Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[GIlman]

You are not wrong, just not specific enough. It’s like saying that the internet TC/IP will crash - it didn’t and it won’t. But take NFTs “collectables etc” for example, they are indeed like the dot com companies - 98% no value at all. There was this one little company, Amazon something… but the rest, we all know the story.
@GIlman - your posts on medical research were stellar. It’s your domain, well researched and much appreciated. To return the favor, allow me to just say that throwing all Crypto into “dot com” is a mistake. Infrastructure that allows NFTs to be built isn’t going anywhere. 98% of no added value projects will burn to the ground after masses start “investing”.

Actually, I agree with you fully that both NFT’s and blockchain technology have a very bright future, they solve some problems elegantly.

My point was simply that the crypto/NFT markets seems wildly and spectacularly hyped and completely irrational at the moment, and that there is huge danger with heavy investment here right now.

I think there will be a time, just like with the internet…after the crash and many thing burn down…after people lose faith in the future of crypto and NFT…to place some bets in the survivors who can develop strong use cases.

Predicting who will survive now is nearly impossible. No one imagined Amazon would become what it has. How could anyone know a bookseller would be better than pets.com. In hindsight yes, but living through it real-time no.

That’s the reason for my comparison to early internet/dot com crash. It seems to me we are in the early hype phase, and I expect similar dynamics to play out as during what we saw for the early internet. There were lots of dot com paper millionaires HODLing stock in tech startups that lost it all when the whole thing blew up.

 

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[Rawr]

Bro ETH has been consolidating averaging at 2,5k for 3 months. What are you doing

i have just arrived. you know why i didnt buy at 3200 3 days ago? cause i saw the 3m chart and it was 900. 900-4k is not exactly consolidation to me.

edit -wait, thats wrong. ETH was at like $1800 and consolidating. wtf was i looking at hmm

 

[MTF]

That’s the reason for my comparison to early internet/dot com crash. It seems to me we are in the early hype phase, and I expect similar dynamics to play out as during what we saw for the early internet. There were lots of dot com paper millionaires HODLing stock in tech startups that lost it all when the whole thing blew up.

I was a young idiot back then so I can't compare the current crypto market to the dot com crash but I'm wondering about one thing...

Was there any company (or a few of them) back in those days that people "in the know" were 100% SURE would not fail? Were there any early Internet companies that people assumed would survive everything just because they were the first movers?

I'm asking because I'm curious about the claims that Bitcoin will never be dethronized just because it's the "original" currency with first mover advantages. Can this be true or did people think exactly the same thing about some early Internet companies that ultimately failed like almost the rest of them?

 

[Antifragile]

Fidelity Predicting $100 Million per Bitcoin by 2035

Fidelity Predicting $100 Million per Bitcoin by 2035

in.investing.com

 

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[nitrousflame]

I'm asking because I'm curious about the claims that Bitcoin will never be dethronized just because it's the "original" currency with first mover advantages. Can this be true or did people think exactly the same thing about some early Internet companies that ultimately failed like almost the rest of them?

I think a potential mistake is thinking about this stuff with a zero-sum and/or winner-take-all mindset. I'm not accusing you of doing this, but I just see it often. It seems likely to me that something at some point will "dethronize" bitcoin, but does that mean that bitcoin is a failure and is going to zero? In my opinion, no. I see a multi-chain future in which there are many winners.

 

[Hai]

Think of layer 1 blockchains as programming languages as an analogy.
There are are many and some become the base layer of the internet/crypto.
And many innovative ones are still being developed.

 

[MTF]

I think a potential mistake is thinking about this stuff with a zero-sum and/or winner-take-all mindset. I'm not accusing you of doing this, but I just see it often. It seems likely to me that something at some point will "dethronize" bitcoin, but does that mean that bitcoin is a failure and is going to zero? In my opinion, no. I see a multi-chain future in which there are many winners.

I know you're not accusing me but let me respond to that anyway

I'm not saying it has to be a zero sum game or that Bitcoin or other current major contenders have to go to zero. Nokia never went to zero, either, even though it completely missed jumping on the new smartphone trend. Yahoo didn't go to zero, either, even though Google completely crushed it.

Can the same happen to the cryptocurrencies many experts currently think can only go up? Possibly. In 10 years, Bitcoin may still exist but maybe it'll be worth much less than today and only held by hardcore believers in its "digital gold" status while the rest of the world will use something way more sophisticated (sort of like some people still using Nokias in the late 00s/early 10s while the rest of the world moved to smartphones).

 

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[Ing]

I will buy ADA in January 2023 or December 2022 for 5 cents.
I will sell it 2025 for 7 USDT.
I will check the charts and when anything differs to the last bullruns, I will change the method.

Beide that, I willtry to lear as much about cryptos as I can. But for the welth or not imo thats not important!

 

[daicaviet]

great topic to following

 

[Frinys]

Here I didn't refer to the technical side but the stuff the guy in the videos was doing in his wallet. I can't even summarize what he did because I have no idea. Something with Uniswap, moving from one network to another, yield farming, using some kind of a "bridge," etc., all on different sites, one more confusing than another.

For example, I have no idea what's going on here:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3HSr62ax3U


I also don't get this video on passive income from crypto:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bumvpt8KUM


He talks about staking (with yet another different platform) and investing in liquidity pools without ever explaining what the heck it means and what it's actually doing with your invested money and whether you have access to it, where it goes, etc.

I can understand your frustration. It seems like the author is talking about too many different aspects of crypto at one time. I would also be confused if he's talking about Uniswap, yield farming, briding, staking, etc... It's not your fault.

I would start with something like:
Q. I want to learn how wallets work, so I'm going to learn about what:
- A seed phrase is
- How to send and receive transactions
- Whitelisting addresses
And that'd be all for the start.

Likewise, if I'm interested in Uniswap, I would ask questions like:
- What is Uniswap?
- Why do people use Uniswap?
- What do people usually use Uniswap for?
- As an experiment, I'm going to try to swap from one coin and then swap back to my original coin

NFT questions
- What is an NFT?
- What is minting?
- Where can I buy or sell an NFT?

Just basic general questions about a certain aspect of crypto. I wouldn't try to learning a lot of different things at once until I understand one thing. Then once I feel like I have a decent understanding of what that one thing is used for, maybe I'll learn something else.

I hope that can help a bit instead of using a shotgun approach of trying to learn a lot of different things at one time! There are so many different things going on in crypto at once that it's better to just learn a thing or two until you have a general idea of what they are.

@Ocean Man's answer is really great, I don't have much more to add. Focus on what's interesting to you, no one is supposed to know everything. Heck, I've been interested in crypto for a long time, have written a master's thesis about blockchain tech, and even I'm confused a lot of times.

But this is also why blockchain tech is interesting, there is so much going on, so there is always something new to learn. Either by going wider, learning new concepts, or deeper by studying already known concepts.

 

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[Frinys]

The analogy of crypto to the early internet is interesting….and it definitely has a similar feel to it. In particular wild speculation on things that people said “would provide value” in the future, although the plan how that value would be provided was undefined.

There was internet startup, after internet startup. Money being thrown at anything that had the word internet or named eSomething or iSomething. No one could rationally explain the valuations of these things other than to say they were the future.

And then the dot com bubble burst and nearly the whole thing burned down. Right now hearing people talk about crypto feels exactly like people talking about internet companies before the dot com bubble burst.

Based on this, I expect at some point a horrific crash, a cleansing of the market, and a few key players to survive. I see a future for crypto and the technology behind it, but from where I sit the place to be at the moment is on the sidelines watching until it all burns down. Then sort through the ashes and pick up some choice discounted pieces.

I realize this is probably an unpopular opinion at the moment, but time will tell after the current insane asset bubble mania ends, if the similar feel to the crypto mania now and internet mania around 2000 end up playing out similarly.

It is an unpopular opinion, but voices like yours are important! Way too many forget that a huge crash may be waiting on the horizon.

The way I see it is that crypto is here to stay forever. A crash may come, but we cannot know this. For all we know, that crash was the crash in 2017. Or it may be the one in 2023. We can wait for the future before we invest, but at that time the future has already unfolded. I'll much rather stay invested now, and if the market crashes, I'll invest more. I cannot know what cryptocurrencies will thrive or die, but I know that crypto is here to stay.

 

[mguerra]

Fidelity Predicting $100 Million per Bitcoin by 2035

Fidelity Predicting $100 Million per Bitcoin by 2035

in.investing.com

HOPIUM slowly being injected into the market again...

Seems like we're setting the stage for the remaining half of this bullrun, huh?

 

[Ocean Man]

Is it just me or have a ton of people started talking about NFTs this week or is it just the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon from learning more?

 

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[MTF]

Is it just me or have a ton of people started talking about NFTs this week or is it just the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon from learning more?

Probably both. Seems like the bubble is about to burst soon.

 

[Timmy C]

Quite happy with my crypto investments.

Especially in the totalitarian world we are living in.

You can escape a country with millions of dollars on a piece of paper, metal or words tattood on your body to greener pastures.

It is much more difficult for them to confiscate your crypto compared to that of gold, real estate etc.

 

[Antifragile]

Any predictions on when big retailers like Amazon and Walmart start accepting crypto payments? And will it be BTC or something else?

 

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[Frinys]

Any predictions on when big retailers like Amazon and Walmart start accepting crypto payments? And will it be BTC or something else?

I can only speculate. They have definitely discussed it internally. Very few other companies accept crypto payments, and Amazon has little to win by being early to the party. I think they are ready to implement a solution, but they chose to wait until more companies accept crypto.

It would be a very weird move to start accepting crypto, but not Bitcoin. So I think it is safe to assume that at least BTC, probably also ETH, and perhaps some more, will be accepted.

 

[Antifragile]

Amazon is like a “gateway” company with their FBA, if the sellers were willing to accept crypto… but then again, sellers have no real pull. They are just in for the ride.

Also a big puke for crypto today

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Matt Sun]

I say today was leveraged trader's wipe out day. But Eths new "halving" is still in place and the btc blow off top at 240k by the end of the year is in the menu.

ahh, love the smell of hopium in the morning.

 

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[JamesQB8]

Who is Margin and why is he calling me?

 

[AceVentures]

I would like to teach everybody that's interested in leverage trading a very neat How To!

Without further delay, here is your guide:

F*cking don't!



Stay in spot and chill. We are still very early to crypto. Don't go bust by being too greedy. In a few years you'll look back and truly kick yourself for having drained all your coins trying to go too fast.

Crypto is already fastlane as F*ck. Don't go any faster than you need to or you'll end up getting yourself hurt.

 

[Speculatooor]

ok i need a catalyst to buy ETH lower. Anything like that on the horizon?

Your order has been delivered

 

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[OleksiyRybakov]

Crypto is already fastlane as f*ck. Don't go any faster than you need to or you'll end up getting yourself hurt.

I agree that leverage trading might be not a good idea. But can you please explain how investing into cryptocurrency (I am not talking about businesses based on crypto) satisfies CENTS and especially the Commandment of Control? I think that crypto can be an opportunity for winning the Slowlane. Yet, in my opinion, crypto is not Fastlane at all.

 

[Timmy C]

I just noticed prices went down.

Time to load up some more ETH/BTC and LINK.

 

[OleksiyRybakov]

I just noticed prices went down.

Time to load up some more ETH/BTC and LINK.

I also think that it might be a great idea to load up more crypto. But first, I would wait and see whether Bitcoin goes below the 20-day moving average or whether it manages to successfully test that previous resistance flipping into support.

 

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[Timmy C]

I also think that it might be a great idea to load up more crypto. But first, I would wait and see whether Bitcoin goes below the 20-day moving average or whether it manages to successfully test that previous resistance flipping into support.

Nah, I don't care enough about that.

Im not selling any time soon lol.

 

[AceVentures]

Why Crypto? Take a look at this article titled Bitcoin is Civilization by Balaji S. Srinivasan

Bitcoin is great and has many believers, but for the purposes of highlighting the TECHNOLOGY and separating that from speculation on any one specific asset, I've gone ahead and replaced all instances of "Bitcoin" or "Ethereum" With [CRYPTO] to avoid shilling any one thing.

Keep your eyes on the prize my friends - this is about personal liberty and not about getting rich enough to buy yachts.

1. Crypto Protects Human Rights Around the World

[CRYPTO] might seem like a curiosity in a democracy with a stable currency. But in countries with deeply unstable economies and authoritarian politics, it is a lifeline. As Alex Gladstein recently explained in Reason Magazine, [CRYPTO] has been used by dissidents and activists in places like Cuba, Nigeria, and Belarus. In Russia, the country’s most prominent opposition politician and Putin critic, Alexei Navaly, has raised millions in [CRYPTO]. As Gladstein wrote: “Putin can do a lot of things, but he can't freeze a [CRYPTO] account.” If you want to understand what crypto is really about, ask Venezuelans if they’d rather own bolívar or [CRYPTO].

2. Crypto Provides Currency Stability

There was a day not so long ago that $787 billion was a jaw-dropping number. Do any of us know how many trillions of dollars the US government has printed since the 2008 bailout? Do we even want to imagine the potential inflationary effects?

Recall that at the start of the Weimar hyperinflation, everyone thought they were getting rich, with asset prices going through the roof. By the end, everyone unfortunate enough to trust the monetary policy of Weimar Germany was wiped out, and the mark was restandardized on gold. [CRYPTO] — digital gold — offers an algorithmic, written, transparent, cryptographically-enforced monetary policy that can be predicted far into the future. So it should come as no surprise that prominent investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are investing in [CRYPTO] as a guard against inflation.

3. Crypto’s Decentralization Guarantees Fairness

After the 2008 financial crisis, the issuance of new banking charters was cut off and the imposition of Dodd-Frank created formidable regulatory barriers around financial innovation. In many ways, this was a coronation disguised as regulation, as it “punished” the banks by locking in their moats, boxing out their competitors, and enshrining them as the only players with root access to the financial system.

Fortunately, technologists spent the decade building crypto protocols and digital assets that replace the need for bank access entirely. They built them not just on [CRYPTO], but on newer blockchains like [CRYPTO]. These protocols and assets are now being used together in an internet-native ecosystem known as decentralized finance (defi for short) that is fundamentally fair in a way that Wall Street isn’t. An Indian can use defi protocols without a Bloomberg Terminal. A Nigerian can create defi contracts without paying for American lawyers. And a Filipino can computationally verify that defi code is fair without trusting American politicians and bankers.

4. Crypto Protects Free Speech

The spirit of the First Amendment is under attack from giant technology companies and media corporations, with institutional diktat treated as truth and speech restrictions imposed in the name of content moderation. Decentralized social networks allow users to make an end run around these companies.

What’s a decentralized social network, you ask? The same technology that makes it possible to send digital currency to each other without a central hub like the Federal Reserve makes it possible to send digital messages to each other without a central hub like Facebook.

Some partially decentralized social networks already exist, like Mirror, Mastodon, Twetch, Peertube, D.Tube, Manyverse, Commonwealth, and Bitclout. More are being built.

If that seems like gibberish, remember that [CRYPTO] is now worth more than Facebook, and that crypto suggests a strategy to bootstrap a decentralized competitor to Facebook. What if the near-trillion-dollar valuation of Facebook was split amongst its users, with more going towards the early adopters, and without a central point of corporate control? As far-fetched as this may sound, it’s exactly the dynamic these new networks are pursuing.

5. Crypto Protects Private Property

Several years ago, the total amount seized by police surpassed the amount stolen from citizens by burglars. Most people don’t realize that officers can take cash and property from people without convicting or even charging them with a crime — yes, really! — through the highly controversial practice known as civil asset forfeiture.

The practice is part of a general abrogation of the Fourth Amendment that we can track back to at least the Patriot Act. Dealing with this legislatively may be futile — the trend has been moving in only one direction — but crypto again provides a solution. It is much harder for an oppressive government to arbitrarily seize (or even locate) someone’s digital property. This resets the relationship between state and citizen to make it impossible to search your digital “papers and effects” without your consent. No doubt we can imagine abuses, but when legislative approaches fail, only something unyieldingly principled can bring back the spirit of the Fourth Amendment.

6. Crypto Protects Online Privacy

We learned several years ago that the NSA was spying on Americans and lying to its oversight committee. Eight years later, Edward Snowden still hasn’t been pardoned, and the surveillance state is more tightly merged with social networks and search engines than ever before. Similar developments are taking place overseas, especially in China.

The only force that stands against this is encryption. Encryption isn’t synonymous with crypto, any more than software is synonymous with the internet. But just like the internet was a highly monetizable platform for software, crypto is turning out to be a highly monetizable application of encryption — and the billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies are stimulating a boom in applied cryptography.

7. Crypto Is the Next Silicon Valley

Silicon Valley as we know it is over. San Francisco has gone from the capital of the tech boom to post-apocalyptic wasteland, with failing businesses, violent assaults, and technologists leaving as fast as the cloud will carry them. But spiritually it’s declined as well, with box-checking ideologues staffing many of the large tech companies, and replacing the innovative spirit that built technology in the first place.

But all is not lost — quite the opposite. As valuable as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are, if you plot their stock prices they look like slow growth vehicles relative to the multi-trillion dollar crypto-economy. The next center of innovation isn’t in Silicon Valley, it’s on-chain. And we should cheer the transition from Google’s “Don’t Be Evil” to crypto’s “Can’t Be Evil.”

8. Crypto’s Smart Contracts Replace Fallible Courts and Lawyers

Lawyers and judges are fallible and can be fickle. Smart contracts built on blockchain technology are not. The combination of a predictable monetary policy and rule-of-code allows us to make binding, long-term, public commitments to pay someone X amount under Y conditions at Z date. The more trustworthy this commitment is, the lower the cost of contract enforcement, the more reliable the deal. For example, if 100 people commit to crowdfund a new housing complex, and their funds are locked up on-chain, you can be sure they're good for the money — and proceed appropriately.

9. Crypto’s Economic Alignment Addresses Social Polarization

Legacy media and social media have polarized us, but cryptocurrencies offer the possibility of bringing us together on the basis of tangible, quantifiable economic alignment. It is now possible for an Israeli and a Palestinian, a Chinese citizen and a Japanese citizen, or a Democrat and a Republican, to all agree on the state of the [CRYPTO] blockchain. Regardless of your political views or your geography, everyone in the same crypto network prospers or fails together.

10. Crypto’s International Protocols Are the New Code-Based Order

As China and America slug it out in a trade war, a Chinese citizen and an American citizen might not trust each others’ legal systems. But they do trust the [CRYPTO] and [CRYPTO] blockchains, because the code executes exactly the same way on a Chinese or an American computer (or a Japanese or German one, for that matter). Cross-border trade is alive and well on-chain. Indeed, it’s not too far-fetched to believe that by 2030 or 2040, most cross-border trade may be mediated in whole or in part by a smart contract.

The crypto community today is truly international, reaching 100 million members across every country in the world in just its first decade. It’s not particularist or chauvinist or nationalist. Neither is it socialist or communist or statist. It's internationalist and capitalist, offering global equality of opportunity to anyone with an internet-connected device, which will soon be everyone. What Pax Americana purported to guarantee with guns, Pax [CRYPTO]ica guarantees with code.

 

[Rawr]

Your order has been delivered

i was excited, i went all in into SOL that day on the drop. ETH gas fees is a problem. Sold it but looking to get back in

 

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[GPM]

In CAD eth had been hovering around $4000 for a little bit, shot to nearly $5000, and then "crashed to" $4400. I'll take it.

 

[Vasili27]

out of curiosity, has anyone used or is using syrup pools on pancake swap? I am doing my own research on how they exactly work. But Im curious to see if its worth to even put currency into these and just have them restake over time. Also is are syrup pools something you only do when you have large amounts of currency put it so the 5% yeild or however much it is is worth it? kinda like how MJ said in TMF that compound interest is only worth it only when you have alot of money and need to put it somewhere, where you can make every month off of it.