Hurricane Irma

[Aaron T]

Well, I live just west of Orlando in a town called Clermont. Tried to rent a vehicle. . . .forget it. I-75 & I-95 is a mess, but no worries. Going to stay here and stick it out. Me and the family are staying in a resort instead of our house, besides, I think it'll be a category 2 storm by the time it reaches us. First hurricane for me. Signing out, see you all next week.

I am literally in Clermont right now myself. Been through so many hurricanes, each one is unique and different in it's own way. Just be safe. Fortunately we should be spared the worse based on current track. However never underestimate even a tropical storm. These things tend to spawn off small tornadoes and that is where the real damage can come from this far out.

 

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[Aaron T]

Are you from a hurricane affected place? I was young but I remember Andrew. The whole city of Homestead was leveled.

Lost my home to Andrew. I will never forget. I bought it only a few months before. Moved north after that.

Will never forget France, Jean, Wlima either. The eyes of those all went over our area as well to various degrees! (Boca Raton)

I do hope everyone stays safe. This storm is a monster.

 

[Xavier X]

Are you from a hurricane affected place? I was young but I remember Andrew. The whole city of Homestead was leveled.

I had Frances and Jean make landfall on my hometown in 04. I watched peoples houses get destroyed and they were Cat 3.

Trust me, it's not being sensationalized. The local stations are busting their asses to give up updated info.

As a Floridian, I never get worried about hurricanes. But when you see Florida natives get worried, you know it's time to panic.

The local news stations don't particularly sensationalize it and typically present the situation as it is. I was going to add that.

It's the major news networks that make every effort to dramatize and sensationalize with unwarranted adjectives.

I'm from Massachusetts. A major tornado came through my city in 2014, destroying over 60 houses. Wind speeds at 120 mph.

I am currently on the North coast of D.R, less than a half mile from the Atlantic. This is where Irma passed.
What I saw reported on some stations and major online newspapers was only a sensational version of what's on ground here.

I have a degree in Media Production. I know when a media outlet professionally sensationalizes information to draw and retain attention (for ratings).

It's bad because they're more likely to make people panic than keep them informed.
None of this is to say people should take the warnings lightly, or that the data is false.

e.g I could tell you:

Option 1: Hurricane Irma will bring about winds upward of 150 mph, and is strong enough to cause significant damage to property.

or

Option 2: Now is a good time to remind your loved ones that you love them, as Irma's 150 mph winds will annihilate everything in its path. In a manner never seen by this planet.

 

[Deleted50669]

Literally an SOS showing when you google "Irma"

 

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[ChickenHawk]

Really? Lol.
O/T: Health - Ebola in the USA... Anyone Concerned?

The Normalcy Bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects, because it causes people to have a bias to believe that things will always function the way things normally function.

According to the normalcy bias, because Ebola in the USA, like most pandemics, amounted to very little, those who took measured precautions or monitored the situation "overreacted." Surely, this will always be the case. No pandemic will ever impact the USA, and anyone who takes simple precautions is a fool. This is why no one ever buys fire insurance for their homes or car insurance for their vehicles.

This is also why my sister isn't evacuating.

In her mind, she's been through this before, and it was no biggie. When her kids were in gradeschool, a hurricane was bearing down on them. Last-minute, she and my brother went to the store for plywood. They were out. So they spent their plywood money on beer and had a wonderful time, especially because the hurricane missed them. They had a good chuckle over that one. And then, a few years after that, she rode out a category-two hurricane. And it was fine.

So it will always be fine. Yesterday, I was urging her to leave. She said, "You DO know it's still sunny out, right? *snicker, snicker*." I said, "Yes, which means it's the perfect time to leave. You don't want to wait until the roads are flooded." She said, "Oh, we know which roads flood. If it comes to that, we'll be fine. We have a big truck. Stop worrying!"

Do I believe my sister will die in this hurricane? No. In truth, the odds are decent that she'll survive in her own home (or leave for a friend's house last-minute) and have a great story to tell someday. But why risk it? Why not take simple steps to protect yourself while you can?

But she isn't. Because of normalcy bias. It's always been fine, so this time will be fine, too. It's a great plan if the pattern holds. But every once in a while, the pattern breaks, and those who were snickering at "worry-warts" who "overreacted" get washed away or get to enjoy a nice, unique death by explosive anal bleeding. Why play the odds if precautions are relatively cheap and easy to come by?

(EDIT: I should add that my sister is in an "A" evacuation zone. This is the most-severe level. But hey, she'll be fine, because she has a truck.)

 

[Duane]

This hurricane is no joke, all my friends are boarding up their windows and getting ready to ride it out. I didn't board up my windows, but I'm pretty far inland, maybe 80-100 mph winds. I hope we all get through this unharmed.

There's a lot of opportunity to get out and help restore our communities afterwords though!

 

[KLaw]

The Normalcy Bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects, because it causes people to have a bias to believe that things will always function the way things normally function.

According to the normalcy bias, because Ebola in the USA, like most pandemics, amounted to very little, those who took measured precautions or monitored the situation "overreacted." Surely, this will always be the case. No pandemic will ever impact the USA, and anyone who takes simple precautions is a fool. This is why no one ever buys fire insurance for their homes or car insurance for their vehicles.

This is also why my sister isn't evacuating.

In her mind, she's been through this before, and it was no biggie. When her kids were in gradeschool, a hurricane was bearing down on them. Last-minute, she and my brother went to the store for plywood. They were out. So they spent their plywood money on beer and had a wonderful time, especially because the hurricane missed them. They had a good chuckle over that one. And then, a few years after that, she rode out a category-two hurricane. And it was fine.

So it will always be fine. Yesterday, I was urging her to leave. She said, "You DO know it's still sunny out, right? *snicker, snicker*." I said, "Yes, which means it's the perfect time to leave. You don't want to wait until the roads are flooded." She said, "Oh, we know which roads flood. If it comes to that, we'll be fine. We have a big truck. Stop worrying!"

Do I believe my sister will die in this hurricane? No. In truth, the odds are decent that she'll survive in her own home (or leave for a friend's house last-minute) and have a great story to tell someday. But why risk it? Why not take simple steps to protect yourself while you can?

But she isn't. Because of normalcy bias. It's always been fine, so this time will be fine, too. It's a great plan if the pattern holds. But every once in a while, the pattern breaks, and those who were snickering at "worry-warts" who "overreacted" get washed away or get to enjoy a nice, unique death by explosive anal bleeding. Why play the odds if precautions are relatively cheap and easy to come by?

(EDIT: I should add that my sister is in an "A" evacuation zone. This is the most-severe level. But hey, she'll be fine, because she has a truck.)

My sister is in middle of it. I try to look at things from her perspective. They are going to try and ride it out. I don't agree and I don't understand. But, I'm not in her shoes.
Holli Delaporte

 

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[Iammelissamoore]

Florida and neighbouring fam, I wish you guys ultimate safety, I'm hailing from the Southern Caribbean, we were not in the pathway of the hurricane, but, after seeing the damage that ripped through my Northern Caribbean neighbours territories, I ONLY hope all along the way that you guys are absolutely safe.

 

[3V0LUT10N]

I hope everyone in the path has evacuated and/or secured their property as well as they can. I took my mom and got out of New Smyrna Beach on Thursday when it was forecasted to be going up the East coast. We went to Tennessee because I figured we'd be well out of the way of the path. Now it's supposed to be going up the West coast and NSB isn't going to be that bad. I kinda wish we had stayed because I'm sure the drive back is going to suck. Oh well, better safe than sorry.

 

[rollerskates]

the F*ck you zone

I like this term.

I just survived Harvey with very little damage (we were initially in the path but ended up just outside the FU Zone), but there are shortages, and I am sure it will get worse. A lot of crops were decimated.

People in Florida, be safe, don't take risks, and like someone said you're not invincible. Praying for y'all's safety!

 

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[jon.a]

I hope everyone in the path has evacuated and/or secured their property as well as they can. I took my mom and got out of New Smyrna Beach on Thursday when it was forecasted to be going up the East coast. We went to Tennessee because I figured we'd be well out of the way of the path. Now it's supposed to be going up the West coast and NSB isn't going to be that bad. I kinda wish we had stayed because I'm sure the drive back is going to suck. Oh well, better safe than sorry.

You made the best choice you could at the time.

 

[GMSI7D]

I hope everyone in the path has evacuated and/or secured their property as well as they can. I took my mom and got out of New Smyrna Beach on Thursday when it was forecasted to be going up the East coast. We went to Tennessee because I figured we'd be well out of the way of the path. Now it's supposed to be going up the West coast and NSB isn't going to be that bad. I kinda wish we had stayed because I'm sure the drive back is going to suck. Oh well, better safe than sorry.

i am currently watching CNN and praying for you guys instead of watching stupid BS on french TV. French islands were destroyed as well in the atlantic ocean.

 

[mikey3times]

My whole family is in and around Tampa. They are all worried, but also resigned to the fact that there isn't much they can do at this point. They've done what they can and now it is time to wait it out.

It sucks being far away. I'm sure the power will go out and the cell towers will go down. It is going to be brutal not being able to contact anyone to find out how they are doing.

Stay save everyone. Our thoughts are with you all.

 

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[ChickenHawk]

My sister is in middle of it. I try to look at things from her perspective. They are going to try and ride it out.

I can see this. A lot of it, I think, depends on the risk by location. Like, if you're on the water and in an area prone to storm-surges, you're foolish to stay. If, however, you have a sturdy home inland, your odds of riding it out safely are much better. At this point, there's a risk no matter what you do.

Speaking of which, I'm happy to report that my sister is, at last, planning to evacuate. She's going inland to an area that's not in an evacuation zone. (Thank goodness!) I just hope she makes it in time.

 

[Get Right]

Just for comparison: In 2004 Hurricane Ivan dead centered us. A weak Cat 3. Barbaric destruction.

BTW - this is my street. The same one you see me building spec homes on.

 

[ChickenHawk]

BTW - this is my street. The same one you see me building spec homes on.

Holy crap!

 

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[ALC]

Stay safe guys! St Barths got some serious damages, yesterday night i've been watching interviews of french people who were saying that nearly 95% of the city had been destroyed...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Really? Lol.
O/T: Health - Ebola in the USA... Anyone Concerned?

Sorry, but I don't trust anything the corporate media tells me. So yes, I will overreact, or underreact dependent on what their pre-approved narrative is. Can an armchair entrepreneur like you understand that? Probably not, you're too busy critiquing everyone from your Lazy-Boy. LOL back at ya.

 

[Duane]

Seen this on my way home today. My neighbors are a trip.

 

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[throttleforward]

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

Tampa is uniquely unprepared for this storm, as currently modeled. All indications are that it's rapidly intensifying. Should the current model consensus be accurate, Tampa could be under a worst-case storm surge senario.

 

[GMSI7D]

Stay safe guys! St Barths got some serious damages, yesterday night i've been watching interviews of french people who were saying that nearly 95% of the city had been destroyed...

yes there were gusts up to 225 mph. ( 360 km/h) . no building can bear such an energy without any damage

 

[ChickenHawk]

(I always feel funny "liking" posts that contain terrible news or grim predictions. When I hit the "like" button, I feel like I'm saying, "Whoohoo! Bad news." But what I mean to say is, "Thanks for the update" or "Wow, that's really interesting" or "stay safe".)

It's nice to see so many people weighing in. I'm in Northern Alabama, btw. It's going to hit us on Monday/Tuesday, at which point it will be a shadow of its current self with rain, unseasonably cool temperatures, and 17 mph winds. And I literally live on a top of a mountain, so there's always zero chance of flooding.

Take care, Floridians!

 

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[Deleted50669]

Can't help but wonder which oil behemoth is paying CNN to hyperbolize the conditions... spurring gasoline and plastic bottle consumption.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[throttleforward]

The max gust reported in St. Barts was around 150mph.

I don't think anyone should be suprised to see gusts in Flordia of around 130mph (and sustained 100-130mph within 5-10 miles of the eyewall).

Assuming the eyewall scrapes the west coast of Flordia (which is a very likely senario at this point), areas directly under the eyewall's right front (i.e. NE) quadrant would experience sustained winds above 130mph, with gusts above 150mph.

 

[GMSI7D]

The max gust reported in St. Barts was around 150mph.

.

hurricane irma was category 5, the highest level, when it destroyed saint barth


quote from wikipedia :


"Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin – qui se trouvaient sur la trajectoire directe de l'œil du cyclone et avaient été placées en alerte maximale (violette) ordonnant le confinement des populations – sont durement touchées à quelques heures d'intervalle par des vents soutenus à 300 km/h1 pendant plusieurs heures (et des rafales enregistrées jusqu'à 360 km/h)."

from Ouragan Irma — Wikipédia

english translation : winds arround 190 mph and gusts to 220 mph

 

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[garyjsmith]

I love this community. The fact that -- in some cases -- complete strangers are thinking of each other to this degree, with updates and words of wisdom, really says a lot. For those of you who weather the storm, as soon as you can, report back so we know you're alright.

 

[Scot]

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

Tampa is uniquely unprepared for this storm, as currently modeled. All indications are that it's rapidly intensifying. Should the current model consensus be accurate, Tampa could be under a worst-case storm surge senario.

Tampa is really unprepared. The whole past week we were planning for some flooding from rain but not a direct hit. Now we're looking at 10-20ft storm surge and a direct hit.

South Tampa, St Petersburg, and Pasco County will be under water come Monday. It'll look just like Houston.

But the wind damage, that remains to be seen how bad it is.

I can tell you my house.. I'm 50/50. We moved in 4 months ago and didn't get the chance to install storm proof windows or shutters. That's my biggest concern.

Can't help but wonder which oil behemoth is paying CNN to hyperbolize the conditions... spurring gasoline and plastic bottle consumption.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seriously dude?

It's not some conspiracy. We've watched Houston get destroyed and flooded and now we're watching the STRONGEST HURRICANE RECORDED head towards Florida after watching it destroy several carribean islands.

We know we're going to lose power. When you lose power you lose water. People also evacuated. 1/3 of the state has evacuated. That takes fuel.

No conspiracy. Natural disaster.

 

[throttleforward]

hurricane irma was category 5, the highest level, when it destroyed saint barth


quote from wikipedia :


"Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin – qui se trouvaient sur la trajectoire directe de l'œil du cyclone et avaient été placées en alerte maximale (violette) ordonnant le confinement des populations – sont durement touchées à quelques heures d'intervalle par des vents soutenus à 300 km/h1 pendant plusieurs heures (et des rafales enregistrées jusqu'à 360 km/h)."

from Ouragan Irma — Wikipédia

english translation : winds arround 190 mph and gusts to 220 mph

They'll have to get a forensic examination to determine the actual surface winds. Often the surface winds are extrapolated from dropsonde data - the highest reported wind gust on the ground in Barbuda was 155mph, before the wind measuring device broke.

Of note, there were reports in the USVI of tree debarking, which is usually only found in strong tornados (EF-4 and above).

 

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[throttleforward]

Tampa is really unprepared. The whole past week we were planning for some flooding from rain but not a direct hit. Now we're looking at 10-20ft storm surge and a direct hit.

South Tampa, St Petersburg, and Pasco County will be under water come Monday. It'll look just like Houston.

But the wind damage, that remains to be seen how bad it is.

I can tell you my house.. I'm 50/50. We moved in 4 months ago and didn't get the chance to install storm proof windows or shutters. That's my biggest concern.



Seriously dude?

It's not some conspiracy. We've watched Houston get destroyed and flooded and now we're watching the STRONGEST HURRICANE RECORDED head towards Florida after watching it destroy several carribean islands.

We know we're going to lose power. When you lose power you lose water. People also evacuated. 1/3 of the state has evacuated. That takes fuel.

No conspiracy. Natural disaster.

Tampa will be a very close call. It's all about the eyewall placement. East over land, and the damage should be only in the form of flooding from serious rains (as that will likely mean the winds will have dropped to 100mph or less), just west, and it will be devestating, further west, the better Tampa does.

 

[throttleforward]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc


Here is a good feed of Key West, which will likely bear the worst of the storm first among the continential US locations.