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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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GPM

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Yes it is higher, and 0% of me thinks we are in for a major correction right now. However, I do think it is coming.

Nothing goes exponential and parabolic like this and just stays up there. Sure it could happen, but I highly highly doubt it. Having said that, even if it does correct 90% (after rising further from where it is now), it's still going to be higher than it was a few years prior.

Strap in folks. You know how we look back like 4-5 years and say "holy crap look at how cheap all this was!", Expect us to be doing the same thing 4 years out from now.
 

Antifragile

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Yes it is higher, and 0% of me thinks we are in for a major correction right now. However, I do think it is coming.

Nothing goes exponential and parabolic like this and just stays up there. Sure it could happen, but I highly highly doubt it. Having said that, even if it does correct 90% (after rising further from where it is now), it's still going to be higher than it was a few years prior.

Strap in folks. You know how we look back like 4-5 years and say "holy crap look at how cheap all this was!", Expect us to be doing the same thing 4 years out from now.

100% agree. There is always a correction at some point, for any asset class. Markets are cyclical.

We humans are emotional creatures. Our emotions drive our decisions and we are rarely in a balanced state. Seeing large gains on GameStop, we want to join the Reddit group. Seeing Tesla stock go up, we fear missing out and want to invest. After all, Elon Musk will take Tesla stock to the moon in a SpaceX rocket, right?

We are usually either euphoric or depressed about the future. This is what causes market cycles that swing from “underpriced” to “overpriced”, seldom pausing in the middle. Worst of all, in finance, history counts for so little.

Within a decade the last correction is all but forgotten and we are distracted anew by a swing in the pendulum. The South Sea Company bubble burst in 1720, over 300 years ago, yet there is no shortage of recent examples:

– Real estate of the 1990s.

– Long Term Capital in 1998.

– Dotcom in the 2000s.

– Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Where are we in the current market cycle?

Market cycles cause profit cycles. Profit cycles cause availability of credit. And availability of credit drives the economy up or down.

What’s fascinating is trying to determine where we are in the cycle right now. Are we starting a post-pandemic prosperity cycle – a repeat of The Roaring ’20s” Are we at the tail end of a long bull market on the cusp of a correction? Or are we somewhere in the middle?

Looking at history we cannot find a time exactly like today.

But, as Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Vaccines are here and with that comes optimism.

Consensus among top minds is that GDP will grow at a record pace. Growth and productivity will work to control inflation and life will be great again – much like the roaring ’20s.

On the other hand, we’re still in a pandemic with business capacity constrained and rising prices. Governments have printed trillions in their currencies in the last 12 months and inflation is a real risk. In fact, it is likely already here and not "transitory". If central banks increase rates to control inflation, what will it do to the economy?

Predicting the future​

So, can we predict the future? As it turns out, no. There are only two types of forecasters – those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.

The best we can do is to act according to the odds of being less wrong. One could write books on the subject of how to do that.

But if there was a formula that predicted market cycles, there would be no market cycles. Investors would never pay more or less for an asset than that formula’s value. By removing emotion and personal belief about the future we would never get a “deal” or overpay.

The method to get the odds on your side​

Ask yourself:

– Is the economy booming or sluggish?

Are the lenders generous on terms or stingy?

– Is the availability of credit abundant or tight?

– Are the interest rates low or high?

– Is the number of sellers few or many?

– Are the prices for assets high or low?

– Is the return-on-investment low or high?

The more left-hand-side words you choose as answers, like ‘booming’, ‘generous’ and abundant’, the more cautious you should be.

During the start of the pandemic the optimism was low, lockdowns everywhere etc. This was the best time to buy into crypto (BTH/ETH).

I remain optimistic on crypto today and I am confident a correction will come and it won't be pretty.
 

AceVentures

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Who would you recommend following on twitter AceVentures ? Since that is where you get your DeFi info. I'm thinking that in this crypto gold rush, the way of selling shovels would be to sell and share good info on this new tech, but got to become an expert first.

The best way to come up to speed with the story is to identify the people that have stake in the game and to follow the story from their vantage point.

Tokens - you can study their main twitter page. Follow their developers and founders (for example someone like @Bantg who's shaping the Yearn Finance protocol). Follow their core community managers and the ideals that hold the community.

Follow the github pages and governance boards to see what's being proposed, what's on the agenda, what's been approved and about to change the protocol (this is quite possibly the juiciest alpha on the market). For example I was studying the Kyber Network governance boards and identified a new proposal to inflate tokens by minting 20% of to current supply to then be paid out in the form of incentives to new liquidity providers - I recognized this as potentially troubling as it sets a precedent that the DAO can change the supply and I managed my investment accordingly.

Thought leaders - people both inside and outside of tech/blockchain. People like @Balajis comes to mind here - but prominent thought leaders across different industries provide philosophies and fundamentals that hold the story together. It helps to be able to see the narrative from their perspective.

The beauty in this space is that the pace of innovation is faster than anybody can keep up with individually. Anybody could study up and understand a new application of these Lego-pieces and place a bet to capitalize on the alignment of incentive structures. Legacy investors are struggling to keep up with what's valuable because they can't easily pinpoint the value propositions and project economics the way they're used to. This creates a profound opportunity for anybody with access to internet to connect the dots before big money does.
 

AceVentures

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Thoughts? I expect @AceVentures will have an intricate explanation on utility.

One of the reasons I think people underestimate the potential of crypto is because they look at it from a fundamentally different perspective.

They think BTC is trying to be a currency. They think ETH is trying to be a currency. They think the store of value or bet against inflation is where it ends. They look at historic behavior to predict future behavior. All of which are thoughts that take place inside an outdated framework of thinking. A paradigm change by definitions should be such because a majority fails to see that perspective at first.

DeFi is changing very rapidly. AMM's rudimentary curves like x*y=k that hold the swap curve are outdated and more efficient methodologies are rapidly being introduced. Now we're getting to a stage of DeFi 2.0 where capital efficiency and cashflow really matter. Not just about token economics and user incentives but real uses solving problems. For example, providing liquidity across a global marketplace is a huge deal - the next few months you will see more and more protocols emerge as powerhouses for people to put their capital to work.

When you stop thinking about it as speculation about the price of a currency and think about it as programmable money-blocks, the faster you can start to imagine what problems they solve. For example LP-ing as well as lending is as fastlane as it gets for people to earn passive income by providing liquidity. Everybody else that isn't getting good use out of their money can start providing it on a global marketplace - set and just their risk parameters and offer capital to anybody on their own terms.

You don't need to speculate on cryptocurrencies in order to participate in the crypto economy. Keep your dollars, keep your pesos, cryptotechnology enables you to wrap your assets and engage them in a global marketplace where capital is becoming exponentially more efficient.

This is imo why this bullrun is different. The price of ETH won't be rising because people are speculating on it's price going up (although most at first will be), it will be because ETH the network provides cashflow to it's validators who cooperate to maintain a public ledger of truth upon which anybody can settle disputes. ETH the network pays dividends to it's validators in the form of a tax on each transaction fee. Settlement volume can be used as a proxy to estimate revenue from the protocol.

People can transact in USD and Pesos and GovernmentSpyCoins and whatever they want. Their stock market could settle on ETH. Companies and organizations could be settling affairs using smart-contracts. Their real world assets could settle on ETH. They could be using ETH and not even knowing it - because they don't need to be stakeholders in ETH the network in order to engage with services and products that route and settle on ETH. Relay Networks could soon manage people's TX fees and make the Web3.0 experience as seamless as the current Web2.0 experience. This is not years away but months.
 

Antifragile

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This is imo why this bullrun is different. The price of ETH won't be rising because people are speculating on it's price going up (although most at first will be), it will be because ETH the network provides cashflow to it's validators who cooperate to maintain a public ledger of truth upon which anybody can settle disputes.

The scariest four words in investing "this time is different".

I agree with everything you said @AceVentures with one clarification: as long as you are right and the majority of investors in Cryto treat is as "currency only" and are oblivious to the future value you just described, your statement holds.

But assuming that most people are oblivious could be a mistake. And if that's the case, then the price of BTC/ETH will already reflect these value items. Which naturally will lead to an eventual euphoria and overpricing, causing a correction. In short, this time not that different.
 

AceVentures

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The scariest four words in investing "this time is different".

I agree with everything you said @AceVentures with one clarification: as long as you are right and the majority of investors in Cryto treat is as "currency only" and are oblivious to the future value you just described, your statement holds.

But assuming that most people are oblivious could be a mistake. And if that's the case, then the price of BTC/ETH will already reflect these value items. Which naturally will lead to an eventual euphoria and overpricing, causing a correction. In short, this time not that different.

If you think DeFi is baked into the price - you're asking too much from people that are still looking at BTC and thinking it's for criminals and Chinese coal factories.

Only 2M people have used Uniswap. How many have tried borrowing/lending applications? How many have used advanced algorithmic stablecoins? How many are exploring LP options and earnings potentials? How many have gotten an insurance cover on their staked asset? How big is the market for better banking?

I'm not assuming I'm the first to figure this out - but I'm certainly not the last. In my estimation the hoard is still behind the curve talking about BTC vs inflation.

This just came in...


I think most are underestimating DeFi by 1-2 orders of magnitude
 
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Mainstream7

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It's fine. I will go by foot. I think bicycles have no value.
 

Ing

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I just about built a rig for it as I had some components come in that I didn't want. Rather than sell them I could throw it into a chia rig. I never did it, but it is something I might consider again once mining pools open up for it.

How about you?
I checked too late. We just built one , but not sure, if there is anything left to get.

Get some 3080/3090...
 
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Ing

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Yes it is higher, and 0% of me thinks we are in for a major correction right now. However, I do think it is coming.

Nothing goes exponential and parabolic like this and just stays up there. Sure it could happen, but I highly highly doubt it. Having said that, even if it does correct 90% (after rising further from where it is now), it's still going to be higher than it was a few years prior.

Strap in folks. You know how we look back like 4-5 years and say "holy crap look at how cheap all this was!", Expect us to be doing the same thing 4 years out from now.
After every hype, ETH was left at x10 and in thenext hype it rose again.
When history repeats, it will stay at about 1500 again and 2 years later it rises again at 50000.
And every other crypto will follow.
That time I will know what to do
 

BooBoosHelix

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I need some cheering :(

had 700k matic and 2000bnb which I hold for ages (even tax free in my country after 1 year hodl ) Sold it all before it blew up and now Iam sad asf. Could be a legit two times millionaire now :( now Iam far from even a quarter million. Should have just hodled. f*cking paper hands
 
D

Deleted78083

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I need some cheering :(

had 700k matic and 2000bnb which I hold for ages (even tax free in my country after 1 year hodl ) Sold it all before it blew up and now Iam sad asf. Could be a legit two times millionaire now :( now Iam far from even a quarter million. Should have just hodled. f*cking paper hands

Sometimes, reading other people's misfortune will make you feel less lonely.

GOLD! - What Are the Dumbest Financial Decisions You Have Ever Made?

Some people owned thousands of btc.....
 

GPM

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Learn from your missed gain and move on. Get back in when you see fit. In 5 years where do you want to be? Looking back and sad at why you missed, but happy you did something about it and got back in? Or pissed that you missed the boat again, and lost out prior to that.

I could have close to a million cash value now if I had played my cards right and not sold or traded, same goes for a lot of guys in this thread.
 

Timmy C

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So this is just a quick recap.

Elon Fuds, institutions coordinating lots of FUD so they can buy for a lower price and liquidate leveraged long positions.

Elon pumps doge to get a cheaper entry on BTC. Now....over 19,000 Bitcoin moved onto exchanges before Elon started to tweet FUD, what a coincidence! it's almost as if someone had inside info and seen an opportunity to get more cheap coins.

If you don't understand what is happening, the next few years are going to be extremely painful for you.

elon tweet.jpg
 

Ocean Man

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So this is just a quick recap.

Elon Fuds, institutions coordinating lots of FUD so they can buy for a lower price and liquidate leveraged long positions.

Elon pumps doge to get a cheaper entry on BTC. Now....over 19,000 Bitcoin moved onto exchanges before Elon started to tweet FUD, what a coincidence! it's almost as if someone had inside info and seen an opportunity to get more cheap coins.

If you don't understand what is happening, the next few years are going to be extremely painful for you.

View attachment 38006
Can you ELI5? What you're saying is they're creating FUD to lower the prices so that they can stock up on them for the long-term right?
 

Ocean Man

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Question when it comes to sizable gains (million plus) in crypto.

Playing an exit-route scenario in my head, if I'd like to exit in the millions I would
1.) Transfer my funds from the hardware wallet to an exchange.
2.) Use the exchange's OTC to sell.
3.) I would now hypothetically either have millions in the exchange account or a direct bank deposit.

I'm wondering what do people do at this point? Keep millions in stable coin or ..? Trying to learn about exit plans.

This is a hypothetical situation.
 

Timmy C

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Can you ELI5? What you're saying is they're creating FUD to lower the prices so that they can stock up on them for the long-term right?


What they do with their coins isn't as important as the mental game that these psychopaths play on the average joe retail investor to get more coins for them and less/none for you.

Some will Hodl all, some will sell most, but the long-term game over the next few years will be stories of FUD from all of the big players to get you to sell so they can buy more, they will sell to get hold of ore coins by manipulating the market, it's already happening. I mean, you can see there wallets on the blockchain, so it's hard for them to pull the wool over your eyes and lie when you can track their wallets and see that what they do doesn't match what they say.

The war on coins over the next few years will land many average joe retail investors in mental institutions.
These big dogs are pure evil in my eyes, maybe a bit bitter that they where the last to the party on crypto and retail was first for a change.
 

Ocean Man

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What they do with their coins isn't as important as the mental game that these psychopaths play on the average joe retail investor to get more coins for them and less/none for you.

Some will Hodl all, some will sell most, but the long-term game over the next few years will be stories of FUD from all of the big players to get you to sell so they can buy more, they will sell to get hold of ore coins by manipulating the market, it's already happening. I mean, you can see there wallets on the blockchain, so it's hard for them to pull the wool over your eyes and lie when you can track their wallets and see that what they do doesn't match what they say.

The war on coins over the next few years will land many average joe retail investors in mental institutions.
These big dogs are pure evil in my eyes, maybe a bit bitter that they where the last to the party on crypto and retail was first for a change.
That's F'd up... Thanks for the ELI5.
 

ZF Lee

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What they do with their coins isn't as important as the mental game that these psychopaths play on the average joe retail investor to get more coins for them and less/none for you.

Some will Hodl all, some will sell most, but the long-term game over the next few years will be stories of FUD from all of the big players to get you to sell so they can buy more, they will sell to get hold of ore coins by manipulating the market, it's already happening. I mean, you can see there wallets on the blockchain, so it's hard for them to pull the wool over your eyes and lie when you can track their wallets and see that what they do doesn't match what they say.

The war on coins over the next few years will land many average joe retail investors in mental institutions.
These big dogs are pure evil in my eyes, maybe a bit bitter that they where the last to the party on crypto and retail was first for a change.
Yup...pretty much like what smart-money does with stocks.

Build up quietly on accumulation, sell down for cheap tickets, use news (eg Elon's Tweet) to justify selldowns or whatever.

I think many retail investors are already landed in mental institutions now...the last few months, I watched folks on forums get cut down bad. From tech boom, to shuttered recovery stock trends, inflation fears...

I found myself paying more attention to the TA or Volume Spread Analysis than fundamentals, which made me worry whether I was still doing stock investing or trading...
 

Timmy C

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One of the reasons I think people underestimate the potential of crypto is because they look at it from a fundamentally different perspective.

They think BTC is trying to be a currency. They think ETH is trying to be a currency. They think the store of value or bet against inflation is where it ends. They look at historic behavior to predict future behavior. All of which are thoughts that take place inside an outdated framework of thinking. A paradigm change by definitions should be such because a majority fails to see that perspective at first.

DeFi is changing very rapidly. AMM's rudimentary curves like x*y=k that hold the swap curve are outdated and more efficient methodologies are rapidly being introduced. Now we're getting to a stage of DeFi 2.0 where capital efficiency and cashflow really matter. Not just about token economics and user incentives but real uses solving problems. For example, providing liquidity across a global marketplace is a huge deal - the next few months you will see more and more protocols emerge as powerhouses for people to put their capital to work.

When you stop thinking about it as speculation about the price of a currency and think about it as programmable money-blocks, the faster you can start to imagine what problems they solve. For example LP-ing as well as lending is as fastlane as it gets for people to earn passive income by providing liquidity. Everybody else that isn't getting good use out of their money can start providing it on a global marketplace - set and just their risk parameters and offer capital to anybody on their own terms.

You don't need to speculate on cryptocurrencies in order to participate in the crypto economy. Keep your dollars, keep your pesos, cryptotechnology enables you to wrap your assets and engage them in a global marketplace where capital is becoming exponentially more efficient.

This is imo why this bullrun is different. The price of ETH won't be rising because people are speculating on it's price going up (although most at first will be), it will be because ETH the network provides cashflow to it's validators who cooperate to maintain a public ledger of truth upon which anybody can settle disputes. ETH the network pays dividends to it's validators in the form of a tax on each transaction fee. Settlement volume can be used as a proxy to estimate revenue from the protocol.

People can transact in USD and Pesos and GovernmentSpyCoins and whatever they want. Their stock market could settle on ETH. Companies and organizations could be settling affairs using smart-contracts. Their real world assets could settle on ETH. They could be using ETH and not even knowing it - because they don't need to be stakeholders in ETH the network in order to engage with services and products that route and settle on ETH. Relay Networks could soon manage people's TX fees and make the Web3.0 experience as seamless as the current Web2.0 experience. This is not years away but months.

I know it's exciting man, and we are bullish on cryptocurrencies like ETH & BTC, but this deterministic thinking rarely serves you well investing. This isn't different, I mean the tech has gone a long way for sure, no denying that part, but this is another market and a highly speculative one even to this day.

This is yet another crypto bubble cycle rinsing and repeating like every other one before it.
 

MitchC

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ASIC or gpu?

GPU

8x rx 580 8gb cards which is 245mh

he has 2 rigs I might buy both not sure so 16 cards total.

not really sure what I’m doing if anyone has any advice or things to look out for? I know these cards get abused by mining what’s the chance of them breaking?
 

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