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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

ChrisV

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More importantly, keep in mind that Bitcoin, Ethereum and all the cryptocurrencies are just implementations of the bigger technology that everyone should be focused on: Blockchain.
Bingo.

Blockchain is here to stay. Cryptocurrencies are probably here to stay.

I personally don't think that Bitcoin is going to make it past 5 years.
 
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G-Man

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Interested to hear what some folks more knowledgeable than me think about crypto.com. I have a coworker that won't shut up about it, so I visited the site. Right out of the gate, there are few things that concern me. Here is the landing page:
View attachment 32525View attachment 32525

And the promised returns if you hold your coins in one of their term accounts:
325261587775764648.png

So basically - I can by crypto with a credit card, and I can get 12% interest on a crypto term deposit?

Also, interest on a crypto deposit? Is there a lending market out there denominated in cryptocurrency? What are they investing in that generates return denominated in the coin and isn't subject to the volatility of the crypto/usd exchange rate?

Be interested to hear what some of the smarties on this topic think.
 

ChrisV

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@G-Man the first thing I notice is them saying "up to 6% p.a", but then the second column says "12%"

I can't tell if they mean "up to 12% p.a." in the second column, and I truthfully think they worded it that way on purpose. Like it's "up to 12%" but they want to create ambiguity to make people believe it's 12%.

I don't know much about it, but I noticed that right away.
 

Timmy C

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Current holdings.

BTC
XLM
NANO
VET
CPC ( I lost everything, well i have $9 left and havent sold yet! lmao)

I bought some BTC at a dip a few months ago although i didn't get the most recent one.
 
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Timmy C

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Way to much hype around this for it to do anything positive.

I predict this will take a massive shit after halving and doing nothing for at least 6 months after that.


bitcoin halving.jpg
 

Andreas Thiel

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I personally think BTC is pretty speculative, but it seems like a reasonable gamble. Still, I have around 10% of my money in BTC now.

The deflationary pressure that we have seen (which also affected Bitcoin) means there is money that people want to invest. The bull case for BTC used to be that money could move from other asset classes like gold and bonds.
As I see it, this has become more likely with liquidations in pretty much all asset classes. The rates of bonds are not very attractive. If stocks tank again, we could see short term effects on BTC, and that is all it takes to see momentum build.

The investment risk / reward is potentially asymmetric. If you invest $2000 and the odds of it going to $0 are roughly the same as it going to $10,000, then it is a good investment option.
This is not a given, though. You need to figure out if you think such a move is likely. If you think the odds of Bitcoin going to 10,000 are 20%, then it is a bet you might not want to take.

The Stock-To-Flow metric makes such a development more likely. If you use it to determine a price after the next halving, it could be worth between $42,000 and $55,000.
Some other Cryptocurrencies are deflationary in their design, meaning their value lies in their potential to serve as an actual currency. I wouldn't bet on those in the hope that they store value well.

I have not fact checked this, but apparently there are so many "lost Bitcoins", that we are unlikely to see much deeper levels than the lows we have seen recently. That also tweaks the risk / reward ratio in favor of Bitcoin.

The biggest risk I see is that another deflationary shock could kill the momentum that is currently building for good and other asset classes "win the race".
 
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MrYoshi

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Man do I regret buying in last week. This is a good lesson to always have some Bitcoin in your portfolio.
I've learned from my mistakes since then and loaded up on BTC for the last few years. :)

I've actually been 100% focused on the crypto space since late 2017 so it's been interesting, to say the least.
 
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Bekit

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This is just a hunch. But I think the US dollar is going to be replaced by some blockchain-based currency as the world's reserve currency. Whether it's Bitcoin or another one, I don't know. But I'm just going to stick my neck out there and say this is my prediction based on my current understanding.
 

Kak

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This is just a hunch. But I think the US dollar is going to be replaced by some blockchain-based currency as the world's reserve currency. Whether it's Bitcoin or another one, I don't know. But I'm just going to stick my neck out there and say this is my prediction based on my current understanding.

I wonder if you are right... Not necessarily from an official reserve currency standpoint, but from a defacto, standpoint. It just one day becomes more stable and better than government manipulated fiat. People compare everything to it.

I bet it scares the hell out of governments. Liberating a free person's ability to exchange value without a government in the middle.
 

nitrousflame

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This is just a hunch. But I think the US dollar is going to be replaced by some blockchain-based currency as the world's reserve currency. Whether it's Bitcoin or another one, I don't know. But I'm just going to stick my neck out there and say this is my prediction based on my current understanding.

This seems inevitable on a long enough time horizon.

Imagine a world of ubiquitous technology, software, automation, AI, etc. Now imagine how value might be created and exchanged. To me, fiat money in such a world would be tantamount to having the USPS deliver your email, or powering a trip to Mars with crude oil.

That said, I doubt we go straight there from where we're at. I think the first stop will be central bank digital currencies. In fact, governments and central banks are already racing toward exactly this. Even the early drafts of the corona virus relief bill had provisions for the creation of a "digital dollar."

It's coming.
 
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Timmy C

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I have some cash sitting on an exchange atm.

Not buying yet, people seem to pumped up about the market.
Not enough fear at the moment for my liking.
 

MrYoshi

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This seems inevitable on a long enough time horizon.

Imagine a world of ubiquitous technology, software, automation, AI, etc. Now imagine how value might be created and exchanged. To me, fiat money in such a world would be tantamount to having the USPS deliver your email, or powering a trip to Mars with crude oil.

That said, I doubt we go straight there from where we're at. I think the first stop will be central bank digital currencies. In fact, governments and central banks are already racing toward exactly this. Even the early drafts of the corona virus relief bill had provisions for the creation of a "digital dollar."

It's coming.
Yup, and once that happens expect all the shitcoins to go higher and for the legit tokens to explode for years to come.
 

scottmsul

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I found an interesting analysis of the stock-to-flow model. For those unfamiliar, stock-to-flow is the ratio of the amount of supply in existence to the new amount of supply created each year. Since its creation, bitcoin's price has been going up exponentially, and so has its stock-to-flow because of the four-year-halvenings. Therefore when plotting them against each other on a log-log plot the result is a straight line. But lots of things are spuriously correlated from pure coincidence, there's a website here showing plenty of silly examples: 15 Insane Things That Correlate With Each Other

Apparently someone tried to disprove stock-to-flow by using cointegration methods to show that the correlations were spurious. But to his surprise the data proved STF even more rigorously. He was using a method called the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which looks at the lags of variables in order to help determine causality. I'm not super familiar with this particular model but if anyone is an expert on time-series regressions you may be interested in his work.

The website is here: BTConometrics - quantitative analysis of bitcoin
He has several articles and even a podcast interview.
 
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Andreas Thiel

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mguerra

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I don't know. I still think (besides investment purposes,) 90% of the use of cryptocurrencies is buying crack on DarkNet markets. That's the reason it has value. Bitcoin is going to be a target for Law Enforcement because of that, and if they have their way the value of BTC is going to nosedive like an eagle going in for a fish.

Expert consensus:

View attachment 32270

View attachment 32273



About the IGM Economic Experts Panel
This panel explores the extent to which economists agree or disagree on major public policy issues. To assess such beliefs we assembled this panel of expert economists. Statistics teaches that a sample of (say) 40 opinions will be adequate to reflect a broader population if the sample is representative of that population.


Just be educated on what you're investing in. Like when you buy stock in Google, you're placing a bet that Google is going to succeed. When you buy Bitcoin you're placing a bet that Bitcoin is going to suceed. You're basically investing in a company that helps people send money anonymously to drug dealers. That is the primary use of Bitcoin. Anything else is naive. I don't care about the moral implications of purchasing guns or drugs.. it's not my business what people buy. I just don't think it's a safe bet. I think the odds of LE shutting down a currency that's primarily used to buy illegal goods is pretty high.

The FBI is going to be cracking down on it. The IRS is going to be cracking down on it. And once that happens, the bubble is going to pop. I mean if you want to gamble on it before it pops.. go for it.. but Bitcoin, I can almost say with 100% certainty, is not here to stay. Other cryptos are potentially a different story.

Thanks for that information, brother. I didn't know this issues about BTC and drug dealers. You've changed my mind about trying to speculate on BTC for a while.

Personally I'm a big believer in blockchain technology and think there's a lot of money to be made if you invest in the right ones. Meaning the ones that solves real-world, real-people problems.

As far as other cryptos goes, can you share your thoughts which ones have a brighter future and why?

Thanks in advance,
 
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Bearcorp

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?
 

Timmy C

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?


Yes mate I have purchased more Vechain a few days ago and i just made another purchase of ETH.


Precious Metals and cryptocurrency I am heavily invested in right now.
 

Matt Sun

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Precious Metals and cryptocurrency I am heavily invested in right now.
Do you buy physical metals ? I think an ETF of rhodium or palladium can be an interesting bet.
Crypto I bought in April/May and now it's nicely up.
 
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scottmsul

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?

I bought a lot of BTC back in May around the halving. The last two halvings were followed by bull markets that lasted 12-18 months, so I'm fairly optimistic.

34337

image source

The way I think about it, price is an equilibrium between supply and demand. For bitcoin, supply is the number of new bitcoin sold each day, and demand is the number of new dollars sold each day. Dividing new dollars by new bitcoin gives units of (dollars/BTC), eg a price. There's three components to understanding bitcoin supply and demand: difficulty adjustments, halvings, and network effects.

Difficulty adjustments keep the supply constant. Currently 6.25 bitcoin are issued every 10 minutes, and miners will sell some of that in order to pay for electricity. Every two weeks, the difficulty is readjusted to keep blocks at 10 minutes. So the supply curve is extremely inelastic, even flat or negative. If the price skyrockets, the same amount of bitcoin get mined (unlike most commodities, eg oil), and less might get sold since miners don't have to use as many BTC to pay for electricity.

Halvings introduce supply shocks. Every four years the number of new BTC issued per block drops in half, with the most recent being in May. Naively, this should double the BTC price, assuming the price is determined by inflows and outflows. However it takes a while to adjust the price because most of the selling volume probably isn't miners but day traders or long-term holders selling their position. I'm curious to see data on this.

Network effects are the real kicker though. One of bitcoin's main use cases is digital gold - it preserves wealth but doesn't pay interest (which is good right now given low interest rates and potentially high inflation). Most investors don't like bitcoin as a store of value because of high volatility. However, as price goes up, volatility goes down, so demand should go up. The fact that bitcoin's demand should increase with price is rather crazy.

The market cap is only $200B which is small compared to many stocks and very small compared to gold. Because it's small in relative terms there's a lot of upside so it's a pretty asymmetrical bet. An econometrics guy under the pseudonym Plan B is predicting $288K for this cycle using a stock-to-flow model but that feels high IMO. The (cycle peak/price at halving) were about 100x and 30x for the last two halvings respectively, so it may be getting weaker each time. 10x seems pretty reasonable though. In the end it's unpredictable but the outlook seems pretty good right now.
 

21elnegocio

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Is there a bot for day tradying crypto anyone ever ran into one?
 
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Timmy C

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Bitcoin has so many flaws.

1. It is replicateable. It would be difficult, but if it grows large enough there will be secondary and tertiary coins with self-sustaining networks as well. They can overtake Bitcoin if they are ‘better’ and crush all crypto credibility as a long term SOV.

2. If Bitcoin is a currency then it needs to keep moving. If it is deflationary this disincentivizes movement as a currency as people hold. This makes Bitcoin more of an asset.

As an asset it gives no value to the holder, and it’s actually a very poor asset to hold. Ponzi-esque.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin.

I think it’s strong and will probably remain strong for the time being, but I am not sold as a full on believer. I think it has a chance otherwise I wouldn't be invested.
 

backslash

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Some of Bitcoin's biggest problem is that it is still small enough to be manipulated. Some big holders can sway the market to "crash" and then buy even more. For that reason people should be careful. Adoption has a long way to go.

I believe in the technology, as in "money for the internet". It is actually built for the internet.
Really, its security features is something we have never seen before. Don't get hung up too much in those crypto exchanges that are hacked every now and then. This is about hackers getting access to their private keys. When you leave these keys exposed to be stolen through the Internet it's bound to happen. The network itself has never been hacked. And that is ridiculous, if you think about the players that would like to see it dead and buried.

If you use those hardware wallets to pay for goods, you are infinitely more secure against fraud compared to using credit cards and other popular solutions on the internet. Look at the numbers when it comes to credit card fraud. It's about hundreds of millions each year. Bitcoin solves this problem.
 

DaanH

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Is there a bot for day tradying crypto anyone ever ran into one?
Yes serveral: Nefertiti, 3commas, Apextrader. I personally use Altrady tradingplatform from where I can maintain an excellent overview of my buy and sell orders on several exchanges.
 
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James Fake

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Long time, no see guys... I am back. 2020 has been bat shit crazy for me on a personal level, it would make a great book lol.

Anyways, on a trading standpoint; I spent most of 2020 riding various swings in both stocks and crypto. Not allowing any exposure to big sudden downsides that I thought was going to happen at any time (although Tesla could actually be popping); may have missed some gains here and there, but didn't miss much.

Anyways.... onto my Bitcoin/Ethereum prediction (copy and pasted straight from my TradingView charts)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
BUY BITCOIN 2021 MOON INCOMING: $10k to $15k to $12k to $25,000+

34816

PRELUDE NOTES: Bitcoin is currently $10,100, and as of currently 9/8/2020... Most of the crypto and investment universe thinks Bitcoin is going to drop hard before it climbs up. That this $10,000 area won't hold. I was one of them. Everybody is calling for $9k or $8k and will completely miss their entry if they don't enter here within the next few days (maybe a week). But by then, it will be too late as the PERFECT LOW ENTRY will have passed. Now onto my prediction...

Imagine being in a time machine and today is the year 2016.. April 27th of 2016 to be exact. What would you do? You would buy Bitcoin .. Immediately. And Hold it for 1.5 years.

From today 9/8/2020 we will go to somewhere in the $15,000ish range, then sell off/pullback into the $12,000ish area around mid-late December 2020. From early January, Bitcoin will climb slowly, steadily, with some ugly fast ups, fast downs, slow ups and slow downs to eventually go from $12,000ish to $25,000+ nearing the end of 2021.

Me, personally, I think ETH has a CRAZY amount of Upside and will likely position majority of my capital into ETH and rest split into BTC . (of course, if this thing does indeed go bull over the next 1.5 years, there will be various cycles of runs that one will experience while the other sits still... I will likely switch back and forth to maximize gains just like I did in the 2017 run up)

Well it's that time again. After doing hours and hours of analysis.. I have concluded, I am completely switched to a FULL ON BULL. Why? Why the 180* flip?

Bitcoin to this date has not proven any real world utility, until now. (I have wrote about this fundamental analysis alot before but going to rehash it real quickly).

BITCOIN WILL FINALLY HAVE IT'S FIRST PROOF OF CONCEPT.. A CONCRETE ONE. ONE THAT IS NO LONGER IN QUESTION. AND THAT IS...

A STORE OF VALUE. A LIMITED ASSET. A GLOBALLY AGREED UPON HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION .

No, its not currency. Bitcoin's DNA and technical backbone would suck at transactions.. But as a store of value, it's GOLD . Literally... But..

Until now and the recent months since COVID hit and the development of the economic conditions, inflation /deflation threats, Fed printing, JPow promises, stocks decoupling from economy, etc... Bitcoin is still a question mark in this utility of "STORE OF VALUE AS A LIMITED PRECIOUS ASSET/METAL". We see it moving with Gold and Silver , but yet there's just simply not enough data, track record, and convincement that it is on the same caliber as a precious metal. Sure.. it's been shadowing it, but it's such a risky, sketchy unknown.. it could literally fall off by the waste side when Gold / Silver does continue it's climb over the next 5 years.

BUT... What IF? What if it is indeed Gold and Silver? What if it is just as good? So far, it's proven it.. What more proof do we need to get a global wide convincement that would set this into a full blown BULL? We need the correlation of the dollar to directly inverse Bitcoin / Gold / Silver and to continue to do it until there is concreteevidence of inflation happening... And once this concrete evidence of inflation is in, there is no more denying that Bitcoin is no longer some skeptical, controversial, speculative asset if that happens.

Then the Bitcoin BULL will begin gaining major traction. Early people like me and the few other crazy bulltards thinking it could actually have a 100% PROVEN REAL WORLD UTILITY now would be in wayyy early while the Early Majority and Late Majority come piling in over the 12 months of 2021.

Let's take some evidence...

JPOW is very, very adament in letting inflation happen, increase, etc. to levels NEVER allowed before. He will no longer suppress inflation . Because he is so scared of the even more serious detrimental effects of Deflation.. The most powerful man in the world is giving everyone a handshake of guarantee that he will do whatever it takes to get the ball rolling for inflation to happen. Over the next 2 years, its highly likely he does indeed print enough money, keep interest rates low, etc. etc. to spark inflation to actually get going.

The dollar will continue to drop in value (to who knows what, I have no earthly idea) and a few other economic conditions that are an after effect of inflation (beyond my brain level that indicate what they are) will almost certainly without a doubt bring..

TRILLIONS LOOKING TO AND CONTINUING TO HOLD ASSETS THAT WILL HEDGE.

Good luck my friends.... Am I crazy? Sure... Will I be rewarded in 1.5 years? Maybe, maybe not. "It's Okay to Try and Fail. It's Not Okay to Fail at giving a Try."

p.s. - Ain't it crazy how we completely forgot all about a Halving that took place in May 2020, 4 months ago... 2020 has been a hell of a year. The halving will begin to have it's effects onto Supply from here on out.
 

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Great value, thanks a lot.
I myself have put quite a lot in Bitcoin recently. About ETH I'm not so sure. But I think the halving will have an extreme impact on Bitcoin in the next 3 months. But maybe it will drop a little before it goes up. But definitely keep my investment in it may put a little more if we see it coming down to 9k or even 8k. You don't think that it comes down right now, do you? If so why not?
 

Bekit

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Long time, no see guys... I am back. 2020 has been bat shit crazy for me on a personal level, it would make a great book lol.

Anyways, on a trading standpoint; I spent most of 2020 riding various swings in both stocks and crypto. Not allowing any exposure to big sudden downsides that I thought was going to happen at any time (although Tesla could actually be popping); may have missed some gains here and there, but didn't miss much.

Anyways.... onto my Bitcoin/Ethereum prediction (copy and pasted straight from my TradingView charts)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
BUY BITCOIN 2021 MOON INCOMING: $10k to $15k to $12k to $25,000+

View attachment 34816

PRELUDE NOTES: Bitcoin is currently $10,100, and as of currently 9/8/2020... Most of the crypto and investment universe thinks Bitcoin is going to drop hard before it climbs up. That this $10,000 area won't hold. I was one of them. Everybody is calling for $9k or $8k and will completely miss their entry if they don't enter here within the next few days (maybe a week). But by then, it will be too late as the PERFECT LOW ENTRY will have passed. Now onto my prediction...

Imagine being in a time machine and today is the year 2016.. April 27th of 2016 to be exact. What would you do? You would buy Bitcoin .. Immediately. And Hold it for 1.5 years.

From today 9/8/2020 we will go to somewhere in the $15,000ish range, then sell off/pullback into the $12,000ish area around mid-late December 2020. From early January, Bitcoin will climb slowly, steadily, with some ugly fast ups, fast downs, slow ups and slow downs to eventually go from $12,000ish to $25,000+ nearing the end of 2021.

Me, personally, I think ETH has a CRAZY amount of Upside and will likely position majority of my capital into ETH and rest split into BTC . (of course, if this thing does indeed go bull over the next 1.5 years, there will be various cycles of runs that one will experience while the other sits still... I will likely switch back and forth to maximize gains just like I did in the 2017 run up)

Well it's that time again. After doing hours and hours of analysis.. I have concluded, I am completely switched to a FULL ON BULL. Why? Why the 180* flip?

Bitcoin to this date has not proven any real world utility, until now. (I have wrote about this fundamental analysis alot before but going to rehash it real quickly).

BITCOIN WILL FINALLY HAVE IT'S FIRST PROOF OF CONCEPT.. A CONCRETE ONE. ONE THAT IS NO LONGER IN QUESTION. AND THAT IS...

A STORE OF VALUE. A LIMITED ASSET. A GLOBALLY AGREED UPON HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION .

No, its not currency. Bitcoin's DNA and technical backbone would suck at transactions.. But as a store of value, it's GOLD . Literally... But..

Until now and the recent months since COVID hit and the development of the economic conditions, inflation /deflation threats, Fed printing, JPow promises, stocks decoupling from economy, etc... Bitcoin is still a question mark in this utility of "STORE OF VALUE AS A LIMITED PRECIOUS ASSET/METAL". We see it moving with Gold and Silver , but yet there's just simply not enough data, track record, and convincement that it is on the same caliber as a precious metal. Sure.. it's been shadowing it, but it's such a risky, sketchy unknown.. it could literally fall off by the waste side when Gold / Silver does continue it's climb over the next 5 years.

BUT... What IF? What if it is indeed Gold and Silver? What if it is just as good? So far, it's proven it.. What more proof do we need to get a global wide convincement that would set this into a full blown BULL? We need the correlation of the dollar to directly inverse Bitcoin / Gold / Silver and to continue to do it until there is concreteevidence of inflation happening... And once this concrete evidence of inflation is in, there is no more denying that Bitcoin is no longer some skeptical, controversial, speculative asset if that happens.

Then the Bitcoin BULL will begin gaining major traction. Early people like me and the few other crazy bulltards thinking it could actually have a 100% PROVEN REAL WORLD UTILITY now would be in wayyy early while the Early Majority and Late Majority come piling in over the 12 months of 2021.

Let's take some evidence...

JPOW is very, very adament in letting inflation happen, increase, etc. to levels NEVER allowed before. He will no longer suppress inflation . Because he is so scared of the even more serious detrimental effects of Deflation.. The most powerful man in the world is giving everyone a handshake of guarantee that he will do whatever it takes to get the ball rolling for inflation to happen. Over the next 2 years, its highly likely he does indeed print enough money, keep interest rates low, etc. etc. to spark inflation to actually get going.

The dollar will continue to drop in value (to who knows what, I have no earthly idea) and a few other economic conditions that are an after effect of inflation (beyond my brain level that indicate what they are) will almost certainly without a doubt bring..

TRILLIONS LOOKING TO AND CONTINUING TO HOLD ASSETS THAT WILL HEDGE.

Good luck my friends.... Am I crazy? Sure... Will I be rewarded in 1.5 years? Maybe, maybe not. "It's Okay to Try and Fail. It's Not Okay to Fail at giving a Try."

p.s. - Ain't it crazy how we completely forgot all about a Halving that took place in May 2020, 4 months ago... 2020 has been a hell of a year. The halving will begin to have it's effects onto Supply from here on out.
Thank you for the great post. I agree with you and am bullish on Bitcoin.

I was surprised, though, that it dropped from the $11,000 range. Why do you think this happened?

Since you're good at reading sentiment, do you see any ramifications on Bitcoin one way or the other based on the results of the elections?
 
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James Fake

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You don't think that it comes down right now, do you? If so why not?

Yes, and no. I think 80% chance we don't drop from here, and then there's the 20% it might happen... only because of some pure technicals on a chart. (outside of technicals, the sentiment matches that of a reaccumulation phase and we are nearing the spring end stage where it gets pushed up and out the price range into a run which is why I am 80% on why it won't happen).

Technicals:
  1. 200 Daily moving average may need to be hit once again and if it retests that and bounces off, that is the clearest Green light for Bitcoin bull that'll ever print lol.
  2. I believe we are around a stage like April 27, 2016. It bounced and tested and looked shaky and looked like a super bad area for entry. It even had a few harsh drops and printed long bottom wicks that touched low (like a 200 daily moving average). We've touched 100 daily MA, but that stupid 200 lol.
  3. Do we need to officially touch down and give another Green light signal like the 200 daily MA on this Huge down trendline we broke finally after 3 years? (draw line from top at 2017 all the way down to all the other highs). This line could also match up to the 200 daily MA as well soon.
So at the current moment; I will take fundamentals and psy first over technicals on a chart.. purely because I believe that behavior is what drives markets that prints as prices. Forecast the behavior is like skipping the middle man. Kind of like peeping and sensing you're about to get cut off in traffic before it happens and preventing any collision. The tell tell signs of someone looking in the side mirror and not noticing you, slight over correction to the other side before switching, etc. Chart technicals would be like seeing their odometer speed which would only give you a possible signal that is about to happen if there is a ever so slight reduction in speed.
 

James Fake

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I was surprised, though, that it dropped from the $11,000 range. Why do you think this happened?

I think it just got over-extended along with most people thought surely a second stimulus to print more money (aka drop the DXY even more) was for sure going to be in effect before the July 31st deadline. As it became clearer that it likely wasn't on the near term horizon, the DXY had a chance to pop up a bit. As soon as we initially left that $11-12k area and we went to re-visit, that it would drop like a rock once it hit $12k.

Proof: Hit play button this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/B...-Route-Leading-Into-Elections-Covid-Recovery/ (however, I am pivoting as I don't think we will drop down as far as on that chart because sentiment kind of shifting course, so scrap anything after that $12k top drop lol)
 

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