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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

nitrousflame

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What makes you think this? What's your reasoning for this happening? Curious if you have a reasoning or if you're just blowing smoke.

IMO, this recent "crash" is simply a return to the overall long term trend, which appears to still be very much intact:

xja3o1A.png


I started getting into Bitcoin in early 2013 after the Cypriot crisis, which in my mind solidly legitimized a current and future market demand for such a technology, and that was only a single use case. Looking back, my biggest mistake/regret wasn't that I didn't sell at the peak back then, it was that I eventually stopped adding to my position between 2014-2017. As such, I plan to continue contributing to my blockfolio, but only in small chunks and with money that I don't need, and it likely won't be Bitcoin (BTC) since I don't like the direction that the core developers are taking it.
 
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James Fake

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Why wouldn't you be buying up a ton of crypto now if you think it will go up from 6k now to 50k in 2 years?

In the next month or two I think it will briefly reach an absolute low.. I'm hoping to grab some $3k coins.

Both real estate and internet seem to be healthy. Same old cycle and stages everything else goes through. I personally know a handful who experienced the dot com crash but have plenty of FANG stocks today. One in particular has a really nice yacht.

One thing to note: traditional assets aren't on an "accelerated pace" like crypto tends to move so it won't need 10 years to complete a certain cycle or stage. =)

Unless, like I said, something major changes.

I like to hear everyone's side.. what are some major changes you had in mind?

Maybe you're right or maybe you're wrong. Either way James Fend, I think you're crazy.

Haha.. perfect! As crazy as it sounds; from my experience... I take this as a sign of positivity that I am on a possible great path. :cool:
 

James Fake

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The reason I say this is because you are trying to predict dumb money.

Forgot to add this one.. From my observations; that's what all the biggest, baddest investment companies in the world specialize in. I'm just trying to follow what they do lol, seems to be working fine for them.
 

James Fake

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I started getting into Bitcoin in early 2013 after the Cypriot crisis, which in my mind solidly legitimized a current and future market demand for such a technology, and that was only a single use case. Looking back, my biggest mistake/regret wasn't that I didn't sell at the peak back then, it was that I eventually stopped adding to my position between 2014-2017. As such, I plan to continue contributing to my blockfolio, but only in small chunks and with money that I don't need, and it likely won't be Bitcoin (BTC) since I don't like the direction that the core developers are taking it.

Great insights! Agreed!

That logarithmic chart I think explains a ton for the long-term.

Too add.. another reason why I think Bitcoin is totally fine in the long-term and will eventually find an unbreakable support bottom and begin another cycle is:

This last "bubble crash" was nothing more than a correction of an over-inflated price aka "deemed value to the world right now".. not the technology or application.

Meaning Bitcoin is every bit as useful and utility as it was mid-2017 as a currency. In fact; adoption, awareness, and knowledge of how to actually use Bitcoin has only risen by folds. Cycle of 2017 was merely turning a word "Bitcoin" heard only between few to a B-list celebrity lol.. meaning it's kind of a household name but just not quite yet.

This only strengthens the core belief of speculation... which drove that crazy price in the first place. It will happen again I strongly believe within few years. =)

On a side note: The one negative I think that was exposed or discovered was the absolute need for the Lightning Network to be fully active and running to prevent that bottle-neck of transfer fees & speed.

Hint hint: I'd watch news & rumors of LN progress and development real closely over the next year or so.. it just might be the catalyst that triggers a few things. =)
 
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lowtek

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IMO, this recent "crash" is simply a return to the overall long term trend, which appears to still be very much intact:

xja3o1A.png


I started getting into Bitcoin in early 2013 after the Cypriot crisis, which in my mind solidly legitimized a current and future market demand for such a technology, and that was only a single use case. Looking back, my biggest mistake/regret wasn't that I didn't sell at the peak back then, it was that I eventually stopped adding to my position between 2014-2017. As such, I plan to continue contributing to my blockfolio, but only in small chunks and with money that I don't need, and it likely won't be Bitcoin (BTC) since I don't like the direction that the core developers are taking it.

Seeing the price evolution on a semi-log plot really puts into perspective the amount of volatility in that market.

For those that aren't familiar with these types of plots, something that grows exponentially will look like a straight line.

This plot shows multiple peaks and valleys, indicating that the exponent in the exponential growth changes over time.

Asserting that the price is reverting to a trend of exponential growth seems problematic for the long term. There are few processes in nature that can experience sustained exponential growth (or decline), as feedback loops often crop up, or the system "runs out of steam".
 

nitrousflame

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Asserting that the price is reverting to a trend of exponential growth seems problematic for the long term. There are few processes in nature that can experience sustained exponential growth (or decline), as feedback loops often crop up, or the system "runs out of steam".

I agree 100%, and I will be the first to add that past performance does not dictate future results. My personal bias is that the trend is in fact non linear, and will eventually level out into something more reasonable, relatively speaking of course.

I hesitated posting this originally because the numbers seem insane, but so too did even $10k not long ago. Anyway, perhaps it looks more like this:
X60M9Ii.png


It's still on the log scale and absurd, but at least it shows some level of slowing down.

At the end of the day, we can draw all sorts of trend lines and triangles, but we can't reliably predict the future. Period. If this space does end up crashing to zero (a real possibility), and your reaction is any worse than "oh well," you are over invested and should reduce your position or just cash out, IMO.
 

James Fake

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@nitrousflame - I really like that chart man. It's pretty much what's in my head long-term as well.

That $1M is an un-believeable number even to myself.. it's very hard to see that, but anything is possible.

There's a span of 3-4 years (in this chart 2022 to 2025) where it goes up $500,000.. that's also been on my mind when I try to day-dream possible scenarios. I can't see what the catalyst will be, but I think some kind of major happens like panic fomo of supply finally drying up or something..
 
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nitrousflame

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Also, for those trying to time the market, keep in mind that on average, Bitcoin was down every year with the exclusion of the top 10 day gains. That is, when moves happen, they tend to happen FAST.

This tendency makes for a sort of spiky "U" shape, even on the log chart:
3JOAxVxh.png


And it also makes the down years (yes, years) all the more difficult to, well, bear.
 

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I just dropped in another chunk of fiat. One of my largest purchases, tbh.

Buy when there's blood in the streets. When it starts getting real quiet, it's a buy time.
Same here. It's now or never. If it fails it fails, but at least I won't be on the sidelines watching.
 

Timmy C

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Get grilled on Ausfinance subreddit for saying to chuck a bit in crypto, everyone is so but hurt lol saying its a terrible investment, stay to your slowlane stocks then guys.

At least the slowlane is better than the sidewalk.

Gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
 

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Anyone in Coinex? They recently introduced a profit distribution token (CET) and it yields pretty good returns, in fact so good that I am getting nervous...
 

James Fake

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Same here. It's now or never. If it fails it fails, but at least I won't be on the sidelines watching.

In hindsight; great entry! Not sure which MA it's going to test with this relief rally, but imo; once it touches and "double-touches" with it's failed break, this is the area of capitulation where it will drop to $5k, maybe touch $4k or slightly less.

Anyone in Coinex? They recently introduced a profit distribution token (CET) and it yields pretty good returns, in fact so good that I am getting nervous...

To be totally honest; me reading this set off a ton of filter alerts lol. I'd be nervous as well.. that age old "too good to be true" saying haha.

Right now; the only crypto I'm trading with at all is BTC. I'm probably "missing out on alot" but I am also ignoring "second tier" coins like XLM, ADA, TRX, etc.
 
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James Fake

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On a side note: just releasing personal thought. Those who are in hold/long-term positions with LTC... my spidey senses tell me that as Coinbase inches closer and closer to adding additional coins (which I think may be within the next 12 months).. I think LTC will take a landslide in valuation & continue to landslide further as more and more coins are available in the next 1-2 years on Coinbase.

Not to say it's going to de-value now; I think it will continue as it's always done until that time comes.
 

Timmy C

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chill out guys chill chill, unless it drops to 0 i wont worry what it drops to ive got plenty of time to wait.
 

Timmy C

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and by the way if this drops to 0 and your reaction is anything other than oh well, you f*cked up and over invested.
 
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Unknown

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On a side note: just releasing personal thought. Those who are in hold/long-term positions with LTC... my spidey senses tell me that as Coinbase inches closer and closer to adding additional coins (which I think may be within the next 12 months).. I think LTC will take a landslide in valuation & continue to landslide further as more and more coins are available in the next 1-2 years on Coinbase.

Not to say it's going to de-value now; I think it will continue as it's always done until that time comes.
I would not want to touch LTC at this point. Charlie Lee just keeps bashing it, and BTC/ETH are both better holds.
 

TinyTim

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Introducing VeChain’s Drug and Vaccine Traceability Solution

"In combination with DNV GL, we introduce our Drug and Vaccine Traceability Solution. It will be deployed in Shanghai, serving 30 million individuals, and will soon be rolled out across China. It will be showcased at the China International Import Expo."

"DNV GL and VeChain have taken immense strides in advancing medical standards and security in China. The solutions created in their collaboration have been nurtured by the Chinese state, but they will not be isolated to China alone. The blockchain solutions engineered by DNV GL and VeChain will soon span the globe, as the products and solutions rolled out for China’s government and enterprises are only the initial components of a much larger plan."

"Their attendance is occuring at the specific request of the Chinese government, who wishes to highlight the state-backed collaboration with VeChain and DNV GL. President Xi Jinping will be in attendance."

Despite the market being incredibly bearish, VeChain's fundamentals are starting to become very clear.
 

James Fake

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I'm pasting this from a chat I am in so I may be jumping around a bit (sorry!)

LTC was a dud & never did a bull'ish breakout follow it used to do.. Didn't have much time as BTC never re-tested the 200MA line again from it's $8.5k "touch" + BTC didn't find support and track sideways, it just fell smh (likely from Winklevoss twins ETF fail news)

With that said; I do think that BTC has a chance from 4hr candles to go up to $7.7k'ish. Where I am going to most likely go short as I think in this upcoming week or weeks, we will see some dumps especially as a mid-August ETF possibility will likely get rejected. There is a small chance that it will go past $7.7k so the safer side of the trade would be to not enter a short unless it confirms a complete breakdown dump (cause even if you don't catch it at $7.7k or whatever, the dumps should carry all the way to the $5k price before next relief rally.

I'm pretty bull'ish & inside of ETC at the moment as Coinbase is finishing up testing to add it on on the 7 or 8th and then possibly opening up ETC transfers into the exchange; then they will open up trading a few days after. I think it has a few more pump legs up over this weekend and next week. I will likely keep it on Binance and just sell when it feels toppy if everything goes to plan & not try to transfer it into Coinbase than sell.

After this next round of dumps I am thinking will happen; it should carry us to a possible $5,100 price sometime in the next 1-3 months. This is my target price.. I do think we are nearing the bottom... and I think $5100 will get hit a few times as BTC moves within a range of $5 to $6k for a few months before it really starts the very beginning stages of a bull. Likely 2019 from the looks of it now.

Oh, various signs of me thinking we are near the bottom after this next dumps: More and more have left crypto entirely, the few left is a mix of "crypto is dead" and overly-optimistic bulls. I think the next round of dumps will likely wipe most of the remaining bulls out looking for the quick bucks.. and the low volatility following for months will make them leave.. Leaving only the people who believe and hold onto their Bitcoin for dear life because they believe in the technology, movement, and see Bitcoin as owning a piece of land, not fast money.

News (bad or good) seems to have less effect on the market. Volume is fairly low in volatility.. just waiting for price action to follow suit with the low volatility. Big money is about to move in and accumulate hard here in mid to late 2018.

Note: BTC to $7.6-$7.7k ish because from 1day candles: I think price might want to re-test 20MA line again before dumps. BTC's 1day MACD crossed over from the top which is a fairly strong indication that an overall downtrend is about to continue & keep going.. 1week and 1month candles still look bad imo.

As with everything... make sure you determine and setup stop losses where a confirmation that any of what I mentioned fails. Including stops if Bitcoin fails to even go towards $7.7k'ish; if Bitcoin does go upward & it shoots past $7.7k; if ETC doesn't go up, etc.
 
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James Fake

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Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 6.29.01 AM.png
5 hours later and it looks like BTC is likely to fail the bottom trend line.. a possible dump might come sooner than later. I would declare the $7.7k prediction a failed trade at this point since it didn't go exactly as planned. Although it could "fake out" and go back up, or dump a little bit and then go back up, etc.. this is too high of a risk area to sit inside any trade imo until there's a proven movement with volume to confirm it.

I'd still consider ETC a possible trade.. it may or may not seperate from what BTC is doing (although I lean towards not since this market is pretty sensitive at the moment). A break and close below $12 would invalidate an upward trend for ETC over the next week. Price action and volume so far have been good that I think the worse it would do is range sideways in a slow uptrend with a small chance of it continuing a few more pumps to clear $17 in the next days maybe.

As always; do your own research and place stops where you feel comfortable at and feel would confirm the trade was proven wrong.
 

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Your predicted drop is coming sooner than expected. Blood in the streets yet again. Bitcoin down 70% from its all-time high; most other coins are even worse than that.
 
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Keep an eye on XRP. It's looking like it may be building up for a breakout. My personal concern is that if this build up is based only on the JP Morgan news, it's a weak reason.

Just a heads up.
 
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Timmy C

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Taxes almost done for the year, after that I'll make some purchases I think more BTC, nano.
 
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You can already see a bunch of the money leaving BTC and heading towards ETH and Altcoins. No more free coins for new investors.

I transfered my BTC over to ETH and will sell the ETH peak/BTC dip after the next few days

Bitcoin is forming a base around $6,500 US Funds. It should be interesting to see if new investors will gamble if the trend is upward again. I played BTC on the huge upside move only selling many times on the move towards the highest peak. Transaction costs are too high now to make any serious money in this don't know which way the market is going now.
 

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Hey guys, reviving this old thread or rather just updating it. I honestly been out of the market more than being in any position. I caught some of the good mid-term rallys but I leave those positions pretty quickly once it shows top weakness.. also; I am definitely not in an accumulation mode at the moment.

With that said; I want to share a bold prediction I made 6 weeks ago & still sticking to:

That Bitcoin will hit $2,500 within the next month(s).

- - - - - - - - - -

Here's also a copy/paste from a crypto chat covering a summary if you hate videos:

I posted the YouTube video link on my channel but wanted to post a quick summary of what I think may happen:

1) Tether continues to crash; not immediately straight down but recovery, weakness dump, recovery, weakness dump, etc.

2) Those in Tether's safe haven continue converting into coins (causing short to mid term rally in crypto possibly); but these people are only buying coins to move into an exchange (likely away from the big player Binance into Coinbase, etc.) that they can sell into fiat. They will hold their coins as they see the crypto market going up, but these people WILL take profits and most definitely will not take a loss of any kind once Bitcoin tops and begins a dump.

3) Stock market will continue to show and give warning signs of weakness and big bear including a 2019 recession.

4) Mt Gox people will be getting their coins back over the next months. So now a shitload of coins (160,000 whole Bitcoins) in the hands of people who can possibly sell (right now they can't)

Theory: This all times up perfectly. Bitcoin begins it's dump from people converting from Tether as they lose confidence and 100% uncertainty. (uncertainty stage has begun for Tether); this dump likely touches $5k somewhere followed by a rally but finds very strong resistance at $6kish. At the same time; stock markets continue sell offs and people waking up to a very possible global recession on the horizon. At the same time; Mt Gox people start getting coins in their hands. At the same time, Tether continues on a path to implosion.

With those three: stock market, tether implosion, 160,000 Bitcoins in the hands of those who will not be the least afraid to go ahead and take profit at $5k levels as they see the weaknesses overall.... all equals Bitcoin dumping below $5,000 (breaking the big massive trend line drawn from 2008 to 2014 to now) and then followed by the quick and fast sell-off to $2,500 over a fairly short period of time (of course some bounces here and there along the way but DOWN). As $2,500 Bitcoin happens; it bounces very quickly with great buy volume back up to $3-4k but by then the recession has come into early fruition.. causing low volatility for upwards of a year.. crypto will actually lead the way out of the late stages of the recession beginning it's slow upward decent (aka the final psy stage in a bubble crash, the "dis-belief" stage) as no one will be buying or believing in crypto while also getting face punched by recession's effects on life.
 
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James Fake

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Also; this is my TradingView chart I posted 6 weeks ago when I spotted things might head towards this direction: "The Black Swan of Bitcoin: Road To $2500 Capitulation (MT GOX?)" by trader dragon — published September 17, 2018

If you hit the play button (you got to be on a web browser and not mobile).. you will see how it follows along exactly as price is in a very undecided stage with very low volume as we approach the big long term trendline that I mentioned in one of my major points. Everything is timing up and aligning alittle too well for this to be a definite possibility.
 

Timmy C

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Also; this is my TradingView chart I posted 6 weeks ago when I spotted things might head towards this direction: "The Black Swan of Bitcoin: Road To $2500 Capitulation (MT GOX?)" by trader dragon — published September 17, 2018

If you hit the play button (you got to be on a web browser and not mobile).. you will see how it follows along exactly as price is in a very undecided stage with very low volume as we approach the big long term trendline that I mentioned in one of my major points. Everything is timing up and aligning alittle too well for this to be a definite possibility.

I hope your wrong but you could be spot on. I have been doing the opposite and started accumulating, let's see how it goes.
 

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I hope your wrong but you could be spot on. I have been doing the opposite and started accumulating, let's see how it goes.

Timmy, yes very true. I personally hate being a bear... me being an overly-optimistic person on almost everything, this goes directly against my own energy lol.

However; logic over-rules all emotions for me when it comes to investment trading. There is great counter-argument as to this current range being the bottom which I thoroughly looked at too. Weighing both out side by side, the play with the highest edge of winning is 'staying out the market entirely' regardless if you're bull or bear in this range lol.

But imo; as long as you manage your risk exposure with your accumulation and keep the total disaster scenario in the back of the mind; your accumulation play should be fairly good favor as far as risk/reward goes.

Hmm... XRP is one I am on the fence about whether to accumulate or not. That recent big green volume candle is very convincing that it has a good chance to hold a floor sooner or later.
 
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Timmy C

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Timmy, yes very true. I personally hate being a bear... me being an overly-optimistic person on almost everything, this goes directly against my own energy lol.

However; logic over-rules all emotions for me when it comes to investment trading. There is great counter-argument as to this current range being the bottom which I thoroughly looked at too. Weighing both out side by side, the play with the highest edge of winning is 'staying out the market entirely' regardless if you're bull or bear in this range lol.

But imo; as long as you manage your risk exposure with your accumulation and keep the total disaster scenario in the back of the mind; your accumulation play should be fairly good favor as far as risk/reward goes.

Hmm... XRP is one I am on the fence about whether to accumulate or not. That recent big green volume candle is very convincing that it has a good chance to hold a floor sooner or later.

Yeh I get what you mean I don't think anyone really knows where the market goes but I am being systematic with my buys next buy is in 3 months from now. I am just accumulating what I believe with survive the bear, trying to hold only quality projects. I donno about xrp TBH haven't done any research on it and I have enough coins at this stage. We will see what happens!! I'm not worried, I tend to do the opposite of others like to buy it low and when market sentiment is depressed.

I hold Bitcoin,ethereum,nano,vechain,stellar,cardano,omisego just in case anyone wants to fill my bags :p

You also have to take into account CGT tax aswell that can always effect profits if you don't hold more than a year. Well it does in Australia.
 
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For instance, I don’t care a chip about the fate of Bitcoin, and I’m not worried about the price it will have. I have already managed to earn fairly well on it.
 

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