Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[MJ DeMarco]

Break out of a one-year trend? Let's see how it goes.

Actually BTC has held up very well in the 19K range during the last month's slide... it was the only asset class that didn't fall further. I find that divergence intereting.

 

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[Antifragile]

Lukso is up too! If I sell now, I’ll have lost only half the value . I never thought I’d be one of the degens but here we are.

 

[MitchC]

Lukso is up too! If I sell now, I’ll have lost only half the value . I never thought I’d be one of the degens but here we are.

We must have bought at the same time

I’d be a lot richer if I had kept all cash and never “invested” in any of the coins and stocks I managed to pick

 

[Antifragile]

We must have bought at the same time

I’d be a lot richer if I had kept all cash and never “invested” in any of the coins and stocks I managed to pick

Probably. Look, the really great thing about it all is to learn lessons. I was gambling and called it “investing” because it was going up like crazy. I was a genius who mistook bull market for brains.

Lesson is this, both you and I are doing just fine because we have our businesses. That is true investing. And investing in ourselves. It’ll be valuable to remember that for the next waive of “the latest gold rush”.

 

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[MitchC]

Probably. Look, the really great thing about it all is to learn lessons. I was gambling and called it “investing” because it was going up like crazy. I was a genius who mistook bull market for brains.

Lesson is this, both you and I are doing just fine because we have our businesses. That is true investing. And investing in ourselves. It’ll be valuable to remember that for the next waive of “the latest gold rush”.

For sure. I definitely learned a lot of lessons that I was going to have to learn one way or another. Just glad I learned them now.

 

[robjohn]

We must have bought at the same time

I’d be a lot richer if I had kept all cash and never “invested” in any of the coins and stocks I managed to pick

I also bought Lukso at the same price point as you guys.
I'm not selling though. I might consider pulling out my initial investment if it doubles past my average though.
There'e also been talk that they might reduce max supply from current 100million to 35million.

 

[MitchC]

I also bought Lukso at the same price point as you guys.
I'm not selling though. I might consider pulling out my initial investment if it doubles past my average though.
There'e also been talk that they might reduce max supply from current 100million to 35million.

I’ll be holding too, it would be silly to hold this long and not at least hold it until the networks actually working and the next bull market comes

As much as I lost money it was gambling money anyway

 

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[Antifragile]

Until you sell, you didn’t lose or make any money.

Edit:

What's behind LUKSO's 56% pump over the past week?

Over the past week, the Ethereum-compatible LUKSO token has been the biggest gainer, up 56% to $7.51 as of press time. But what is behind this strong performance? What is LUKSO? As a small-cap token, ranked 230th by market cap, little is known about the project. The developers hope to change...

cryptoslate.com

 

[MitchC]

Until you sell, you didn’t lose or make any money.

Edit:

What's behind LUKSO's 56% pump over the past week?

Over the past week, the Ethereum-compatible LUKSO token has been the biggest gainer, up 56% to $7.51 as of press time. But what is behind this strong performance? What is LUKSO? As a small-cap token, ranked 230th by market cap, little is known about the project. The developers hope to change...

cryptoslate.com

To be honest I forgot I owned it until you posted

Also I had a thought, I think I would have lost more money if I bought property than I have buying crypto so it wasn’t the worst choice

 

[robjohn]

I’ll be holding too, it would be silly to hold this long and not at least hold it until the networks actually working and the next bull market comes

As much as I lost money it was gambling money anyway

Very true. Mainnet should cause a huge upward swing in price.
Even at the moment, its over $9 now!

 

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[Antifragile]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586768214557614080

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1586768214557614080

 

[Ing]

Exactly one Bitcoin Repeat Cycle ago the market crashed to 1/2 out of nothing. I m exited to see, if the same happens this time.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/cycle-repeat/

 

[MJ DeMarco]

U.S. Attorney Announces Historic $3.36 Billion Cryptocurrency Seizure And Conviction In Connection With Silk Road Dark Web Fraud

www.justice.gov

What a fascinating read.

 

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[Antifragile]

Over $344 Million Liquidated as Bitcoin, Ethereum Continue to Drop - Decrypt

It’s been a bearish day for cryptocurrencies as markets dropped nearly $48 billion in value ahead of the U.S. CPI report.

decrypt.co

 

[YanC]

Over $344 Million Liquidated as Bitcoin, Ethereum Continue to Drop - Decrypt

It’s been a bearish day for cryptocurrencies as markets dropped nearly $48 billion in value ahead of the U.S. CPI report.

decrypt.co

Not sure yesterday's sell off is related to either the midterms or CPI, several articles suggested that it happened because of a rumor that came out about FTX being insolvent.

 

[Ing]

Some days rumor about FTX being insolvent.
Yesterday Binance announced, that they will buy FTX.
That caused a short bump and than a dump.

This dump was to expect some time allready, but with the B buy FTX event it finally happened. (my interpretation)

Btw.: I made a short along that dump and made a plus of 400%! (75 $)

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

BTC has broken resistance which was well established in the 19000 range. It was pretty impressive it hung around there while the rest of the market trended own.

 

[farmer79]

To me Bitcoin has been such a disappointment. When this thread started I originally had the opinion Bitcoin was more or less a ponzi scheme going to 0. Partly due to this thread and James (original thread starter) I sort of became a mild crypto fan, although I have never owned a bitcoin or a bitcoin stock.

Forgetting about the wild speculative bubble, I really thought it would slowly increase in use as a currency. But as someone outside the industry,in this current environment, I would never own it and never recommend it to someone I care about. It’s just too risky, hacks, runs, fraud, market risk. I really thought it might be able to change the world but it sure doesn’t seem to have grown beyond a speculative instrument.

As a wakeup call for investors/speculators. It would be a good exercise to take say your parents (someone 60+) have them safely buy and store a single bitcoin and then purchase something that cost 2k-5k. I think that would be a long and frustrating ordeal.

 

[AceVentures]

Something fascinating just happened in the markets: CZ, the CEO of Binance, the largest centralized exchange by 10x, single-handedly erased his runner-up competitor FTX in 2 days.

Here's an overview of the story if you're curious about what happened:

TLDR: FTX had been growing it's business while leveraging it's own in-house printed FTT imaginary bean. CZ as an early investor had $2B worth of this shitcoin, and dumped his 2B while also simultaneously causing FUD in the markets. Effectively, there was a bank-run on FTT, which exposed FTX CEO's balance-sheet that can't cover it's debts.

The story is still developing.

Not making any market predictions, but who knows how much and of what assets FTX will be forced to liquidate to cover the debts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590029012000440320

View: https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1590029012000440320


EDIT: Here is more details for those that are equally fascinated by what just happened:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590099676744646656

View: https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1590099676744646656?s=20&t=8MAyI07WT5sUbC-1ZMjWnQ

 

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[AceVentures]

This might be too early to tell, but with withdrawals halted and lopsided books, if you held anything on FTX there is a high probability it is gone for good.

Although I never held funds in FTX, I used it as an off-ramp and recommended it to many friends. Even on here.

I feel awful for anyone that got burnt by this. I don't think faith in "web3" will be restored anytime soon.

Ironically, this collapse highlights the need for decentralized transparent systems.

 

[Speculatooor]

Crypto com will be the next blowup.

Their business model is a ponzi scheme, where a user must purchase CRO to use the debit card (new entrant buy-in). These funds are locked for months, paying out the older stakers.

They spent a billion dollars in marketing to get more entrants. Now they are laying off employees. They cut a lot of card benefits. They actually put a transaction fee recently. They sold their stadium licensing. Stopped USDC/USDT withdrawals. Unraveling of the scheme.

Mark my words.

 

[GPM]

Crypto com will be the next blowup.

Their business model is a ponzi scheme, where a user must purchase CRO to use the debit card (new entrant buy-in).

Mark my words.

I have a very small bit of CRO to have something staking and to use their CC. Turns out their CC doesnt even exist in Canada, and they are holding my CRO (and it isnt staking) anyways. So yea, I am not impressed. All they did was essentially hold my CRO for 6 months and I get 0 out of the deal.

Their app is also 100% pure trash. 100. Percent. Pure. Trash.

 

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[Speculatooor]

I have a very small bit of CRO to have something staking and to use their CC. Turns out their CC doesnt even exist in Canada, and they are holding my CRO (and it isnt staking) anyways. So yea, I am not impressed. All they did was essentially hold my CRO for 6 months and I get 0 out of the deal.

Their app is also 100% pure trash. 100. Percent. Pure. Trash.

Get everything out of there ASAP

 

[Bekit]

Thanks for the helpful recap. I didn't know that was what went down.

Something fascinating just happened in the markets: CZ, the CEO of Binance, the largest centralized exchange by 10x, single-handedly erased his runner-up competitor FTX in 2 days.

Here's an overview of the story if you're curious about what happened:

TLDR: FTX had been growing it's business while leveraging it's own in-house printed FTT imaginary bean. CZ as an early investor had $2B worth of this shitcoin, and dumped his 2B while also simultaneously causing FUD in the markets. Effectively, there was a bank-run on FTT, which exposed FTX CEO's balance-sheet that can't cover it's debts.

The story is still developing.

Not making any market predictions, but who knows how much and of what assets FTX will be forced to liquidate to cover the debts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590029012000440320

View: https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1590029012000440320


EDIT: Here is more details for those that are equally fascinated by what just happened:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590099676744646656

View: https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1590099676744646656?s=20&t=8MAyI07WT5sUbC-1ZMjWnQ

This might be too early to tell, but with withdrawals halted and lopsided books, if you held anything on FTX there is a high probability it is gone for good.

Although I never held funds in FTX, I used it as an off-ramp and recommended it to many friends. Even on here.

I feel awful for anyone that got burnt by this. I don't think faith in "web3" will be restored anytime soon.

Ironically, this collapse highlights the need for decentralized transparent systems.

Regarding faith in "web3" - my current opinion is this:

- Web3 is still an inevitable development. It's coming whether we have faith in it or not.
- You think it's hard to "de-Google" your life now? It'll be even harder to "de-web3-ify" your life pretty soon.
- However, what I now have immense cynicism about is that it'll ever be decentralized. Unless there's some kind of gallant and steely revolution that rises up, I think the idea is basically dead that Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency or blockchain technology will operate on a decentralized model. Instead, it'll all be under the rule of a centralized power. It doesn't make me happy to see this coming, but it seems inevitable at this point.
- In 2020, I could see Bitcoin as the next potential global reserve currency. I've now changed my opinion on that. When the dollar loses its status, it'll certainly be a digital currency that we move to, but I have very little hope that it'll be a decentralized one.
- I'm making my bets accordingly.

 

[GPM]

In 2020, I could see Bitcoin as the next potential global reserve currency. I've now changed my opinion on that. When the dollar loses its status, it'll certainly be a digital currency that we move to, but I have very little hope that it'll be a decentralized one.
- I'm making my bets accordingly.

Go look up some "conspiracy theory" stuff on how the recent changes to Ethereum is playing right into the hands of essentially becoming government controlled and a centralized digital currency. Awfully convenient that if you were to create a roadmap for what needed to be done for government takeover and centralization, they are doing pretty much those exact steps.

The USA and Canada are both already working on that digital currency. USD and CAD are going the way of the dinosaur, and the next version will probably be some sort of a central bank controlled digital currency. That is the way it is heading. Nice and easy to tie that together with a social credit score, and tie that into your passport and travel documents. Canada is already doing trials of all this in the name of "making your life easier and travel more convenient". I think it is starting in Toronto.

So yea... I don't like the way things are heading, and the average Joe is the one who is going to lose out most when all this comes to fruition.

Imagine if our currency goes full Central Bank digital? Won't that be fun! Selling some cookies at a bake sale? Accepting some money for your 4 year old's baby shoes at a garage sale? Just have them scan their digital ID on your phone app to transfer the funds, and don't worry about the taxes, those can all come out automatically to make sure your loving overlords get their cut!

 

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[Bekit]

Go look up some "conspiracy theory" stuff on how the recent changes to Ethereum is playing right into the hands of essentially becoming government controlled and a centralized digital currency. Awfully convenient that if you were to create a roadmap for what needed to be done for government takeover and centralization, they are doing pretty much those exact steps.

The USA and Canada are both already working on that digital currency. USD and CAD are going the way of the dinosaur, and the next version will probably be some sort of a central bank controlled digital currency. That is the way it is heading. Nice and easy to tie that together with a social credit score, and tie that into your passport and travel documents. Canada is already doing trials of all this in the name of "making your life easier and travel more convenient". I think it is starting in Toronto.

So yea... I don't like the way things are heading, and the average Joe is the one who is going to lose out most when all this comes to fruition.

Imagine if our currency goes full Central Bank digital? Won't that be fun! Selling some cookies at a bake sale? Accepting some money for your 4 year old's baby shoes at a garage sale? Just have them scan their digital ID on your phone app to transfer the funds, and don't worry about the taxes, those can all come out automatically to make sure your loving overlords get their cut!

I don't think it's a conspiracy theory, but I do think that enough people will be sleepy and indifferent and unaware of the implications for long enough for the shackles to be forged and the padlocks to be snapped shut.

People will wake up and protest only after it's too late.

It seems like we're at a stage where it's early enough where there would still be a chance to take the other fork in the road... but only if the masses of people are awakened and activated to care enough about it to take action and insist on decentralization and freedom.

And given the current trends in society, I just don't see people waking up soon enough.

 

[Speculatooor]

I believe Ethereum and a lot of other PoS coins have a big flaw in their security design and are destined to fail at some point.

When your security is denominated in your own coin as a stake, the value of that coin is directly corrolated to the security of the network.

This gives PoS coins a risk of a speculative attack to capture the network.

E.g. if ETH were to be manipulated to $1 -> you could be a validator for $32 (you need 32 ETH to be one). You literally put the security of the network in the hands of the markets.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Imagine the situation, where headlines say 'US GOVERNMENT ATTACKING ETHEREUM'
The value of the coin plummets because people panic.

You have 2 options:
1) hold your coins and possibly lose all your money when the protocol can potentially become worthless
2) sell your coins and potentially buy back lower if the protocol survives
--> people choose 2

Insert downward spiral in the price of the coin.

US GOV can thus attack a PoS protocol by attacking it, lowering its coin value, then buying extremely large (permanent) stake.

They can print as much US dollars as they want to buy the stake as well, since they own the USD money printer.

Mission succesfull, you now have captured the protocol. The deflationary tokenomics increase your influence even more.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

As I've been saying for YEARS on here as the crypto fan boys were running charts and technical analysis, crypto's decentralized nature was a threat to world powers. And anything a threat to world power is squashed, and then co-opted for their own control purposes. This is why I never bought in and kept my investments in it minimized, not to mention, I didn't fully understand it.

While these problems appear to be rooted in typical human behavior and corruption, it gives the centralizing authorities more power (and political capital) to reign in control. And now the world powers realize that crypto is a perfect digital control mechanism to usher in a cashless society, a society that can be economically controlled to the indivisual. What better form of "Cancel Culture" is there than to cancel someone's ability to engage in commerce?

 

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[Antifragile]

• we are going to be 100% cashless society. And we are very close in NA already. We tap our phone(!) when paying for coffee/breakfast and groceries. We never buy clothes or cars with cash.
• We are already in a digital currently world. And your government has 100 different ways to get paid. Try not paying your taxes this year and watch what happens. Yes, your local bank account already reports everything to the tax man.
• There will never be a mass adopted fully decentralized currency (yup, even Bitcoin). Just like MJ points out, it just won’t be allowed by the biggest and most powerful. Power comes from control.
• The above doesn’t mean Crypro and Bitcoin is dead. Quite the opposite. Bitcoin will always have its place on the fringes.
• Other than control, I trust the authorities to do one thing well - that’s to waste a lot of resources and still fail to bring any project on time or on budget. They won’t deliver anything compelling. So plugging it bro existing projects is a legitimate way to get it done.
• Web3 is here. It’s evolving and blockchain applications will continue to grow and get better.

Just my thoughts…

 

[Ing]

Exactly one Bitcoin Repeat Cycle ago the market crashed to 1/2 out of nothing. I m exited to see, if the same happens this time.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/cycle-repeat/

When I read the crypto related threads, meanings , news, I see, that the valley of the crypto bear market is near. I love it!