Time to Short Crox?

[Peter2]

So who wants to run the numbers on, say, 10 put contracts bought last week -- what would they be worth now? ROI?

I think this is a good time to jump back in to CROX. I picked up November $50 call options @ $2.50 today.

 

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[piranha526]

I think this is a good time to jump back in to CROX. I picked up November $50 call options @ $2.50 today.

Peter,
I am not touching CROX but if a gun was put to my head to take a position, it would be more puts (a couple months out). Calls may work very short term (next few weeks) but the trend has snapped and stocks typically travel in the same direction long term.

Buy hey, I am not touching it so my outlook doesn't matter.

 

[MrDoctor]

I think this is a good time to jump back in to CROX. I picked up November $50 call options @ $2.50 today.

Nice. W/O a doubt they will be trading at $50 soon. Excellent time to pick some up, especially with the hot new Mammoth line being available for the holiday season. LOL, I don't understand how people can wear these things .

I am going to start a web site dedicated to Crocs spotting.

 

[MrDoctor]

Nice. W/O a doubt they will be trading at $50 soon. Excellent time to pick some up, especially with the hot new Mammoth line being available for the holiday season. LOL, I don't understand how people can wear these things .

I am going to start a web site dedicated to Crocs spotting.

Well, it looks as if they already did that :smx4:.

 

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[Stevenh]

I think the short on Crox was a great play by those who made it and I'm pretty upset with myself for not being on board... Does anyone have any opinions on what the next high flying stock to take a dump might be? I'm willing to bet Chipotle is due for a decent correction in the next 4-6 months, but still haven't dove in and bought my puts yet.

 

[Stevenh]

I'm willing to bet Chipotle is due for a decent correction in the next 4-6 months, but still haven't dove in and bought my puts yet.

Anyone make this bet? Earnings just came out and they are getting killed after hours... They were at $155 at the end of December and are trading under $95 at the moment.

I missed by a month and my Jan $120 puts did just about nothing for me

 

[Stevenh]

Anyone make this bet? Earnings just came out and they are getting killed after hours... They were at $155 at the end of December and are trading under $95 at the moment.

I missed by a month and my Jan $120 puts did just about nothing for me

EDIT: forgot to put in a few of these guys :bgh::bgh::bgh::bgh::bgh::bgh::bgh:

 

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[piranha526]

9/5/07:
I (personally) wouldn't look to pick a top but if I did, i would wait until it was below the 50-day moving average (at the least).

I do see one thing on the charts: a gap that hasn't filled from May in the low $30 range. In my 10 years of trading, I know this: most gaps fill and do so within a year.

We'll see.

Take a look - the gap completely filled eight months later. This adds to the theory from my 10 years of trading. Another gap successfully filled within the year.

Also, the drop below the 50-day moving avergage was the beginning of the end for new highs.

imirza - I am not picking on you but you basically picked the top for us. It wasn't a short yet on 10/2/07 when you made the quote below but you were trading with your heart, not your head. I hope you sold when it broke down and remember , there is no SAFE bet!

Looks to me like CROX is breaking out. With the market at all time highs , a run to $100 is probably a very safe bet. I would think we get there before January. From a technical perspective there was a bullish MACD crossover last week. The 50 moving average held support. A very safe place to go long.

For all those who think CROX is a fad, look at the people who probably filed BK trying to short HANS. I'm sure there were many who though energy drinks were a fad.

 

[Edge]

Wow - shorts have had a nice 6 months with this one, and a great day today.

 

[hakrjak]

Now, I see CROX setting up in a similar type position.

Is the fad over and will the stock soon follow?

I was in Tuesday morning on Saturday, and they had the knock-offs for $8.99 a pair... I can't believe Crocs is still trying to charge people $30 bucks a pop for these suckers. I think all the cheap imitations are definitely hurting them and stealing tons of market share.

What's with the super low P/E ratio? Looks like they are still making plenty of money... Maybe now they are a buy again?

- Hakrjak

 

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[MrDoctor]

Yes, and the imitation's are better quality !

Why don't you just send your money this way .

Think of economic elasticity here....

 

[MJ DeMarco]

UPDATE: This stock now trades at around a buck ... actually fell under $1 today.

 

[marktech101]

Haha. Good call, PhxMJ.

 

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[CorsePerVita]

Cool resurrection, it's interesting to see how things play out. I got out just in time before crox burned everyone last year.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Crocs is dying ...
washingtonpost.com

 

[Halli]

Seems to me like they were putting all the eggs in the same basket (or however it goes).Did they only have this one product? Was the company built on that? A grocery store would never survive by selling only one product.Maybe I'm wrong about them.I don't know too much about them. I feel a sense of irony that I'm wearing Crocs while typing this

 

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[randallg99]

Crocs is dying ...
washingtonpost.com

hopefully you have that short still in place....

my wife actually decided buy Mickey Mouse Crocs for the kids today.... ever since being in disney has the kids roaring for Mickey this and Mickey that everywhere we go, it seemed appropriate. Anyway, I think there's a lesson to be learned from the company's mistake(s):

1. Crocs really needed to diversify their product line (besides other fads)
2. Instead of using the capital to expand into new markets, they invested within their own supply chain
3. Was there a hedge in place?
4. They went from nothing (literally) to hundred million dollar profits.... it's easy to lose sight for longevity, especially in a very robust economy.

The more I think about this, the more I realize these are mistakes that I've made. Unfortunately, they're very common. Fortunately, we learn from them.