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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Timmy C

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My uneducated opinion is that once Ethereum solves its problems (and it'll happen, don't bet against the geniuses), these other solutions, while probably won't go to zero, won't be used by those who want most liquidity, safety, and reputation. Unless they offer something completely different (speed alone isn't that valuable IMO) and don't compete with Ethereum, I don't see them as a safe bet.

Most of that stuff relies on Ethereum anyway so why not get direct exposure to the #1 platform?

This, plus Lindy effect.

I agree with you mate, all other ETH "killers" I will trim and sell most of them, but I never go to zero on a project anymore to prevent max regret year's later lol.

I can't see any of them taking out ETH.
 
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msufan

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Quite a downward bump right now...
 

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msufan

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?
Sometimes it just is what it is, but I guess you could argue it goes along with the Fed talking of tightening up a bit (which brought stocks down a bit as well this afternoon).
 
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MJ DeMarco

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?

Guessing, the market's downward action due to higher rates alluded.

In times that feel stressed, money flows into safe havens, and based on the market's action today, it doesn't see crypto as a safe haven. When times are buoyant, speculative assets like crypto get hit on the ask. Not saying I agree, but money flows don't tend to lie...
 

Timmy C

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People selling for taxes, leverage traders getting liquidates, rates potential increase.

Could be any number of things.

Just ride the waves fam.
 
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MoneyDoc

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?
My opinion?

Overeaction to FED minutes for equities. Everything in the minutes was known beforehand except for the tightening of the balance sheet that sits at $9T which is still a "thought" (with respect to timing). After todays reaction, I doubt the FED moves forward with that as it's simply not needed right now. But again, that's my guess, I don't know how they process these thoughts.

Also, BTC has been in a textbook WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION. See attached. $40-$42k is a HEAVY demand zone which is why it bounced right off mid $42k.

The only thing of concern is the fast rising yields.. but, I don't know if it's a natural rise or not. Yields have been used in the past to "scare" Powell. Will be interesting how the macro unfolds. I personally was expecting a major dip across all equities/crypto around March followed by a V bottom recovery. Guess that dip came early? Now I kinda wanna stay long for March as everyone is expecting a "crash" from the 25 bps rate hike.

Nothing macro for me suggests bearish. If inflation was under 5%, yes, I would switch bearish with this "hawkish" outlook from the fed. To be honest though, I got more of a dovish stance from reading the minutes. Not sure why.
Screen Shot 2022-01-04 at 7.26.45 PM.pngScreen Shot 2022-01-04 at 12.37.13 PM.png
 
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Timmy C

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History repeats itself time and time again with crypto, and when retail and market sentiment is at its lowest, those have been the times to buy and every single time.


The fear and greed index is at 15, the lowest its been since July last year.

I am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often, it comes with the territory.
 

MoneyDoc

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History repeats itself time and time again with crypto, and when retail and market sentiment is at its lowest, those have been the times to buy and every single time.


The fear and greed index is at 15, the lowest its been since July last year.

I am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often, it comes with the territory.
Don’t forget this is a different macro period… but I do still hold onto to my bullish macro position.
 

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am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often

I’m having a hard time admitting to myself that I’m now numb too. I feel like I should care, yet nothing. Not even an emotion. Maybe it’s because I don’t use debt/leverage for this. I can imagine some ppl getting stressed if their loans are getting cash calls to keep the margin account going.

Rule 1 in crypto - don’t use leverage, it’s too volatile at this time.
 
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Antifragile

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time for me to buy, I like these prices

Not timing the bottom, just trying to keep up with my strategy of buying on dips. "Be greedy when others are fearful". :)
 
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Ing

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I compared the 21 with the 17 bullrun countless times and in countless charts.
The repetition was so identical in times, that I expect the bear to be the same.
I expect the marketcap lowering until a low point in Oktober 2022.

ETH: I expect 2.0 to come end of 2022 or later. What will it bring regarding the chart? I m not sure. It will equal ETH with a lot of other coins.
 

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Antifragile, what are you planning on buying mostly?
I got BTC today and a little ETH.

Lately I accumulated too much ETH for my own % splits, so I have to think twice now. Probably will only add BTC going forward.

LYXe didn't dump big, so I didn't add any, but am on the lookout. It seems at $16 it's a cheap buy. I've been on a few "spaces" chats on Twitter, one with Fabian and understand his "slow and steady" approach better now. Bullish on this one.
 

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That sounds like a good plan. Similar to mine. I've also been buying BTC, because my avg on that one is a little high.
I'll also buy some ETH.

I'm maxxed out on my Lukso budget, unless it goes down to $10 again, I'll reconsider buying more. Interesting on the slow and steady approach!
 
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Antifragile

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That sounds like a good plan. Similar to mine. I've also been buying BTC, because my avg on that one is a little high.
I'll also buy some ETH.

I'm maxxed out on my Lukso budget, unless it goes down to $10 again, I'll reconsider buying more. Interesting on the slow and steady approach!

Ha! We are doing very similar buys. Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ. Time will tell.

Yes, my % allocation to LYXe is at max right now, but if it dips below $15 and the closer it gets to $10, the more I'll buy. Very happy with BTC this morning.
 

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robjohn

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Ha! We are doing very similar buys. Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ. Time will tell.

Yes, my % allocation to LYXe is at max right now, but if it dips below $15 and the closer it gets to $10, the more I'll buy. Very happy with BTC this morning.

LOL. Yes, time will tell.
Thanks for your answer!
 
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MoneyDoc

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Wyckoff Accumulation will be invalidated under $39k for those curious.

In other news, ETH lost a MAJOR MAJOR support...

Also, to add, anyone in tether (USDT) right now should HIGHLY consider switching to USDC or DAI. I converted earlier today. The "FUD" this time around tether might really come to light. The tether lawyer admitted that they hold Chinese paper. Now the "FUD" is that it's Evergrande and they are not revealing it. Just some friendly advice... I could be wrong and the "FUD" could be like the past 2-3 years on tether, or it can be real and tether implodes.
 
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Antifragile

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That's the problem with Tether (USDT), no one knows what the hell is backing it. No audit. Conveniently located in the BVI. It's not just FUD for the sake of FUD. It's real. Until now, Tether stood (still standing) on it own because of its sheet size and convenience. It's the closest thing to fiat currency I see in crypto lol.

So tempting to go all out and empty the pockets on more ETH and BTC right now... the puke is hard. Blood in the streets.
 

MoneyDoc

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That's the problem with Tether (USDT), no one knows what the hell is backing it. No audit. Conveniently located in the BVI. It's not just FUD for the sake of FUD. It's real. Until now, Tether stood (still standing) on it own because of its sheet size and convenience. It's the closest thing to fiat currency I see in crypto lol.

So tempting to go all out and empty the pockets on more ETH and BTC right now... the puke is hard. Blood in the streets.
To be honest, volume is not the same as the dip yesterday where actual wallets sold... volume is lower which could suggest liquidations, i.e. futures driven (too many longs open). Lol ration is still round 50/50 long:short.

We'll see how this plays out, either a MASSIVE wealth creation opportunity, or we just deadcat and continue the downtrend.
 

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To be honest, volume is not the same as the dip yesterday where actual wallets sold... volume is lower which could suggest liquidations, i.e. futures driven (too many longs open). Lol ration is still round 50/50 long:short.

We'll see how this plays out, either a MASSIVE wealth creation opportunity, or we just deadcat and continue the downtrend.

To be clear, I am not buying shit atm. Felt smart this morning, not so much now.
Need to watch it play out. Expect the squeeze to bleed the levered guys deep.
So as tempting as it feels to empty the tank, I'll wait.
 
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EVMaso

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/biz/ is going bananas right now.
Thanks for the heads up @MoneyDoc

I can't wait to wake up tomorrow and catch up on all the fun crypto news!

a8YAX5P.gif
 

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I pulled out of a lot of positions yesterday. I'm looking to re-enter the market tomorrow or Sunday depending on how BTC behaves. CT is full of bears and I think this is a good indication that we are nearing its end.
 

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I pulled out of a lot of positions yesterday. I'm looking to re-enter the market tomorrow or Sunday depending on how BTC behaves. CT is full of bears and I think this is a good indication that we are nearing its end.
Not full of bears yet.. crypto twitter is quite cringe actually lol. All the "analysts" are ignoring how ugly the daily and weekly look, and how we lost a MAJOR support. See this chart for the weekly. It's formed a clean Head and Shoulders. According to Bulkowski, this top pattern is ranked 9 out of 36 (1 being the best). See stats below:

Overall performance rank (1 is best): 9 out of 36
Break even failure rate: 19%
Average decline: 16%
Pullback rate: 68%
Percentage meeting price target: 51%

I do think we wick under $40k. Too many longs open although shorts on Bitfinex have jumped like crazy.

Another thing crypto twitter analysts are doing is comparing US10Y with BTC. They are NOT correlated... you have some overlap, but higher US10Y with declining stocks and they expect BTC to go up? It's hilarious. Higher US10Y usually suggests markets are ready for a rate hike. With that said, bond market is calling bluff and bonds are shorted like crazy right now... if these shorts get squeezed we can have a bloody mess :rofl:

But I like your strategy, weekly close is important this Sunday.
 
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Silv

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Not full of bears yet.. crypto twitter is quite cringe actually lol. All the "analysts" are ignoring how ugly the daily and weekly look, and how we lost a MAJOR support. See this chart for the weekly. It's formed a clean Head and Shoulders. According to Bulkowski, this top pattern is ranked 9 out of 36 (1 being the best). See stats below:

Overall performance rank (1 is best): 9 out of 36
Break even failure rate: 19%
Average decline: 16%
Pullback rate: 68%
Percentage meeting price target: 51%

I do think we wick under $40k. Too many longs open although shorts on Bitfinex have jumped like crazy.

Another thing crypto twitter analysts are doing is comparing US10Y with BTC. They are NOT correlated... you have some overlap, but higher US10Y with declining stocks and they expect BTC to go up? It's hilarious. Higher US10Y usually suggests markets are ready for a rate hike. With that said, bond market is calling bluff and bonds are shorted like crazy right now... if these shorts get squeezed we can have a bloody mess :rofl:

But I like your strategy, weekly close is important this Sunday.
That's a good point. The weekend will give some indication of how next week will play out.

One thing I've noticed with crypto in general, TA is really unpredictable as crypto is very volatile or you have people comparing it to the US10Y (lol). That's why there are so few day traders, most (successful) are investors. Everyone who day trades is bound to get burned eventually especially due to being overleveraged.
 

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