The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[David Harrison]

Perception is a dynamic conflict between the attempts of an outer world to impose an actuality on us and our efforts to transform this actuality into a self-centred perspective. Perception is a confrontation between an inward-directed vector of external reality, compelling awareness and an outward-directed vector of physiological, cultural, and psychological transformation. Where these vectors clash, where they balance each other, is what we perceive. This, in sum, is my view of perception. R.J. Rummel

What he's saying is, we all have internal "biases".
And these perspectives taint our understanding of the realities of the physical world (albeit on an unconscious level)
In other words.
We understand the real through the "information" that's "received".

Tip: Watch over time how the many narratives play out. Life is indeed a stage "with actors", and an audience.
Which are you? (BTW, there are also Directors and Producers)

And this is the main "reason" for so much conflict in what's "right or wrong".

The wood through the trees comes to mind...

 

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[Timmy C]

I'm not a Gates fan, but maybe he just wants to make the world a better place? You really think he's up to even more money or power?

Pretty tired of the massive increase of conspiracy BS lately.

I am saying we should at least have the discussion and not bury information.

 

[Longinus]

I am saying we should at least have the discussion and not bury information.

I used to agree with this statement. Problem is that it's basically impossible to discuss with people that are knee deep in conspiracy shit. They trust loose facts, but then they ask solid facts to prove, often getting pretty angry during the convo.

Plus, these theories are often pure hatred towards some specific group or racism in disguise. Check what this fool Icke has to say about jews. Check what theories were popular pre WW2 (some even still believed).

As said on this forum before: there's just too much randomness to have this controlled by human beings (or lizards). The thought of that scares people, and that's why they seek comfort in these theories, and that's why they react so emotional when you try to debunk those.

 

[Timmy C]

I used to agree with this statement. Problem is that it's basically impossible to discuss with people that are knee deep in conspiracy shit. They trust loose facts, but then they ask solid facts to prove, often getting pretty angry during the convo.

Plus, these theories are often pure hatred towards some specific group or racism in disguise. Check what this fool Icke has to say about jews. Check what theories were popular pre WW2 (some even still believed).

As said on this forum before: there's just too much randomness to have this controlled by human beings (or lizards). The thought of that scares people, and that's why they seek comfort in these theories, and that's why they react so emotional when you try to debunk those.

Fair enough, but i think having discourse is a good thing.

Life is random.

People have there own agenda and they can leverage natural random events to their advantage to further that agenda.

I know i wouldn't like to have a vaccine that is compulsory, and a microchip one at that.

I haven't had a flu shot in my entire life, but this year even people around me are saying you haven't had it?

Go get it now its so irresponsible!

One guy was saying oh this gates thing is legit hes an a**hole, but then yet he was running for senate (furthering his own agenda)

It doesn't make what he said to be lies but something to consider as to why he might be saying it.

But i think it is unwise just to dismiss things straight away without looking at it from other angles and keeping an open mind.

 

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[MTF]

Making an effort to keep this thread valuable...

Some various interesting updates from Facts about C0VlD-19 (all based on data, not conspiracy theories):

• In the city of Chelsea near Boston, about one third of 200 blood donors had antibodies against the Covid19 pathogen. Half of them reported having experienced a cold symptom in the last month. In a homeless shelter near Boston, just over a third of the people tested positive, but nobody showed any symptoms.
• The emergency room in Bergamo’s municipal hospital was completely empty at the beginning of this week for the first time in 45 days. In the meantime, more people with other diseases than „Covid19 patients“ are being treated again.
• A nine-year-old French child with corona infection had contact with 172 people, but none of them were infected. This confirms earlier results that corona infection (unlike influenza) is not or hardly ever transmitted by children.
• In Switzerland, cumulative total mortality in the first quarter (until April 5) was at the mean expected value and more than 1500 deaths below the upper expected value. Moreover, by the middle of April the total mortality rate was still more than 2000 deaths below the comparative value from the severe flu season of 2015 (see figure below).
• Aid organisations warn that „far more people“ will die from the economic consequences of the measures than from C0VlD-19 itself. Forecasts now predict that 35 to 65 million people will fall into absolute poverty, and many of them are threatened with starvation.

 

[ChickenHawk]

Problem is that it's basically impossible to discuss with people that are knee deep in conspiracy shit.

The term "conspiracy theory" was popularized and promoted by the U.S. government to discredit those who didn't believe the official story on Kennedy's assassination. Since then, it has been used nearly nonstop by the media and our own governments to mock and discredit anyone who questions the official narrative.

These days, calling someone a conspiracy theorist is a clever way to shut down debate without having to present facts and evidence.

Now some "conspiracy theories" are clearly idiotic, such as those who believe the Earth is flat. But I can't help but wonder if those more ridiculous theories are given a lot more attention because it further discredits "conspiracy theorists" who aren't buying the official narratives on other topics.

 

[Timmy C]

Didn't want to say this because I don't want to be labelled a conspiracy theorist because I'm F*cking not lol.

Label me as this.

Found some information probably worth a look guys what do you think?

Response.

So sick of conspiracy theories.

Shuts down shit straight away.

 

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[David Harrison]

Organisations of varying degree manage the world's populations.
And the folk who formulate the plans to implement change don't share the policy with the majority.

Call me a cynic, but I'd call that a conspiracy. And it ain't no "theory".

 

[Longinus]

The term "conspiracy theory" was popularized and promoted by the U.S. government to discredit those who didn't believe the official story on Kennedy's assassination. Since then, it has been used nearly nonstop by the media and our own governments to mock and discredit anyone who questions the official narrative.

These days, calling someone a conspiracy theorist is a clever way to shut down debate without having to present facts and evidence.

Now some "conspiracy theories" are clearly idiotic, such as those who believe the Earth is flat. But I can't help but wonder if those more ridiculous theories are given a lot more attention because it further discredits "conspiracy theorists" who aren't buying the official narratives on other topics.

I'm not saying people should accept everything official instances claim, far from it. I think it's wise to question every narrative, as it is almost always written with some purpose or from a certain angle. Some more dangerous than others.

Conspiracy theories usually have these things in common:

• They and only they claim to know the truth (which is already pretty arrogant).
• They look for coincidental random facts to build a theory around it. For example 5G and COVID19. There's so much coincidental stuff happening daily, it doesn't always has an explanation. It's a chaos out there, and that's frightening to most people.
• They reject debunking facts as being propaganda or fake news and are usually not even open to investigate those.
• Although they always claim they "predicted" stuff, the ultimate theory they preach, never ever became a reality. They just keep making more stuff up.

 

[Longinus]

Organisations of varying degree manage the world's populations.
And the folk who formulate the plans to implement change don't share the policy with the majority.

Call me a cynic, but I'd call that a conspiracy. And it ain't no "theory".

What does that make not a "theory"?

The only way to manage world populations is to develop all 3th world countries. You don't do that by purposely spreading a virus all over the world, which can eventually push a 1st world country back to 3th world.

 

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[David Harrison]

What does that make not a "theory"?

The only way to manage world populations is to develop all 3th world countries. You don't do that by purposely spreading a virus all over the world, which can eventually push a 1st world country back to 3th world.

Really, and you know how to manage the population of the world.
It might help to run a business with at least a thousand people first, (just to get a taste).
And then scale it up a few...

What I'm saying without getting into a debate. Is it's not an easy task. But one that has had quite a few "experiments" to get where we are now, (just saying).

It might help if you did a six-month study on geopolitics before you jump into the water...
Thanks for the reaction though, much appreciated.

 

[Xeon]

I donno Bill gates seems sketchy to me....

Bill Gates and Intellectual Ventures Funds Microchip Implant Vaccine Technology

You really can not make this up The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has donated more than $21 million towards developing a vaccine technology that uses a tattoo-like mechanism which injects invisible nanoparticles under the skin that is now being tested in a vaccine against the virus that...

lifeboat.com

Science | AAAS

stm.sciencemag.org

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has donated more than $21 million towards developing a vaccine technology that uses a tattoo-like mechanism which injects invisible nanoparticles under the skin that is now being tested in a vaccine against the virus that causes C0VlD-19.

Which sheep want to line up for this first?
This guy can't even fix viruses on windows.

The other week a report got leaked that they started testing a c19 virus on African people and 7 children died. There was a video that I watched that someone shared on insta (it was taken down) When I went to search it on google this came up.

View attachment 32389

i'm not saying the report about the children dying is true but it's being censored straight away, raises eyebrows.

Also who's fact checking fact check?

He has a lot to gain. He funds both sides. He funds the WHO, who is supposed to be there for us (the people) and also funds the big phama who make the medicine/vaccines. Their foundation funds so many companies they have a massive amount of influence on what happens within those companies. And at the end of the day this guy is a computer geek and should not be advising health officials or scientists or anything. He is not a doctor, he is not a scientist. He is not qualified. BUT he has money and money talks unfortunately

Look into his history at Microsoft to, this guy did some shady shit that the government stepped in because he illegally created a monopoly on the market, was a good time for him to rebrand himself as a great guy though after that, smart play by him.

Best damn post in the entire thread.

If the below is true, I hope more stuff will be leaked so that the world knows where Covid19 really originated from.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/21/nearly-25000-email-addresses-passwords-allegedly-nih-who-gates-foundation-are-dumped-online/

 

[GIlman]

This is from @MTF article about Chelsea infections.

“Still,” he added, “it’s kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing.”

This is disheartening how such information is being misapplied and this is the third time I’ve come across a similar printed quote or reference. They are essentially saying - here is evidence that a significant group of people had prior exposure, mild symptoms, and have developed immunity.

To which the logical conclusion SHOULD be that the mortality rate is lower than previously stated and the current approach needs to be reconsidered.

Instead, the ILLOGICAL conclusion they reach is, even more people are infected without symptoms and can spread the disease without knowing, therefore we need to continue to prevent people from moving and keep them locked up.

For completeness I do want to point out that this is not a great study so the results should be taken as a hint of what’s going on, could be very misleading, and needs more rigorous study.

The things that make this study questionable are:

1) Small sample size: prone to error due to random variations, i.e. dumb luck. For example have you ever grabbed say 10 jelly beans from a bowl and 1/2 are one color/flavor even though there are many colors and flavors. Small samples are not good representations of a larger population.

2) Selection bias: they asked people on the street for a sample of blood. While this may appear random at first, you are selecting a group of people willing to go outside, likely younger, healthier, etc...since they have been going out and mingling their infection rate could be much higher than the population at large.

3) Researcher bias: since people were selected off the street was there some bias in who the researcher chose that impacted the result. This is usually unconscious and unintended. This has been shown in past studies to be a factor.

4) Reporting bias: people may not report symptoms accurately. This can be impacted by who is asking the question. For example say an attractive women was part of the team, she might have mostly male volunteers for obvious reasons, and maybe these volunteers deny having symptoms at a high rate because they subconsciously want to appear fit and healthy to this attractive woman.

My frustration right now is that how many people have been infected and what the mortality rate truly is - that is the important question.

Why are we doing these sh$tty studies with 200 participants or a few thousand. The country is losing billions a day. The government should drop say $50M whatever it takes and go in and test the entire population of some sizable town or district (say 50-100,000) where the known infection rate has been high - Chelsea is a perfect candidate with 40K residents. Then you can compare to the number of hospitalizations and deaths to antibody positive people. Then you will have some solid data to make real decisions from.

Some other important things to know is how many people with the known risk factors had mild disease.

For instance we know that say 50% of people that died had high blood pressure (btw I’m guesstimating on 50% I didn’t look up the actual #). But, what % of people with high blood pressure that get covid die? They seem like the same question but they are not, to answer the question you need to identify people with antibodies that also have high blood pressure. Which could be answered in a rigorous large scale population study.

We have no idea on so many things, the data can and does lie if not looked at with an extremely critical eye, and that’s part of what is driving fear in this illness. It FEELS like if you have high blood pressure (or whatever) and get covid you will die because of what and how the data is presented.

 

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[1step]

@ChrisV what percent of NYC do you think has had C0VlD-19?

 

[MTF]

@GIlman, just wanted to say that I immensely appreciate your contributions in this thread. Your responses are thought-out, logical, and non-sensational. Your share your expertise the way it should be done—based on data, not fear and appeal to emotion—and update your views based on the facts presented (seems like a rare gift nowadays). I appreciate it a lot.

What do you think about Sweden's situation at the moment?

It's been three and a half weeks since we had this conversation (edited for brevity):

My point remains the same - if we model what might happen in other countries based on Italy or Spain, then why Sweden, with the first case on the same date as Italy, isn't hit at all compared to Italy?

I don’t know anything about Sweden as a country, but as @Antti points out the situation appears to be deteriorating. One problem I’ve seen with this pandemic is that things change so rapidly that you must make sure to be looking at the Very latest news and data. Stories and data from 2+ days ago can be totally different than today. Again I haven’t dug deep into Sweden, but we can’t point to any country as a success where infection rate is growing not shrinking. We have seen this pattern time and again that places that seemed fine, just blow up with mounting deaths seemingly overnight.

Sweden still has the same restrictions and according to what I posted a few posts ago they reached the peak a week ago. There was never a shortage or healthcare system collapse, not even anything remotely close to it with people still going to the restaurants, shopping, etc. (albeit to a—voluntary—lower extent).

 

[NovaAria]

Much of what caused problems with the virus and the economy right now is people extrapolating data and building models using what happened in a country, and expecting to get the same outcomes in completely different ones.

Sweden itself is an interesting case since Swedes were already a bit of an internet meme due to how distant they are in public places.





This in no way explains their numbers, of course. But the local culture plays a huge role in viral spread. Is it a coincidence that the most hurting countries in Europe: Italy, France and Spain, are all countries where hugging and kissing on the cheek is a tradition?

 

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[hellolin]

China is now imposing a second round of lockdowns:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...o87V1kOMfUY9Hl9poCaWM-Up7E0eUEphMrA1JYMYUbrvE

This is not going to end anytime soon. Factories can't just move out China and build new ones anywhere on earth in a day, or a month, or even a year!

2020 is lost anyways, I think a depression is not preventable at this point. However I still see a lot people are delusional about this, still going about living their normal lives, thinking their jobs will be back in a month or two. Half of the city of LA is now unemployed...interesting times ahead. We open up, we lose, we don't open up, we lose.

 

[ChrisV]

I'm not a Gates fan, but maybe he just wants to make the world a better place? You really think he's up to even more money or power?

Pretty tired of the massive increase of conspiracy BS lately.

Seriously.

Yea, this guy is the guy who's going to enslave the human race:

For the past 10 years Bill Gates had been working on projects like improvements to the sanitation of third world countries for the purposes of disease eradication on his own dime. Gee, I wonder what his motivation is when he want's to make a vaccine?!

 

[ChrisV]

I am saying we should at least have the discussion and not bury information.

No. Fake news is a huge problem. It should be buried.

We shouldn't bury information. But we should bury blatant disinformation like that.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...fter-receiving-C0VlD-19-vaccine-idUSKBN21Y2SI

One post reads: “Have y’all heard? 7 children drop dead immediately after receiving C0VlD-19 vaccine, that is currently being tested on the Senegal people of West Africa #wedonotconsent”

Like seriously? 7 children immediately drop dead? They don't administer vaccines intravenously. You could literally inject pure bleach into a muscle and it would take a few hours for you to 'drop dead.'

It's just absurd gobildy gook and confuses and misleads people (which is exactly what the writers of those posts want.) They firmly believe that vaccines are unsafe, and feel justified in creating fake news that help their cause.

Anyone can write anything on Facebook. Apolitical Journalism outlets (like Reuters/Snopes/Factcheck) – their entire livelihood depends on their factuality.

I honestly think that disseminating Fake News should be a crime.

 

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[Contrarian]

Wah I have to sit at home on my couch for 2 weeks!

it's not fair!

This just in, the government can do way worse shit to you. Like, you know.... the draft. Our grandparents were literally snatched out of their homes and sent to go stomp the beaches of Normandy in one of the bloodiest battles in human history and Millenials whine that they had in order to help their country they had to sit at home for two weeks (which by the way members of the Greatest Generation ALSO had to freakin do)

Tyranny was wrong when it came in the form of the draft 80 years ago and it remains wrong in the form of blanket lockdowns today. Spurious argument.

and I bet they still didn't wine 10% as much.. despite not having Netflix and Xbox and literally the entire world at their fingertips

Seriously, this generation are the biggest wet noodles.

My rights! My rights! I have rights! You're in my safe space! Don't call me that gender!

Our grandparents were asked to topple the third reich, and grown men can't even sit in their cushy technology-infested wonderlands for more than two weeks without kicking the door like kids do when they're mad.

Christ almighty. Millenials are such whiny little milksobs.

It's like Jordan Peterson. All these kids care about is their endless buffet of rights

View: https://youtu.be/Nyw4rTywyY0?t=4582

Not really. I can't speak for anyone else here but I'm quite happily working away on business stuff and otherwise making the most of the situation. The industries I'm in are thriving amidst the pandemic. The last five weeks have flown by. Some semblance of freedom is near on the horizon. I need to buy a car and a motorcycle and damn, I'm gonna save a small fortune on those purchases now. Happy days.

That doesn't make government actions any less egregious. It doesn't give them any more of a right to pick victims, rather than allowing people to choose their own types and levels of risk they're willing to accept.

And there's absolutely no equivalence whatsoever between whiny safe space morons crying about all the things they're supposedly "entitled" to, and people objecting to their fundamental rights and liberties being walked over while the herd cheers. Or worse, being forced into poverty and destitution by decree.

Obedience is not a virtue. On the contrary, obedient people are by far the most dangerous people of all. Obedience and "good citizenship" is responsible for all of the war, tyranny, and human-inflicted mass suffering in history.

 

[ChrisV]

That doesn't make government actions any less egregious. It doesn't give them any more of a right to pick victims, rather than allowing people to choose their own types and levels of risk they're willing to accept.

You're right. People should have the right to accept various levels of disease risk.

And they should also have the right to spread that 'accepted' disease that whomever they want.

Got it.

 

[Contrarian]

You're right. People should have the right to accept various levels of disease risk.

And they should also have the right to spread that disease that they 'accepted' to whomever they want.

Got it.

Where did I say that?

 

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[ChrisV]

Where did I say that?

Because that person who "accepted the risk" now puts others at risk.

That's the point.

This is not like seatbelt laws or drug laws. This is not a victimless crime.

Victimless crimes should be nullified. This is not one of them.

 

[Vigilante]

I got a seemingly innocuous post deleted by my local, left wing newspaper today. What did I have the audacity to post?

The topic was the "next waves" and that "experts" were predicting that CoronaVirus was not going to be eradicated, but that we all needed to shelter in place (implication, forever).

All I did was point out the fact that CoronaVirus was not new, not new in 2019 (although this strain is new, much like the flu strains that present differently every year) and that CoronaVirus would absolutely be around for a while, much like it has been for the past decade. Reference a can of Lysol, if you are blessed enough to own one. Look at what the Lysol names BY NAME as being one of the viruses it can eliminate. SARS and MERS (remember H1N1) are ... CORONAVIRUSES. There's not much new under the sun, folks. CoronaVirus IS going to be around. It was around. It will continue to be around. It is only breaking news to the unwashed, who hide under their bed covers trembling as they learn for the first time from the media that CoronaVirus is going to be around indefinitely. There is no reference in any of these stories to the fact that it HAS been around for decades, as that would calm fears instead of stoking them.

 

[Contrarian]

Because that person who "accepted the risk" now puts others at risk.

That's the point.

This is not like seatbelt laws or drug laws. This is not a victimless crime.

Victimless crimes should be nullified. This is not one of them.

So, I can go out for a walk once a day. But not between 9PM and 6AM because there's a curfew. Explain how going for a walk at 8PM is OK but going for a walk at 9PM is highly dangerous and irresponsible and will be met by the full force of the law?

Going for a walk in my neighbourhood is acceptable, but going for a drive by myself in the middle of nowhere and then going for a walk in the mountains is highly dangerous and irresponsible and will be met by the full force of the law.

I can go into the bakery and buy a cake and a takeout coffee because that's "essential", but I can't buy a frying pan in the supermarket that's already open because that's "non-essential". And obviously, highly dangerous and irresponsible.

It makes total sense to shut the entire country's hospital network down - even the private hospitals - to all but coronavirus patients and immediate emergencies, even though most of the hospitals have been empty for weeks and the staff are hanging around with nothing to do while people with other health problems aren't getting helped. Doing anything else would be highly dangerous and irresponsible.

And it would be highly ironic if the police who are stopping and checking thousands of people every day were actually the ones going around infecting everyone.

Notwithstanding that lockdowns themselves also put people at risk. And if you want to maintain your viral risk level at lockdown proportions, you're free to continue doing exactly what you're already doing and stay at home.

If the masses would genuinely prefer to suffer the economic consequences rather than risk contracting the virus, then surely the hordes of "essential workers" keeping supermarkets and the like running would themselves be choosing to stay at home, waiting it out. But they're not.

And yet, restaurants and bars were already virtually empty before any lockdowns kicked in. But what do I know, obviously people are incapable of making wise decisions for themselves.

 

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[ravenspear]

And with 290,000 - 650,000 people dying annually from the seasonal flu (which nobody bats an eye, or begs the government to shut us down), What makes you think we would have a DRAMATICALLY higher amount of deaths (Tens of millions), If the CFR is likely in the same range?

We know they wouldn't have been the same simply from the observable deaths and the rate they were increasing. C0VlD-19 was not behaving at all like the flu in terms of deaths. This graph shows comparative deaths from flu vs other causes in the US over a year, with the deaths from C0VlD-19 included for the short period it has been relevant.

One chart shows how many Americans are dying from the coronavirus each week compared with other common causes of death like heart disease, cancer, and the flu

More Americans are dying weekly from C0VlD-19 than they have in the past from common causes of death like heart disease, cancer, and the flu.

www.businessinsider.com

The difference is due to several factors. The most important is that no human immunity existed to C0VlD-19, flu deaths are mitigated by the fact that some partial herd immunity exists from vaccines, and from people who have been exposed to the flu prior and developed some degree of immunity. So with the flu, the fatality rate may be 0.1%, but the number of infections would be lower than for C0VlD-19 if it were allowed to spread unchecked. We know enough to say that C0VlD-19 is both more contagious and more deadly.

Even if the antibody studies are correct and the real CFR of C0VlD-19 is on the order of ~0.2% (which is far from certain at this point given the limited data), which would make it only slightly more deadly than flu in terms of CFR, you still would have had a lot more deaths if it spread unchecked. If the entire US population were exposed that would be around 660k deaths, or more than an order of magnitude worse than a typical flu season. Also keep in mind, the real number of deaths would have likely been higher because that 660k would assume everyone receiving medical treatment if they needed it. As we've seen in Italy, NYC etc. if it really gets out of hand that is not even guaranteed. C0VlD-19 deaths were increasing exponentially because of the lack of immunity and contagiousness of the disease before distancing was enacted.

In terms of reopening, if the antibody studies prove correct though, then I agree with the idea that should motivate a shift in attitude and a quicker reopening with careful measures put in place. Right now my judgment is that there is not enough testing capacity, workers for tracing, or PPE for the general population to contemplate a reopening. If those things can be ramped up in the next few weeks, then I would think it could be done.

 

[hellolin]

We know they wouldn't have been the same simply from the observable deaths and the rate they were increasing. C0VlD-19 was not behaving at all like the flu in terms of deaths. This graph shows comparative deaths from flu vs other causes in the US over a year, with the deaths from C0VlD-19 included for the short period it has been relevant.

One chart shows how many Americans are dying from the coronavirus each week compared with other common causes of death like heart disease, cancer, and the flu

More Americans are dying weekly from C0VlD-19 than they have in the past from common causes of death like heart disease, cancer, and the flu.

www.businessinsider.com

View attachment 32454

The difference is due to several factors. The most important is that no human immunity existed to C0VlD-19, flu deaths are mitigated by the fact that some partial herd immunity exists from vaccines, and from people who have been exposed to the flu prior and developed some degree of immunity. So with the flu, the fatality rate may be 0.1%, but the number of infections would be lower than for C0VlD-19 if it were allowed to spread unchecked. We know enough to say that C0VlD-19 is both more contagious and more deadly.

Even if the antibody studies are correct and the real CFR of C0VlD-19 is on the order of ~0.2% (which is far from certain at this point given the limited data), which would make it only slightly more deadly than flu in terms of CFR, you still would have had a lot more deaths if it spread unchecked. If the entire US population were exposed that would be around 660k deaths, or more than an order of magnitude worse than a typical flu season. Also keep in mind, the real number of deaths would have likely been higher because that 660k would assume everyone receiving medical treatment if they needed it. As we've seen in Italy, NYC etc. if it really gets out of hand that is not even guaranteed. C0VlD-19 deaths were increasing exponentially because of the lack of immunity and contagiousness of the disease before distancing was enacted.

In terms of reopening, if the antibody studies prove correct though, then I agree with the idea that should motivate a shift in attitude and a quicker reopening with careful measures put in place. Right now my judgment is that there is not enough testing capacity, workers for tracing, or PPE for the general population to contemplate a reopening. If those things can be ramped up in the next few weeks, then I would think it could be done.

Exactly, we can and should accept a certain level of risk during our daily economic activities, but risks has to be controlled and mitigated to a certain level first. Widespread testing is one of them, and I think widespread awareness to hygiene and cleaning is already set in everyone's mindset now, so that's the good news. It's like I know while out driving, there is a chance a drunk driver is on the road, but I do not drive out there during a friday night so I have a bigger chance of avoiding said drunk driver, same rule applies here. You can't have your liberty if you do not have your life at first.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

SARS and MERS (remember H1N1) are ... CORONAVIRUSES. There's not much new under the sun, folks. CoronaVirus IS going to be around. It was around. It will continue to be around. It is only breaking news to the unwashed, who hide under their bed covers trembling as they learn for the first time from the media that CoronaVirus is going to be around indefinitely. There is no reference in any of these stories to the fact that it HAS been around for decades

Just to clear up some statements in your post...

SARS and MERS are coronaviruses. H1N1 is not a coronavirus, it is an orthomyxovirus.

Coronaviruses come from the Coronaviridae family. The new coronavirus is called the SARS-Cov-2 virus.

The 6 other coronaviruses have been around for many years, but SARS-Cov-2 is new and has not been around for decades.

Lysol kills all viruses in the Coronaviridae family. The virus the Lysol is referencing in "Human Coronavirus" are the four coronaviruses that cause the common cold, which are 229E virus, NL63 virus, OC43 virus, and HKU1 virus.

 

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[Kak]

 

[James Klymus]

If the entire US population were exposed that would be around 660k deaths, or more than an order of magnitude worse than a typical flu season.

The entire US population is not infected with the flu every year. Likewise the entire population will not be infected with the coronavirus. That is a purely hypothetical situation and is not productive to ponder over, because it won't happen.

As we've seen in Italy, NYC etc. if it really gets out of hand that is not even guaranteed.

Italy has a higher population of elderly people, they smoke more, and they have poor air quality in the north where the outbreak has taken the biggest toll.

Too many coronavirus patients, too few ventilators: Outlook in US could get bad, quickly

As we face potentially 'the largest workforce crisis in our generation,' hospitals are bracing for ventilator shortages amid the coronavirus outbreak.

www.usatoday.com

“The capacity in northern Italy hospitals is a preview of a movie that is about to play in the United States,” said Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins University surgeon and health policy expert. “The best two indicators of what things will be like in the U.S. are the number of COVID-related deaths in Italy and the number of ICU beds.”

Now why hasn't that happened here? Is it the social distancing? Wasn't social distancing and stay at home orders accounted for in the estimates for the effects of this virus on our hospitals?

Right now my judgment is that there is not enough testing capacity, workers for tracing, or PPE for the general population to contemplate a reopening. If those things can be ramped up in the next few weeks, then I would think it could be done.

What do you suppose we do in the mean time? What if they can't make enough PPE for the general population (if it even proves to be necessary for the general population)? Who will pay for me to wear a mask? I'm not buying any. Will we have to wait around until someone comes up with a vaccine?

The problem that people who are "pro lockdown" never think about, is the fact that this is not sustainable. We can't stay in our homes indefinitely. We here in America won't, because we're too damn stubborn and rebellious.

What works in theory won't necessarily work in practice. And the lockdown theory does not work for human beings who have free will. It sounds good, in theory, and works, in theory, but in practice, not everyone will do it.

If you're afraid of getting sick, stay at home. If you're not afraid of getting sick, go about your business.

If you say "but you'll spread it to other people if you go out", yes that's true, I'll spread it to other people who are ALSO willing to take the risk, not the people locked up in their house. The "everybody quarantine" method is extremely crude and not well thought out, and doesn't account for real world scenarios, only theoretical scenarios that will never happen.