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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

LifeisSuffering

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Cashless could happen sooner. A currency reform is overdue, the mounting piles of debt ... the nominees for Bidens finances transition team ... but I think such a development would be bad for Bitcoin and other coins that exist now.
Why would be bad for bitcoin and other currecies ?like the people will not need to use & invest in them after The lunch of the fiat coins?
for the value of the bitcoin, i think a lot of country that suffer from corruption and low economy will adapt bitcoin in their banking system to decentralizate.
 
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csalvato

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I have 0 downside. I already pulled a lot of profit from them, mostly from arbitrage when the market was much less in sync than today. The days of easy money in crytpo are probably gone.

I think this is a dangerous mental model. There is no such thing as house money. Once you win it, it's your money, not the house's. Then you have to evaluate the EV of your bets, and the opportunity cost of making others.

In other words, you still care if BTC goes to 0. You're just not admitting it. ;)
 

Andreas Thiel

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Why would be bad for bitcoin and other currecies ?like the people will not need to use & invest in them after The lunch of the fiat coins?
for the value of the bitcoin, i think a lot of country that suffer from corruption and low economy will adapt bitcoin in their banking system to decentralizate.
Not sure about the "some countries" part. I don't know enough about how viable Bitcoin would be in those countries once it has been rendered useless in many others.

Yes, cashless would compete with Bitcoin, and regulations or guarantees could easily make it more appealing to institutions. Not sure I am correct there ... but I think many pension funds have no alternative to Government Bonds because they are considered stable.
Imagine several currencies get introduced: a global one that is designed like Bitcoin, plus one per contry without an artificial block limit.
Maybe they could guarantee a predictable price development for the global Bitcoin alternative by shielding it from market dynamics. That would sound like a fun new key currency and appealing asset to put you wealth in to completely get rid of risk.
The other currencies could be more volatile and serve the purpose that fiat currencies currently serve.

Then there is a more out there argument which sounds like a conspirancy theory, but I take it seriously. The reasoning goes like this:

There might be a plan in place for a reset - to get rid of debt. Many policies get established that seem to serve only one purpose: making sure that the average guy pays the bill.
  • Insurance got a clause which says they can keep charging their customers without providing a service if they get in financial trouble.
  • The threshold for the obligation to inform the government when you buy gold keeps getting lowered.
  • Taxes are used for Corona relief.
  • A coming Bretton Woods moment has been announced.
  • The World Economic Forum wants a great reset which puts companies in charge of how the world operates.
In that context, cashless will just be a tool to make your finances 100% transparent for the government and that you can't hide anything when they start collecting.
Many jobs won't come back. There could be a basic income which is tied to a score (how well do people comply with the regulations and how much do they contribute to the sustainability and equality goals).

In that case Bitcoin might be a test run (you could call it a long con) for the coming digital currencies.
Arguably Satoshi Nakamoto can be translated as "Central Intelligence", which admittedly seems like a stretch, buuut ...: Did the NSA 'create' Satoshi Nakamoto? - SiliconANGLE.

But the narrative is compelling: introduce the public to something and keep telling them how this secures their independence of the government and evil big banks ... then ... bait and switch ... give them the opposite.
Some idealists will cry foul, but smear campaigns have made sure the majority is easily persuaded that Bitcoin is evil and a digital currency with government oversight is the only reasonable alternative.

They have already sent hidden (in plain sight) messages to their 1%ers:
  • Take note - data can be stored in Bitcoin ... this is the mechanism that we will use to render it useless.
  • Also, contrary to popular belief we have not lost control over how Bitcoin develops in the future. See? Here, we seize a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. Good enough?
Another aspect: the powers that be might actually want to pivot away from our current trajectory of unsustainable growth and consumption. A digital currency that keeps becoming more valuable (potentially with a guarantee that it will rise more than prices for goods) will make sure people embrace a Slow Lane on steroids, live more sedentary lifestyles and feel good about it.

In that scenario Bitcoin dies as a result of the new Bretton Woods moment and the "required" redistribution of wealth.
 
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Kevin88660

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For smart and people willing to learn crypto is a lottery ticket with positive EV.

You bet what you can afford to lose 100 percent.

Crypto have numerous systematic financial risk..hacking..bugs..”decentralized” but not really decentralized. You are always at the mercy of the project developers who can change the rules...

All these are balanced by “enormous potential upside”.

From a risk reward pov I dun buy the theory that btc and eth are “safe choice” than alt coins. The opportunity is more of guessing which small cap will rise to the top to become the big cap. 10-50x in the next bull market for alt, if there is any.
 
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Mike L

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Curious. I'm fascinated by crypto currency as well as the blockchain tech and I've read the whitepaper for some of these years back. But I haven't "invested" anything major in it. only a couple hundred euros out of curiosity.

You guys that are way more knowledgeable about this, what's the state of mining cryptos? Years back I felt everyone was talking about setting up GPU farms. I did some basic calculations way back and the gains were extremely small if you don't try and find a really good electricity deal. It must be even harder today (mining I mean)?
 

csalvato

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Imagine several currencies get introduced: a global one that is designed like Bitcoin, plus one per contry without an artificial block limit.
Maybe they could guarantee a predictable price development for the global Bitcoin alternative by shielding it from market dynamics. That would sound like a fun new key currency and appealing asset to put you wealth in to completely get rid of risk.
The other currencies could be more volatile and serve the purpose that fiat currencies currently serve.
Nothing about this seems correct to me.

If you think that either of those two scenarios compete with BTC, I'd argue you don't understand BTC's true value proposition, because they aren't competitive at all.

It's like comparing McDonald's to Omaha Steaks. They both deal with beef, but have totally different value props.

You're also ignoring adoption (or are implicitly proposing that because a gov't mandates it, everyone will adopt it).

That's not how adoption of a new technology works. It can't be forced by anyone, not even a government. People need to want to use it, and it goes through predictable phases of adoption (i.e. the law of diffusion of innovation).

The only crypto with enough traction and a track record to compete there is BTC. Not something some government(s) concoct to get full transparency into every transaction.

I mean, sure, maybe BTC is a conspiracy. If so, it's a pretty shit one, imo.
 

Andreas Thiel

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I'd argue you don't understand BTC's true value proposition, because they aren't competitive at all.
Can you elaborate? I know a hardcore crypto currency fan and I have probably heard how the distributed / decentralized nature allows blockchains to cut out the middle man to make grassroots finance products possible as an alternative to the horribly broken financial system a thousand times ...
but I have yet to hear a bull case for adoption and an outline of how this could realistically play out. If I have not understood that part of the value proposition by now, then no meaningful number of people ever will ...
... unless you can think of a gamechanger consumer product which does not require consumers to understand this abstract and confusing value proposition.

Okay, when the system collapses and Bitcoin / Blockchain alternatives are the only stable alternative that still works ... fine, but as I see it Bitcoin depends on the current system functioning extremely well right now. If we did see evidence of open source hardware and software initiatives collaborating and developing products and services that compete with big tech ... maybe one could argue the current system might be challenged by grassroots movements in the future. But I don't see it. Open Source efforts are isolated and there is no noteworthy orchestration going on.

In any other scenario, Bitcoin and any other digital currency are just competing assets.

When things went well for Bitcoin, it was because individuals and institutions with a bad case of the FOMOs got on board who did not care about those aspects at all. They worry about the legal aspects and still get in. They support the current financial system which they want to do well in.
I don't see a critical mass of people adopting the mindset that hardcore decentralization fans have. Ever.

The ECB already said that the development of a digital currency will take time because of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism solutions. The odds are that those will play the most significant role in the value array from the perspective of institutional investors.

You're also ignoring adoption (or are implicitly proposing that because a gov't mandates it, everyone will adopt it).
People will adopt it, because it will be completely risk free and replace hard cash. In many areas it will be the default, in others the only game in town. Should we check how adoption developed historically in the case of monetary reforms?
 
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Timmy C

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Many people look at bitcoin as the cure when it is merely an alternative to the conventional.

"Will it fail"

"What if it doesn't succeed?"

These questions expose a lack of understanding about bitcoin.

It's already working and doing exactly what its supposed to do.

Does volatility in an illiquid market surprise you?

It shouldn't.
Even cash is risk. Everything holds risk.
 

Timmy C

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You can't just replace bitcoin at this point.

The network effect and security of the network only improved as the network grows over time.

Fraud and 51% attacks aren't viable as the loot will be worthless; even if people can achieve such a feat, it exposes the network and leaves the loot as worthless to the fraudsters.

Bitcoin is a belief system like money but not exposed to printing.

It only has value because people believe in it! Crazy!

You mean like the belief that cash has value!? I agree that's nuts because cash is worth shit.
 

c4n

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In other words, you still care if BTC goes to 0. You're just not admitting it. ;)

You're right. I will be thrilled if BTC, or some other crypto I own, goes to the moon.

What I meant was it will have no negative effect on my living standard if it goes to 0. Lost in translation I guess :smile2:

You're focusing on the wrong part of my post though ;)
 
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csalvato

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Can you elaborate? I know a hardcore crypto currency fan and I have probably heard how the distributed / decentralized nature allows blockchains to cut out the middle man to make grassroots finance products possible as an alternative to the horribly broken financial system a thousand times ...
but I have yet to hear a bull case for adoption and an outline of how this could realistically play out. If I have not understood that part of the value proposition by now, then no meaningful number of people ever will ...
... unless you can think of a gamechanger consumer product which does not require consumers to understand this abstract and confusing value proposition.
Are you familiar with the theory of diffusion of innovation? Have you read Crossing the Chasm or Innovator's Dilemma?

If not, you may want to investigate these concepts, since it makes understanding Bitcoin adoption much more clear. We are currently still in the early adopter phase, with solid traction to cross the chasm into mainstream adoption.

We aren't there yet, but there's no reason to think the chasm won't be crossed given the momentum that BTC already has, and it doesn't have the challenge of needing to be marketed like a commercial product.

All the tell-tale signs of innovation diffusion are there:

1. An evangelical group of innovators and early adopters.
2. A downtrend in difficulty of adoption as UI/UX improves
3. Increased network effects (making the message of the evangelists even more potent)

Compare this to other innovations , like TV, radio and telephone, who had similar adoption curves that span various time periods:

diff_02.gif


To compare, what if the US gov't banned the use of the telephone halfway up the adoption curve? Do you think it would have stopped? Maybe in the US, but not the rest of the world. And the rest of the world would have outpaced the US tremendously.

So even if the US and other governments ban Crypto, the ones that don't will be in a far better fiscal position. This is how power dynamics undergo radical shifts.

Similarly, what if the government stepped in and tried to take control of the telephony industry? All innovation would have ceased (as it did with the AT&T breakup), until it was picked back up by another industry. In the case of Bitcoin, that just means the rest of the world picks up the slack and outpaces the US or any other intervening government.

Putting all this aside for a second, no one need to know how this all works. Not you, not me, not the masses. The vast majority of people don't know how anything works (email, spreadsheets, even their toilet bowl).

Regardless of whether or not people understand how it works, and the value prop of BTC at scale for all people across the spectrum, the value BTC provides across the spectrum is there.

What people under fascism know is that no one can take their bitcoins away unless they give them permission or compromise their keys.

Large institutions will know that they can transfer $1B for <$50 in under an hour.

People in unbanked situations will know they can easily send money to each other (or from first world to third world), for minimal fees in under an hour.

Companies operating across country borders will know they can avoid fees + losses due to market inefficiencies (i.e. values changing while waiting 3-5 biz days for a wire), because they can transfer BTC for a lower cost, faster.

Criminals, prostitutes and legit businesses that are concerned about privacy (e.g. legal marijuana operations) will know that if they never KYC their wallets, they can have a medium of exchange that is anonymous and not going to expose them to risks of trying to get banked.

The use cases go on and on. No one needs to understand all of them, or even how BTC works. We are already seeing early adopters jump on board for *all* of these use cases.

IMO, your thinking is too narrow. I don't expect this to change your opinion. It does seem like you're on the journey to find truth, though. If, after researching and processing what I am saying, you still disagree...that's fine.

I'm just hoping others reading this can see both sides of the coin here (not just the rose-colored glasses of a bitcoin bull), and that, perhaps, it may change your opinion when you consider an alternative perspective (something you seem open to)
 
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LifeisSuffering

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Can you elaborate? I know a hardcore crypto currency fan and I have probably heard how the distributed / decentralized nature allows blockchains to cut out the middle man to make grassroots finance products possible as an alternative to the horribly broken financial system a thousand times ...
but I have yet to hear a bull case for adoption and an outline of how this could realistically play out. If I have not understood that part of the value proposition by now, then no meaningful number of people ever will ...
... unless you can think of a gamechanger consumer product which does not require consumers to understand this abstract and confusing value proposition.

Okay, when the system collapses and Bitcoin / Blockchain alternatives are the only stable alternative that still works ... fine, but as I see it Bitcoin depends on the current system functioning extremely well right now. If we did see evidence of open source hardware and software initiatives collaborating and developing products and services that compete with big tech ... maybe one could argue the current system might be challenged by grassroots movements in the future. But I don't see it. Open Source efforts are isolated and there is no noteworthy orchestration going on.

In any other scenario, Bitcoin and any other digital currency are just competing assets.

When things went well for Bitcoin, it was because individuals and institutions with a bad case of the FOMOs got on board who did not care about those aspects at all. They worry about the legal aspects and still get in. They support the current financial system which they want to do well in.
I don't see a critical mass of people adopting the mindset that hardcore decentralization fans have. Ever.

The ECB already said that the development of a digital currency will take time because of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism solutions. The odds are that those will play the most significant role in the value array from the perspective of institutional investors.


People will adopt it, because it will be completely risk free and replace hard cash. In many areas it will be the default, in others the only game in town. Should we check how adoption developed historically in the case of monetary reforms?
So what are you saying that Bitcoin is just a demo-lunch for other crypto( the one that replace fiat money), and the value his has now is just due to FOMO investors
 
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csalvato

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So what are you saying that Bitcoin is just a demo-lunch for other crypto( the one that replace fiat money), and the value his has now is just due to FOMO investors
Yeah I guess I didn't really address this.

That all my points are seemingly moot if you think BTC is just the pregame to a better version of the same thing.

I think if you understand the theory of diffusion of innovation, it's clear why the probability of that is near 0.
 

Andreas Thiel

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So what are you saying that Bitcoin is just a demo-lunch for other crypto( the one that replace fiat money), and the value his has now is just due to FOMO investors
At least I take that train of thought seriously. I am not saying that is definitely the case.
Bitcoin as a currency has serious limitations. That is why investors who believe it is a great alternative to gold determine its fate, not idealists.

Our mental models around Blockchain and Bitcoin are extremely crude. Assume that blockchain technology does actually completely transform the world of finance. There is an infographic that illustrated that things miiight get complicated.
What will the role that Bitcoin plays be in such a complex world? I think it might be around, but without playing the huge role that people expect now.

I try to think about how the world will develop by playing the thought and so far I think goverments and companies are in a position to decide how we enter this new age.
Arguably a monetary reform is in our near future. Even if Bitcoin was actually the innovation, not a test run, Bitcoin will have to prove itself over and over again.

IMO, your thinking is too narrow. I don't expect this to change your opinion. It does seem like you're on the journey to find truth, though. If, after researching and processing what I am saying, you still disagree...that's fine.
Yes, agreed. But all of us have that problem. I just think your innovation argument is too vague. Sure, blockchain technology will be around ... but why is the probability that Bitcoin has a Kodak moment (the one where Kodak suddenly seized to matter - hey, they had one of the first digital cameras and decided they suck and have no future).

In that vast universe of blockchain based "future finance", Bitcoin only has the potential to be the gold equivalent. That is worth something, definitely.
But is completely wrong to equate the future of finance with Bitcoin.
 

LifeisSuffering

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I think if you understand the theory of diffusion of innovation, it's clear why the probability of that is near 0
i totaly understood and i agree with you about that and the uses of bitcoin
also nation of the world can disagree about the transaction with bitcoin after lunching their own crypto(the one that will replace fiat ) like gold coins back in the days
 
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LifeisSuffering

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In that vast universe of blockchain based "future finance"

blockshain will not just change the banking industry but can change also the whole accured assets
think about it it can be used in real estate, cmpanies,cars and can faster or get rit of the administration proccess
The Future of Money - Infographic
i saw the Infographic it make sense by the way that we are going to a futur like that (decentralized) and it up to the government to manage the shift and decide about what to incorporate bitcoin or not
 

awsamro

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Hi Guys,

I am newbie about cryptocurrencies.
Do you suggest any book or forum to understand well this argument ?

Thanks
Hello,
I suggest Crypto Currency Investment course by Suppoman on Udemy. Add it to your watch list and buy it when it goes on discount for around $20.
 
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awsamro

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i totaly understood and i agree with you about that and the uses of bitcoin
also nation of the world can disagree about the transaction with bitcoin after lunching their own crypto(the one that will replace fiat ) like gold coins back in the days
What do you guys think of bitcoin ETF QBTC? I am thinking of buying slowly into it over the next few years to coat average. Also Im from Canada and you can hold ETFs in a tax sheltered vehicle here but you can not do the same for straight up Crypto.
 

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@James Fend Your estimations on the correction are still strong?

Seems like we're going to see a bull run in the next days...

Yes. Not sure if I posted here, but I sold most of my positions in the mid $15ks, and although I expect $13k in Dec sometime, I mentioned that it could run up to $17k and $19k until then. Usually where I feel like it's getting in the top range; I will swing trade in and out. I've been mostly swing trading alts in the past week or so.

Note: 2020 logic would say it prints an all time higher high. So there's a strong chance it busts low $20ks before heading down. Either way; I will continue to swing trade in and out reducing my exposure to any sudden sell off. Also; regardless where the top price actually lands, I still am playing as if the $13k correction will still occur as printing a lower low needs to be tested and accomplished before we see a full blown bull in 2021.
 
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James Fake

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MY THOUGHTS ON STOCK MARKETS & ALL EQUITIES IN 2020 Q4 AND 2021 Q1:

I believe there's a strong possibility we see a LONG SELL OFF IN ALL EQUITIES STARTING NEXT WEEK (NOVEMBER 23 - 27) THAT WILL LAST TO FEB/MARCH OF 2021 (quite possibly leading into a giant double-bottom)

WHY?

SELL THE NEWS.

RUMOR =
Everybody and their gramma bought stocks from March to now in anticipation of the Golden Days to return.

NEWS = The Vaccine gets approval and begins distribution.

THIS IS THE NEWS TO SELL for the Return to Normal Days anticipation (aka Rumor) people bought their "long term holds" for.


Without the Fed this time (and likely ZERO Stimulus and zero FED tampering in the 3-4 month horizon), the PSYCHOLOGY GAME RETURNS BACK TO NORMAL MARKET RULES, and this means that big bold contrarian moves is where and how the big funds move since they have now re-gained control from the crazy influx of Fed retail trader money.


The vaccine is currently about 90-95% proven in trials, distribution is all ready to go with pharma companies having the logistics almost all in place: tons of vials, cold shipping boxes/containers/storage, contracts with FedEx, etc., and FDA is rushing and pressured to approve something.

Remember back in February and March; when I was screaming about Covid while it wasn't even a thing... And it then turned into a pandemic, and was a pandemic for weeks, but it wasn't "officially" one to where people were all hell broke loose freaking until: WHO officially declared it a global pandemic.

Same thing here. Not sure why people need an official announcement or declaration to see something so obvious, but its clear the vaccines works (at least for the short term of ~1 year).. so it doesn't need an official approval from the FDA for me to know its the real deal and works. BUT IT'S LIKELY THIS EXACT ANNOUNCEMENT TYPE NEWS IS WHAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE BALL OVER THE HILL.

Anyways; with that all said.. Just as I did in February with huge shorts and puts and rode it down to Max Market Fear Day in mid March; I have already begun getting into big Short positions this past week. I will ignore any run up that could possibly occur Monday or Tuesday, and expect a big sell candle later Weds or Thurs or Friday.

If it does happen; I will ride these big Puts & Shorts all way to the pits until February 2021.

If a big sell candle does not happen (or continue to look super shaky leading into last week Nov/early Dec), then I will check out market conditions, and technicals and may pivot or adjust accordingly if anything changes in big ways. But for right now.... It's Game On.

As far as Bitcoin; I think Bitcoin will depend on a few other factors: For right now, the initial sell off of equities should bring all ships down with the down tide, but USA admin office transfer and stimulus talks in other countries will have a huge affect on Bitcoin's possible bounce (or lack there of) as it could be used as a hedge against govt or currency turbulence and inverse stocks.

Anways... will be interesting to see how this year unfolds.

EDIT: Adding in current valuations. DJI: 29,263 S&P: 3557
 
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John Maynard Keynes is about be be proven ridiculously wrong

I know :rofl: , Keynes was a giant shill and a schmuck.

As soon as crypto becomes more widely used and accepted because of its efficiency. Visa and Mastercard will be carried out in body bags.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
 
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c4n

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MY THOUGHTS ON STOCK MARKETS & ALL EQUITIES IN 2020 Q4 AND 2021 Q1:

I believe there's a strong possibility we see a LONG SELL OFF IN ALL EQUITIES STARTING NEXT WEEK (NOVEMBER 23 - 27) THAT WILL LAST TO FEB/MARCH OF 2021 (quite possibly leading into a giant double-bottom)

Always interesting to read your input, @James Fend, even when it reads like a doomsday scenario. Or especially then :)

The S&P 500 on weekly looks like a broadening wedge to me with RSI divergence - if it plays out it could go down near to 2000 before June 2021. I can't predict the future though so asses & adjust as things unfold.

I agree - if the market goes down, crypto will also take a sizeable hit, just like it did in March 2020.

One thing I noticed in March was how gold behaves - paper gold went down with the market, but physical gold held strong because it was hard to get (delivery times for bullion and coins were 30+ days) as people rushed to buy it.
 

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Thanks for the interesting input @James Fend.
I have mixed feelings about Bitcoin right now. But long-term I'm totally bullish. Could go back down to 12k but not sure if much further. Sold a part of my position at 14k and a little at 17k but still long.

And I have a similar problem with the stock markets.
- Inflation will be big in the next couple of years that would be positive for Bitcoin and rather bad for US stocks.
- The pandemic is coming to an end. Maybe a little earlier than expected. Yeah, probably a bearish signal. But a lot of people know that usually after a crisis we can see a huge bullish period.

In my mind, it's difficult to predict the next couple of months. But I think we'll probably see Bitcoin coming down to 12k or even further. However, I think a quick pullback to 20k is likely. Chances are high that it could even go to 25k in the first half of 2021.
I'm also bullish on stocks. However, I'll minimize my risks and look at what will happen in the next couple of weeks. I think the USD will have a hard time but stocks will go up in 2021.
 

Kasimir

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I'm not sure if the bull run of Bitcoin is finished as some of you guys think. We probably see a medium since correction to around 14k or 15k but then I think we could be ready for om 25k highs at least.
 

Timmy C

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I'm not sure if the bull run of Bitcoin is finished as some of you guys think. We probably see a medium since correction to around 14k or 15k, but then I think we could be ready for om 25k highs at least.
I don't think many people here believe bitcoins bull run is finished.

Some pull backs, yes.

But this is only getting started.
 

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