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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Sethamus

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Just a little shake out, not too worried yet. Been watching reports of TA’s that has been mentioning 42k level for over 2 weeks now, I guess it took Elon’s tweets to make it happen. On the next bounce up if it doesn’t hold then I’ll worry. Some alts are still getting all time highs as well, so not everything is following btc price.
 

Ocean Man

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You guys doing ok?

Been a crap week for everything, but crypto has really taken a hit.

Hope everyone’s good.
Not too worried, I guess the only folks who're worried are those who are over-leveraged or lost money that they needed ASAP (In that case they shouldn't had invested that much).

I'm not playing the short-game so I'm not too worried if it goes red for a few months/years. Actually accumulating, haha.
 

Antifragile

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Not too worried, I guess the only folks who're worried are those who are over-leveraged or lost money that they needed ASAP (In that case they shouldn't had invested that much).

I'm not playing the short-game so I'm not too worried if it goes red for a few months/years. Actually accumulating, haha.

while I’m in the same boat as you, and with a 10 year horizon as opposed to 10 weeks or 10 months, it still sucks to see any downside pressure on crypto. Main reason is that with wider adoption and higher values we’ll see more innovative solutions to existing problems. Defi is just baby steps. So much more to look forward to.

Hopefully everyone on this forum is disciplined in their decisions and isn’t suffering undue pressure to sell.

Chin up!
 

GPM

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Seems to be a bit of interest in mining, I've gotten a fair number of PM's. That will be forthcoming, I'm busy as heck right now with a few things.

And yes, these guys who brag about their numbers are cherry picking the data big time. Every now and then I text @Kak a picture of my earnings to bust his balls. Completely cherry picked data...

For instance about a week ago I was literally earning 3x what I am today, maybe more. So these pages give you your "monthly" and "yearly" income based on like an hour of mining stats.

A week ago during that insane peak 1GH of ethereum mining rate would have "earned" something like $135,000/year. Today that same hashrate will "earn" closer to $35,000 a year. So yea, don't trust these clowns when they tell you how much money they make.

YouTube exploded with guys bragging about all these huge numbers they are getting last week. It's all just show for views. There are very few YouTubers involved in the crypto space that I trust. And then there are the websites with just complete BS pages about how to optimize for mining. It's all crap they know nothing about that they want page views on.
 

Ing

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My son built his eth rig 2 month ago with about 11k. As he had to get the money back, hi sold the eth. So he earned about 4k.
He had to buy the Gpus at about 2x stock price.
But I think that Roi is ok. GPU prizes have doubled since than.
 

Timmy C

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My son built his eth rig 2 month ago with about 11k. As he had to get the money back, hi sold the eth. So he earned about 4k.
He had to buy the Gpus at about 2x stock price.
But I think that Roi is ok. GPU prizes have doubled since than.
Wouldn't he have just been better off buying Eth?
 

GPM

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My son built his eth rig 2 month ago with about 11k. As he had to get the money back, hi sold the eth. So he earned about 4k.
He had to buy the Gpus at about 2x stock price.
But I think that Roi is ok. GPU prizes have doubled since than.
2x MSRP is a scary proposition. So based on that math he needs at least 4 more high flying months to pay off his equipment? Do you really think the mining party is going to last this long? Personally I avoid those scalper prices at all costs. The only scalped equipment I have purchased is a few 3090s for the equivalent of 2 weeks mining profit to pay the scalper fee. I can handle 2 weeks.

Guys are now asking for 3-5 months worth of "scalper fees". Then after those months you get to pay your card off. No thanks. I don't want to get stuck holding the bag on that when profits get back to normal.
 

Ing

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2x MSRP is a scary proposition. So based on that math he needs at least 4 more high flying months to pay off his equipment? Do you really think the mining party is going to last this long? Personally I avoid those scalper prices at all costs. The only scalped equipment I have purchased is a few 3090s for the equivalent of 2 weeks mining profit to pay the scalper fee. I can handle 2 weeks.

Guys are now asking for 3-5 months worth of "scalper fees". Then after those months you get to pay your card off. No thanks. I don't want to get stuck holding the bag on that when profits get back to normal.
I overthink the EV :
payed-11k
back +4k
so he s in with remaining 7k
worst case : crypto is dead; eth s worth =0; noone will buy any GPU, he will end with a loss of 7k.

-7k

best case : he will get another eth till rev halvens. Than he gets about 5 eth a year. In 3 years ETH will hit 10k in worth and his 15 ETH will sell for 150k.

+150k

lets assume, the propabillity of two possibilities are the same 50:50 ( meanwhile I believe in the value and the circles of cryptos, so I think the second one will have 70% or more)

so
- 0,5 x 7k
+0,5 x 150k
EV= +71,5k

What do you think about that?
 

Sethamus

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If I mine I am not sure I’ll even worry about paying off the cards in the short term(if I was mining a large cap alt coin). If I’m mining projects I know nothing about for pure profit, then I assume I buy into a few large cap coins to hold and also pay down some of the initial cost.

I will be looking at this for the long term, so if I was @MitchC and didn’t need my 7k back right away I’d just mine those coins to hold. I don’t understand the mining market fully yet so my original thoughts could be wrong. As an investment $10k in stocks I’m not selling in March 2020 unless I hopefully had a stop loss set in Feb. If I had 1-2 Eth now I’m not selling unless the same stop loss hits after the end of this bull run, only to then pay myself back or buy cheaper coins to hold.
 

nitrousflame

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Mining hardware goes through premium/discount cycles just like the token prices. I rebuilt my PC a couple years ago and picked up an used card for $250. That same card today is going for about $500 used. It's currently earning me about $100/mo, but I merely look at it as a way to help offset my gas costs, haha.
 

Frinys

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I overthink the EV :
payed-11k
back +4k
so he s in with remaining 7k
worst case : crypto is dead; eth s worth =0; noone will buy any GPU, he will end with a loss of 7k.

-7k

best case : he will get another eth till rev halvens. Than he gets about 5 eth a year. In 3 years ETH will hit 10k in worth and his 15 ETH will sell for 150k.

+150k

lets assume, the propabillity of two possibilities are the same 50:50 ( meanwhile I believe in the value and the circles of cryptos, so I think the second one will have 70% or more)

so
- 0,5 x 7k
+0,5 x 150k
EV= +71,5k

What do you think about that?
Remember to split your electricity bill with your son (assuming that the rig is in your house). He may have earned much less than 4K, he's just not the one paying the bill. :)

Which, by the way, all kids out there: If you want a way to get more pocket money and live with your parents, start mining! You will get the coins, dad will get the bill! It's genius. :D
 

AceVentures

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Finding a pattern here.

Third world countries open up massive amounts of liquidity that was previously locked inside a weak banking infrastructure to enter into crypto. Not surprising also because many of these third world countries had already trained their population to transact using mobile payment solutions, so the shift to dApps especially on mobile brings huge numbers of users.

Projects like Polygon and Fantom are examples that come to mind - despite what the story tells, the teams that run these projects are relentless and their teams are securing all kinds of business deals both regionally and internationally.

Growing a trusted brand in a marketplace that needs it most -->

Think what RSR did in Venezuela
Think what AXIE infinity did in Philippines
Think what Polygon is doing in India
Think what Fantom is doing across the middle-east
Even Cardano is reaching out in Africa and doing deals with Ethiopia

These are examples and I'm not advocating for any of them - just pointing out that when these guys open up the floodgates within countries that are more f*cked than first world countries, they can swallow up liquidity easier than countries like the states that offer a wider range of financial products with strong fintech rails for growing participation.
 

Mainstream7

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DeFi will become a means of funding future scientists and innovators, because it aggregates capital and releases it to people, who can in turn act on their own projects, thus creating a reinforcement and offspring of new innovative solutions for the difficult problems humanity face today. Money that is withhold by banks and centralized structures will eventually disappear.
Smart people are drawn to DeFi instead of Google, Amazon or Facebook, where most of their potential is lost. They will change society from within by starting off with small innovative solutions and in time will replace the legacy system. Most of the funding will happen decentralized as well. This is a return to science and philosophy, away from consumerism. I also expect a spiritual revolution, that goes hand in hand with it.
 
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Antifragile

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Fastlaners. You heard it here first. I’m calling this the bottom of this BTC pricing, namely 40k to 43k range. Might dip a tad below briefly, but bottom out at these prices.
And it’s suspicious that all the FUD came out all in the same week. My speculation is that someone is about to benefit from it.
And I repeat, anyone taking financial advice from an internet stranger, consult your doctor first. I don’t know anything about anything. My crystal ball tells me this is the bottom. Why? Being contrarian, fear on the BTC pricing is high, that usually happens when it’s bottom. Right?
Time for a glass of wine. Thanks.
 
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Timmy C

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Inject the FUD straight into my bloodstream.
Drive it in without any lube at all.
Capitulation is everywhere on the internet haha.
 
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So annoying that dips happen in the second part of the month when all I have left is money for food
 

GPM

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Well this I getting freaky, I am not gonna lie.

Why does this always happen towards the end of the month when I am going to sell some? I should be taking profits at the start of the month I guess.
 

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