly has not recovered. So inflation or not, increase in prices is kinda expected..
Add a big rash of freshly printed dollars to that mix and you have the perfect inflation storm.
 

WestCoast

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I modeled a $3.5M loan to plan for what happens when rates rise.

It's dark.

Payments at 5.5% (10yr) are $38,000/month

If (when......) rates rise to just 8%, you're paying $42,000/month
Ok, an extra $4k/month, not a crippling change right?
Yeah, I guess. Not right away.

Over the life of a 10 year loan thought, the total interest amount paid, increases 40%(!). (From ~$1M to $1.4M)

That's... a lot.


--
If it goes to 10.5%, you're closing in on $44,000/month.....

Is it a deal killer?
Maybe, maybe not.

Gives me pause though, that's for certain.
 

WJK

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I modeled a $3.5M loan to plan for what happens when rates rise.

It's dark.

Payments at 5.5% (10yr) are $38,000/month

If (when......) rates rise to just 8%, you're paying $42,000/month
Ok, an extra $4k/month, not a crippling change right?
Yeah, I guess. Not right away.

Over the life of a 10 year loan thought, the total interest amount paid, increases 40%(!). (From ~$1M to $1.4M)

That's... a lot.


--
If it goes to 10.5%, you're closing in on $44,000/month.....

Is it a deal killer?
Maybe, maybe not.

Gives me pause though, that's for certain.
Yelp. You got the skinny on the problem that stops everything... RE, business, home purchases, construction... High-interest rates take the play out of the market and they do put the lid on inflation. But, this comes on the heels of this last year of shutdowns -- which has set the stage for a whole financial reordering. Like Buffet says, when the tide goes out, it exposes all those guys who have no bathing suit.
 

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