Coronavirus - How worried should we be about it? - a Data Scientist perspective.

[ChrisV]

I know there are already a number of threads up, but I don't want this to get lost in the noise. What does the data say on the Coronavirus.

















Full thread:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237047880214392832

View: https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1237047880214392832

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MHP368]

Yeh the human mind has difficulty with exponential growth. Doubles every 6 to 10 days. about 2/3rds of hospital beds already in use for non respiratory cases at any given time. Government in the US didn't even bother to ask any questions to people on returning flights from hot spots about exposure to the sick or question them in any way , community spread confirmed in...oh idk more than a half dozen now (meaning the cats out of the bag)

C'est la vie.

 

[TonyStark]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI&t=36s

 

[TonyStark]

They cancelled SXSW here in Austin.

On one hand, the Coronavirus is a global disaster/pandemic, and on the other, I enjoy watching the world come together and take these issues seriously.

Nitrogen dioxide levels have gone way down over China, so there’s a silver lining.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Matt Sun]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFEstB9mhKQ&t=637s

 

[lowtek]

They cancelled SXSW here in Austin.

On one hand, the Coronavirus is a global disaster/pandemic, and on the other, I enjoy watching the world come together and take these issues seriously.

Nitrogen dioxide levels have gone way down over China, so there’s a silver lining.

Have you seen any recent data on this (i.e. the last week)? I recall it being down late last month, but haven't seen an update.

 

[Saavedra]

so it is going to be 10 times worse than the flu, at 10000000 times the cost. sounds like a logical and industrious way to react to the fact that life is neither safe nor eternal.

i wonder when society will be logical enough again to start asking difficult but logical questions that defy feelings, like if it is logical to spend whatever amount of money to extend a life 10 years. or 5.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Jon L]

This was sent to me by a doctor. It also passes the smell test. Quite interesting. It essentially says the same thing Chris is saying, but in a different way. Worth a read.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

 

[BellaPippin]

This was sent to me by a doctor. It also passes the smell test. Quite interesting. It essentially says the same thing Chris is saying, but in a different way. Worth a read.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

Damn. Felt sick to my stomach reading this.

Not gonna lie this made me place a second Instacart order with some more canned goods/pasta/frozen veggies. Just got an email from office that they are implementing loose WFH scheduling starting Friday and most offices are doing the same so better have some more food...

 

[Jon L]

Damn. Felt sick to my stomach reading this.

Not gonna lie this made me place a second Instacart order with some more canned goods/pasta/frozen veggies. Just got an email from office that they are implementing loose WFH scheduling starting Friday and most offices are doing the same so better have some more food...

I bought 15 lbs of brown rice last week, along with some pinto beans, etc.

Yeah, this is kinda scary. Here in Seattle, a number of places have shut down. But for some reason, kids are still in school. Crazy. I'm keeping mine at home as of today. I also sent an email to my kids' schools, plus the district that essentially says, "Dude. WTF are you thinking keeping things open?" Nicely, of course, along with a copy of this article.

This is what I said in my email, if you're curious:

Hi,

I'm not happy with how the district is handling the coronavirus response. When China was at the spot we are at now, they shut everything down. It was only that draconian measure that allowed them to get a handle on things. We here in the West are asleep at the wheel in comparison.

I know that the health department has recommended that public schools stay open. Part of that is because of the impact that shutting them down will have on the community. However, I believe this is the wrong response. We are going to have a very serious problem if we don't start taking things more seriously. Today.

A doctor I know sent me this article. It is very well reasoned, and needs to be digested by people in charge of BSD:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[BellaPippin]

Like I said I'm not too worried about myself but since the healthcare system seems to head to complete **** I feel it will be a big big help if we young people just try our best to not get sick or get anyone sick and spare a bed/examination room. And that is as easy as WFH if you can and washing my hands and carrying some wipes.

The info shows that if we can at least just delay getting sick that gives the system enough time to treat everyone appropriately, that's huge.

Social Distancing! An introvert's dream

 

[Jon L]

Like I said I'm not too worried about myself but since the healthcare system seems to head to complete **** I feel it will be a big big help if we young people just try our best to not get sick or get anyone sick and spare a bed/examination room. And that is as easy as WFH if you can and washing my hands and carrying some wipes.

The info shows that if we can at least just delay getting sick that gives the system enough time to treat everyone appropriately, that's huge.

Yeah, its remarkable comparing the infection and death rates in China vs Italy. Truly crazy.

I think we can all do our parts by staying home if possible and practicing OCD level cleanliness.

 

[Ing]

Really, I totaly didnt see the real size of that.
A month ago I sayd that noone in Germany cares about C.
I was totaly wrong and I really am a bit afraid of that all.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Andy Black]

I bought 15 lbs of brown rice last week, along with some pinto beans, etc.

Yeah, this is kinda scary. Here in Seattle, a number of places have shut down. But for some reason, kids are still in school. Crazy. I'm keeping mine at home as of today. I also sent an email to my kids' schools, plus the district that essentially says, "Dude. WTF are you thinking keeping things open?" Nicely, of course, along with a copy of this article.

This is what I said in my email, if you're curious:

Hi,

I'm not happy with how the district is handling the coronavirus response. When China was at the spot we are at now, they shut everything down. It was only that draconian measure that allowed them to get a handle on things. We here in the West are asleep at the wheel in comparison.

I know that the health department has recommended that public schools stay open. Part of that is because of the impact that shutting them down will have on the community. However, I believe this is the wrong response. We are going to have a very serious problem if we don't start taking things more seriously. Today.

A doctor I know sent me this article. It is very well reasoned, and needs to be digested by people in charge of BSD:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Blimey. That’s some article. I’d noticed the news keeps saying “there’s X number of cases” rather than “there’s X number of confirmed cases”. Just goes to show that “confirmed” is just the tip of the iceberg.

EDIT: Yep, I just watched the 9 o'clock news and they keep saying "X cases" instead of "X confirmed cases". It must be deliberate. Surely someone knows there's a difference?

 

[NursingTn]

Socially, the corona virus is a significant threat to the healthcare system infrastructure.

Individually, the corona virus is a significant threat to people with weakened immune systems and underlying conditions such as cystic fibrosis and COPD that predispose them to secondary complications including respiratory infections and respiratory distress as secondary.

Like Bella said, the goal is to slow the spread of the disease so the healthcare system isn't completely tapped to increase the likelihood that hospitalization is available for more people who needs it when they get really sick regardless if it is from the corona virus.

As always, don't touch your face, wash your hands before and after literally everything, and stay away from people showing signs of respiratory infection minimize your likelihood of getting infected.

 

[Jon L]

Well, my email must have worked (kidding) The local school district just announced that they're shutting down the schools effective at the end of Thursday.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[ChrisV]

i wonder when society will be logical enough again to start asking difficult but logical questions that defy feelings, like if it is logical to spend whatever amount of money to extend a life 10 years. or 5.

When it's your mom or dad I'm sure you'll feel differently.

 

[Ing]

When it's your mom or dad I'm sure you'll feel differently.

I d be happy about some years more, too.

 

[Jon L]

When it's your mom or dad I'm sure you'll feel differently.

yeah ... the thing is that you don't know how much time you're giving a person. Some people only have their lives extended by a few months. Others, in the same situation, are extended by many years. One guy I know was in the ICU for three months. At one point during his coma, he was given an hour (yeah ... 1 hour) to live. He recovered and is now expected to live for many years to come. A number of other people were admitted to the ICU during the same time frame for the same condition at his hospital. All of them died.

How do you make the call to not spend the money?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[WillHurtDontCare]

I mentioned this in my own thread, but, "never let a crisis go to waste."

This is a very good opportunity. There are going to be a few people who do a lot of good and make a lot of money in the next few months. Why shouldn't it be you?

You could probably start your own religion now if you felt like it. Lots of possibilities.

I'll keep banging this drum in every coronavirus thread that pops up - problems are opportunities; big problems are big opportunities.

 

[Rabby]

"Stay calm is bad advice / not helpful..."

I've decided to play devil's advocate here.

The idea that "stay calm" is bad advice seems fallacious to me. Calmness means taming the emotions. High emotional states lead people to panic, and in some situations, poor decisions.

If you are being chased by a wild animal, staying calm may not be a primary concern. In that case, you just need to run, and if a heightened emotional state focuses you on running, all well and good.

When you have days or weeks to come up with a strategy for dealing with changes in your environment, a heightened emotional state is counter-productive. People can not plan in the midst of panic. I am nearly certain that data scientists are not panicking in their data science offices as they work; how on Earth would they get anything done?

What data scientists need, and what everyone needs if they want to mitigate a bad situation, is a good dose of:

• reason
• logic
• analysis
• proper research
• evaluation
• planning
• anything-but-gonzo-emotions
• c a l m

Being calm has saved my life and other people's lives several times. Calm and aware. Calm, and observant. Calm, and reasonable. What good does it do anyone to be less than calm? Why should they expend energy on panic, rumination, stress vomiting, or other not-calm things?

 

[Entre Eyes]

Thanks Chris! Data is the key always.

Also transparency..some think transparency will lead to their incarceration or something and probably right.

The challenge...

He says its all about the response....which is why China is almost down to 1%. Because they locked down entire cities whereas it would be hard to imagine with USA.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Rabby]

Thanks Chris! Data is the key always.

Also transparency..some think transparency will lead to their incarceration and probably right.

We are in a catch 22 here...

HOT! - PEOPLE - Coronavirus - How worried should we be about it? - a Data Scientist perspective.

I know there are already a number of threads up, but I don't want this to get lost in the noise. What does the data say on the Coronavirus. Full thread: View: https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1237047880214392832

www.thefastlaneforum.com

He says its all about the response....which is why China is almost down to 1%. Because they locked down entire cities whereas it would be hard to imagine with USA.

Let's clarify though. Data is "the key" if it is good, valid, correct data that can be used to make good decisions. I'm not sure the qualifier "always" is the best idea. What if we only had false data? Would false data still be the key?

Transparency - are we talking about clear communication from administrators, with nothing withheld? I might agree with that. That is... assuming the administrators use valid data to form their messages.

 

[Entre Eyes]

Let's clarify though. Data is "the key" if it is good, valid, correct data that can be used to make good decisions. I'm not sure the qualifier "always" is the best idea. What if we only had false data? Would false data still be the key?

Transparency - are we talking about clear communication from administrators, with nothing withheld? I might agree with that. That is... assuming the administrators use valid data to form their messages.

You are absolutely correct on all!
We need YOU at the frontlines.

 

[ChrisV]

Note: the data from the OP is from March 6th; over a week ago.

It's gotten significantly worse



You can view your specific country here.

All US cases:





I highly suggest self-quarantining.

This is the most up-to-date data

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the C0VlD-19...

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,528,282 Cases and 2,915,012 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the C0VlD-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Jon L]

"Stay calm is bad advice / not helpful..."

I've decided to play devil's advocate here.

The idea that "stay calm" is bad advice seems fallacious to me. Calmness means taming the emotions. High emotional states lead people to panic, and in some situations, poor decisions.

If you are being chased by a wild animal, staying calm may not be a primary concern. In that case, you just need to run, and if a heightened emotional state focuses you on running, all well and good.

When you have days or weeks to come up with a strategy for dealing with changes in your environment, a heightened emotional state is counter-productive. People can not plan in the midst of panic. I am nearly certain that data scientists are not panicking in their data science offices as they work; how on Earth would they get anything done?

What data scientists need, and what everyone needs if they want to mitigate a bad situation, is a good dose of:

• reason
• logic
• analysis
• proper research
• evaluation
• planning
• anything-but-gonzo-emotions
• c a l m

Being calm has saved my life and other people's lives several times. Calm and aware. Calm, and observant. Calm, and reasonable. What good does it do anyone to be less than calm? Why should they expend energy on panic, rumination, stress vomiting, or other not-calm things?

But going crazy is so fun to watch. ...

 

[Jon L]

Note: the data from the OP is from March 6th; over a week ago.

It's gotten significantly worse

View attachment 31090

You can view your specific country here.

All US cases:

View attachment 31091

View attachment 31092

I highly suggest self-quarantining.

This is the most up-to-date data

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the C0VlD-19...

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,528,282 Cases and 2,915,012 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the C0VlD-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

That's a pretty perfect exponential graph. Scary.

 

[Saavedra]

yeah ... the thing is that you don't know how much time you're giving a person. Some people only have their lives extended by a few months. Others, in the same situation, are extended by many years. One guy I know was in the ICU for three months. At one point during his coma, he was given an hour (yeah ... 1 hour) to live. He recovered and is now expected to live for many years to come. A number of other people were admitted to the ICU during the same time frame for the same condition at his hospital. All of them died.

How do you make the call to not spend the money?

you are right how come i did not think about what could happen!?? miracles are the norm and unicorns make 90 years old people live to 130 if you spend 10000000 dollars on their cancer treatment


I've been so wrong all my life

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Mattie]

I think for myself, I'm not going to keep reading information. It's already becoming a reality around me. Now it's just staying focused on something else and remain positive and rely on my infection control knowledge from past experience as a Nurse Aide. I'd be more concerned about being educated on infection control with yourself and family.

Example:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUCqzJO_XTI

 

[Mattie]

I think for myself, I'm not going to keep reading information. It's already becoming a reality around me. Now it's just staying focused on something else and remain positive and rely on my infection control knowledge from past experience as a Nurse Aide. I'd be more concerned about being educated on infection control with yourself and family.

Example:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUCqzJO_XTI

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frhHp72qntE