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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

James Fake

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@Kasimir @Timmy C agreed. I believe what compromises $10k to $13-15k is mostly:

1. Early adopters who never left the crypto world, always looking for early bull market signs. (likely not to sell until it's $100k literally lol)

2. Institution money. (these people are actually more prone to sell than the "retail" early adopter traders because they believe alot more in profit taking when over-extended, but will usually always jump back in hence becoming a fairly reliable source to stair stepper floor. Of course, they also keep portions of their allocations in long holds that they don't plan on touching... for a longgg time.)

With that said... $13-15k sounds about right to shake out the "eyeball retail traders/all time high chasers" that compromises from there to where we are now.

If we indeed stick a solid higher low... man, oh man.... IT IS ON for 2021! AND I (we) AM MUCH MUCH BETTER PREPARED THIS TIME AROUND.
 
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James Fake

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Quick Analysis Update:

Bitcoin’s top & broad market selloff either happens: This morning in 6-8hrs or Sunday.

If not here in 6-8hrs, then Bitcoin is doing a triangle consolidation for first part of the day that will break to the upside and wipe out that ATH...

Stock futures are flat right now and could point to big downside, but Im leaning towards Monday and a run to ATH and some fomo pumps over the holiday/weekend as people gather and talk hype about Bitcoin, stocks, etc. (similar to Nov 2017’s holiday into weekend)
 

Kevin88660

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I don't think many people here believe bitcoins bull run is finished.

Some pull backs, yes.

But this is only getting started.
Given this parabolic move in btc I don’t think we are seeing any serious pull back until the price is at much higher.

Retail interest at present is no way near 2017 year end, judging from Google search trend.

Institution money is patient. Even a 30 percent correction of a 1 percent aum speculative allocation is just 0.3 percent. They are not going to panic dump like retail.

This is more like a “inflation fear driven” bull market. Reminds me of exactly ten years ago when pundits are saying why gold is going to the rood and U.S. dollar is dying.

Fast forward to 2020 Fed injected so much liquidity that made 2009 QE like child play.

I have a small stake in alt coin. I would not sell them until I heard some alt coin project founder’s paper wealth is near elon musk’s level and that will be your cnbc headline..
 

mThree2K

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Well Bitcoin, here we go again.

Lots of voices stating this pullback could end at 12k but as always BTC goes far beyond what everyone thinks.

Could the vaccine news also be a catalyst for a huge pullback in BTC due to investors thinking that the FED won´t pump any more stimulation into the markets because this pandemic will end sooner as expected?

@James Fend great analysis, always amazes me how one can predict more or less accurate a market move, is it experience? Is it some mix of indicators & charts?

This sure is exciting to watch.
 
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As the old saying goes, buy when there is blood in the streets. I might pick some bitcoin up when it finds support.

I have been SUPER lean on BC for over a year, but I like a lot about it... I am also not about to risk more than 5% of my portfolio on it and I think that is a fairly strong position. The key reason being is the evolution of tech and my fear of government banning it.

It is fiat, the way fiat was supposed to be. A commodity, not a manipulation.
 

Kasimir

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Think it will fall down to 12-14k at least that where I'll buy some more. But potentially even see a pullback to 10k. But after that, I am just going to hold and wait. I have mixed feelings about crypto in Q1 and Q2 of 2021. But we'll see.
 
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Andreas Thiel

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Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.
 

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Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.
Just for clarity, this isn't "starting".

This has been going on since at least 2012, when Coinbase was founded. They were immediately required to KYC all customers using the platform over a certain volume.

The BitLicense in NYS was passed in 2014, made to "protect" people investing in BTC with similar regulations and means.

It may be worth it for you to watch the Banking on Bitcoin documentary for a more thorough history on the earliest BTC regulations, including KYC/AML laws.
 

Kevin88660

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Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.
They are more concerned with things like tax evasion and capital outflow, or losing track of who pays who and who owns what.

These are not like not stocks and real estates that are centralized. The government doesn’t know what you own. Think about the mandatory declaration on bringing in cash across border...how do you do that with bitcoin.

There are just two many wallets, too many coins options and too many different games to play that the regulation is impossible to catch up with. From btc to privacy alt-coins to defi...

It is all about having control versus losing control.

Governments do not like crypto. But their attempt to regulate crypto will inevitably fail because there will never be a united effort. There is always rival economics interest. Do you think swiss regulators will spend efforts and money cracking down on U.S. millionaires trying to leave their countries to settle in Switzerland?
 
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Timmy C

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The more important question and one that isn't asked enough is, what's your exit plan?

It's all good and well for BTC to go to $100k, but how to realize the value? And not get stuck holding the bag like everyone from 2017 did.

There are a few strategies that you could implement and I wouldn't care about holding a bitcoin bag.

If you have cheap hot alts you don't want to be holding onto that shit.
 

James Fake

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As we near the monthly candle closing, I think we are going to go for a dip into the mid $17,000s.

I plan on buying and pushing most, if not all, of my chips in in the mid-$17,000s for the final entry into the wild 2021 ride that is come.

WHY HERE AT $17,000S?

I don't think it'll hit $14k or $15k or even $16k... and literally, the only reason why I think it won't is because it seems this has become the general consensus on what to expect.

This price action area reminds me too much of when I went all in around the $10,000 area when everyone was staying out awaiting $8,000 and a CME Gap that was suppose to be a guaranteed to fill. Same logic, the only reason why was because it became the general consensus.

Breakout Sleeper: XRP
There will be an almost guaranteed volatility leading to some fast quick run ups (like we just witnessed) as we approach December 12th where they have Spark Fork occurring. In short, the fork is suppose to give you 1:1 of some forked XRP coin later in early 2021; and the amount you get depends on how much XRP you have sitting on an exchange when they take a snapshot on December 12th.
 

Timmy C

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As we near the monthly candle closing, I think we are going to go for a dip into the mid $17,000s.

I plan on buying and pushing most, if not all, of my chips in in the mid-$17,000s for the final entry into the wild 2021 ride that is come.

WHY HERE AT $17,000S?

I don't think it'll hit $14k or $15k or even $16k... and literally, the only reason why I think it won't is because it seems this has become the general consensus on what to expect.

This price action area reminds me too much of when I went all in around the $10,000 area when everyone was staying out awaiting $8,000 and a CME Gap that was suppose to be a guaranteed to fill. Same logic, the only reason why was because it became the general consensus.

Breakout Sleeper: XRP
There will be an almost guaranteed volatility leading to some fast quick run ups (like we just witnessed) as we approach December 12th where they have Spark Fork occurring. In short, the fork is suppose to give you 1:1 of some forked XRP coin later in early 2021; and the amount you get depends on how much XRP you have sitting on an exchange when they take a snapshot on December 12th.

I disagree man but that's fine haha.

I can't see this breaking ATH for another few months at least, and do believe a major pullback is imminent.
 
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James Fake

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Some Updates I See:

There's a broad market sell off going on. I still attribute it to my Sell The News: Vaccine Approval theory lol (Moderna is asking FDA for emergency approval today).

But nonetheless, it will bring everything with it. Except the US Dollar. This includes Bitcoin, so not only did we do some crazy pump this morning but we will likely also do an equally crazy dump that will kind of slow bleed for a week or so. This sell off for Bitcoin will happen after it retests the $19k area on it's bounce.

So... All in one day:

1) Bitcoin pumps and hits it's All Time High since freakin 3 years ago.

And then it's likely these will follow...

2) Sells off to hit $16,000 or $17,000.

3) Followed by a retest pump back to $19,000.

Then over the next week or so: a sell off, a slower bleed type correction sell off all the way eventually down to $13,000-$14,000


Breakout Star: XRP
XRP will likely drop down along with everything else. BUT the kicker is; I think XRP will eventually de-couple around $.58-.61 from Bitcoin and find footing and slowly start going up while Bitcoin goes down. This sounds crazy but no matter what analysis I do; XRP always ends up going to $1.2+ in the next couple weeks (sometime in the first week of December)
 
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Last edited:

mThree2K

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Some Updates I See:

There's a broad market sell off going on. I still attribute it to my Sell The News: Vaccine Approval theory lol (Moderna is asking FDA for emergency approval today).

But nonetheless, it will bring everything with it. Except the US Dollar. This includes Bitcoin, so not only did we do some crazy pump this morning but we will likely also do an equally crazy dump that will kind of slow bleed for a week or so. This sell off for Bitcoin will happen after it retests the $19k area on it's bounce.

So... All in one day:

1) Bitcoin pumps and hits it's All Time High since freakin 3 years ago.

And then it's likely these will follow...

2) Sells off to hit $16,000 or $17,000.

3) Followed by a retest pump back to $19,000.

Then over the next week or so: a sell off, a slower bleed type correction sell off all the way eventually down to $13,000-$14,000


Breakout Star: XRP
XRP will likely drop down along with everything else. BUT the kicker is; I think XRP will eventually de-couple around $.58-.61 from Bitcoin and find footing and slowly start going up while Bitcoin goes down. This sounds crazy but no matter what analysis I do; XRP always ends up going to $1.2+ in the next couple weeks (sometime in the first week of December)
Knowing the hysteria that forms around XRP retailwise you could be short on your projection.
 

James Fake

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Knowing the hysteria that forms around XRP retailwise you could be short on your projection.

You do have a great point! I'm eye'ing $1.2 (maybe?) around first week of December, then freakin $5+ in early/mid 2021. How? I'm not even sure (it feels weird to type that type of a moonboy target lol), but yeah... the hysteria you mentioned in 2017 was.... unbelievable in how high & fast it would run.. and it is 2020 lol
 

mguerra

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You do have a great point! I'm eye'ing $1.2 (maybe?) around first week of December, then freakin $5+ in early/mid 2021. How? I'm not even sure (it feels weird to type that type of a moonboy target lol), but yeah... the hysteria you mentioned in 2017 was.... unbelievable in how high & fast it would run.. and it is 2020 lol
Do you see any potential in this Spark tokens that will be distributed in XRP airdrop on decembter 12th?
 
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csalvato

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@James Fend (or any other XRP bulls): do you think XRP is a long buy and hold play? Or just a bubble play to make some quick cash?

I ask as someone who has always disliked the project and think it's doomed to fail, so looking for a different perspective in case I'm wrong.
 

James Fake

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Do you see any potential in this Spark tokens that will be distributed in XRP airdrop on decembter 12th?
Yes, exactly. I think this will cause the price to run up a few days to a week before Dec 12th. No other alt at the moment (other than ETH 2.0 which is still kind of an unknown) has any definite date on any "good news". This is kind of the first "good news" since this crypto bull run has began (well half way confirmed as bull run anyways), and any "good news" is pretty much like NOS boosters in bullish environments!


@James Fend (or any other XRP bulls): do you think XRP is a long buy and hold play? Or just a bubble play to make some quick cash?

I ask as someone who has always disliked the project and think it's doomed to fail, so looking for a different perspective in case I'm wrong.
Great questions. So, my take is... I am not fond of the project, but at the same time, they would be filling a need even if it skirts "crypto roots". With that said; it is also the #3 biggest cap coin and has tons of volume & liquidity, I think it would be almost impossible for this thing to fail as 'how do you fail speculation'? (unlike something like a Bitconnect which was a scam and not speculated utility)

Unless we are of course talking 25-30 years out at which, today's crypto doesn't hold much weight for me right now for 2040 and beyond. (as I think virtual reality is what will be the main driver of a digital currency kind of like in-game credits that people buy now, but it would be universal, global, confirmable, and not clumsy like dollar transfers. And that currency; I have no idea if it is here or if it is yet to be created)

Anywho, I strictly just trade XRP just as I would trade tulips lol. Profit is profit to me for right now; although I do care of the root tech behind it, it would also be irresponsible not to dip my hands in "easy" money.

As a trade; I treat it more like a 3x ETF almost lol. It's gains and losses are 2-3x size of Bitcoin's moves. It is also a bit better peace of mind in having an asset that is 3x moving vs. using paper derivatives off some (sometimes sketchy) exchange; it allows me some sort of control at least.
 

Non-Conformist

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Some Updates I See:

There's a broad market sell off going on. I still attribute it to my Sell The News: Vaccine Approval theory lol (Moderna is asking FDA for emergency approval today).

But nonetheless, it will bring everything with it. Except the US Dollar. This includes Bitcoin, so not only did we do some crazy pump this morning but we will likely also do an equally crazy dump that will kind of slow bleed for a week or so. This sell off for Bitcoin will happen after it retests the $19k area on it's bounce.

So... All in one day:

1) Bitcoin pumps and hits it's All Time High since freakin 3 years ago.

And then it's likely these will follow...

2) Sells off to hit $16,000 or $17,000.

3) Followed by a retest pump back to $19,000.

Then over the next week or so: a sell off, a slower bleed type correction sell off all the way eventually down to $13,000-$14,000


Breakout Star: XRP
XRP will likely drop down along with everything else. BUT the kicker is; I think XRP will eventually de-couple around $.58-.61 from Bitcoin and find footing and slowly start going up while Bitcoin goes down. This sounds crazy but no matter what analysis I do; XRP always ends up going to $1.2+ in the next couple weeks (sometime in the first week of December)
If XRP would really go up to $1.2 I would be happy and pissed off at the same time. This guy I follow and agree upon his research shows that most digital assets will have a massive drop such as BTC, XRP, and ETH. I've read the charts and fractals he uses and it make sense, plus the stuff going on in the world could follow up a drop. I wonder what will happen in the upcoming days, but I will keep my eyes on this space.
 
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Non-Conformist

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Do you see any potential in this Spark tokens that will be distributed in XRP airdrop on decembter 12th?
They aren't going to necessarily distribute it on the 12th, they would pay in you pieces. Don't assume this is correct do your own research and read some articles to see what could happen (because once again we don't know what is true and false, just handed information).
 

Kal-El1998

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I'll be honest, after bitcoin tanked at the beginning of 2018, I never thought it would back up where it has. That being said...it's probably going to reach a new high before there's another big sell off. I will probably just wait until it dies again and then buy 2 or 3.
 

Kevin88660

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I'll be honest, after bitcoin tanked at the beginning of 2018, I never thought it would back up where it has. That being said...it's probably going to reach a new high before there's another big sell off. I will probably just wait until it dies again and then buy 2 or 3.
Bitcoin is getting more and more stable. I think 30k is easily do-able in this cycle, but I skeptical of the extremely bullish cases of above 50k, without a Weimar style of hyperinflation.

If you didn’t accumulate in the bear market the risk reward is not going to be in your favor now to buy in the bull marker. I think there is still decent opportunity in alt coins. They usually are slow to pick up velocity and the prices and near to their bottom.

A small bet on sth for a 10x or 20x potential.

Defi is the hot topic but most are no longer cheap in valuation. And there is a lot of competition in this space.

Given the increasing interest from institutional money, I focus on projects that are structured to be acquisition friendly.
 
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mguerra

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A small bet on sth for a 10x or 20x potential.

Defi is the hot topic but most are no longer cheap in valuation. And there is a lot of competition in this space.

Given the increasing interest from institutional money, I focus on projects that are structured to be acquisition friendly.

Do you mean acquisition by a big company? This is interesting...

I think we are living a new "wave" of cryptospace. With the world post C0VlD-19 changing at a rapid pace, the technology is evolving, contracts with big institutions have been signed, new things like DeFi, NFT, etc..

Do you mind sharing what is your framework/thought process when looking for a good alt project to invest in from now on?

I don't have mine fully formed yet, but here it goes as an example...

Example:

1. Research and understand the project you are investing, read the whitepaper, etc
2. Look for projects that solves a real need/adds real value to the world
3. Look for projects that signed contracts with big institutions
4. Look for projects that are acquisition friendly
5. Check the upcoming news of that project
5. Etc..

Think it might spark an interesting discussion. Let's see if we can help each others out in taking advantage of the opportunities yet to come.
 

Kevin88660

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Do you mean acquisition by a big company? This is interesting...

I think we are living a new "wave" of cryptospace. With the world post C0VlD-19 changing at a rapid pace, the technology is evolving, contracts with big institutions have been signed, new things like DeFi, NFT, etc..

Do you mind sharing what is your framework/thought process when looking for a good alt project to invest in from now on?

I don't have mine fully formed yet, but here it goes as an example...

Example:

1. Research and understand the project you are investing, read the whitepaper, etc
2. Look for projects that solves a real need/adds real value to the world
3. Look for projects that signed contracts with big institutions
4. Look for projects that are acquisition friendly
5. Check the upcoming news of that project
5. Etc..

Think it might spark an interesting discussion. Let's see if we can help each others out in taking advantage of the opportunities yet to come.
I have to admit that I do not have a lot of real trading experience in this space. I knew about crypto since 2013, I read about them, bough some for fun and followed their price and development. I am not those who spent hours per day and they know where to “Farm and dump” the latest defi token.

And I have friends who spent more time in this space who do not agree with the way I look at the alt coins.

I want to find crypto projects that traditional investors can understand and relate to.

A lot of defi projects are anonymous founders with possible SEC regulation going against them. I don’t think institutional money is going to be comfortable.

I want to look for projects with
1) Credible founders, impressive people with good CV
2) projects with real users/solving real problems
3) a good narrative of potentially becoming something big.

Basically the next small “Elon Musk”. A hammer is always going to look for a nail. Institutional investors who get used of evaluating traditional investment vehicles are always going to look for something that is similar to what they have been looking.

Personally I like projects such as Vechain and Basic Attention Token. They are more friendly towards investors evaluating start-up potential.

This is different from the consensus who believe that defi is the best bet. Their rationale is that once alt coun bull market starts retail money will rush into defi projects. They focus more on “pumpamentals” and underlying disruptive transactional related technology.

I think otherwise. With retails having the recent memory of getting burnt in 2017 and they are making good money now chasing EV theme stocks, why would they risk their money in crypto? It is the inflation concerned deep pockets looking to diversify their portfolio that could give crypto market most of the boost.



Throw what you can earn back in 3-4 months for a once in a 3-4 years opportunity for a 10-20x return.
 
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Has anyone played with selling covered calls on your BTC at Trade Bitcoin, Options and Futures ? I just saw it and am debating selling on maybe .5 btc monthly and reinvesting back into building up more btc. You can sell a $100k Dec 2021 contract for like $2500
 

Timmy C

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Wake up check bitcoins price.

Check Peter Schiff's Twitter.

Troll him.

And repeat.

The guy doesn't shut up about bitcoin.

He's a meme at this point.
 

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