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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Rivoli

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Ah, I see the issue. We were defining the word 'data' differently. I've always called those "anecdotes," but regardless - I genuinely hope you're right. I hope this turns out to be the world's biggest 'nothing-burger.' I mean if it does, it will be due to our quick action but regardless of how or why I do hope things turn out that way.
Chris, I’ll stop you right there.

The first source you gave, theres 30 patients with all patients improving, 15 given HCQ, what were the other 15 given?

Did you even read it?
 
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Rivoli

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Lol @ChrisV why did you edit your post and remove the sources? Did you realize they supported my findings?



***chris furiously googles for reports that conclusively show HCQ doesnt work and cant find any***
 
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GIlman

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I’m in contact with 3 nurses in the NYC area and they said HCQ is working really really well. The usually administer it before putting someone on a vent and in every case the day after the start proscribing there’s a huge improvement.




Laugh all you want but I’ve been right about everything. You’ll see.

Although anecdotal stories raise hope, I will await a credible study to form a concrete opinion.

For the reasons I’ve stated before I would take it if/when I get sick. But I have seen far to many anecdotal things fall apart when put to the scrutiny of a good study. Fingers crossed a proper study will prove the anecdotal beliefs of these nurses.
 

ChrisV

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Chris, I’ll stop you right there.

The first source you gave, theres 30 patients with all patients improving, 15 given HCQ, what were the other 15 given?

Did you even read it?
Umm, you mean the control group? Every study does that. They compare the new treatment to 'treatment as usual.' So all patients improved despite 50% of them not even receiving HCQ, which is called regression toward the mean. For example If I have a cold, and I take Rabbit Oil, and I get better you can't say it was the Rabbit Oil that worked because people naturally get better.

From the study:

The median duration from hospitalization to virus nucleic acid negative conservation was 4 (1-9) days in HCQ group, which is comparable to that in the control group [2 (1-4) days, (U = 83.5, P>0.05)]

The median time for body temperature normalization in HCQ group was 1 (0-2) after hospitalization, which was also comparable to that in the control group 1 (0-3). Radiological progression was shown on CT images in 5 cases (33.3%) of the HCQ group and 7 cases (46.7%) of the control group, and all patients showed improvement in follow-up examination. Four cases (26.7%) of the HCQ group and 3 cases (20%) of the control group had transient diarrhea and abnormal liver function (P> 0.05)


In other words there was no significant difference between the two groups.

I removed the first half of the post because I originally posted that as a reply then decided it wasn't worth getting into. I didn't realize the text was still in the Reply Box and when I posted my reply, the original text was still there, which I deleted right away.

Relax, there's no cover-up. I just don't feel like getting into this.

But for transparency reasons I'll post the studies I cited. [1, 2, 3]
 
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Primeperiwinkle

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I removed the first half of the post because I originally posted that as a reply then decided it wasn't worth getting into. I didn't realize the text was still in the Reply Box and when I posted my reply, the original text was still there, which I deleted right away.

That’s happened to me approximately 4,201 times on the forum!!! Apparently I vent a LOT and then erase it... or I make a funny joke but later it’s like.. not that funny or I just think wow that was 987 words of pointless girl chatter.. hm.

A few times I called someone a name.. oh!! Once I had this whole entire rant against this poster and I WENT OFF only to delete it cuz I didn’t want to be rude and like five minutes later MJ posted a full on savage reply to the guy.. I swear we must have been typing at the same time.. but whatevs. My point is.. thank God I can delete things 2 seconds after posting. Yikes!
 

scottmsul

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Has anyone seen this? Doctor in NY uses hydroxychloroquine + zinc + antibiotics (for secondary infections). Claims to have cured 699 patients with zero deaths.

 
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Jon L

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Chris, I’ll stop you right there.

The first source you gave, theres 30 patients with all patients improving, 15 given HCQ, what were the other 15 given?

Did you even read it?
30 patients is an anecdote. That's small enough where randomness can affect the outcome dramatically. There was a study in China that showed no effect. Should we believe that one too?

I still say that its hopeful, and the anecdotes are pointing in the right direction. Until you give me an actual study with 1000+ people, these will be 'hopeful sounding stories.'

There's a reason why this study was commissioned:

https://www.livescience.com/hydroxychloroquine-prevent-C0VlD-19-study.html


Here are some actual experts (as opposed to whatever it is we are here) discussing the drug:

 
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GIlman

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Has anyone seen this? Doctor in NY uses hydroxychloroquine + zinc + antibiotics (for secondary infections). Claims to have cured 699 patients with zero deaths.


I’ve been following this guy. There are several issues I’ve seen. One of the big ones is inclusion criteria. It appears he is treating patients based on symptoms not on covid # tests per se. in the first report of his findings, me makes several assumptions about prevalence in the population not supported by data.
 

Rivoli

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Umm, you mean the control group? Every study does that. They compare the new treatment to 'treatment as usual.' So all patients improved despite 50% of them not even receiving HCQ, which is called regression toward the mean. For example If I have a cold, and I take Rabbit Oil, and I get better you can't say it was the Rabbit Oil that worked because people naturally get better.

From the study:

The median duration from hospitalization to virus nucleic acid negative conservation was 4 (1-9) days in HCQ group, which is comparable to that in the control group [2 (1-4) days, (U = 83.5, P>0.05)]

The median time for body temperature normalization in HCQ group was 1 (0-2) after hospitalization, which was also comparable to that in the control group 1 (0-3). Radiological progression was shown on CT images in 5 cases (33.3%) of the HCQ group and 7 cases (46.7%) of the control group, and all patients showed improvement in follow-up examination. Four cases (26.7%) of the HCQ group and 3 cases (20%) of the control group had transient diarrhea and abnormal liver function (P> 0.05)


In other words there was no significant difference between the two groups.

I removed the first half of the post because I originally posted that as a reply then decided it wasn't worth getting into. I didn't realize the text was still in the Reply Box and when I posted my reply, the original text was still there, which I deleted right away.

Relax, there's no cover-up. I just don't feel like getting into this.

But for transparency reasons I'll post the studies I cited. [1, 2, 3]

The “control group” were given the anti virals lopinavir and ritonavir. You didn’t read the study and the background.

All it proved was HCQ was about as affective as some of the other best therapeutics.
 
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Rivoli

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Were you right about selling that $10K in SPX Puts about a month ago?

They're down about 20% since then...

Hopefully you realized you were wrong and didn't do it...

View attachment 31695
Economy is coming back in 6 months

You know maybe I lost a little. But at least I didn’t lose $1.8 million on shitcoins like you did. How much is XRP worth genius?

Remember how you use to shill ETH? Sad really. You would actually say that XRP was a currency you used all the time lmao. I tried warning you and you had the same snarky dismissiveness. Anyone could look at your posts in the Web 3.0 ETH thread and know you have 0 credibility. Behind your snarky snipes there’s no real scrutiny or wisdom.

Why don’t you put me back on ignore to save being roasted. @JScott utterly, absolutely and eternally BTFO
 
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Rivoli

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Has anyone seen this? Doctor in NY uses hydroxychloroquine + zinc + antibiotics (for secondary infections). Claims to have cured 699 patients with zero deaths.

This guy looks a little weird. Seems pretty woo woo to me. But there are real dr’s I know at NY hospital that are saying HCQ is legit.
 

Rabby

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What we all need to do now is lock ourselves in a room together and punch each other in the face until we're best friends.

That, or a duel of martinis at point blank range.

Those two strategies have worked for me over and over again.

Can't say this is anything but anecdotal though. Sample size less than 200 people, I'm pretty sure. actually I'm not sure of the sample size, more I think about it.
 
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biophase

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I’m in contact with 3 nurses in the NYC area and they said HCQ is working really really well. The usually administer it before putting someone on a vent and in every case the day after the start proscribing there’s a huge improvement.

Laugh all you want but I’ve been right about everything. You’ll see.

Getting information from nurses. Mr. nothing burger seems to worried about this now.
 

Mckenzie

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Bearcorp

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GIlman

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The “control group” were given the anti virals lopinavir and ritonavir. You didn’t read the study and the background.

All it proved was HCQ was about as affective as some of the other best therapeutics.

This is a good observation @Rivoli. This was a flaw of this study IMO. But unfortunately on the flip side there is study of ritonovir/lopinivir as a case controlled study that showed no meaningful effect. I linked to it in one of my earlier posts.

Between these two studies it make HCQ seem less promising. Part of the problem at the moment is what dosage of HCQ to use. If it does have an effect, it may not be appreciable except at higher doses. I’ve been looking at different regimens and they are all over the place on dosing. This is one possible reason that some studies could show no effect and maybe later studies show some or good effect.
 
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Xeon

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Ernman

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MJ might need to have us all socially distance ourselves from the forum until we get back to normal if we end up like him!
I am purposely limiting my time on this thread. While there is very good information being shared by some, there is also far too much speculation and nonsense being spewed by others.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Trevor Kuntz

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BTW...
Did Andrew get his 12 books in 12 months out? :(

No, but he’s got 12 months to write 12 more!
  1. Cheetos in Paradise: My South American Adventure
  2. The Thousandaire Fastlane
  3. Limitless Potential
  4. How I Got 1M Downloads and Tens of Dollars
  5. Be Your Own Supervisor
  6. 140 Hour Work Week
  7. Coding and Dating in the Age of Covid
  8. FAME: My Book Writing Journey
  9. How to Get The Girl or A Girl
  10. Fast Life: Your Road to Financial Freedom and An Acura Legend
  11. Fast Life 2: Budget Eating and Sustenance for a Healthy Life
  12. Living the Limitless Life Again: My Third Autobiography
 

WillHurtDontCare

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I was just reading AndrewNC’s thread on here for kicks. This is going to be all of us at the end of this pandemic :

View attachment 31696

Source: GOLD! - How much does a Lamborghini really cost?

F*** that. I'm exercising more often than I did before they closed my gym, studying to improve my exercise form, making fasting a bigger part of my life, cutting out the snack food, and drinking more water. If I have to be locked in my apartment then I'm going to get something out of it.

I'm going to be in the best shape of my life by the time this is over. I suggest that everyone else do the same.
 
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GoodluckChuck

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James Klymus

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Everyone who hasn't should read this short letter from a dude that was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene for 22 years to the Chancellor of Germany.

Warning: Your beliefs might be called into question.

Unfortunately I feel like much of the precautions taken, not just by us but a lot of the world, have been acts of political correctness and virtue signaling, as opposed to true concern for public health.

On the opposite side of the argument, I can understand why politicians take the “better safe than sorry” approach.

Take precautions and things get bad = we’re doing all we can.

Take precautions and things don’t get bad = good thing we acted swiftly

Don’t take precautions and things get bad= things wouldn’t have gotten bad if we we would have prepared

Don’t take precautions and things don’t get bad = he was being reckless by not preparing for the worst

I get it. Leaders are in a tough position.

Even though they technically have 4 options, they really only have 1. Otherwise they face public scrutiny and aren’t likely to be re-elected.
 

GIlman

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Unfortunately I feel like much of the precautions taken, not just by us but a lot of the world, have been acts of political correctness and virtue signaling, as opposed to true concern for public health.

On the opposite side of the argument, I can understand why politicians take the “better safe than sorry” approach.

Take precautions and things get bad = we’re doing all we can.

Take precautions and things don’t get bad = good thing we acted swiftly

Don’t take precautions and things get bad= things wouldn’t have gotten bad if we we would have prepared

Don’t take precautions and things don’t get bad = he was being reckless by not preparing for the worst

I get it. Leaders are in a tough position.

Even though they technically have 4 options, they really only have 1. Otherwise they face public scrutiny and aren’t likely to be re-elected.

What a great post man. That synopsis of options is spot on, I have always felt this was being applied to many things like climate change and other “issues” too. The pattern of options seems common when you have some concrete data like # of infections or temperature is rising. Then apply a model to predict the future.

My opinion at the moment is that reason 1 is the likely scenario to play out For this situation. But time will tell.

Assuming news coming out of New York is mostly accurate, it seems like the situation there is nearing the edge of their hospital system. I guess we will know when or if these temporary facilities start to fill up with people. If they don't get used, then we have a clear indication they were not needed and one of the other scenarios was at play.
 
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ZF Lee

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Unfortunately I feel like much of the precautions taken, not just by us but a lot of the world, have been acts of political correctness and virtue signaling, as opposed to true concern for public health.

On the opposite side of the argument, I can understand why politicians take the “better safe than sorry” approach.

Take precautions and things get bad = we’re doing all we can.

Take precautions and things don’t get bad = good thing we acted swiftly

Don’t take precautions and things get bad= things wouldn’t have gotten bad if we we would have prepared

Don’t take precautions and things don’t get bad = he was being reckless by not preparing for the worst

I get it. Leaders are in a tough position.

Even though they technically have 4 options, they really only have 1. Otherwise they face public scrutiny and aren’t likely to be re-elected.
Ah...re-election.

My country blew up for a bit, when the financial stimulus introduced by the government actually placed more focus on helping poorer folks, rather than SMEs who employ most of them.

Rumours ran that this government was seeking to 'buy votes'.

Since then, we've an SME allotment scheme of up to a million ringgit (under certain qualifications, of course). Yet, my Whatsapp still wags on with political judgements...

But I wonder about the old days when leaders could do what it takes to serve the nation, and the people would rally behind them, even though the plan wasn't the greatest.

Now, one wrong move, and people start saying 'no-vote'.

On that article, it felt more like a data science problem.
How many angles can non-data folks (especially those in governance) look at, to cover up all gaps?
 
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Rabby

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Unfortunately I feel like much of the precautions taken, not just by us but a lot of the world, have been acts of political correctness and virtue signaling, as opposed to true concern for public health.

On the opposite side of the argument, I can understand why politicians take the “better safe than sorry” approach.

Take precautions and things get bad = we’re doing all we can.

Take precautions and things don’t get bad = good thing we acted swiftly

Don’t take precautions and things get bad= things wouldn’t have gotten bad if we we would have prepared

Don’t take precautions and things don’t get bad = he was being reckless by not preparing for the worst

I get it. Leaders are in a tough position.

Even though they technically have 4 options, they really only have 1. Otherwise they face public scrutiny and aren’t likely to be re-elected.

This describes political thinking perfectly, as well as being an accurate simulation of public sentiment.
 

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