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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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James Fake

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And they are patient af.

And by "they".. you mean Millennials haha who grew up engrained in instant gratification culture. Let's not even mention the generation right after me growing up in even more tech luxury lol.. the easiest money grab of 'money shifting from the patient & most disciplined to the least patient & least disciplined' in history!

You and @DrWumbo make great points. I agree with both of ya'll in that some accumulation has happened by big money as they can really only buy on the way down without being spotted. However; I think most of the big money is waiting for the drops from $4,500 to $2,500 with their buy orders.

After that, they will try to accumulate more once a true bottom is hit and it ranges for ______ year(s). I guess the only thing we don't see eye to eye on is the 'blank' of years. I lean towards at least 1 before we see some really early signals of a possible early & weak bull uptrend.. at the absolute earliest, I'd say maybe (a strong maybe) May 2019.

I think seeing how the global financial markets progress over the next months will tell us a lot.
 

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James Fake

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I think one thing to keep an eye on is Google Trends w/ regard to Bitcoin and other crypto search terms: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin

Great insight! I took a glance; zoomed out to past 5 years. Saw the 2014-2015 crash go from low interest to a peak around "11" and then crashing back down and staying the "2" range. This, to me, is further confirmation that the current "11" level we are at now is just the folks seeing what is causing the crash and then we go to "2" and stay there for a year or two.. :inpain:
 

AA1980

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Lots of knowledge being dropped in here. This is exactly how markets work. Smart money accumulates at cheap prices. They sell big lots to drop prices. Buy in smaller amounts. Put reports out there that crypto is dead so it falls further and further. And then they accumulate for massive massive runs. The dumb money buys once it’s on the cover of the WSJ.


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AA1980

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Typically you want to wait until the charts build a long, right curling base.


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DrWumbo

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I think that will only lead to price stability.

I hope I'm wrong but I think we will never see something like 2017 again because Wild West times are over in crypto. Regulation is more and more a fact day by day.

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While more regulations come into play, it further legitimizes the crypto investment scene. ETFS, custodial services, big Wall Street companies getting involved, easier buying points to the market, and China is still seriously investing in the scene and getting their regulations in place before allowing it. No space will be seriously considered legitimate without these in play. A lot of serious "crypto" people hate this, but from an investment standpoint, it's amazing
 

AA1980

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My concern is that the government comes in and just bans it.


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Jeff Noel

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I think one thing to keep an eye on is Google Trends w/ regard to Bitcoin and other crypto search terms: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin
With that in mind, looking at the short term interest (since if you look at long term, it just recently started gaining people's interest again), we can see that most queries come from smaller countries. I don't want to discriminate people from these countries at all, it's just what I'm looking at.

As of right now, the big pockets from USA put BTC on ice for a little while.

upload_2018-11-22_11-44-20.png

USA is 35th, with UK and Canada in the top 20 and China being #7
The amount of queries must not be extremely high lately to establish a trend.
 

DrWumbo

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My concern is that the government comes in and just bans it.


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There's too much money to be made for them to ban it. You can see major companies, like Goldman, Fidelity, Bakkt (whom is owned by ICE, operator of NYSE) and their hopeful ETF/401K crypto investment. China is still out of the scene for now, but allowing crypto companies to still operate within the country if the follow their rules.

I'm not invested in BTC. I currently hold 5 different coins, 3 of them are from China. Reason being is that they are solving legitimate, commercial problems and are designing the platform to comply with governments, especially China's.
 

AA1980

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There's too much money to be made for them to ban it. You can see major companies, like Goldman, Fidelity, Bakkt (whom is owned by ICE, operator of NYSE) and their hopeful ETF/401K crypto investment. China is still out of the scene for now, but allowing crypto companies to still operate within the country if the follow their rules.

I'm not invested in BTC. I currently hold 5 different coins, 3 of them are from China. Reason being is that they are solving legitimate, commercial problems and are designing the platform to comply with governments, especially China's.

Which ones


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DrWumbo

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Everyone keep an eye on BTC hashrate. The fall below 350 is eye catching. If it stays there too long expect even more of a downward price movement.

Again, my current analysis doesn't see BTC hitting that $2500 @James Fend has written about in depth with good reason, but with further falling requires more analysis!

Again, have a close eye on the hashrate!
 

DrWumbo

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Which ones


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NEO, ONT, ELA. Great projects with big support, legitimate problems to solve, and with support from companies/Chinese Gov.
 

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AA1980

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NEO, ONT, ELA. Great projects with big support, legitimate problems to solve, and with support from companies/Chinese Gov.

Ill take a close look. Thanks!


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MMatt

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BTC dropped to $3600 this morning. I am still waiting patiently for a buy opportunity. The market is still in an overall downward trend and until that shows signs of reversal, I'm staying on the sidelines.
 

DrWumbo

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Hash rate has spiked up
 

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million$$$smile

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BTC has jumped 20% in 24 hours.

Have been contemplating buying again the past few days.

Finally pulled the trigger on a small amount again.

Is this a start of a small run?
 

steelandchrome

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BTC has jumped 20% in 24 hours.

Have been contemplating buying again the past few days.

Finally pulled the trigger on a small amount again.

Is this a start of a small run?
Who knows, speculation on big buy orders from what I read. I'm still holding and have a long way to go back to even :/

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Roli

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BTC has jumped 20% in 24 hours.

Is this a start of a small run?

No way to tell as BTC is not linked to any tangible real world actions. However I have a little theory which seems to have held thus far, so if it does keep going up sell at between $7-8000.
 

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MNejc

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Purchased at 11k, and 3,5k euros and am waiting for the price to get around to 20k then I guess I’m out.
 

nitrousflame

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BTC has jumped 20% in 24 hours.

Have been contemplating buying again the past few days.

Finally pulled the trigger on a small amount again.

Is this a start of a small run?

IMO, I think it's all a matter of time horizons. In the short term (weeks/months) I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to ~$6k and then back to ~$3k or slightly lower at some point, briefly. If your time horizon is more on the order of several months to years, then anywhere in that range would be a pretty decent entry I think.

@Roli I'm curious to hear more about your theory. I too have a theory, though it's nothing really unique. Basically, I think much of this latest spike can be attributed to a short squeeze resulting in the liquidation and covering of said shorts, which of course then pushes the price even higher. Yet even so, the price has managed to push past the 200 daily average, but stopped just shy of the 200 monthly average... If the price closes/holds above the 200 monthly average, then perhaps we're in for another move higher and/or will begin to establish a longer term upward trend.

DISCLAIMER: I do not trade BTC/crypto with short time horizons (e.g. day trading) so I probably don't know what I'm talking about. That said, I am still very much bullish with longer time frames and have started accumulating over the last few months again.
 

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@TKDTyler - Ah yes, Btc will definitely take a short dip due to "no new coins".. I do think the amount of money that will be pouring into Bitcoin due to increased confidence over the week will fight this dip. Mainly because there was so many new investors scared off by the 2X fork & just waiting to see what would happen first before they bought in.
Hi James! I made some money on the long upside that Bitcoin had last year. Today It SEEMS that Bitcoin has found a bottom and is slowing making it's way to the $5,000 USD level. I'm still not buying more BTC yet. Do you think that previous investors will sellout as soon as the BTC price reaches their own break even point? What do you think?
 

Roli

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@Roli I'm curious to hear more about your theory. I too have a theory, though it's nothing really unique. Basically, I think much of this latest spike can be attributed to a short squeeze resulting in the liquidation and covering of said shorts, which of course then pushes the price even higher. Yet even so, the price has managed to push past the 200 daily average, but stopped just shy of the 200 monthly average... If the price closes/holds above the 200 monthly average, then perhaps we're in for another move higher and/or will begin to establish a longer term upward trend.

DISCLAIMER: I do not trade BTC/crypto with short time horizons (e.g. day trading) so I probably don't know what I'm talking about. That said, I am still very much bullish with longer time frames and have started accumulating over the last few months again.

Okay, well this theory first came about from when they opened up the CME long/short mechanism. At the time I predicted it would be bad for Bitcoin, because ultimately there was a lot of negative press coming from the bankers. Even Goldman Sucks which went from completely deriding it, to opening up a small fund for their clients.

So I predicted that when they entered the market they would find a way to screw everyone over, because they ultimately see crypto as a threat, and they control the money and they don't want to lose that control.

My theory is that the banks are buying shed loads of btc and then shorting it (if this is illegal, they are finding ways round that illegality), then when the right time comes they dump their coin crashing the price and thus cashing in on their short.

This is not as risky a strategy as it sounds because of the nature of the btc market.

What is the overall theory of btc holders?

HODL!

Unlike other financial markets crypto heads talk about holding their assets regardless of what happens in the market.

Also unlike other markets it is very difficult to sell large amounts of btc without moving the price. For example if I wanted to sell a million dollars worth of Chrysler shares nobody but me and my broker would notice. However if I tried to sell a million dollars worth of btc all at once I could single handedly cause a price fluctuation just by dumping it on Kraken or one of the smaller exchanges.

So even though the market cap of btc is pretty large, the active players in the market are small, I believe Kraken and Coinbase are the largest exchanges and their 24 hour volumes can be measured in the thousands.

So yeah, the banks are freaked out about btc and at first they tried to ridicule it, then they joined the party and now they're ruining it.

With all that being said, there's still plenty of room for day/week traders to make some money, however for long term investment I think it sucks.

The money will be in the BaaS (blockchain as a service) coins, in particular I'm keeping tabs on EOS as they seem to have a good handle on blockchain speeds and implementing games onto the chain.

Steem (which I'm invested in) could also be good, its flagship dapp Steemit is kind of dying now, however they have the two top blockchain games in Steem Monsters and Drugwars.

Dan Larimer (creator of Steem and EOS) announced the other day that he was going to create Steemit 2.0 on the EOS chain. I have a feeling that it will be bigger, better and shinier than his first attempt and there will be more social features to boot.

At the moment I use btc as a temporary place holder as I buy and sell other cryptos...

I hope I'm wrong about bitcoin, and if it goes past the $9000 mark and stabilises somewhere around the $10k mark then I'll admit my theory is wrong. If however I see it continually bounce between about $3k and $8k I'll believe I'm right.

DISCLAIMER: Even though it sounds like it above, I am not a conspiracy theorist, I don't believe in the Deep State, alien pyramids, or that 9/11 was an inside job. :p:clench:
 

nitrousflame

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So even though the market cap of btc is pretty large...

Thanks for putting your theory out there.

The main thing that sticks out for me, and really ties it all together, is the market cap and the misconceptions surrounding it. I used to think that in order for the market cap to increase by one million dollars, that one million new, additional dollars had to enter the market. It seems that this line of thinking is rather common as well. However, this is akin to assuming no friction when running a physics calculation, except in this case, the "friction" is liquidity. When liquidity is low, a $1M injection (or withdrawal) from the market may end up moving the market by far, far more than $1M.
 

broswoodwork

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Oof....

Wish I didn't even find this thread, to be honest. I only pop in a few times a year, and I was out building my small boring irrelevant business during the crypto bull run.

There's a lot of big names in here. People who's advice, unbeknownst to them, has been critical in me starting my journey. I hope I don't get blasted by too many of them (but I probably will)...

Before anyone says, "hindsight is 20/20", I could've bought into btc at under $100, but passed because beneath the smokescreen of "future world reserve currency", new paradigm, only 21million, etc, etc it was a digital hashmark, devoid of use or intrinsic value, that nobody aside from drug dealers would accept as an exchange of value, and even they wouldn't take it at the rates people were buying in for.

I couldn't afford to gamble, and I dislike gambling in general. Yes, people will say I could've cashed out for $2million at the all time high, but if I bought, I would've been fully cashed out incrementally by $700.

To the point, alot of young impressionable people pass through here looking to get ahead in life, and when they see legendary contributors zealously advocating what amounts to a hot new black jack strategy, they may do ridiculous things, like get a second mortgage to buy hadhmarks or what have you.

I understand most of the people contributing here have a lot more to play than I probably ever will; thus, never gamble what you can't afford to lose holds true, but what about the kids who's understanding of the principles laid down in the books are little less firm and shouldn't be gambling anything?

I don't know... I'm ready to be called an idiot and a**hole (possibly banned). I can take it.

Btw. @lewj24 deserves a special badge of some variety next to his name, because I wasn't seeing anyone else advancing the Greater Fool argument.
 

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