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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

James Fake

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Not sure what kind of psychedelic I was on while looking in my magic crystal ball lol.. But go to this I made in June and then hit the Play Button icon..

$2,800 Bitcoin Inside BIG BEAR. Recessions Make Billionaires. for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by dragon

In June, NONE of those fundamentals in the pink boxes were obvious or remotely clear. Facebook Libra was super bull'ish news and I went the complete opposite way. Paypal and now Ebay has withdrew out.

Anyways; I have a feeling the other fundamentals written in the following pink boxes look about still spot on at the current track we're on.

I however, am not sure we hit $2.8k lol. It might, but I'm eye'ing the $5k to $6k areas mostly. But who knows crypto has done some crazier things...
 
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c4n

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My guess is a good chunk of the downward push on the 24th was due to stop losses. If this is true, people are now waiting for the price to go further down to jump back in. If it doesn't do that and it starts to climb again instead, then who knows... FOMO and "I knew I was right, my stop loss was too high" kicks in?

The last retracement bounced from the 0.618 zone (inverse of The Golden Ratio) of the Apr 2 - Jun 26 bull. I am really interested in how it will all play out in the next few months.
 

James Fake

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In the coming days, it's likely Bitcoin does a leg down to touch $7800-7900, if this can hold followed by a quick buy up, it should start an upward trend to retest the $9k's, possibly higher.

Anyways, I say all that to say... XLM ($.0630) and XRP ($.2815) are looking very juicy if Bitcoin can indeed hold.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Haven't paid much attention to BTC/Crypto as of late (last time I looked it was $10,500 BTC) and I see it shitting the tank today.
 
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Lazershow

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If I were you I'd take advantage of this bubble and sell high while people are still buying. Sell all of your bitcoins now because this is too good to be true in my opinion.
I am no expert but some of these these guys are....

Bitcoin Will Top US$40,000, Says Cameron Winklevoss
Bitcoin To Reach US$1 Million By End Of 2022, Says John McAfee
Bitcoin Will Hit US$125,000 By 2022, Says Tom Lee
Bitcoin Will Reach US$250,000 By 2022, Says Tim Draper
Bitcoin To Hit US$50,000 In 2018, Says Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin To US$96,000 By 2023, Says Satis Group
Bitcoin To Trade Between US$8,800 And US$10,000 In 2018, Says Mike Novogratz
Bitcoin Could 'Easily' Surpass US$100k In 3-4 Years, Says Lou Kerner

@ James Fend
I personally would hang on to them buddy, but that's just my opinion ;)

Again, I am no expert but I do not believe Bitcoin has seen its final days. Every four years, Bitcoin does a block reward halving, which means this reduces the amount by half which Bitcoin can be earned by miners. On May 20th 2020, the third Bitcoin halving will occur which means that 50% less Bitcoins will be generated and this could change the value of Bitcoin once again. “Halving” has already occurred twice with Bitcoin, each time boosting Bitcoins price by at least 10x. Despite increased awareness around Bitcoin, not a lot of people seem to be talking about the "halving" and this might be something to take into consideration about its future price. It's simple supply and demand. The less Bitcoin out there in circulation, the more valuable they become. It's not just a bunch of people trying to jump on the bandwagon, research produced by University of Cambridge estimates that in 2017, there were 2.9 to 5.8 million unique users using a cryptocurrency wallet, most of them using Bitcoin (From Wikipedia). There are millions of people across the globe who use Bitcoin every day for personal use since they do not have access to banks and debit cards. Of course there will be investors who cause pump and dumps, market corrections, high and lows but I personally believe Bitcoin going up past its all time high of almost 20,000$. Will Bitcoin die off eventually? Maybe. Or maybe it will be so scarce one day that it will reach the insane prices that the experts are claiming. I don't know, but I do know that I want to have some Bitcoin if or when the price ever reaches the top :)
 

Lazershow

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Once you do dig, like me (because I was once very cautious on Btc), you will be very impressed at how the whole system works.. and you'll see the points of argument you had about it being bubble turn more into points that reflect 'inflated pricing'.

SO TRUE JAMES. I heard of Bitcoin many times before, always looked at it with a closed mind as if it were some kind of Pokemon phantasy play money. I was bored at work and Google searched "Where does Bitcoin get its value" and wallah! After lots and lots of reading, I came to appreciate the technology underneath Bitcoin (blockchain) and was fascinated to say the least, and I'm not a super techy guy either.

I favor projects geared towards changing business and technology long term eg. banking, real estate, healthcare, exchanges, voting/politics, food industry and more. I am not a trader, but a long term Hodler. Can't tell anyone when to buy or sell, I just find projects that I love and do a ton of research, buy and hold.

For anyone here interested but have very little or no knowledge of blockchain. Please do not think blockchain is all about Bitcoin and Ethereum or even currency for that matter. The majority of projects actually have nothing to do with currency and some are extremely impressive! You can invest in a lot of these projects very cheap since most of them are in their "infant stages" and some will grow to be very big one day, it may take some time though.

Wondering if anyone invests in projects other than Bitcoin, Ethereum etc. and who you like?

Get involved now, its still very early :)
Big Players Getting In The Game
 

lewj24

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“Halving” has already occurred twice with Bitcoin, each time boosting Bitcoins price by at least 10x.
I haven't seen any data that supports this. From what I've seen the halving had little effect in the past. Can you show us where you got the 10x number from? Also wouldn't the market already know about the halving and have that priced in theoretically?
 
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James Fake

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@Lazershow thanks.. I believe in the tech. Or rather, I see it as a layer of "internet" once infrastructure allows us to have 'internet without internet'. Or rather; you're always connected when you're not.

I haven't seen any data that supports this.

I've briefly scanned a chart before looking at this. I can say it does happen, however, I'm not sure about 10x or the specific multiple. But if I recall correctly; the price usually goes up just a bit aka getting priced in usually 4-6 months or so out from it.

Also, May 2020 is guaranteed date, it's just a estimation at the current rate.

Anyways, with that said; it has in the past two times created a bull market some time AFTER the halving. Which makes sense cause after the 'halving' news price, there would be a delay where supply and demand slowly skewed towards higher price. However; that was the days when you couldn't short Bitcoin. Now you can; and I have no idea how this will unfold. Might be the complete opposite.
 

James Fake

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Just some personal updating; I have been on a cold streak with crypto. I am 0 for the last 3 swing/position trades. Each having to bail at a loss once it failed. Damage control was bad for one, decent for the others. I have a lot of ground to make up.

Anyways; with that said, I need to dial down my strategy and study the market a bit more. My entries have been terrible.
 

Lazershow

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I haven't seen any data that supports this. From what I've seen the halving had little effect in the past. Can you show us where you got the 10x number from? Also wouldn't the market already know about the halving and have that priced in theoretically?

My fault, I guess the way I put it was a little vague. The whole 10x was just what I have read, not an exact number but it shows that after the halvings price went up significantly within a year give or take and sustained. I'm definitely not saying the halving is the only reason bitcoin went up and that you should throw all your chips on the table for the next one, just what past history has shown...

Blockpublisher
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bitcoinHalvingChart.jpg
 
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lewj24

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This graph is very deceiving because of the y axis. There doesn't seem to be any immediate coordination between halving and Bitcoin's price going up. Check out the prices listed on Wikipedia.

There was a 900% price jump in 5 days in 2010. Had nothing to do with halving.

On Dec. 17th 2017 Bitcoin went up 5% in 24 hours. Had nothing to do with halving.

I don't see any coordination with halving. It's just normal volatile bitcoin. And to say there's a correlation when bitcoin has only been around for 10 years and is halved every 4 doesn't make much sense. there's not enough proof.

The game is different now. Bitcoin is expensive and everyone now knows about it. In 2010 it could rise 900% because it was unknown and cheap. New buyers could flood the market and buy a ton in no time. Nowadays? Bitcoin is expensive. There aren't many new buyers. For it to go up by 5% in one day in 2017 was huge. A 5% move in 2010 would have been laughed at.

The game is different now. The bitcoin market in the past doesn't relate to the current or future market.
 

James Fake

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This graph is very deceiving because of the y axis. There doesn't seem to be any immediate coordination between halving and Bitcoin's price going up. Check out the prices listed on Wikipedia.

There was a 900% price jump in 5 days in 2010. Had nothing to do with halving.

On Dec. 17th 2017 Bitcoin went up 5% in 24 hours. Had nothing to do with halving.

I don't see any coordination with halving. It's just normal volatile bitcoin. And to say there's a correlation when bitcoin has only been around for 10 years and is halved every 4 doesn't make much sense. there's not enough proof.

The game is different now. Bitcoin is expensive and everyone now knows about it. In 2010 it could rise 900% because it was unknown and cheap. New buyers could flood the market and buy a ton in no time. Nowadays? Bitcoin is expensive. There aren't many new buyers. For it to go up by 5% in one day in 2017 was huge. A 5% move in 2010 would have been laughed at.

The game is different now. The bitcoin market in the past doesn't relate to the current or future market.

Good points. Imo; I think it's a combination of all. Meaning "technically" via theories; after a halving, supply would be much harder to get which would make the price increase eventually over time.

And.. on the flip end.. I don't think the halving is the only fundamental that drove those two bull markets either. Complete luck lol.. Hype... etc. etc.

I agree the game is completely different now. Which is why I am Longgg term a super bear. Long term (like 2-3 years) I am bull'ish. Mid-term.. I'm not sure what I am cause I have been stinking it UP so I'll keep my dang mouth shut haha.
 

msufan

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Up from $7400 to $9400 to $9177 at the moment just today. So unpredictable.
 
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TinyTim

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Thought it would test this upper trend line again, but at this speed, wow!!

Entered a speculative short at 9300

Edit: ouch, im out, this isn't stopping
 
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msufan

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Hit $10,400 -- up $3000 in a day! Retreated back to $10053 as I type this. Did not see this one coming.
 

James Fake

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In the coming days, it's likely Bitcoin does a leg down to touch $7800-7900, if this can hold followed by a quick buy up, it should start an upward trend to retest the $9k's, possibly higher.

Anyways, I say all that to say... XLM ($.0630) and XRP ($.2815) are looking very juicy if Bitcoin can indeed hold.

Somehow out of mostly 95% luck and 5% skill lol... I stuck to my guns and was able to keep my positions with XLM and XRP. So far, momentum showing promise for at least holding for another 2-3 weeks maybe.

I am not a fan of holding assets approaching a new year especially with crypto wash movements; will most likely sell in December and stay out until the new year rolls in.
 
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James Fake

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Spent a few hours today to study the Bitcoin market and came up with this analysis of the two likely paths I am watching closely for entry into another swing trade.

Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 1.01.06 AM.png

- - - pasted from my TradingView - - -

There's two routes I think Bitcoin has a strong chance it will take. Blue Line and Orange Line. Both of which eventually reach $8,800 or higher by mid January, but with a prime opportunity and spot (green circle area at the top trend line ) to fill the CME $11.7k gap; I am hoping we touch that price instead by mid-January.

The two paths depend heavily on if we make it back above the weekly 50 MA or not this week. I lean heavily towards the Blue Line being most likely to happen which is that it will fail, dump down, create a shoulder, create a head (local bottom possibly on weekly 200 MA), and a last shoulder (this all in December) that should ultimately take this inverse head and shoulders pattern sideways out of the descending channel and exiting out the right (sometime in the first or second week of January). I don't think we are in a descending wedge (meaning the bottom is actually much lower than people anticipate but much higher than the super bears), and I believe we don't "shoot" out of this channel, but rather hit the bottom trend line of it again, then kind of scoot along sideways until we're out of it.

Here are some other factors I'm looking at:

- End of year. Annual wash trade to get those capital gains taxes in check. Which btw; the US has no tax wash laws for crypto currently. I don't forsee any rallys coming in December except a bottom and then a range before a following rally that will occur in early 2020. An inverse head and shoulders play would be perfect here in December, and it would also be a reverse pattern strong and convincing enough to warrant a rally to $11.7k starting possibly in January. I am not certain if we find an "absolute bottom" for this entire Bitcoin thing, but I do think we find a local bottom sometime in December that would be a good entry to a possibly relief rally.

- CME gap at $11.7k. Gaps don't have to be filled any time; it could be weeks, months, even years. However, I'm thinking CME is aiming for sooner rather than later. The top trend line drawn from the peaks of the two big rallys puts the price $11,700k in that January month. I think this would be a good spot where it would meet and touch the price and then get knocked back down from the top trend line resistance.

- Retail trader's sentiment is about 50/50 right now. The big overall trend is Down however, and it is likely the big ocean current will continue winning for the mid-term.

- The future Halving imo should not be too heavily weighted as I believe Bitcoin since the last halving include much bigger, financially experienced whales that not only have the ability to short (and capital and time), but to be able to Price In events before they are even in the picture view yet. It might be a possibly that the last rally with the $13k top was indeed the Pricing In.

- CNBC has unleashed a flury of negative bearish tweets including bad news of big drops, and a short article posted appearing on the front main website page. CNBC coupled with FUD from China's crypto bans. However, Usually with public "bad" news - it will create a short term opposite move (in this case a short bounce) but then return back to actually being bear'ish just like CNBC is presenting. However, it usually also means that there is a local bottom not too distant with only one or two more legs down in the sell off.

It's probably more stuff I looked into and analyzed and can't think of. Kind of short on time, but hopefully this gives you an another perspective or angle towards your own predictions. Anyways... Good luck.
 

James Fake

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Same chart from a few posts ago. I was leaning towards the Blue line and failing the 50 weekly MA, however, so far the price action is following the Orange line. If so, then should be a slow trek upwards in December with a really good January. There are a couple stipulations that MUST be met with price action for this to follow through:

1. The weekly candle closes at least $350+ above the weekly 50 MA price (~$7,600+)

2. On the retrace from the $8,000 20 daily MA, it should retest and touch the weekly 50 MA and hold it.

3. If things can hold there and not break, then that should be the "Go" signal for most algorithms.

Good luck.


 

Debby_Tompkins

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Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.

Thanks, it was quiet informative.
 
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James Fake

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Just FYI.. I am still eye'ing a possible $11,800 touch near the end of January. If not then, in February. By end of March, a sell off should start occurring in preparation for the "halving".

Here's a pasted comment I made regarding why I think this run up to near $12,000 is likely to occur.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

entiment: grief. anger.

result: bearish bias causing sentiment mis-read that only fits bias

mis-read: euphoria and greed are not the same sentiment. either sentiment can exist without the presence of another. there “greed” is incorrectly identified by a large margin.

actual greed: bulls are happy. yet bulls are cautious near the major 200dma resist line. bulls if greedy would be piling on. in fact, the exact opposite is happening. shorts are at all time highs by 2x to 3x which indicates many over leveraged. THAT is the actual greed. “Timing the top” is GREED, happy but exercising extreme caution including partial profit taking is NOT greed (that is actually minor fear)

likely outcome: smart investors identify this counter-signal of anger and surprise pump the price clean through the 200dma ($9000) after a fakeout drop from consolidation.

the strong push pump will liquidate the ath of over leveraged shorts (greedy) and force other shorts to cover.. this ultimately results in creating an equally strong price push in addition to the whales 200dma break pump

recommendation: do not short. play the upcoming consolidation correctly and neutrally.


note: sentiment usually goes: relief > happy > euphoria > invincibility > and finally greed.

current: bulls = between relief and happy. bears = grief. anger. revenge. clouded logic due to over whelming hidden emotions.
 

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I warned everyone I knew back in 2017 that apart from bitcoin, all the other coins were worthless. I know someone who’s lost 60k. I hope people avoid all those coins.
 
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ZZZ

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I wanted everyone I knew back in 2017 that apart from bitcoin, all the other coins were worthless. I know someone who’s lost 60k. I hope people avoid all those coins.
You aren't talking about Eth, bcash, monero, ripple, right? Those certainly aren't worthless.
I agree 99% of altcoins are crap. But the top 25 or so aren't. Monero for example is unique & valuable because it's totally private transactions. Ripple is fast, takes seconds to use compared to bitcoin taking an hour sometimes for a few confirmations.
 

Rivoli

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You aren't talking about Eth, bcash, monero, ripple, right? Those certainly aren't worthless.
I agree 99% of altcoins are crap. But the top 25 or so aren't. Monero for example is unique & valuable because it's totally private transactions. Ripple is fast, takes seconds to use compared to bitcoin taking an hour sometimes for a few confirmations.


Those are worthless, in my best judgment.
 

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To you, losing 90% of value isn’t enough to consider a investment worthless?

All due respect, this is a very strange metric for considering the validity of an investment.

WunTvwqh.png


AMZN has lost over 90% of its value before. Would you consider Amazon worthless?
 

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To you, losing 90% of value isn’t enough to consider a investment worthless?
Sorry, I guess I should have been more clear in my question of "Why do you think they aren't worth anything".

Do you mind sharing what your friend invested in 2017 that caused him to lose $60k? Maybe we can learn something other than just "Altcoin bad!"
 
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Rivoli

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All due respect, this is a very strange metric for considering the validity of an investment.

WunTvwqh.png


AMZN has lost over 90% of its value before. Would you consider Amazon worthless?
During the 2001 recession. These dropped 90% in value at the top of a bull market.
 
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Rivoli

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Sorry, I guess I should have been more clear in my question of "Why do you think they aren't worth anything".

Do you mind sharing what your friend invested in 2017 that caused him to lose $60k? Maybe we can learn something other than just "Altcoin bad!"
Etherium and litecoin. He only owns bitcoin now
 

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