The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[ravenspear]

NY has released the results of their study testing 3000 people randomly selected at grocery stores.

It found a 13.9% positive for antibodies across the state, varying somewhat by region with NYC having more than upstate.

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

The state's mortality rates remains persistently high at about 7.4%. The antibody testing indicates the actual death rate may be far lower.

www.cnbc.com

Cuomo suggested this data points to an estimated CFR of 0.5% based on what they have so far. Either way, this is the third major data point for antibody testing showing a CFR under 1%, which is good news imo.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

There's a bunch of posts deleted in this thread. I thought this was not done on this forum, or are cringy posts from moderators an exception?

Would it be possible to remove account and posts?

Due to a change in career, I'm trying to remove any information about myself from the internet. So it would be much appreciated if the mods could remove my account and posts. I did notice this thread...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

The least you can do is to give an explanation.

Well, you got a response even if it is a coward’s response nothing burger response with a side order of bullshit. Too bad that no one has screenshots.

 

[MTF]

NY has released the results of their study testing 3000 people randomly selected at grocery stores.

It found a 13.9% positive for antibodies across the state, varying somewhat by region with NYC having more than upstate.

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

The state's mortality rates remains persistently high at about 7.4%. The antibody testing indicates the actual death rate may be far lower.

www.cnbc.com

Cuomo suggested this data points to an estimated CFR of 0.5% based on what they have so far. Either way, this is the third major data point for antibody testing showing a CFR under 1%, which is good news imo.

To add to that some additional numbers from worldometers:

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78% [source]

Waiting for someone to say that this means that we need to continue to prevent people from moving and keep them locked up in 3, 2, 1...

Oh, it's already right there in the article in the source:

"It means a lot of us in NYC have been infected. But that's not surprising news - we've seen high levels of cases for over a month. It means the virus is STILL spreading in NYC. It means that the MAJORITY of us are still very susceptible! It means we still need to #StayHome," said Craig Spencer, a Manhattan emergency room doctor, Ebola survivor and prominent social media voice during the crisis.

@GIlman, I'm sure you're enjoying yet another voice of "reason" considering one of your previous posts:

This is disheartening how such information is being misapplied and this is the third time I’ve come across a similar printed quote or reference. They are essentially saying - here is evidence that a significant group of people had prior exposure, mild symptoms, and have developed immunity.

To which the logical conclusion SHOULD be that the mortality rate is lower than previously stated and the current approach needs to be reconsidered.

Instead, the ILLOGICAL conclusion they reach is, even more people are infected without symptoms and can spread the disease without knowing, therefore we need to continue to prevent people from moving and keep them locked up.

 

[Contrarian]

Well, this is the funniest standoff I've ever heard of: Coronavirus: church standoff ends, priest to be taken to court - Cyprus Mail

"A standoff between residents of the village of Erimi, Limassol, and police ended late on Thursday, several hours after the former had holed themselves up in a church.

Earlier, a group of pilgrims apparently visiting the Ayios (Saint) Georgios Spileon church in Erimi, Limassol, to mark his name day, sought refuge inside to avoid getting booked by police for an illegal gathering.

A police spokesman confirmed the standoff started in the morning after authorities were notified of a service taking place at the church in the presence of the public. The spokesman said there were between 20 to 25 people involved.

Around 20 cars were parked outside the small church, apparently abandoned by their owners some of whom were spotted leaving the scene on foot when officers arrived.

Around 3pm police called in reinforcements and a paddy wagon when 70 youngsters from the nearby village showed up to ask the officers to leave.

Tensions rose briefly, but no incidents occurred. The police eventually departed."

 

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[loop101]

So it sounds like heat, humidity, and UV light, reduce the half-life of CV19. I guess humidifiers and sunlamps will be selling out now.

 

[loop101]

Interesting they are talking about putting UV lights inside people's lungs, to kill CV19. Kind of like an endoscopy.

 

[c_morris]

In case anyone was wondering if media manipulation is real.

http://instagr.am/p/B_VZ7VKJ6JM/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/B_VZ7VKJ6JM/?igshid=lymo16xzx38v

 

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[ChickenHawk]

So it sounds like heat, humidity, and UV light, reduce the half-life of CV19. I guess humidifiers and sunlamps will be selling out now.

Funny, I bought three different UV lights from Amazon in late January when this started looking like a potential problem. Of those three lights, two are currently unavailable. The third one is still available, but has doubled in price (from $37 to $76).

Oddly enough, they became harder to find only a week after I'd purchased them, which means that anyone who tries to buy one for a reasonable price now is like three months too late.

It's crazy to consider how many things have become harder to find. A few months ago, this would've seened unthinkable.

 

[hellolin]

So it sounds like heat, humidity, and UV light, reduce the half-life of CV19. I guess humidifiers and sunlamps will be selling out now.

View attachment 32491

You mean Florida will be selling out?

 

[Bearcorp]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=262011371856679

View: https://www.facebook.com/news.com.au/videos/262011371856679/

 

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[James Klymus]

Illinois’ stay-at-home order will extend through May 30, require masks in public due to coronavirus

CHICAGO — Illinois Governor JB Pritzker announced the state will extend its stay-at-home order through May 30 on Thursday, although the modified order will slightly ease some restrictions while imp…

wgntv.com

Oh joy

Here are some of the modifications that will be included in Pritzker’s stay-at-home order, which takes effect May 1-31:

• PARKS REOPENING: Some state parks will reopen starting May 1, although visitors will still need to follow social distancing guidelines. Fishing and boating in groups of no more than two people will be permitted. Here’s a list of which parks are reopening in Illinois.
• GOLF: Golf will be permitted under “strict safety guidelines,” so long as proper social distancing is followed on the course.
• NEW ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES: Greenhouses, garden centers and nurseries may re-open as essential businesses. Animal grooming services may also re-open. In addition to following social distancing requirements, they must require employees and customers to wear a face covering.
  
• NON-ESSENTIAL RETAIL: Retail stores not designated as essential businesses and operations may re-open to fulfill telephone and online orders through pick-up outside the store and delivery.
  
• FACE COVERINGS: Beginning May 1, individuals who are over two years old and medically able will be required to wear a face-covering or a mask when in public indoor spaces like stores, or any other public place where they can’t maintain a six-foot social distance.
  
• ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES AND MANUFACTURING: Essential businesses and manufacturers will be required to provide face-coverings to all employees who are not able to maintain six-feet of social distancing, as well as follow new requirements that maximize social distancing and prioritize the well-being of employees and customers. This will include occupancy limits for essential businesses and precautions such as staggering shifts and operating only essential lines for manufacturers.
  
• SCHOOLS: Educational institutions may allow and establish procedures for pick-up of necessary supplies or student belongings. Dormitory move-outs must follow public health guidelines, including social distancing.
• HOSPITALS AND SURGERY CENTERS: Surgi-centers and hospitals will be allowed to offer certain elective surgeries for non-life-threatening conditions, starting on May 1. Facilities will need to meet specific criteria, including testing surgery patients to ensure they don’t have C0VlD-19.

I can tell you first hand people are not staying home. There shouldnt be traffic jams during a stay at home order, yet I'm in one every day.

I keep judging how many people are staying home by the traffic i experience, because i drive a lot, and it has gone up and up ever since the stay at home order started.

"FACE COVERINGS: Beginning May 1, individuals who are over two years old and medically able will be required to wear a face-covering or a mask when in public indoor spaces like stores, or any other public place where they can’t maintain a six-foot social distance."

Good luck enforcing that. At least there arent any fines or possible JAIL time (yet) like the one in texas that people on here were talking about earlier. Luckily MOST police departments have common sense, and refused to enforce the use of masks.

As a side note: I think it's good that we're hearing about police departments not enforcing ridiculous policies that our "leaders" are creating. At the end of the day, those are the people who would become the minions of the government (no disrespect to any police officers) if an authoritarian situation were to occur. And it seems they arent very open to comply, here in america at least.

 

[Kak]

It's crazy to consider how many things have become harder to find. A few months ago, this would've seened unthinkable.

Once again, you can thank our lovely politicans for moving the market for anything resembling "coronavirus supplies" to the black market. Left, right, up or down... Price fixing is a SHIT policy.

I would currently pay $1000/per for 2 covid antibody tests right now. NOPE, they are $10 and out of stock and only for people with special credentials and illegal to sell to me at my market price.

 

[ChickenHawk]

Once again, you can thank our lovely politicans for moving the market for anything resembling "coronavirus supplies" to the black market. Left, right, up or down... Price fixing is a SHIT policy.

I see what you're saying. In this case, though, I think the shortage is due to the fact people purchased a year's worth of lamps in the span of a couple of weeks, and supplies haven't yet been replenished. I haven't checked, but I'm betting my lamps were made in China, which also doesn't help.

My theory could be wrong though. This is all just pure speculation on my part.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

USPS has been in a tough situation since 2006 but the Coronavirus is going to make it even worse and if the executive branch succeeds in gaining more control over USPS, shipping rates are definitely going up which will suck for both USPS and anyone in e-commerce.

Trump confirms that he is considering using an emergency loan to exert more control of the cash-strapped US Postal Service

Trump confirmed Washington Post reporting that he wants to require the Postal Service to charge higher rates on its package delivery services.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[ChrisV]

I see what you're saying. In this case, though, I think the shortage is due to the fact people purchased a year's worth of lamps in the span of a couple of weeks, and supplies haven't yet been replenished. I haven't checked, but I'm betting my lamps were made in China, which also doesn't help.

My theory could be wrong though. This is all just pure speculation on my part.

If that's the case, there is going to be really serious problems in the future. If we impose tarriffs on China or continue this trade war we are going to royally F*ck ourselves.

This post was from another thread:

There is only one company (as far as I know) that sells gum base in the United States and I don’t want to rely on them because that violates the Commandment of CONTROL. I can get the same ingredients [in China] 1000 times cheaper. It probably doesn’t sound that exciting but I am so excited right now. Importing goods seams like a great idea to my partner & I.

I'm thinking to myself "yea... don't get your hopes up, if these trade wars continue like they're likely to, you can expect the price of most chinese goods to be priced right out of the market"

 

[hellolin]

Once again, you can thank our lovely politicans for moving the market for anything resembling "coronavirus supplies" to the black market. Left, right, up or down... Price fixing is a SHIT policy.

I would currently pay $1000/per for 2 covid antibody tests right now. NOPE, they are $10 and out of stock and only for people with special credentials.

I think they killed that idea after everyone and their mom knows the news of rich people and their celebeiry frien

USPS has been in a tough situation since 2006 but the Coronavirus is going to make it even worse and if the executive branch succeeds in gaining more control over USPS, shipping rates are definitely going up which will suck for both USPS and anyone in e-commerce.

Trump confirms that he is considering using an emergency loan to exert more control of the cash-strapped US Postal Service

Trump confirmed Washington Post reporting that he wants to require the Postal Service to charge higher rates on its package delivery services.

www.businessinsider.com

That would be the least of their worries, supply chain and manufacture capabilities are going to change out of this In China.

 

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[hellolin]

If that's the case, there is going to be really serious problems in the future. If we impose tarriffs on China or continue this trade war we are going to royally F*ck ourselves.

This post was from another thread:



I'm thinking to myself "yea... don't get your hopes up, if these trade wars continue like they're likely to, you can expect the price of most Chinese goods to be priced right out of the market"

Chris, I think China signed the trade deal in early April, agreeing to buy additional goods from the US for the next many years that Trump demanded. That's the last I heard. But yes for many others who are eCommerce fast laner here, it would be bonkers if they do not prepare for any changes to international shipping and supply chain uncertainties after this.

 

[Kak]

I see what you're saying. In this case, though, I think the shortage is due to the fact people purchased a year's worth of lamps in the span of a couple of weeks, and supplies haven't yet been replenished. I haven't checked, but I'm betting my lamps were made in China, which also doesn't help.

My theory could be wrong though. This is all just pure speculation on my part.

They wouldn't have bought a year worth of anything if the retailers had managed inventory as a business should, through supply and demand.

In states that did enforce this, you had employees buying the stuff before it even hit the shelves. You had store owners keeping things for themselves...

In states that were not enforcing this; some retailers thought they were being morally justifiable by limiting how many you could buy, and still selling through their entire supply in 3 hours. Others were poor operators and one day their shelves were out.

Why? Because these items are more valuable than they were in January. Nothing is morally right about not being able to serve paying customers at a market price.

If you had the last sewing needle on the planet... The last one that anyone would be able to get or produce for a LONG time... How valuable is that needle? It certainly isn't a 5 cent needle anymore. Our politicians would call you a price gouger, but the market price is perhaps ten thousand times higher than 5 cents. The cost to make the needle is irrelevant; as is last year’s market price.

 

[Kak]

I think they killed that idea after everyone and their mom knows the news of rich people and their celebeiry frien

Is this a question?

 

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[ChrisV]

@ChrisV I agree with you on a lot of what you said, but let me one up you on a couple of points.

First off, before reading TFM and quitting my day job, I was working in Pharmaceutical Biotechs and Bioengineering and, believe me, there is 0 good will in that field. I have talked about vaccine patents a lot in this thread as this is my field of study and I would have loved to dabble in it again if I smelled a good opportunity.
Vaccines are not free and they are not made to eradicate diseases. They are products a company pours millions in research and development to make, they protect them with continually renewed IP patents, and the greatest joy of a vaccine manufacturer is to see a government add his product to the list of mandatory vaccines.
There is a reason why investing in Pharmaceutical companies is one of the safest investments ever. People can stop using their cars, can eat less if the money is tight... But if the doctor prescribes you something and tells you that you will go blind if you don't buy it, will you really skip that?
The heart behind mandatory vaccination is good, we need that for certain diseases. But when you start asking which vaccines should be added to the list, who pays for them and who gets that money... suddenly its a whole new discussion where ethics go out the window.

As for Bill Gates, he is no angel either. If you're a bit of an internet geek, read up on Microsoft's EEE strategy and you will start seeing how much they strangle the competition by pretending to help it. Billie himself used to sell operating systems for computers, but now his business is in selling the data he acquires through operating systems. The running joke right now is that the worst malware you could get on Windows 10, is Windows 10 itself.
So when you think of him as a data salesman, does it surprise you that he's a pioneer in skin-chips and vaccines that can be tracked with computers? Is that really what African children who can barely get enough food really need?

And my final point is, yes, Africa is the testing ground for all manners of vaccines and drugs. And this is not an anecdote. I personally worked with the US government on research done for curing the Leishmania disease in North Africa. We benefited from the research and got drugs and equipment as aid but the goal was never to help cure a disease that hit the people there, that was a secondary benefit. The goal for the US government was to have a cure for something a soldier could catch when deployed in the middle east or elsewhere.

There are no angels when money is involved, so don't ask if there will be a Corona vaccine, but ask who will pay for it, and who will get that money. The worldwide panic is literally a money printing machine waiting for someone to start it.

I meant to get back to this. I agree for the most part.

I'm fully aware of the issues with Big Pharma.

A while back one of my doctor friends and I were talking about how pharmaceutical companies will send attractive women that sleep with doctors as their pharmaceutical reps. It's a big problem. And some doctors were a little geeky in High School, so they'll gladly take up an opportunity to bang a hot pharmaceutical rep.

There's also the issue of patents. Pharmacutical companies often change one atom in a medication just so they can renew the patent. They claim that this new one is more effective, and maybe they're right or maybe it's just advertising noise. It's hard to tell especially if the studies were funded by said company.

But speaking of advertising, studies show that pharmaceutical advertising has a very large impact on the prescribing habits of doctors.

Do not get sold on drug advertising - Harvard Health

While the job of drug advertising is to sell a product, not to help the consumer, men can still use the information as a starting point to talk with their doctor about their health....

www.health.harvard.edu

So yes, the pharmaceutical industry certainly has enough crookedness to go around.

That being said, a company having a profit motive is not evidence that a substance is harmful. Every item in your home was made by a company with a profit motive. Sure companies have incentives to lie about harmful effects. They also have incentives to cover up natural treatments that may work better. For example other studies have shown that physical exercise is just as effective as antidepressants at alleviating depression.

Exercise is an all-natural treatment to fight depression - Harvard Health

Antidepressants aren't the only solution for depression. Research shows that exercise works as well as antidepressants for some people, although exercise alone isn't enough for someone with severe ...

www.health.harvard.edu

But has your psychiatrist ever prescribed Exercise? Despite the fact that 'kickbacks' are illegal - your psychiatrist still prescribes antidepressants. The reason for this is debatable. The compliance rate for freaking meditation is astronomically low, so good luck getting patients to comply with exercise.

But again, while pharmaceutical companies have incentives to lie, incentives are not evidence. In court you couldn't find someone guilty just because they had a motive. You have to show actual evidence. And science works i a similar way.

It is something to be conscious of, but anyone making definitive claims without evidence... I'm skeptical of.

This is a complex and nuanced issue but I think in general the world is better off because Pharmacutical compnies exist. If you could just snap your fingers and make all the Pharmacutical companies dissapear, I think the world would be in much worse shape.

These subtly nuanced conversations are ones I will have, and they're arguments I will acknowledge. Ones stating that "vaccines have mercury and baby bits" are not. To me that's just gobbildy gook.

 

[Lyinx]

Chris, I think China signed the trade deal in early April, agreeing to buy additional goods from the US for the next many years that Trump demanded. That's the last I heard. But yes for many others who are eCommerce fast laner here, it would be bonkers if they do not prepare for any changes to international shipping and supply chain uncertainties after this.

The only difference that a trade agreement would make (for my business) is whether or not we need to pay tariffs. After that it looks something like this:
___________________________________________________________
China cost:
cost per item + ___ % tariff + shipping cost per piece = landed cost
add in 4 to 6 months advance ordering (to get the best shipping costs) and figure out what interest rates are, and add a percentage in there for warehouse space, because you're stocking a half years supply...
if there is uncertainty in the market, then it needs to be accounted for.
____________________________________________________________
US Mfg cost:
cost of item + shipping cost per piece = landed cost
does it take much warehouse space? or are we getting it with a local vendor that we get supplies from every week anyway? If we need to account for warehouse space, then figure that in, otherwise, don't worry about it (mostly don't worry about it)

Buying US made is much easier than imported, but imports beat local made in price most of the time.
Tariffs make the decision to go local easier.

Way off topic! My point was, it matters what the businesses in each country feel like towards the other countries businesses. If American companies' supply managers feel that China is a threat to their supply chain in the future, then they will buy local even if price is +___% as long as it doesn't go over a certain limit.

Biased? Yes! Absolutely! Still doesn't change the way that supply chain managers think. Right now I see a LOT of anti-Import feelings out there. If things get much worse it will become even more so. We WILL see some jobs coming back to the US over this, there is no doubt about it.

 

[GIlman]

Hi Cris.
What a weak answer you give me, a Forbes article with no real science to back it up: "Don't worry, is the good mercury, not the bad mercury!" that argument is not against me but againts the periodic table.

Anyway, this thread should be about giving value. Here is a real scientist that works in Switzerland, he has patents of the compound he talks about. One that can kill C0VlD-19 and many other viruses.

https://lbry.tv/@Kalcker:7/Why-ClO2-works-against-C0VlD-19:2?r=3HjkA7vfUjLE4gTappooSekm2PuYr5Du

He shows you things on the microscope, and explains everything with great detail. And you can search and there are hundreds if not thousands of testimonies of real people cured by this stuff (from many illness). And he doesn't make any money selling it since is a cheap substance that is found everywhere in the world.
Recently he got his youtube chanel closed, and his paypal account closed too.
Conspiracy?
You think I don't have anything better to do than be saying Bill Gates and WHO are corrupt? Is it too much to ask to not get inyected with mercury, aluminum and the human DNA that you recognize it's inside the vaccines? Are we not FREE not to be lab rats?
If anything good comes from this virus is we discussing how corrupt WHO really is.

I am extremely skeptical of this guys claims. He makes very broad sweeping claims with big words and a microscope about covid, but there isn’t really evidence to support his claims.

1) Covid has to be able to get through the cell membrane, research has shown that this happens by the virus binding to ACE2 Receptors and using a vacuole protease system to enter the cell. Red blood cells are basically bags of hemoglobin, all the cellular machinery and DNA is essentially stripped out as they mature. First RBC are not classically listed as cells with ACE2 receptor. Second RBC lack vacuoles and other cellular machinery. So there it’s Hard to imagine how the virus would get into the cell.

COVID-19:Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (C0VlD-19) is an infectious acute respiratory caused by the novel coronavirus. The virus is the positive-strand RNA one with high homology to bat coronavirus. The pathogenic mechanism of the new coronavirus is still unclear, which is a significant obstacle to the...

chemrxiv.org

2) As far as I can tell the theory of covid binding to hemoglobin is based on the paper above. This is the only research reference I can find even addressing this, and the paper provides no references of prior papers to substantiate their findings. This paper is entirely based on computer modeling of proteins. I guess we could call it in-computero, not even in vitro, so the binding of covid to hemoglobin has apparently never been molecularly demonstrated.

3) Even if it was true that covid could enter RBC, there are a huge number of hemoglobin molecules, since there is no intracellular machinery in a RBC, I’m not sure how the virus would be able to replicate. Meaning that you would have to have a huge number of virus particles produced in other cells then enter into RBC to bind up all the hemoglobin and have a significant effect.

There are other reasons in addition to these, but it appears highly implausible that covid has any effect on hemoglobin to begin with so the rest of his claims for treating covid are highly suspect.

For the record, I have no pony in this race, hydroxychloquine is cheap and generally available. It appears hopeful still that it has good utility but not perfect. ClO2 is also presumably cheap, and if it works I would applaud its use. But I want this scientist to show me real reproducible evidence, I don’t see this at all, it appears to me an attempt to appeal to people that don’t have experience in the medical sciences. At least that’s how his presentation and explanations comes off to me.

 

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[ChrisV]

I guess we could call it in-computero, not even in vitro, so the binding of covid to hemoglobin has apparently never been molecularly demonstrated.

There's actually a term for that: in-silico (in silicone)

But thank you. Gilman's tact is always a reminder that I should stop being such a dick.

 

[G-Man]

Why? Because these items are more valuable than they were in January. Nothing is morally right about not being able to serve paying customers at a market price.

I'm not 100% sure I believe price gouging is an actual thing. If I step back from my feelings, it really just seems like a pejorative for supply and demand.

I remember when I was about 11 or 12 my I was with my grandpa at the local public golf course, eating a gross hot dog and listening to a bunch of old farmers bullshitting. The topic of conversation frequently circled around complaints about the low price of corn. That year I vividly remember they were dumping corn along the train tracks and leaving it to rot because it wasn't worth transporting.

Driving back onto the course in the cart, my grandpa looked at me and said "Don't ever complain that you have to sell something for less than what you think it's worth. Don't ever complain you have to pay more for something than you think it's worth. Something is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay for it."

I frequently remember that phrase "Something's worth whatever somebody is willing to pay for it".

Dude didn't have a day of education after high school and probably hasn't read a book since Eisenhower was president, but still understands economics better than about everyone I've ever met. He's a millionaire a few times over. He lives in an 1,100 square foot shack of a farm house and still gardens two acres by hand at age 85.

 

[Tommo]

I'm not 100% sure I believe price gouging is an actual thing. If I step back from my feelings, it really just seems like a pejorative for supply and demand.

I remember when I was about 11 or 12 my I was with my grandpa at the local public golf course, eating a gross hot dog and listening to a bunch of old farmers bullshitting. The topic of conversation frequently circled around complaints about the low price of corn. That year I vividly remember they were dumping corn along the train tracks and leaving it to rot because it wasn't worth transporting.

Driving back onto the course in the cart, my grandpa looked at me and said "Don't ever complain that you have to sell something for less than what you think it's worth. Don't ever complain you have to pay more for something than you think it's worth. Something is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay for it."

I frequently remember that phrase "Something's worth whatever somebody is willing to pay for it".

Dude didn't have a day of education after high school and probably hasn't read a book since Eisenhower was president, but still understands economics better than about everyone I've ever met. He's a millionaire a few times over. He lives in an 1,100 square foot shack of a farm house and still gardens two acres by hand at age 85.

And he just broke my dilemna about an item I can't sell for what I think it's worth. Wonderful bit of serindipity here @G-Man thanks

 

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[Cyberthal]

Hi. I've read some of the "hot" posts but not the whole thread. I have followed COVID19 for a while, due to living in China. Just wanted to make a point I haven't seen elsewhere:

COVID19 lethality correlates with intensity of exposure. Severity of government and individual countermeasures correlates with hospitalizations. There's a delay between exposure and hospitalization.

So the typical pattern is that individual and government countermeasures undershoot, leading to an hospitalization spike, leading to overshoot.

Vulnerability to COVID19 varies by country, culture, weather, population density, demographic, etc.

The USA certainly fits the undershoot overshoot pattern. But comparing the USA to a country such as Sweden, and concluding that lockdown was unnecessary for the USA, is apples to oranges. The population of the USA is very different than Sweden's.

There's no fixed number for COVID19 CFR, because intensity of exposure matters, and that intensity is self-moderating due to human countermeasures.

A purely selfish authoritative epidemiologist should predict a death rate that takes into account the effect of his advice on the death rate, which requires understanding not only the contagion but also societal preferences and competence.

It's much like making public predictions about the stock market.

Authoritarian China can tolerate higher casualty rates than Western democracies, which is one of the reasons the real CFR declined as COVID19 went global.

Maybe this has already been said.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

I am not sure how familiar everybody here is with a leak of a study in Germany that was done for the government: ordered on March 18th, delivered on the 22nd I think. Felt like early days. It described a really dire worst case scenario, of course.

After the government had initially stated that people should not worry and it isn't worse than the flu, after the study they said that things might get really bad. The study suggested creating fear so that people comply with restrictions, explicitly suggesting to target children, telling them that they will kill their parents or grandparents if they are not careful. They also suggested appealing to the primal fear of suffocation. I have seen examples of the latter in the media. The wording was pretty much: people don't understand what dying because of the virus means. It means you are drowning ... just not in water.

Now I am wondering if anybody here can tell if a.) that is an appropriate comparison and b.) if anybody has seen evidence of authorities creating that fear in children this way. Sounds traumatizing to me.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Hi. I've read some of the "hot" posts but not the whole thread. I have followed COVID19 for a while, due to living in China. Just wanted to make a point I haven't seen elsewhere:

COVID19 lethality correlates with intensity of exposure. Severity of government and individual countermeasures correlates with hospitalizations. There's a delay between exposure and hospitalization.

So the typical pattern is that individual and government countermeasures undershoot, leading to an hospitalization spike, leading to overshoot.

Vulnerability to COVID19 varies by country, culture, weather, population density, demographic, etc.

The USA certainly fits the undershoot overshoot pattern. But comparing the USA to a country such as Sweden, and concluding that lockdown was unnecessary for the USA, is apples to oranges. The population of the USA is very different than Sweden's.

There's no fixed number for COVID19 CFR, because intensity of exposure matters, and that intensity is self-moderating due to human countermeasures.

A purely selfish authoritative epidemiologist should predict a death rate that takes into account the effect of his advice on the death rate, which requires understanding not only the contagion but also societal preferences and competence.

It's much like making public predictions about the stock market.

Authoritarian China can tolerate higher casualty rates than Western democracies, which is one of the reasons the real CFR declined as COVID19 went global.

Maybe this has already been said.

Right, thanks for pointing things out again. Especially the kind / intensity of exposure.

At some point I read that teenagers are in danger when the virus reaches the lungs early. Usually it resides in throat etc. for a while and there are antibodies when the lung is reached. When that is not the case things are worse.

It is hard to keep everything in mind, but that might also be something that changes the math on cruise ships.

 

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[Lyinx]

Hi. I've read some of the "hot" posts but not the whole thread. I have followed COVID19 for a while, due to living in China. Just wanted to make a point I haven't seen elsewhere:

COVID19 lethality correlates with intensity of exposure. Severity of government and individual countermeasures correlates with hospitalizations. There's a delay between exposure and hospitalization.

So the typical pattern is that individual and government countermeasures undershoot, leading to an hospitalization spike, leading to overshoot.

Vulnerability to COVID19 varies by country, culture, weather, population density, demographic, etc.

The USA certainly fits the undershoot overshoot pattern. But comparing the USA to a country such as Sweden, and concluding that lockdown was unnecessary for the USA, is apples to oranges. The population of the USA is very different than Sweden's.

There's no fixed number for COVID19 CFR, because intensity of exposure matters, and that intensity is self-moderating due to human countermeasures.

A purely selfish authoritative epidemiologist should predict a death rate that takes into account the effect of his advice on the death rate, which requires understanding not only the contagion but also societal preferences and competence.

It's much like making public predictions about the stock market.

Authoritarian China can tolerate higher casualty rates than Western democracies, which is one of the reasons the real CFR declined as COVID19 went global.

Maybe this has already been said.

I had heard about the exposure time before, thanks for sharing that!
Do you know, does the exposure to your own self make it worse (if you are in a room with yourself, you'll expose yourself to your own self... ???
Or would you be better off going for a hike in the woods/nature/outside away from other people so that you don't expose yourself to yourself?

 

[David Harrison]

The world is full of legitimate scientists and engineers who just want to practice their craft and be otherwise left alone.
They contribute greatly to the service of mankind. They have no desire to run the world or tell everyone else what they must or must not do.
They are not into falsifying or misusing data to fit unprovable theories, and most of all, they are not interested in using their technologies to control people.
To these, we salute!

Wood, Patrick. Technocracy: The Hard Road to World Order (pp. 12-13). Coherent Publishing.