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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Lucky Chevy

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Yikes! Great buying opportunity, or the start of a further slide [emoji848] ... Maybe I should put the rest of my money I brought to Vegas into some ETH instead [emoji23]

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Yep, I got out of all of my crypto positions with a bit of a haircut and bought some Bitcoin @ $8k with thoughts of dumping it at $11k. Looks like we are in for a rough ride.

Volatility spiked when big money entered the game. Large firms are content to pump and dump constantly with small profits on each transaction. I can't dedicate quite that much time to it so I'm limited to playing the general trends.

It's tough to take losses of any kind when the broader market is posting record gains. It's starting to feel like a balloon. I'm thinking about transferring all of my holdings into more stable securities but greed is a terrible thing. Of course, I was thinking the market was unsustainable since Obama's re-election and here we are.
 

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James Fake

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Skimming through this thread.. I cringe at myself & amazed at myself at the same time. WTF... Right af. Wrong af. Right and wrong at the same time.

I think overall; my gut feelings were right.. timing was HORRIBLY wrong.

I know I haven't posted in awhile.. but just FYI; I am still in crypto. Have matured a crap ton as a trader.. I'm still eye'ing that really big obnoxious goal. So much to update on...

I might turn it into a progress thread as I plan to re-guritate my backup speech for the summit onto the forum here very soon. Maybe even in video format :wideyed:.. on the flip side; as I was gaining some public following for my crypto stuff, I learned a crap ton on there too. And had to do a major pivot recently but... yeah. More on that later..

When I do that; I will still update this thread with fundamental analysis of my opinion on the market. :smile:
 

MMatt

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How are all you guys doing during the current rebound? My portfolio is up 100+% percent in the last few weeks, so anyone hodling solid projects should be pretty happy right now.
 

steelandchrome

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How are all you guys doing during the current rebound? My portfolio is up 100+% percent in the last few weeks, so anyone hodling solid projects should be pretty happy right now.
I'm up over 120% from initial investment but 50% off of my highest point when BTC was at $19k+, ETH at $1400+, and LTC at $400+.... If I would have doubled down at the dip I'd be really happy, but doing ok either way.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Unknown

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How are all you guys doing during the current rebound? My portfolio is up 100+% percent in the last few weeks, so anyone hodling solid projects should be pretty happy right now.

I'm still down about 30% from ATH.
 

nitrousflame

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How are all you guys doing during the current rebound? My portfolio is up 100+% percent in the last few weeks, so anyone hodling solid projects should be pretty happy right now.

Up about ~1000% on cost basis, but still down ~40% from ATH. Portfolio is ~66% BTC.
 

MMatt

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What is everyone's take of the current market?

Double down while prices are low or prepare for more downward movement?

I have considered adding to my portfolio but am sitting on the sidelites for now.
 
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Guest3722A

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What is everyone's take of the current market?
Dead cat bounce.
Double down while prices are low or prepare for more downward movement?

I have considered adding to my portfolio but am sitting on the sidelites for now.
To me it looks like BTC seems to be the leader that the majority follows so with using the BTCUSD/Bitfinex chart, I'd be watching for the 6000-6300 range. Not saying it will get there because who really knows, but that area is where the support is right now and if I wanted to average down (on this one or any of the other flavors), that's probably a point where I would strongly consider, provided that it holds support. If it doesn't get there, and moves up, I'd be watching for a breakout above the February highs as that would be a very strong indication of a trend change from the last 5 months. I would definitely add there.
 

GoGetter24

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What is everyone's take of the current market?

Double down while prices are low or prepare for more downward movement?

I have considered adding to my portfolio but am sitting on the sidelites for now.

The market is consolidating around $7,500 US for Bitcoin. There is still downward pressure for now anyways. I`m sitting on the sidelines to see which direction the market will be taking either another steep upside or a bearish slow decline. Don`t hold your breath.
 
G

Guest3722A

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Dead cat bounce.

To me it looks like BTC seems to be the leader that the majority follows so with using the BTCUSD/Bitfinex chart, I'd be watching for the 6000-6300 range. Not saying it will get there because who really knows, but that area is where the support is right now and if I wanted to average down (on this one or any of the other flavors), that's probably a point where I would strongly consider, provided that it holds support. If it doesn't get there, and moves up, I'd be watching for a breakout above the February highs as that would be a very strong indication of a trend change from the last 5 months. I would definitely add there.
Alright, this thing's hitting support. I'm keeping an eye on the 5300-5500ish level. Who knows if it'll go there, but if it does, I would think that there would be a higher than average probability of it bouncing back to support.
 

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MarekvBeek

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Yeah! Support levels are being tested right now.
Still Bitfinex holds a 800+ BTC buy wall at $6.000.
It's been the 2nd time this month that it is testing support. Seen the sharp decline, downtrend, and weak rebound, I believe it will soon go under the $6.000. But I will only put my money on the line when it hits $6.000. It will be an obvious short for me.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Interesting how all the crypto chatter on this forum died down to coincide with the downtrend and muddling...
 

GPM

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I noticed that as well MJ. As far as myself, I think that this tech is just the start. What we have now might not be around, but something is going to rise from it and end up being a staple in "future world".

Personally, I have gotten in to mining. I think it is fun to fiddle with computers. I got into mining with a few GPU's on Linux, and have since turned that few into 15. Putting together a 12+ card system over the next few months that will a little more than double my hashrate.

I have made some cash buying used GPU's and then selling the same ones for more, and mining with them while holding them. So that is nice. The plan is to hold the GPU's for a year or so, and then sell them and use that money combined with selling some crypto to upgrade to the latest and greatest when it comes out. Even if Crypto goes to 0, I still have the hardware. Personally this has been an entertaining and rewarding past-time, and I plan on continuing with this for the foreseeable future.
 

TinyTim

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What is everyone's take of the current market?

Double down while prices are low or prepare for more downward movement?

I have considered adding to my portfolio but am sitting on the sidelites for now.

Total market sentiment is bearish among the retail investor. But saying that, I've never been more confident for my only buy, VeChain. Just 8 days till mainnet launch and we can actually witness a crypto racking up a load of transactions from many huge companies (Much more than Eth, although it may take some time to get the clients set-up). To be honest, I'm just accumulating as the prices drop.
 

msufan

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It's hard for me to take crypto seriously when all of the various coins increase and decrease in value at approximately the same rate. When the market is unable to distinguish between Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, Ripple, and ZCash (to cite 4 examples), the market is irrational.
 
G

Guest3722A

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It looks to me like support didn't hold. Watching for the 5000-5500 level. May or may not get there but I'm thinking an asymmetric change is most likely on the way.
 

TinyTim

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It's hard for me to take crypto seriously when all of the various coins increase and decrease in value at approximately the same rate. When the market is unable to distinguish between Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, Ripple, and ZCash (to cite 4 examples), the market is irrational.

That's because the market is incredibly irrational, and frankly, unsophisticated. You only have to look at the top 10 cryptos (based on MC), bit of a sh*t show really.
 

steelandchrome

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I can't speak for others, but I think a lot of investors right now are hunkered down in "wait and see" mode. Personally, I'm holding a bunch of stuff that is profitable, but want to wait until I've held a year to qualify for long-term capital gains. I'm also holding a bunch of stuff that I think will go up in value at some point in the future, whether that be next week or next year.

Basically, a couple months ago, I asked myself, "Am I willing to hold this for the next 5 years?" If the answer was no, I sold it. If the answer was yes (or if it was close to the 1 year hold period), I kept it.

I think a lot of people are doing the same thing or just sitting on the sidelines waiting for an indication of where the market will go longer-term...
Exactly. I'm in the same boat kinda. I didn't sell anything, but I did convert some alts back some to ETH and LTC. I am still in the green by about 20% over the last year but still well off the highs. Not putting in new money right now, but not taking any off the table either.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

MMatt

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My portfolio is nearing its all-time low. I only invested what I could afford to lose, so I will not be selling.
 

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GPM

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I have not put any fiat into coins directly, but I am upping my GPU purchases. I can literally get cards now for 60% of what I was paying for them 4 months ago, so I am taking advantage of that. I have the sneaky suspicion that once crypto hits the news again on its next rise that hardware prices are going to rise once again.
 

James Fake

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Interesting how all the crypto chatter on this forum died down to coincide with the downtrend and muddling...

** raises hand ** lol

I have been MIA as during a bear market; the only trades I'm doing is a) no trade or b) position trading (aka riding big trends).. anything smaller than 1day candles will get you killed!

I share the same sentiment as the others stated before me. I am mostly out of the market, although I have been watching and analyzing along the way. I don't see an immediate bull coming as after a major bear like this; the market needs to "recover".

Along the way; retail investors are mostly gone. It's just a long-waiting game of big money aka whales aka managed money by smarter traders than I, just finding different levels to accumulate. Big money is used to investing in much slower markets, and have much more patience in their DNA. Since they are determining how we move going forward with Bitcoin's price, I can see this completing a full "bear" cycle which is very similar to a "bubble crash" chart.

I do think we eventually get to an absolute low of $3k, although it will quickly get bought up and likely hover in the $4k's with little volatility for months and months.

There will still be trading opportunities for big position trading along the way (like a possible bounce from $5,000ish), but for the average retail investor like most of us here. I would just stay out.

Good news: whether it be 2019 or 2020, we will see an enormous & irrational massive bull like we experienced in late 2017 again. Looking very very forward to it & taking the things I learned!

I'm focused 95% of my time on FBA, Feedbackz, and other things. I do want to make some trading videos on the market and sentiment, etc. - but it's near the middle of the stack of to-do's so I'll see if I ever get there haha.

p.s. - @JScott You won our challenge!
 

lewj24

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Good news: whether it be 2019 or 2020, we will see an enormous & irrational massive bull like we experienced in late 2017 again. Looking very very forward to it & taking the things I learned!

What makes you think this? What's your reasoning for this happening? Curious if you have a reasoning or if you're just blowing smoke.
 

Elif

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idk what it's worth, but i listened to a podcast last week and Charlie Shrem (some guy in that famous bitcoin documentary) stated that if just 1% of money in gold went to bitcoin, one btc would be worth $1m.
 

James Fake

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What makes you think this? What's your reasoning for this happening? Curious if you have a reasoning or if you're just blowing smoke.

haha.. I rarely blow smoke. To me, it's very obvious. Adoption of actual currency use will only rise especially with tech advancement as infrastructure now can't really support it. Too much big money & companies in it now.

My main reason? Greed.
 

lewj24

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haha.. I rarely blow smoke. To me, it's very obvious. Adoption of actual currency use will only rise especially with tech advancement as infrastructure now can't really support it. Too much big money & companies in it now.

My main reason? Greed.

Okay. I need to sort this out in my mind.

So you believe in 1 or 2 years there will be another bull market like the one we saw at the end of 2017 because:

People will start using it for actual transactions instead of using fiat currency because:

There will be advances in technology and infrastructure that will support it and because big money and companies will exit the market.

And then you said your main reason is greed. And this is the issue. You could care less about using it as money right? Well everyone else is thinking the same thing. The bubble we saw last year was because of one thing. Greed. You said it yourself. People don't use crypto to buy things. They use crypto to hope they get rich. Everyone wanted a piece of the pie and it exploded in value. And then, like every greedy bubble in history, it came back down.

In my opinion the only way that type of bull market comes again is for the same reason it came before. Greed. Not changes in infrastructure. Not big money exiting. Not currency adoption. Unless there are some major changes in the way cryptos work, if it goes up again it will be because people want to get rich easy.
 

James Fake

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@lewj24 - great points! Yup.. so my thoughts are:

1) People actually use Bitcoin for real life transactions today. I have several times personally.. the most common is Btc and Eth.

Over the years, I don't see this adoption slowing down. Although we would be way far away from any major adoption or usage until tech catches up. Remember the days when the internet only had dial up speed? The internet was limited to the tech at the time. But since broadband became available almost every where; the internet exploded.

A few tech like peer to peer internet and other de-centralized tech structures need to be in place before crypto-currency will truly flourish (aka governments can have zero hand in limiting crypto buying, selling, etc.). I'm thinking the world is going this way over the next 10-20 years.


2) Until the day crypto gets it's un-invented tech infrastructure in place (aka broadband to internet); it will be pure speculative. (but speculation is where the billionaires are made). However; without going too deep into that.. I'd like to clarify my greed reasoning driving another big bull cycle.

It won't happen soon (it might though, anything is possible lol) but likely not. It may take a smooth 1-2 or 3 years. My personal opinion; the year 2020 is a extremely psychological number year. I think this is the year that Bitcoin makes it super-bull again (by super bull, I am meaning like $50k or more). And then... Pop lol.

But going back to greed.

Big money aka very smart and experienced investment companies have entered crypto. These guys are top-notch; they know human psychology very well and have been through it all.

Any price from above $5k'ish this last 2017 cycle were all made of retail investors. The big money aka whales all accumulated from around $2k to $4k. $5k and above were all fomo buyers aka greed.

Now, everyone didn't lose from this last cycle. There were lots of of these retail investors who made money and got out. But most importantly...

Almost every single person who put in any money into Btc or crypto this last bull got a taste of blood.

You can bet your butt off 99% of those who went into crypto; whether they won or lost... will be right back in it the minute when it's very obvious Bitcoin is in the middle of another massive bull.

This taste for blood was only the tip. Most of these last retail investors were the early-adopters.. most of the early-majority did not get into crypto but well heard about it. This next go-around; the entire world knows what Bitcoin is capable of.

Everybody thinks they will be smarter this time.. by either:

1) Getting out sooner and staying out.
2) Not missing getting in extremely early like $3-4k from last 2017.
3) Being more aggressive during big bull.

Most of us retail traders from 2017 will likely nail #1 and #3 down in 2019 or 2020 or whatever. Right now; retail traders are trying to nail down #2 (which in my mind is actually un-necessary lol but another story)

NOW... remember that early-majority? That chunk of people is wayyyy bigger than early-adopters. These are your more conservative people; you can bet they sat on the sidelines watching the hysteria and the bear. But being a first-timer in crypto; they will experience and make the same mistakes us 2017'ers made.. and on repeats the cycle of predictable human psychology.

There are signs that accumulation by the "whales" and big smart investors has happened in various ranges on our way down.

Big money must buy during "dumps" in a range of price. They can't just dump money into the market when things are flat or they instantly spike the price or give away their intentions.

So now "big money" and hard-core holders support the bottom price (imo, maybe $4k or $5k) and it will be fairly flat for some months. Over these months is where the smarter retail traders come in to buy and hold and their version of accumulation.

Once big money sees signs of this; there is usually another big green volume spike because they know it's time for an uptrend to very first start. Slowly and surely we build on top of the big money and smarter retail traders.

And the first sign of major bull price action (what most retail traders watch for).. like $5k going to $10k in a matter of weeks will be the final signal for it to start again. =)
 
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lewj24

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(by super bull, I am meaning like $50k or more)
You say above that you are mostly out of the market and will wait to get in. Why wouldn't you be buying up a ton of crypto now if you think it will go up from 6k now to 50k in 2 years?

I think most of what you said is irrational and illogical. The reason I say this is because you are trying to predict dumb money. Dumb money came into the real estate market in 07 and got destroyed. Dumb money moved to the tech stocks in 99 and got clobbered. The thing is they haven't really gone back. They either learned their lesson or can't afford to go back. I believe Crypto dumb money won't be back for the same reasons. Has there ever been a bubble in the same market within 3 years? Ever? I can't see that happening again. Unless, like I said, something major changes.

Maybe you're right or maybe you're wrong. Either way James Fend, I think you're crazy.
 

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