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Convince me to Not Buy a Home

Envision

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Real estate indicators don't make it seem we're necessarily at a top, but in most recessions, real estate doesn't lead the downturn -- it's a lagging indicator. 2008 was an exception, and because of it, many new investors incorrectly believe that real estate is typically the *cause* of the recession, and generates leading indications of an economic downturn.

But, that's not generally the case (hardly ever, in fact)... Typically, it's the business cycle that gives way first, leading to increased unemployment and wage depression, which ultimately leads to a turn in the real estate industry. Real estate starts to turn a few months after the rest of the economy.

With that said, how is the rest of the economy doing? All indications are that the business cycle we're currently in may be coming to an end. Some of the most reliable indicators:

- Full employment
- Flattening yield curve
- Rising interest rates
- Consumer credit at a peak
- Reduction in GDP (especially immediately after a tax break)
- Wage and real inflation increasing

(Note that the first two -- full employment and an inverting yield curve -- are almost perfect indicators for recession in the United States.)

And if you just look at the statistics, we're currently in the second longest business cycle in recent history, so just based on timing, we should be expecting a turn in the near future.

I know a lot of people disagree with me on this, and I'm the first to say I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm confident enough in my assessment that I have completely reorganized my real estate business based on the current economic conditions and my perceived implications of them.

This is a good POV but you gotta take into consideration the devastation of the recession and the recovery that we need to make, so it's not outrageous to be in the second longest business cycle.

No doubt, the economy will turn at some point in the future but I'd bet it won't be nationwide, various indicators in my city for example show that people keep coming here, we're in a housing deficit, and house prices are skyrocketing. This would be different compared to California, or the midwest. What's your thoughts on that?

Also, for the op...

Your house isn't an investment. I'd recommend seeking a househacking opportunity like many on the forum have done but you'd need 2 years of w2 income for the fha loan. That would turn your house into an asset.

Can you use the money you have to make more money at a better rate than an investment home would?
 
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biophase

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Let's say you know that REI prices will only drop 20%. Does it make sense to sell?

Assume you have $1M in REI. That will cost you 6% to sell it. Then assuming you have capital gains tax, let's just say you've done decent and made $200,000 on your current $1M REI portfolio. So now you pay $40,000 in taxes. So your $1M REI becomes $900,000 in actual cash in the bank.

If REI drops by 10% you are back to even. If REI drops 20% and your properties are worth $800k, was it even worth the trouble to sell in the first place?

One other thing I forgot about is depreciation in the tax calculations. I just did my taxes today which reminded me of it. I'm assuming a 13 year ownership period here. So a 16% REI collapse would be break even.

Same example as before, but with a lower cost basis due to depreciation:

Assume you have $1M in REI. That will cost you 6% to sell it. Then assuming you have capital gains tax, let's just say you've done decent and made $500,000 on your current $1M REI portfolio. So now you pay $100,000 in taxes. So your $1M REI becomes $840,000 in actual cash in the bank.
 

SteveO

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I can see plenty of reasons to sell property right now, but most of them will be situation dependent. Also, changing market conditions provide opportunity -- if you're well positioned to take advantage of those opportunities, selling now can provide additional cash to position yourself even better.
This is the game that I want to stick with. Distressed sales are few and far between right now. The 20% swing is much greater if you dig deep. Could be more like a 50-80% swing.
 

HelpAndProsper

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After reading a lot of these posts, I'm more convinced to rent and keep saving money on the side and let this play out into the next downturn.
 
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Guest3722A

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- Flattening yield curve
- Rising interest rates
Do you think Powell is going to actually raise in 2 weeks? Ever since his seating, he's been aggressively stating that this was going to occur. Right now, as I type this, this is how the curve falls:

Left side - FFR 1.75, 2 yr 2.38, 10 yr 2.83, 30 yr 3.015 - Right side

Two weeks ago I was very much bullish on this. The right side broke through key resistance levels, auctions improved and a steepening occurred. Last week, Powell changed his language from aggressively hawkish to moderately dovish and both sides came down hard, breaking support. This how nervous this market has been. And then it comes right back.

Over the last few weeks I've seen alot of scared money running in and out of flight to safety positions in the treasuries. There's also been alot of short covering outside of the obvious levels.

The part that gets me is that the right side steepened after reaching a more enticing yield at the last auction, which was stronger. And now after last week's language changed, what I'm seeing is a possible double top forming in the 30 and a possible head and shoulders forming in the 10. I think that's the clock to watch for.
 

Late Bloomer

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This is an interesting thread to follow. Thanks for the many perspectives.

Yesterday the state's public radio news (I'm in the Midwest) had a story on how this is the hot, hot time for home sellers, but oh so difficult for buyers. They said half of homes are selling above asking price, because interest rates and unemployment are so low "and that's expected to not change for at least a year." (They didn't give any reasons for these macro predictions.) They had an anecdotal mention of a local well qualified couple, looking to buy, who have lost out on multiple offers $15k above asking price. That was the full report.

A trend follower would say, what a perfect time to sell in a market with at least another year to go up. I guess a contrarian would say, when everyone agrees the market is higher then ever and is only going to keep going up for now, that's the time to get out.
 
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Rickh

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After years of renting I got really bored and irritated of:

a) paying off someone else mortgage whilst they also benefited from the increase in house prices
b) being 3 months away from not having a home [3 months notice in tenancy agreements]
c) not being able to make changes to my homes layout/aesthetics to my taste because it belonged to someone else.

I felt like some elses b**ch working to pay off their loan.

That's just me, I'm 4 years into my mortgage and I don't feel 'restricted' or at the mercy of a large financial institution earning money on the interest I pay. Hell if I sell up now I'd be 100k better off than I would if I was paying rent over the past 4 years.

Yeah the market could crash and I could have negative equity for a while, but I've got a wife and kids and happy with the area we live in, again I feel totally free to progress my business ventures whilst my family has permanent residence in a great area, which is important for schools, near family etc.

Also I was in a financial position to take out a mortgage loan at a competitive rate, not everyone can summon up a decent deposit.

I would say the only bad advice I got was to 'stretch' your mortgage payments as much as you can in order to buy a more valuable property [I didn't do that as it didn't feel right]. For me that's got your a$$ over a barrel with your bank keeping you stuck with a job that pays your high debts and likely removes any meaningful 'side hustle' time from your life.

There are many factors involved in making the right choice, it's down to you and your circumstances.
 
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ryanbleau

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If you cant pay cash you cant afford it. My one rule I live by. I'm 35 and own my house outright. That frees up my money to work for me and not pay for a mortgage or interest. Buy a cheap piece of crap and fix it up. save some money and flip it into your next house. Always pay cash.
 

DustinH

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Don't buy a house unless you are committed to living in it for 10 years. Buy something in a price range that sells (don't get anything over $600,000) and in a quiet suburban area that is desirable with good school systems (stability). Don't put all your cash into the down payment if you don't have to. Only put 20% down to avoid the PMI. Put the rest of your cash to work somewhere else. Don't try to search for a great "deal." Pay for a good house that will be desirable 10 years from now (unless you have plans to update it). Don't try to get a discount on the sales price. Get the sellers to pay for all the closing expenses/fees, and ask your realtor to pay for the inspections. The fees involved in the transaction is cash you will never get back. The cash put as a down payment will appreciate. Here is a list of closing costs and fees you should get someone else to pay for (the seller, your realtor, or even your mortgage broker): inspection fees, repairs, title insurance, loan origination fee, closing attorney fee, homeowners association transfer fees, typical closing costs such as the state mortgage tax and state deed transfer tax. Your mortgage broker should be able to give you a detailed list of every line item you have to pay, except for the inspection costs and closing attorney fee. Your realtor should be able to negotiate these on your behalf.

If you don't want to commit to one place for 10 years then don't buy it. Buy 2 or 3 rentals instead. Don't ever just buy one rental. If you go that route then go into it thinking you will buy 3 rentals. One door is never a good investment.
 
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Guest3722A

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Over the past week, we can add to this list:

- GDP forecast revised down for Q2 (to 2.2%)
- Debt-to-GDP ratio now forecast near 110 this year and near 120 by 2023
- Home sales dropping
- Fed warning of increased inflation
- Real unemployment at 8.6%

I could certainly be wrong, but I'm comfortable enough with my speculation that I just bought a whole lot of QQQ/XHP/SPX LEAP PUTs...
Yeah with me I personally don't care which way the market goes as I just trade futures contracts usually short term. I will say that after a long string of winning trades I did get burned two weeks ago on some short contracts on the 2yr where I was up on the day before Powell abruptly flipped his language and I've been on the sidelines ever since. I'm waiting for the geopolitical confusion to settle and show a path.

What is interesting though is that some prominent traders down at the CME are baffled at the current price action and then 2 days ago, the bond king himself, Bill Gross, took his largest one day loss ever. Which is odd. So there's all kinds of records being broken at this time. One more that comes to mind is, I'm not sure if you remember the Dow's largest one day point loss back in February, but Goldman just came out stating that they had their largest one day point gain at 200 million on that day.

From a technical perspective, I see the DJIA wedging, and the Nasdaq wedging and both are right about at the point. The next few days they have to break out, up or down. The Nasdaq has been holding strong though and really seems like it wants to put in a new all time high, especially seeing that this current earnings season has been a blowout. But, nothing surprises me with these markets!
 
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Nmm540

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Dont buy a house. Instead learn how to House Hack.

Buy a duplex, triplex, or 4 plex with your FHA 3.5% down payment loan. I bought a duplex in October '17. I paid $7,700 as my down payment for a $220,000 duplex. Its a 1900 sq ft with my unit being a 2 bed room one bath at 800 sq ft and the other unit being an 1100 sq ft unit. I pay $1,440 a month for my total mortgage including insurance and principal and interest. I have a tenant in my other duplex that pays me $900 a month total. I therfore pay $540 total for an 800sq ft place which is $300 below the market and Im the boss of the place. Over one year I will pay $17,280 total for my mortgage payments. My tenant wil reduce that down to $6,480. 17,280-(900 tenant pays x12)=$6,480. If you include the upkeep for the place at around $200 a month itll come out to $2400 a year (12x200=2400) . So far I will put in over one year 7700+17280+2400=$27,380.

Lets add the credits now.
My tenant will reduce it by $10,800. So now were at $16,580 total.
The down payment of $7,700 is still mine so were down to $8,800 total.
Im gaining $317 a month in equity and climbing a dollar per month $317, $318, $319 etc coming out to $3,876 the first year. Lowering me down to $4,924 total. My house is appreciating according to zillow at 5.7% for the year which is $12,540 bringing me down to a POSITIVE $7,616. I will MAKE $7,616 (net worth) in my first year just living here.

The drawback is that this additional net worth is basically all dependent on the housing market. Your best bet would be to buy a triplex or 4 plex and have it CASHFLOW. I messed up and pulled the trigger too soon and didnt think it through and just got a duplex. You only get one FHA loan at 3.5%. All this is truly possible. Imagine the freedom this plan can give you to work on your business when you dont have to worry about paying rent.
 
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Guest3722A

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Nothing is being driven by data anymore. Instead, everything is being driven by daily political/geopolitical rhetoric -- Trump threatens a trade war, the markets drop. Trump gets announces a sit-down with North Korea, the markets go up.
I have a few things I wanted to add but unfortunately don't have the time but I wanted to get in before 8:30 est that the employment situation report is coming out at that time. https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx Imo, wages are stagnating even though the beige book shows growth but they can't keep up to at the least, fuel prices. So this report will show where wages are going and how the market will react. But yes, Trump took quite a command on the markets as depicted by the chart I attached showing the massive volume that occurred right after his election. I believe that the market thus far wants to hold a belief in his ability to, for lack of a better word, execute.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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This has turned into an interesting economic discussion...

But I'm also leaning toward a significant event downward. My prediction is it begins at the end of August with October being absolutely brutal.

As such, I've reduced my option sales and short exposure, assuming my dates are off.

Among other things mentioned by @JScott, I come to this conclusion based on that 1) the market has been unable to recover the February correction and 2) Large up days in the S&P is accompanied by below average volume (no conviction) and 3) Netflix is a 350 stock with a 250 PE.
 

HelpAndProsper

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If you cant pay cash you cant afford it. My one rule I live by. I'm 35 and own my house outright. That frees up my money to work for me and not pay for a mortgage or interest. Buy a cheap piece of crap and fix it up. save some money and flip it into your next house. Always pay cash.

I really like your philosophy. I've thought about this...I have the cash to buy a crappy, very small house or I could buy a condo outright.

That way, I'm paying 0 interest to a bank while having a mortgage.

I can immediately probably rent the place with no mortgage.

Or, I can live with no rent/mortgage payment.

So the real question, am I willing to live in a less-than-ideal home for a while knowing that I owe nothing, but taxes/insurance/repairs.

I think your philosophy may be the best advice mentioned on this thread.
 

ryanbleau

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If your going to bootstrap a new business you make sure the constants in your life are taken care of cant be repossessed. My car is paid for, my suv is paid for. I have no loans on anything they can take if I fail. I also have growing equity in my home if shit hits the fan.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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and 3) Netflix is a 350 stock with a 250 PE.

And I will add that Lululemon (a freaking Yoga pants company) is now a $125 stock with a PE of 55.
 

LaraJF

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I'm happy I bought my house for similar reasons (noise).

But you wanted the negatives. You're responsible for paying for everything. Leaky pipe in the wall? the plumber charges you to open a hole, repair it, and then you need to find someone else to repair the dry wall and paint.

You pay property taxes usually (check NH...it may be different then California aka Tax You To Death State). I also have homeowner's insurance and earthquake insurance. It adds up.

Appliance dies? Yup, have to buy a new one.

Rat dies squeezing out between the house & the chimney? Guess who gets to remove it or pay $175?

Owning a home feels like "if it's not one thing, it's another." (yet I'm glad I bought when I did even though the interest rates were around 11% in 1995 if I recall correctly)

So, time to make a pro's & con's sheet.

IMG_6954.JPG

I'm posting this as a way to FIGHT the urge to follow the herd!!!!

I don't want to follow the herd!!!

I'm tempted to buy my first house in Portsmouth, NH area because I love it there and it's beautiful. Here's the thing.....I know real estate in these hot markets has run up considerably the last few years....I feel I would probably be buying at the TOP of the market.

I really want to live in a small house because I HATE hearing my neighbors through apartment/condo walls.

Should I try to find a house to rent for a while? Suck it up in another apartment in a new location while I build my business?

Any advice is appreciated!!
 

HelpAndProsper

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And I will add that Lululemon (a freaking Yoga pants company) is now a $125 stock with a PE of 55.

But I have some maroon Lululemon pants/slacks and they are some of my favorite pants of all time...True story....:)
 
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HelpAndProsper

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I'm happy I bought my house for similar reasons (noise).

But you wanted the negatives. You're responsible for paying for everything. Leaky pipe in the wall? the plumber charges you to open a hole, repair it, and then you need to find someone else to repair the dry wall and paint.

You pay property taxes usually (check NH...it may be different then California aka Tax You To Death State). I also have homeowner's insurance and earthquake insurance. It adds up.

Appliance dies? Yup, have to buy a new one.

Rat dies squeezing out between the house & the chimney? Guess who gets to remove it or pay $175?

Owning a home feels like "if it's not one thing, it's another." (yet I'm glad I bought when I did even though the interest rates were around 11% in 1995 if I recall correctly)

So, time to make a pro's & con's sheet.

View attachment 19683

thanks for the advice,

You seem like a nice person. I'm sorry you live in California. I lived there for 12 years and will never go back now that it's a haven for everything indecent and unAmerican in the Universe. Did I mention how much I detest the coastal Cali culture?

:)
 

DustinH

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I am curious to why you are against a mortgage. You're paying the government for the right to "own" the property (property taxes). You're paying an insurance company for replacing anything that gets damaged (homeowners insurance). You pay the neighborhood for god-knows-what (homeowners association fees). That probably adds up to $500-$700 a month, anyways. So, is a mortgage really that bad?

The tax advantages for a mortgage are there (FYI I'm not a mortgage broker).
Mortgage Principal - not deductible
Mortgage Interest - Tax Deductible
Property Taxes - Tax Deductible (up to $10,000/yr)

Insurance - not deductible
HOA fees - not deductible
Rent - not tax deductible

On a 30-yr fixed mortgage you will pay more in interest in the first 15 years than principal. So, the tax advantage is there. Especially in the first few years.

Also, calculate how much money you have to make to pay your rent vs paying a mortgage.

Let's say your effective tax rate is 25%. So, when you make $100, $25 go to taxes and you keep $75.

Rent = $2,000 then you have to make $2,667 to pay your rent.

Mortgage = $2,000 (principal = $500, interest = $1,500 in the beginning with 30yr fixed)
then you have to make $667 to pa your principal and $1,500 to pay your interest
So, you have to make $2,167 to pay your $2,000 mortgage

The $2,167 you need to make to pay your mortgage compared to the $2,667 to pay your rent sounds like a better deal to me.

Then, if you add in the fact that the $500 principal goes into your equity, which is money you will get back if you sell it. Rent is money you will never get back.

A mortgage loan is setup as an advantageous tool. The tax advantages and the incredibly long financing term are impossible to find anywhere else. You can't borrow money to buy stocks or a business and have 30 years to pay it back at the lowest interest rate available amongst the entire consumer debt spectrum.
 

LaraJF

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I know!!!!!

I was born & raised here and still wonder what the heck happened.

Some day I'll escape and pray people in another state don't discriminate against me because I came from California.

thanks for the advice,

You seem like a nice person. I'm sorry you live in California. I lived there for 12 years and will never go back now that it's a haven for everything indecent and unAmerican in the Universe. Did I mention how much I detest the coastal Cali culture?

:)
 
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Seeker

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I'm sorry you live in California. I lived there for 12 years and will never go back now that it's a haven for everything indecent and unAmerican in the Universe. Did I mention how much I detest the coastal Cali culture?

:)

Just out of pure curiosity: What exactly is the coastal Cali culture you're refering to? To me California always has been as american as it gets. We went there on our honeymoon and to me it's one of the nicest places on earth with all the nature, great Canyon roads, beach, all that Tech and StartUp in Silicon Valley, .... I always considered living there and sometimes still dream about it. Is my Picture completely wrong? Is it actually nothing like I imagine it to be? What makes living there so horrible in your opinion, that you're even afraid of getting discriminated? As a German I really have not idea. Asking both of you @HelpAndProsper @LaraJF
 

Rickh

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If you cant pay cash you cant afford it. My one rule I live by. I'm 35 and own my house outright. That frees up my money to work for me and not pay for a mortgage or interest. Buy a cheap piece of crap and fix it up. save some money and flip it into your next house. Always pay cash.
I don't think it's as black and white as that. You can leverage low interest mortgage loans to benefit from increasing house prices. When you have solid equity, if you really wanted to sell up and downsize to buy your home outright then you can, hand the difference back to the bank.
 

LaraJF

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I could tell you about potholes, about the incredible closed-minded people (agree with me or else), the actual costs of sanctuary cities and "undocumented workers." The people who vote for Bond Issues thinking they're making things wonderful when they're raising taxes. Then they move because it's too expensive to live here and leave us holding the tax burden.

But, this thread isn't about that. So I won't. I could write a book about the reality of this "paradise." I've lived in Silicon Valley since 1976. I've seen the changes, good and bad.
 
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MTEE1985

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If I were to comment on a location standpoint alone and having grown up 10 minutes away from the OP (in Durham, NH) Portsmouth is a beautiful town and becoming a nice little hotspot for companies not wanting to set up shop in Boston so any top of the market fears would be of little concern to me, especially if you plan on being there long term.
 

HelpAndProsper

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I could tell you about potholes, about the incredible closed-minded people (agree with me or else), the actual costs of sanctuary cities and "undocumented workers." The people who vote for Bond Issues thinking they're making things wonderful when they're raising taxes. Then they move because it's too expensive to live here and leave us holding the tax burden.

But, this thread isn't about that. So I won't. I could write a book about the reality of this "paradise." I've lived in Silicon Valley since 1976. I've seen the changes, good and bad.

Thank You. The state has the most violent, anti-American hateful population I've ever seen. If you like burning American flags, spitting on American veterans, high taxes, elitist Hollywood idiots with gates around their houses telling you to not own a gun, shouting down and violently attacking any speaker on a Cali college campus that doesn't believe in socialism then it's a great state for you....

In addition, compared to the rest of America, people in general are flaky in Cali. They act nice to your face, but are not dependable. The East Coast, Midwest, etc. in USA have much more solid, dependable people IMO.

The whole state should split off from the USA. The rest of the country mostly despises the state. The weather there is fabulous and San Francisco is a gorgeous city if you can step over the mound of heroin needles and homeless bums. The culture and people are awful for the most part...

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

I lived there for 12 years. I feel I have a solid basis for my opinion.
 

Thoelt53

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Thank You. The state has the most violent, anti-American hateful population I've ever seen. If you like burning American flags, spitting on American veterans, high taxes, elitist Hollywood idiots with gates around their houses telling you to not own a gun, shouting down and violently attacking any speaker on a Cali college campus that doesn't believe in socialism then it's a great state for you....

In addition, compared to the rest of America, people in general are flaky in Cali. They act nice to your face, but are not dependable. The East Coast, Midwest, etc. in USA have much more solid, dependable people IMO.

The whole state should split off from the USA. The rest of the country mostly despises the state. The weather there is fabulous and San Francisco is a gorgeous city if you can step over the mound of heroin needles and homeless bums. The culture and people are awful for the most part...

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

I lived there for 12 years. I feel I have a solid basis for my opinion.
Going from Cali to Boston must have been a culture shock...

The politics aren't much different, however.
 
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DustinH

Bronze Contributor
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May 24, 2017
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Nashville
We have a huge influx of people moving from California into Nashville. Every time I talk to them I ask them why. They say the same reasons: taxes too high, cost of living is ridiculous, real estate unaffordable, the politics are out of touch, the infrastructure is in disrepair, too much traffic, etc. etc.

The Nashville area’s claim to increase in population by 100 people per day took a hit with the release this week of new population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

800,000 people are about to flee New York and California because of taxes

Movement Out of California Was the Most Influential Driver of U.S. Migration Patterns

Leaving California? After slowing, the trend intensifies
 

Elif

New Contributor
Jun 25, 2018
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How does your cashflow situation change from renting to buying? If its the same I would buy, keep in mind maintenance, taxes, water bill, heat bills, etc...
 

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