Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[JamesDB]

In 2000 everybody was an expert in tech companies, your brother in law, your mother etc.
In 2007 strippers had 4 houses they were flipping.
In 2011 my taxi driver and my barber told me that they wanted to invest in Gold.

Today, not yet, but wait for it.


The concept is and will remain forever the same, it's just human nature, period.

 

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[Vigilante]

LTC trading on CoinBase it is suspended right now but at least my wire transfer showed up.

I need to jump ship over to the sister platform.

 

[Vigilante]

So I thought I'd put my trading hat on and make a few comments. I didn't mean to come in and say Bitcoin is going to 0 because it is a bubble. Also my sense from reading this thread is it younger guys who may be trading seriously for the first time in their lives. I am a bit of a grizzled vet and maybe too old and set in my ways to have embraced this technology anyways. However I was a full time self financed stock and commodity trader for nearly 12 years and for approx 5 years made a living doing it. Not a great living, probably not enough for a wife and kids,but still actually paid the bills. I don't say that to brag I was no George Soros but trust me it is harder than you think. I don't think there are too many trading experiences that I have not experienced. Everything from drug like highs to actually needing to lunge at the garbage so I could throw up. (Lock limit move in live hogs don't ask anymore please)

Full disclaimer I truly believe Bitcoin is going to 0 someday, and if not I believe the advantages, especially in US will be legislated away eventually. But good trading is good trading.

A few points to BitCoin traders,
1. You have caught a 1-3 market of a lifetime. ENJOY IT!! If you are new to trading you have no idea how rare this is. Savor it. Trading is usually extremely hard, low margin, thankless etc, The last market like this was probably Internet bubble 1999-2000. Be addicted to it! Eat, sleep, breathe Bitcoin. Know everything. Sleep with your phone so you can check prices at night. I am not joking I am really not. In the fall of 2008 I made a small fortune (to me anyways) when markets were collapsing, my regret is I didn't enjoy it more. It was my high water mark as a trader and I didn't enjoy it like I should have.

2. Why is it important to savor it? Because it will not last, simple as that. I don't mean it will go to 0. I mean volatility will dry up. Although I here a lot that it "is totally new", or "nothing like it in history.". It is still a tradable instrument, and one that appears free of manipulation. So it will trade like every other instrument. Which means eventually the market will figure out how to price it and the volatility will disappear and it will move into a range. At this point the wild trading swings and just being able to hold for new highs will be gone.

3. If you are absolutely confident in your beliefs and analysis push the envelope and your risk factor. Although I suspect it is very late to suggest this. The point is when markets like this come along they can be life changing, don't miss that. This is my biggest regret in 2008 when markets were starting to collapse. I had quite literally a perfect read on the markets, I understood what was happening and I had strategies that worked perfect in that environment. Without a word of lie I could have made 7 figures in 90 days. But I made less than a tenth of that because I was afraid to push the envelope. Thinking I should still be trading cautiously. What I missed in 2008 wasn't market analysis, it was how special 2008 was. Same thing with internet bubble.

4. Remember the true measure of a successful trader is not %return, not what one year of your income tax return says, not how many great calls you make, not how high your account equity got, the true measure of a trader is, "how much money did you take out of the market?" I can't stress that enough. By out I mean out of your trading account into a bank account where you can buy stuff with it. I don't mean you need to spend it, but it needs to be removed from trading account. Pay living expenses, buy a car, or just save it. But actually remove it from harms way in your trading account.

5. Building on point 4. DO NOT SPEND UNREALIZED GAINS EVER! Especially for taxes. And they are due on Dec 31st not April 15th. Sorry for the caps but it is that important. You have no idea how many traders got badly burned during internet bubble when they had a huge tax bill in 1999 and all the money was gone by March 2000 but they hadn't paid taxes yet. And unrealized includes trades closed but money still in trading account. I dont mean to pick on James as his contributions here are epic and more importantly he has been gifted an INSIDERS subscription which is the highest fast lane honour of all. Also I don't like giving unsolicited advice especially to people I don't know. He may have more trading experience than me in which case I look silly. So I mean it as a painful lesson I learned trading junior exploration stocks in 2005-2006. James made the comment that he went out with family for fresh expensive crab with a tiny portion of trading profits a day ago. You should absolutely do things like this, you need to celebrate successes. It is important and fun. But make sure you actually take the money out, even only a few hundred dollars. Make this a rule you never break. Trust me not only will you enjoy it more but if you do get caught in downdraft it won't hurt nearly as much. Especially as gains get bigger. Next thing you know you'll pick up 10-15K on a Friday trading and decide to fly to SanDiego for a football game, however you'll think"I'll take money out next month or once account is over 250k etc." You get hit with a downdraft and suddenly you have the bill for a trip that may represent regret rather than celebration. Everyone says how easy to convert or send Bitcoin is. If you are going to spend gains take them out of account and really enjoy.

6. The Bad will happen. I know it feels like Bitcoin is revolutionary. It feels like there had never been anything that even compares to it, so old rules, especially valuation rules don't apply. There may be a kernel of truth to this in the early days when it is taking off to the moon. But ultimately it is currency, a freely traded currency without central bank influence obviously, but still a currency. Its value will eventually be set solely by that metric. Because it is a unique product and because it being used primarily as a tool to speculate in it is easy to forget that. We could soar to 12,500 tomorrow on George Soros saying Bitcoin is the future. Remember how internet analysts could move stocks back in 1999-2000? But eventually it is going to move on its utility as a currency.

7. Markets at all time highs trade differently. They are special. They can run up much farther than you think. Up until the drop today yesterday there was not a single person who was down money from any purchase point. This gives unbelievable rocket fuel because all the "sell when I get back to even people" simply do not exist. Once we retrace more for a significant period of time rather than price a market accumulates a lot of these. And this make new highs much tougher.

8. If things work perfectly there is still much that can go wrong. As I have thought about Bitcoin the last few days I thought maybe a good best case comparison is Amazon. The internet was completely disruptive technology. I don't think even the most bullish Bitcoin person could think Bitcoin is more revolutionary and transformative than the internet. We'll call Amazon the cream of the original internet crop. It has risen from virtually nothing to nearly 1200 USD per share. However between March of 2000 and Oct 2001, Amazon dropped from over $75 to 5.5. It lost over 90% of it's value. And it was the perfect internet company. If you don't like stock comparisons go to currencies. Although not as dire as stocks 30-50 percent moves are certainly possible. So build that into your risk profile. A 50-90% move is not only possible it is probable. And it doesn't mean anything is wrong or bad, it is just moving like every other tradable instrument in the universe.

I wish all of you really good trading . If it is just the first of a huge leg up to 25000, I really do hope you all catch it. If your understanding of this unfamiliar technology allows you to understand an intrinsic value of 100,000 I really hope you have the fortitude and patience to ride it out. But please take some money all the way out along the way.

Pure gold

Threads like this and comments like yours are what keep me coming back to this place. The continuing education you can receive at this forum exceeds any MBA program you could ever go to. You've summarized excellently that discipline needed for everyone from the Casual to the serious investor. Anytime you are playing with money, some common sense and basic disciplines should be applied and you just summarized a lifetime of learning into one post. Thank you.

 

[TKDTyler]

Quite an interesting day in crypto land. I followed the charts last night as BTC/LTC ran over $10,000/$100 respectively but figured this would happen. I also followed live as the correction occurred today and things seem to have rebounded ok. Needed to fill some gaps left behind in the 79-90 range and consolidate for a future run. New price target is $115-120 LTC by end of the year. I think now both coins have good support to firmly enter their new price ranges and stay there. There WILL be corrections to come but at much higher altitudes. @MrYoshi I have to agree with @JamesFend. Don't think we will see $7k again in Bitcoin...unless it was crashing through the floor.

On Coinbase/GDAX, today was an important stress test and both exchanges failed. Coinbase is adding 100,000 new accounts per day to complicate the issue. For traders it was a huge annoyance because many missed out on buying the huge dip, and for shaky hands it might have been a blessing because panicked sellers couldn't get out. Now that prices have rebounded they are probably breathing relief. Not a good thing in general but I am confident Coinbase will make good use of their high trading fees to upgrade the system now. *wink wink*

Thank you for writing this. Rep+

 

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[ljean]

So I thought I'd put my trading hat on and make a few comments. I didn't mean to come in and say Bitcoin is going to 0 because it is a bubble. Also my sense from reading this thread is it younger guys who may be trading seriously for the first time in their lives. I am a bit of a grizzled vet and maybe too old and set in my ways to have embraced this technology anyways. However I was a full time self financed stock and commodity trader for nearly 12 years and for approx 5 years made a living doing it. Not a great living, probably not enough for a wife and kids,but still actually paid the bills. I don't say that to brag I was no George Soros but trust me it is harder than you think. I don't think there are too many trading experiences that I have not experienced. Everything from drug like highs to actually needing to lunge at the garbage so I could throw up. (Lock limit move in live hogs don't ask anymore please)

Full disclaimer I truly believe Bitcoin is going to 0 someday, and if not I believe the advantages, especially in US will be legislated away eventually. But good trading is good trading.

A few points to BitCoin traders,
1. You have caught a 1-3 market of a lifetime. ENJOY IT!! If you are new to trading you have no idea how rare this is. Savor it. Trading is usually extremely hard, low margin, thankless etc, The last market like this was probably Internet bubble 1999-2000. Be addicted to it! Eat, sleep, breathe Bitcoin. Know everything. Sleep with your phone so you can check prices at night. I am not joking I am really not. In the fall of 2008 I made a small fortune (to me anyways) when markets were collapsing, my regret is I didn't enjoy it more. It was my high water mark as a trader and I didn't enjoy it like I should have.

2. Why is it important to savor it? Because it will not last, simple as that. I don't mean it will go to 0. I mean volatility will dry up. Although I here a lot that it "is totally new", or "nothing like it in history.". It is still a tradable instrument, and one that appears free of manipulation. So it will trade like every other instrument. Which means eventually the market will figure out how to price it and the volatility will disappear and it will move into a range. At this point the wild trading swings and just being able to hold for new highs will be gone.

3. If you are absolutely confident in your beliefs and analysis push the envelope and your risk factor. Although I suspect it is very late to suggest this. The point is when markets like this come along they can be life changing, don't miss that. This is my biggest regret in 2008 when markets were starting to collapse. I had quite literally a perfect read on the markets, I understood what was happening and I had strategies that worked perfect in that environment. Without a word of lie I could have made 7 figures in 90 days. But I made less than a tenth of that because I was afraid to push the envelope. Thinking I should still be trading cautiously. What I missed in 2008 wasn't market analysis, it was how special 2008 was. Same thing with internet bubble.

4. Remember the true measure of a successful trader is not %return, not what one year of your income tax return says, not how many great calls you make, not how high your account equity got, the true measure of a trader is, "how much money did you take out of the market?" I can't stress that enough. By out I mean out of your trading account into a bank account where you can buy stuff with it. I don't mean you need to spend it, but it needs to be removed from trading account. Pay living expenses, buy a car, or just save it. But actually remove it from harms way in your trading account.

5. Building on point 4. DO NOT SPEND UNREALIZED GAINS EVER! Especially for taxes. And they are due on Dec 31st not April 15th. Sorry for the caps but it is that important. You have no idea how many traders got badly burned during internet bubble when they had a huge tax bill in 1999 and all the money was gone by March 2000 but they hadn't paid taxes yet. And unrealized includes trades closed but money still in trading account. I dont mean to pick on James as his contributions here are epic and more importantly he has been gifted an INSIDERS subscription which is the highest fast lane honour of all. Also I don't like giving unsolicited advice especially to people I don't know. He may have more trading experience than me in which case I look silly. So I mean it as a painful lesson I learned trading junior exploration stocks in 2005-2006. James made the comment that he went out with family for fresh expensive crab with a tiny portion of trading profits a day ago. You should absolutely do things like this, you need to celebrate successes. It is important and fun. But make sure you actually take the money out, even only a few hundred dollars. Make this a rule you never break. Trust me not only will you enjoy it more but if you do get caught in downdraft it won't hurt nearly as much. Especially as gains get bigger. Next thing you know you'll pick up 10-15K on a Friday trading and decide to fly to SanDiego for a football game, however you'll think"I'll take money out next month or once account is over 250k etc." You get hit with a downdraft and suddenly you have the bill for a trip that may represent regret rather than celebration. Everyone says how easy to convert or send Bitcoin is. If you are going to spend gains take them out of account and really enjoy.

6. The Bad will happen. I know it feels like Bitcoin is revolutionary. It feels like there had never been anything that even compares to it, so old rules, especially valuation rules don't apply. There may be a kernel of truth to this in the early days when it is taking off to the moon. But ultimately it is currency, a freely traded currency without central bank influence obviously, but still a currency. Its value will eventually be set solely by that metric. Because it is a unique product and because it being used primarily as a tool to speculate in it is easy to forget that. We could soar to 12,500 tomorrow on George Soros saying Bitcoin is the future. Remember how internet analysts could move stocks back in 1999-2000? But eventually it is going to move on its utility as a currency.

7. Markets at all time highs trade differently. They are special. They can run up much farther than you think. Up until the drop today yesterday there was not a single person who was down money from any purchase point. This gives unbelievable rocket fuel because all the "sell when I get back to even people" simply do not exist. Once we retrace more for a significant period of time rather than price a market accumulates a lot of these. And this make new highs much tougher.

8. If things work perfectly there is still much that can go wrong. As I have thought about Bitcoin the last few days I thought maybe a good best case comparison is Amazon. The internet was completely disruptive technology. I don't think even the most bullish Bitcoin person could think Bitcoin is more revolutionary and transformative than the internet. We'll call Amazon the cream of the original internet crop. It has risen from virtually nothing to nearly 1200 USD per share. However between March of 2000 and Oct 2001, Amazon dropped from over $75 to 5.5. It lost over 90% of it's value. And it was the perfect internet company. If you don't like stock comparisons go to currencies. Although not as dire as stocks 30-50 percent moves are certainly possible. So build that into your risk profile. A 50-90% move is not only possible it is probable. And it doesn't mean anything is wrong or bad, it is just moving like every other tradable instrument in the universe.

I wish all of you really good trading . If it is just the first of a huge leg up to 25000, I really do hope you all catch it. If your understanding of this unfamiliar technology allows you to understand an intrinsic value of 100,000 I really hope you have the fortitude and patience to ride it out. But please take some money all the way out along the way.

Youngsters take heed - this is some of the best trading advice you will find across the entire internet.

 

[James Fake]

November 30, 2017 Update:
Gonna go on a bit of a rant here.. It's me hating the player & not the game, so I mean no offense (although I think this group is more than likely the exceptions)..

Once again today; as US wakes up.. ALL coins go on a massive drop due to panic selling from extremely shaky hands. And just like clock work; around 7pm evening time, Korea and China will wake up and gobble up coins for cheap and prices will rally up. (more than likely not as the previous day's high)..

A seasoned crypto'er knows Ain't no way Bitcoin should be going down with Nasdaq news + CME and future fork looming in 2 weeks. So imo; something doesn't smell right. After sniffing around; here's what I think is going on:

I believe at least 60%+ of new US investors bought their first coin using a credit card or money they could not afford to lose. I say this because America has a debt problem, it's a cultural thing. And pure fomo made these new investors buy coins with money they had no business using.

Another great speculation: I believe there will be a lot of late December rent payments & a spike in credit card chargebacks lol.

Extremely weak hands are a sign of using money they can't afford to lose. New US investors wake up, check our phones in the bed, see a price $50 cheaper than what it was before they went to sleep (literally .005% change of a $9,000 Bitcoin) and panic sell. Someone who is using money they can afford to lose, figures the money is lost anyways as soon as they invested it, and can wait out until prices come back.

Again; I'm just ranting here about the players. And I could be 110% completely wrong, but my gut feeling tells me this is what's triggering the drops from us. And once again; my money is "locked up" in LTC until Asia frees me again later today.

A few lessons that everyone can take away:

1. We've never seen Fomo Level this high which results in a never-seen-before massive wave of new investors. Next time; I am digging much deeper in who & how exactly they are buying their coins.

2. Bitcoin is always volatile, but it's volatile on a different level right now. It's swings are bigger due to sheer size, it's rallies are stronger and bigger... but it can pivot, move, and switch on a dime just as fast as it was when it was smaller. So pretty much; like a Lebron James of crypto.. something that big should not be moving that fast & agile lol.

Anyways; my point is since I day-trade, I need to reduce risks of getting caught by making my shorts even shorter.

3. I suspect this same cycle will repeat again for a few days.. there will be a ton of these new investors (a bit braver than the first waves) being over-loaded with conflicting info on what to do. The smart investors telling them to hold and wait it out, but December 5th (a common last grace day you can pay rent without penalty) is coming soon; and they can't afford to wait much longer. And then their buddies who they all joined and began investing together with, are all screaming "SELL! Bitcoin bubble is bursting!" - these waves of people are still coming.

With that said; I plan on taking full advantage of this.. I will observe at 6am tomorrow and if it's doing another massive dip; buy at low point and sell at ~7pm.

On a Side Note - I cannot emphasize enough how great of advice @farmer79 laid out on us in his most recent post on this thread. I suggest every single one of you to read it. It's about as close to being able to take a time-machine into the future to see how Bitcoin's early & mid growth stages will develop and how to play your cards. Thanks again for those bombs @farmer79 !

 

[Lex DeVille]

November 30, 2017 Update:
Gonna go on a bit of a rant here.. It's me hating the player & not the game, so I mean no offense (although I think this group is more than likely the exceptions)..

Once again today; as US wakes up.. ALL coins go on a massive drop due to panic selling from extremely shaky hands. And just like clock work; around 7pm evening time, Korea and China will wake up and gobble up coins for cheap and prices will rally up. (more than likely not as the previous day's high)..

A seasoned crypto'er knows Ain't no way Bitcoin should be going down with Nasdaq news + CME and future fork looming in 2 weeks. So imo; something doesn't smell right. After sniffing around; here's what I think is going on:

I believe at least 60%+ of new US investors bought their first coin using a credit card or money they could not afford to lose. I say this because America has a debt problem, it's a cultural thing. And pure fomo made these new investors buy coins with money they had no business using.

Another great speculation: I believe there will be a lot of late December rent payments & a spike in credit card chargebacks lol.

Extremely weak hands are a sign of using money they can't afford to lose. New US investors wake up, check our phones in the bed, see a price $50 cheaper than what it was before they went to sleep (literally .005% change of a $9,000 Bitcoin) and panic sell. Someone who is using money they can afford to lose, figures the money is lost anyways as soon as they invested it, and can wait out until prices come back.

Again; I'm just ranting here about the players. And I could be 110% completely wrong, but my gut feeling tells me this is what's triggering the drops from us. And once again; my money is "locked up" in LTC until Asia frees me again later today.

A few lessons that everyone can take away:

1. We've never seen Fomo Level this high which results in a never-seen-before massive wave of new investors. Next time; I am digging much deeper in who & how exactly they are buying their coins.

2. Bitcoin is always volatile, but it's volatile on a different level right now. It's swings are bigger due to sheer size, it's rallies are stronger and bigger... but it can pivot, move, and switch on a dime just as fast as it was when it was smaller. So pretty much; like a Lebron James of crypto.. something that big should not be moving that fast & agile lol.

Anyways; my point is since I day-trade, I need to reduce risks of getting caught by making my shorts even shorter.

3. I suspect this same cycle will repeat again for a few days.. there will be a ton of these new investors (a bit braver than the first waves) being over-loaded with conflicting info on what to do. The smart investors telling them to hold and wait it out, but December 5th (a common last grace day you can pay rent without penalty) is coming soon; and they can't afford to wait much longer. And then their buddies who they all joined and began investing together with, are all screaming "SELL! Bitcoin bubble is bursting!" - these waves of people are still coming.

With that said; I plan on taking full advantage of this.. I will observe at 6am tomorrow and if it's doing another massive dip; buy at low point and sell at ~7pm.

On a Side Note - I cannot emphasize enough how great of advice @farmer79 laid out on us in his most recent post on this thread. I suggest every single one of you to read it. It's about as close to being able to take a time-machine into the future to see how Bitcoin's early & mid growth stages will develop and how to play your cards. Thanks again for those bombs @farmer79 !

Interesting points. I've been wondering why everyone freaks out about risk. Markets go up. They go down. They go up. They go down. Seems like if you wait long enough, and aren't invested all in one place, you'll probably be alright.

I didn't realize investing on credit was a thing. Sounds like the worst idea ever. Guess it makes sense why they'd worry about risk from that standpoint.

 

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[mike24601]

Word I'm seeing is that Coinbase is soiling the bed AGAIN and is largely responsible for today's dip. Not a correction so much as the largest exchange is FUBAR and we can't get enough buy orders through to remain buoyant. Not a good look.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Doesn't betting on Bitcoins going up in value violate the commandment of Control?

Are you confusing CURRENCY and/or an INVESTMENT with a BUSINESS?

It's kinda like asking, "Doesn'tt the US Dollar violate the commandment of control?" (Because the government can default/hyper-inflate it/etc.)

When I buy shares of a company to get a dividend, I also have no control. (A shareholder vote is not relevant unless you own blocks)

 

[JohnBuffet]

Thanks for the great info guys. I have a few questions. Bitcoin dropped now to 9,487 as I am typing. Is it time to buy? Or should we wait to see if it dips even more? I was about to buy some last night when it was over 10k, but i heard it was going to dip so I didn't. Is right now the time, or will it go down more?

2- Do you guys who have experience suggest buying bitcoin, ETH, Litecoin, or something else all together? What is the best way to make use of this bubble?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Is right now the time, or will it go down more?

You realize that no one here truly knows?

What is the best way to make use of this bubble?

You want to buy some, but think its a bubble? That's a contradiction. If you think it's a bubble, stay away and keep your cash in your wallet.

 

[JohnBuffet]

You realize that no one here truly knows?



You want to buy some, but think its a bubble? That's a contradiction. If you think it's a bubble, stay away and keep your cash in your wallet.

Yes i do think it is a bubble. I do think it will burst. But not yet. I think there is time to make money and get out. I don't think its a good, viable long term option. But for a short way to make some money.

 

[jsk29]

It’s not backed by anything.
It’s a bubble.



On a side note, as frustrating as Coinbase’s downtime has been, I found this impressive: Coinbase Obtains Partial Victory Over IRS – The Coinbase Blog

Will continue to use their services for now.

 

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[MrYoshi]

Do y'all want to know something funny? I purchased hundreds of domains after Amazon bought a bunch of domains related to cryptocurrencies - Amazon just bought three domain names related to cryptocurrency

I then found out what cybersquatting is lol. Now every domain in total has an estimated value of over $100k, but I'm trying to figure out if it's illegal haha. It's actually kinda scary.

Edit: My brother just got a message from a huge bank and massive lawyer. I'm going to hire someone and probably remove them all lol. That's life.

 

[farmer79]

Thankyou everyone for your kind words and all the rep. I hope to see some of you at meetup in Phoenix. Best of luck trading.

 

[Kingmaker]

November 30, 2017 Update:
Gonna go on a bit of a rant here.. It's me hating the player & not the game, so I mean no offense (although I think this group is more than likely the exceptions)..

Once again today; as US wakes up.. ALL coins go on a massive drop due to panic selling from extremely shaky hands. And just like clock work; around 7pm evening time, Korea and China will wake up and gobble up coins for cheap and prices will rally up. (more than likely not as the previous day's high)..

A seasoned crypto'er knows Ain't no way Bitcoin should be going down with Nasdaq news + CME and future fork looming in 2 weeks. So imo; something doesn't smell right. After sniffing around; here's what I think is going on:

I believe at least 60%+ of new US investors bought their first coin using a credit card or money they could not afford to lose. I say this because America has a debt problem, it's a cultural thing. And pure fomo made these new investors buy coins with money they had no business using.

Another great speculation: I believe there will be a lot of late December rent payments & a spike in credit card chargebacks lol.

Extremely weak hands are a sign of using money they can't afford to lose. New US investors wake up, check our phones in the bed, see a price $50 cheaper than what it was before they went to sleep (literally .005% change of a $9,000 Bitcoin) and panic sell. Someone who is using money they can afford to lose, figures the money is lost anyways as soon as they invested it, and can wait out until prices come back.

Again; I'm just ranting here about the players. And I could be 110% completely wrong, but my gut feeling tells me this is what's triggering the drops from us. And once again; my money is "locked up" in LTC until Asia frees me again later today.

A few lessons that everyone can take away:

1. We've never seen Fomo Level this high which results in a never-seen-before massive wave of new investors. Next time; I am digging much deeper in who & how exactly they are buying their coins.

2. Bitcoin is always volatile, but it's volatile on a different level right now. It's swings are bigger due to sheer size, it's rallies are stronger and bigger... but it can pivot, move, and switch on a dime just as fast as it was when it was smaller. So pretty much; like a Lebron James of crypto.. something that big should not be moving that fast & agile lol.

Anyways; my point is since I day-trade, I need to reduce risks of getting caught by making my shorts even shorter.

3. I suspect this same cycle will repeat again for a few days.. there will be a ton of these new investors (a bit braver than the first waves) being over-loaded with conflicting info on what to do. The smart investors telling them to hold and wait it out, but December 5th (a common last grace day you can pay rent without penalty) is coming soon; and they can't afford to wait much longer. And then their buddies who they all joined and began investing together with, are all screaming "SELL! Bitcoin bubble is bursting!" - these waves of people are still coming.

With that said; I plan on taking full advantage of this.. I will observe at 6am tomorrow and if it's doing another massive dip; buy at low point and sell at ~7pm.

On a Side Note - I cannot emphasize enough how great of advice @farmer79 laid out on us in his most recent post on this thread. I suggest every single one of you to read it. It's about as close to being able to take a time-machine into the future to see how Bitcoin's early & mid growth stages will develop and how to play your cards. Thanks again for those bombs @farmer79 !

This. The whole "buy when there's blood in the streets" was playing in my head when I bought some more $414 ETH this morning. It's $435 a couple hours later, but I'm planning to hold ETH indefinitely, it's not getting much hype in the news like bitcoin but as a the leading platform on which the infrastracture will be built it's a good long play imo as long as it remains the leader.

 

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[James Fake]

Thoughts? Are all the new people propping up the price and it's gonna crash when they get try to get out, or this is just the beginning of the herd rush?

Your post was largely missed. Re-reading through it now (and adding my theory) - I can see the under-lying signal this should have told me when I first read it. Instead; all I got initially was another a bull signal. Which it is a bull'ish sign. But it's two-parted.

Very interesting question though. I can see both happening at every level (price of Bitcoin); and I can also see both changing slightly at every level as well. Here's my equation lol..

A - (B * C) = Net Gain of solid new investors & advocates of blockchain tech

A = The herd rush
B = Weak handed investors that can't afford to lose money and also has no real interest in the tech at all
C = A percentage that goes up as Bitcoin's price level goes up because the swings/dips/etc. get scarier

I want to throw in; I hate math, but this was the only way to clearly explain it lol.

I also want to add in; I can't blame these people one bit (if my theory is some what correct).. because right now it's more like a You're Stupid If You Don't Take A Loan Or Use Your Rent Money Right Now type thing imo. I actually advocate loans to leverage moves (like in any business) but not until you have proven traction. And these new investors don't have enough skin in the game to be using any form of debt as a bank roll.

I also put part blame on Coinbase for accepting credit cards as a form of payment to begin with (that was a greedy move on them). Just like the casino gambling industry; it should be an all cash in type thing. Although it really wouldn't have stopped anything really lol

With all that said; one would think I would lean more towards Bitcoin is going to 0 or crash or bubble now with my theory. I still don't. At the end of the day, the crypto support will grow at an exponential rate with solid investors in tech, the first-time investors will continue to get weeded out & lose but will come back once again due to even higher fomo but smarter & wiser this time.. which creates an overall just more stable, more educated environment... which eventually (and I'm talking decades) will lead to a stable non-volatile coin (whether its Bitcoin or something else).

 

[James Fake]

Thanks for the great info guys. I have a few questions. Bitcoin dropped now to 9,487 as I am typing. Is it time to buy? Or should we wait to see if it dips even more? I was about to buy some last night when it was over 10k, but i heard it was going to dip so I didn't. Is right now the time, or will it go down more?

2- Do you guys who have experience suggest buying bitcoin, ETH, Litecoin, or something else all together? What is the best way to make use of this bubble?

Do you Bitcoin is a bubble? or do you think using crypto tech as a currency is a bubble? Because if the first happens, the smart ones will have adjusted or leveraged against it by diversity.

If the second; then if you truly believe this and still want to invest into coins; you'll find yourself making bad trading decisions purely because there are educated required moves (and non-moves lol) only a long-term investor would see, simply by being able to see the big picture; those who don't cannot see them coming. It's like playing basketball with one arm.. a really smart good trader takes a more neutral position and trades based off complete logic.

Ironically, you'll be much more likely to be caught in any bubble than a smart seasoned trader.

With that said; to answer your question:

If you're holding Long a couple years, it doesn't really matter when you buy. And depending on how Short you are trying to go; buy now and sell in a month. Or buy tomorrow at 6-7am and sell later that day or week.

 

[TKDTyler]

Do you Bitcoin is a bubble? or do you think using crypto tech as a currency is a bubble? Because if the first happens, the smart ones will have adjusted or leveraged against it by diversity.

Was speaking to one of my friend's mom and uncle who are looking to invest in the crypto space. It was interesting hearing their point of view:

They are interested in holding long term, but instead of investing heavily in the big 3, they want to invest in mostly alt-coins that are around $1 because "all it takes is one of them to go to $1000 and we are set!"

Reminds me of penny stock mentality... Sends off some red flags in my head.

I feel like we are shifting from trading crypto into trading against human emotion now. Much different ball game if you don't hold long term

 

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[melissa_summers]

I agree that it's hard to ignore when something starts to cost four times more, and various financial analysts say that this cryptocurrency will grow two times. Bitcoin and similar currencies can offer investment opportunities in the future, but these are nothing more than speculative rates that investors should fear or completely avoid. It's my opinion. Cryptocurrency forecasts are very attractive, however, the significant risk of losses is not compatible with reasonable investment for long-term purposes.

 

[Vigilante]

I agree that it's hard to ignore when something starts to cost four times more, and various financial analysts say that this cryptocurrency will grow two times. Bitcoin and similar currencies can offer investment opportunities in the future, but these are nothing more than speculative rates that investors should fear or completely avoid. It's my opinion. Cryptocurrency forecasts are very attractive, however, the significant risk of losses is not compatible with reasonable investment for long-term purposes.

Which investment would you suggest that has a chance for a high yield that is not speculative? What high yield investment doesn't have risk?

 

[Twopro]

Nice to see this forum embracing crypto. Hadn't been here in a while I should probably write an update thread on my progress and how things have been going. Been in crypto since late 2013 and my alts portfolio is at or near 7 figures now although some lack liquidity at the moment I have high hopes for all the coins I hold. At one point I had 140 Bitcoins but that was while BTC was hovering in the $3000-3500 range

 

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[mike24601]

LTC is still cheap and undervalued lol! Why doesn't anyone love us?

 

[Tom.V]

BTC sold. Catch you on the dip side

 

[MrYoshi]

Nice to see this forum embracing crypto. Hadn't been here in a while I should probably write an update thread on my progress and how things have been going. Been in crypto since late 2013 and my alts portfolio is at or near 7 figures now although some lack liquidity at the moment I have high hopes for all the coins I hold. At one point I had 140 Bitcoins but that was while BTC was hovering in the $3000-3500 range

Wow, that's awesome. Did you trade full time in order to achieve these results? Also, what are your thoughts on finding success within this space while working full time or running another business? I ask because I can't stop thinking about jumping in as a trader full time, but I also want to figure how to invest in alt-coins.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNF_amBSbBg


That guy above is beast and I've just started looking into crypto this week.

 

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[bringitnow28329]

Investing and trading are very different.

Wow, that's awesome. Did you trade full time in order to achieve these results? Also, what are your thoughts on finding success within this space while working full time or running another business? I ask because I can't stop thinking about jumping in as a trader full time, but I also want to figure how to invest in alt-coins.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNF_amBSbBg


That guy above is beast and I've just started looking into crypto this week.

 

[MrYoshi]

Investing and trading are very different.

I am truly a noob within this space, forgive me.

 

[Kingmaker]

LTC is still cheap and undervalued lol! Why doesn't anyone love us?

What's the long term value pitch on LTC? I don't quite get it.

Bitcoin is the "original", Ethereum is the "platform", LTC is ?
It seems like they are positioning themselves as "bitcoin for payments" but that seems to confusing to use a separate coin for payments, why not make Bitcoin faster and use one coin for value storage and payments (like Bitcoin Cash is trying to do). If it wasn't one of the "Big Three" on Coinbase it would just be considered one of the random alt coins, no?

 

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[Coalission]

Doesn't betting on Bitcoins going up in value violate the commandment of Control?

Bitcoin is not a business model. It's an asset, and people with extra money tend to prefer holding their money in assets that can at the very least outpace inflation, vs. sitting in a bank account in this:

In 2000 everybody was an expert in tech companies, your brother in law, your mother etc.
In 2007 strippers had 4 houses they were flipping.
In 2011 my taxi driver and my barber told me that they wanted to invest in Gold.

Today, not yet, but wait for it.

The concept is and will remain forever the same, it's just human nature, period.

And to this day tech companies, houses and gold have all held their value relatively well despite pullbacks. Like I said above, (smart) people with extra money like to find assets to hold their money vs. fiat.

 

[James Fake]

the significant risk of losses is not compatible with reasonable investment for long-term purposes.

Which investment would you suggest that has a chance for a high yield that is not speculative? What high yield investment doesn't have risk?

I agree @Vigilante. As MJ said earlier in another thread.. low downside, unlimited upside. Not many markets like this come around often in history.

It's like keeping your star QB on the bench. He might have a bad game or two but he's going to bring home the trophy. And yes, your star QB has a shelf life.. he can't football all his life. So you take those prime golden years and you & him make the best of it........ and then you trade him to the Jets.