The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[Ocean Man]

Main reason I stopped posting updates from my family here. Most people seem interested in garbage than reality.

It’s so sad that I have a knot in my throat. Like something pressing on your chest with stress. Reports from the people who live there are just horrific. Feeling that pain removes the desire to debate on off-hand couch heroes posts.

Right? This thread just somehow turned into conspiracy theories, Trump VS Biden, and basically similar to the COVID19 thread.

I don't care what your conspiracy theories are or who is considered a real "warrior". Right now I have family members listening to air raid alarms every day and wondering if they'll wake up alive or not. All I care about is the safety of Ukrainians and my family members.

 

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[AceVentures]

Assuming CCP capture of US elites in government: what would they do?

Inept leadership for one. Not by accident but by design. Biden not a moron, and not a decision maker. An actor at best. Three letter agencies in coordination with foreign strategy.

Withdrawal from Afgh leaving behind an army's worth of equipment. Equipment evac and share between CCP and Iranian forces strengthening the regions forces.

Collapse of US middle class and psychological warfare on citizens. Double down on contradictions. Lockdowns, masks, breaking down social assembly for easier manipulation of the masses.

Demonization of Russia: gives overt excuse for Russia to form stronger bond with CCP/Iran/Taliban alliance. SWIFT sanctions - rise in energy prices and damning tax on US/West already crumbling economy. Force gov to ban domestic production and invest tax payer funds into negative ROI "green" energy plays. Distract and buy time until economic pain grows further.

Big Tech, media, academia, global orgs coordination with same CCP agents to condition masses, paralyze with fear, and ultimately offer solution out: obedience to new regime.

Once the debt bubble pops - agents placed at helms of US and western nations would have positioned CCP for prime takeover.

Therein comes social/financial control mechanisms, enforced by the same CCP model used in China. But at a global scale.

This is how an upcoming global power could overtake the existing leading powerhouse, the USA.

Assuming you were China and you had captured the elites of the west, what would you do?

 

[DayIFly]

This is not a serious effort or someone made some serious planning mistakes.

This is a serious effort, but it's not the US approach of bombing everything to smithereens and then rolling in. Why? Because they care about the Ukrainians. They only engage in small skirmishes because they are probing. When they observe a stronger resistance, they move back a bit and continue surrounding them. But the Ukrainian army thinks that they are fleeing from them. All the important positions and battalions are being surrounded right now. After this is done, the Russians will simply wait until they surrender. Klitschko posted earlier that Kiev is surrounded and then deleted the post, well it is almost surrounded.

They need the Ukrainian army for after the war, they will be incorporated into the new regime. Their generals went to the same schools 40 years ago. They also use second-rate gear, and the less experienced soldiers. After this is done, the professionals will come in, fresh and all, to establish order and prevent the young and inexperienced ones from lashing out at the civilians like the winners always do in war.

That's why there is still water, electricity and internet. People can still communicate and make sure their relatives are safe. The Russians left this all intact. After they secured the sky, they could have bombed everything á la Iraq, but they haven't. I don't think that they can lose this at this point, but the civilian casualties will now depend on how many of them listened to Zelenskyy and are ready to take their weapons and go out to die a pointless death so the Western media can publish some nice photos...

 

[EmotionEngine]

This is a serious effort, but it's not the US approach of bombing everything to smithereens and then rolling in. Why? Because they care about the Ukrainians. They only engage in small skirmishes because they are probing. When they observe a stronger resistance, they move back a bit and continue surrounding them. But the Ukrainian army thinks that they are fleeing from them. All the important positions and battalions are being surrounded right now. After this is done, the Russians will simply wait until they surrender. Klitschko posted earlier that Kiev is surrounded and then deleted the post, well it is almost surrounded.

They need the Ukrainian army for after the war, they will be incorporated into the new regime. Their generals went to the same schools 40 years ago. They also use second-rate gear, and the less experienced soldiers. After this is done, the professionals will come in, fresh and all, to establish order and prevent the young and inexperienced ones from lashing out at the civilians like the winners always do in war.

That's why there is still water, electricity and internet. People can still communicate and make sure their relatives are safe. The Russians left this all intact. After they secured the sky, they could have bombed everything á la Iraq, but they haven't. I don't think that they can lose this at this point, but the civilian casualties will now depend on how many of them listened to Zelenskyy and are ready to take their weapons and go out to die a pointless death so the Western media can publish some nice photos...

Oh so sure you are. We'll see.

 

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[simxela]

This is a serious effort, but it's not the US approach of bombing everything to smithereens and then rolling in. Why? Because they care about the Ukrainians. They only engage in small skirmishes because they are probing. When they observe a stronger resistance, they move back a bit and continue surrounding them. But the Ukrainian army thinks that they are fleeing from them. All the important positions and battalions are being surrounded right now. After this is done, the Russians will simply wait until they surrender. Klitschko posted earlier that Kiev is surrounded and then deleted the post, well it is almost surrounded.

They need the Ukrainian army for after the war, they will be incorporated into the new regime. Their generals went to the same schools 40 years ago. They also use second-rate gear, and the less experienced soldiers. After this is done, the professionals will come in, fresh and all, to establish order and prevent the young and inexperienced ones from lashing out at the civilians like the winners always do in war.

That's why there is still water, electricity and internet. People can still communicate and make sure their relatives are safe. The Russians left this all intact. After they secured the sky, they could have bombed everything á la Iraq, but they haven't. I don't think that they can lose this at this point, but the civilian casualties will now depend on how many of them listened to Zelenskyy and are ready to take their weapons and go out to die a pointless death so the Western media can publish some nice photos...

What is the source of this information? I don't see it mentioned anywhere.

 

[nothingness]

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are full-pledged NATO members, and attacking any NATO member will mean full-on war. Especially now as all the world leaders have understood that Putin is a warmonger. No one will ever believe Putin when he says that "I'll just occupy these small countries and that will be the end of it, I promise after that there will be no invasions". That's why the biggest countries are aiding Ukraine so much since all of them have understood that they shouldn't let Putin do whatever he wants in Europe without consequences.

Of course, Baltic countries will not always be safe and when world war happens we will be screwed as we border Russia, but until that happens we will be much safer thanks to being in NATO.

Until Nato mobilise and start shooting at Russians, all those promises are just words on expensive paper.
I highly doubt NATO countries like USA and UK will do shit unless Russia is threatening them directly. They have too much to lose to get into a WW3 conflict over a few small countries. It's a nice thought but not really a realistic one.

 

[Antifragile]

Right? This thread just somehow turned into conspiracy theories, Trump VS Biden, and basically similar to the COVID19 thread.

I don't care what your conspiracy theories are or who is considered a real "warrior". Right now I have family members listening to air raid alarms every day and wondering if they'll wake up alive or not. All I care about is the safety of Ukrainians and my family members.

Thank you for posting this. Thank you.

This is exactly how people with family there feel. All of us just want to know our relatives and friends stay alive.

 

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[Raoul Duke]

There’s only one MAN who would dare give me the raspberry.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

6) As of the 3-4th day estimated 4300 russian soldiers dead. Btw iraq War had something like 4400 US casualities in total; 74 on the first day.

Every news source says that these numbers come from the Ukraine and can't be verified independently. Pretty sure these are propaganda numbers.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Thought my take on the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT didn't age well ... but it is "some banks" that are excluded now.

Just saw the following statement in a German article:

die Finanzsanktionen seien so gewählt, dass sie dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin keinen Vorwand gäben, notwendige Rohstofflieferungen auszusetzen.

which translates to something like:

the financial sanction are chosen in a way that they don't lend themselves as an excuse for president Wladimir Putin to halt important deliveries of raw materials.

Yeah, that is an alternative to what I thought would happen. Just exclude some banks and choose your wording to make it seem like Russia has been excluded from SWIFT completely while still trying to be on good terms with Russia when it comes to trading.
Shows the hypocrisy of the west pretty well.

 

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[Xeon]

I could see this escalating to WW3. While it is still somewhat unlikely right now it is possible because Russia poses a threat to the current world order. Russia has always had intentions to grow Westward as this gives them a tremendous strategic advantage against the west. The former Soviet Union held territories as far as Eastern Germany leaving the west only a narrow attack vector from the west because of the Carpathian mountains and other landmasses that prevent invasion from the south. From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine, Poland, etc. offer a lot of security as long as they are not NATO for Russia against the west. Also, Ukraine has a ton of oil off the coast of Crimea and on the mainland. The west has everything to lose if they lose the energy battle with Russia. Hell, we picked the middle east apart for oil, no doubt we'd do the same in Russia. The only question is how we're gonna do it without a few nukes going off.

Initially, I was thinking that the possibility of WW3 is complete BS, it'll never happen.

But seeing how most of the countries in the world have sanctioned Russia and, in the case of the Western nations, who have started sending tons of military equipment to Ukraine, it seems like most countries are now involved in one way or another. Needless to say, I'm betting US is the one pressuring those on the fence behind the scenes. E.g. "if you're not with us, you're against us"

6) As of the 3-4th day estimated 4300 russian soldiers dead. Btw iraq War had something like 4400 US casualities in total; 74 on the first day.

I call bull on this. Unless US troops are already in Ukraine the past few days fighting for the Ukrainians against the Russians while disguising as Ukrainian soldiers, these numbers are farfetched.

The only other explanation is that Ukraine's army is so far ahead of Russia's. And in order to achieve those figures, the difference between them needs to be equivalent to that of US vs Cyprus.

I can't seem to find any news on how many Ukrainian military casualties are there, only that 300+ civilians have died. Did Western media censored out all these news?

Assuming CCP capture of US elites in government: what would they do?

Inept leadership for one. Not by accident but by design. Biden not a moron, and not a decision maker. An actor at best. Three letter agencies in coordination with foreign strategy.

Withdrawal from Afgh leaving behind an army's worth of equipment. Equipment evac and share between CCP and Iranian forces strengthening the regions forces.

Collapse of US middle class and psychological warfare on citizens. Double down on contradictions. Lockdowns, masks, breaking down social assembly for easier manipulation of the masses.

Demonization of Russia: gives overt excuse for Russia to form stronger bond with CCP/Iran/Taliban alliance. SWIFT sanctions - rise in energy prices and damning tax on US/West already crumbling economy. Force gov to ban domestic production and invest tax payer funds into negative ROI "green" energy plays. Distract and buy time until economic pain grows further.

Big Tech, media, academia, global orgs coordination with same CCP agents to condition masses, paralyze with fear, and ultimately offer solution out: obedience to new regime.

Once the debt bubble pops - agents placed at helms of US and western nations would have positioned CCP for prime takeover.

Therein comes social/financial control mechanisms, enforced by the same CCP model used in China. But at a global scale.

This is how an upcoming global power could overtake the existing leading powerhouse, the USA.

Assuming you were China and you had captured the elites of the west, what would you do?

Interesting insight. If there's going to be a war between China and US one day, I suspect it's going to be China making US implode economically. China's media, branding and network can never beat the US in a hundred years, and if they go the Russian route of taking Taiwan, they're going to end up like Russia.

(*side note, am I the only one feeling creeped out by how the US can get almost the whole world to go against a country which they feel threatened by, without firing a single bullet? And everyone quietly obeys?)



Anyway, there's a solution (albeit a stupid crazy one) which can work to solve the current crisis:

1) The objective behind Russia's invasion is to force Ukraine to never join NATO so they've a security buffer. Because if Ukraine joins, US is going to place its missiles right next to Russia and Russia will become the next Iraq. Potentially 148 million of their population displaced vs Ukraine's 44 million.

2) To fix this, the US, Canada and Mexico *must* sign a treaty with Russia, that allows Russia to build military (missile) bases in Ontario, Canada and the northern regions of Mexico. The actual number of bases to build will match the current number that the US+NATO currently has in and around Europe.

3) At the same time, Russia will pull out troops from Ukraine and Ukraine can join NATO if they want. Now that Ukraine is in NATO, US can build military bases there. Their wet dream. The number of bases to built will be calibrated so that it matches Russia's number of bases.

We will now end up with a situation where Russia has missile bases in US's backyard and US will also have missile bases aiming at Russia from their backyard.

Well, it's your call now, America. It's all about equality and democracy, and less of hypocrisy.

 

[Timmy C]

Not only do you have no control over Russia/Ukraine, but 99% of the news being spread about it is just straight up war propaganda. Fake stuff.

Harry Potter is more real than most of what’s being reported in the news.

 

[MitchC]

Not only do you have no control over Russia/Ukraine, but 99% of the news being spread about it is just straight up war propaganda. Fake stuff.

Harry Potter is more real than most of what’s being reported in the news.

The only thing real in the news are the protest numbers around the world.

Funny how hundreds of thousands protesting against this looks exactly the same as less than 10,000 fringe minority far right extremists protesting against mandates.

Funny how protesting was fine when you are rioting for blm, selfish last week for mandates, and back to being fine again.

 

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[loop101]

Russians raise interest rates from 9.5% to 20%

Russian central bank hikes rate to 20% in emergency move, tells firms to sell FX

The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5% on Monday in an emergency move, and authorities told export-focused companies to sell foreign currency as the rouble tumbled to record lows.

www.reuters.com

 

[MA81]

Well it doesn’t apply to the rest of the world. Apart from shithole countries like Russia, China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and so on, it’s a lot more difficult to put a bullet through your head. Not that it’s not possible, just a lot tougher.

Look at Trump for example. He upset the entire establishment in the US, even the Republicans were opposed to him before he won, and they’re struggling to take him down even to this day. There was no physical force used against him. These things are almost impossible to pull off in the West. What they do in the West is start a court case against you, investigations, that kind of stuff.

Now look at Russia. Navalny is in jail. He got poisoned and almost died. There really is no comparison here…

 

[basedzoomer]

 

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[MitchC]

Here’s an independent journalist in Ukraine. He has an inoperable brain tumour and is reporting on the ground. I believe he’s Australian.

Login • Instagram

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

instagram.com

 

[TonyStark]

Very sad and tragic, especially the last few seconds in the video where you see these civilians marching like soldiers. Honestly, most of the people in the video are not going to make it out alive.

If large parts of the Ukrainian army have already been wiped by the russians, what makes these programmers, business managers and actors actually think they can do anything except to die? Just hide in the underground metro till all these are over, for f*ck's sake.

Your replies are very pessimistic. I’m glad you’d easily let Russia take over your country without any resistance. You don’t understand that most Ukrainians that are fighting are doing so on their own will, and don’t want Russia to take over their country. Not everyone wants to coward like you lol

 

[Simon Angel]

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

Tune in to 7933.00 kHz USB to listen to the radio chatter of Russian soldiers. It's not encrypted so probably some sort of emergency frequency.

One is currently (from what little Russian I understand) requesting backup and repeatedly saying "They're shooting, they're shooting".

 

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[MattR82]

You don’t understand… of course Putin can’t do what the US did in Afghanistan. How will he justify it to Russians when he has been telling them that Ukrainians are our brothers. Russians will rebel if they found how he burned Kiyv to the ground.

So he’s stuck with using his military on the ground. The trouble for him is that his military is VASTLY inferior and unprepared. They may be good at destroying targets with brute force, but they’re not good at the kind of guerilla warfare going on in Ukraine. They SUCK, and badly.

He’s running out of food and fuel, tanks are abandoned along the way, Russian soldiers are surrendering to Ukrainians. They’re totally outmatched.

Now what Putin thought is that in 1-2 days he’ll take Kiyv because the Ukrainian army and Zelensky would be intimidated, the latter would run away to the West and he could claim victory saying “see, he’s a Western agent, I told you” and install a puppet of his own as the government like Medvedchuk who just escaped house arrest in Ukraine.

Also, Russia isn’t a superpower anymore. They have a large QUANTITY of weaponry, soldiers, tanks, airplanes. But most of that is old and outdated and poorly organised. They are used to destroying targets, but not fighting in guerilla warfare against another trained opponent.

Russia isn’t China. They are becoming more like North Korea, a rogue, terrorist regime, with a GDP that’s barely that of Italy.

Let's hope you're right. Sounds like wishful thinking to me but I'd be more than happy to find out that's the truth in the end.

 

[Xeon]

Seems that talks between UA and RU delegation teams have, or will be begining soon at the Belarusian borders. Let's hope they reach a compromise and stop the war.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoGkUmAtlT4&ab_channel=GoodTimesBadTimes

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifxKIhFSuw&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty

Let's hope you're right. Sounds like wishful thinking to me but I'd be more than happy to find out that's the truth in the end.

It's not necessarily great if I'm right, because Putin cannot lose the war and still hold his head on his shoulders, which means he will get more and more desperate. He's put himself in quite an impossible situation. He cannot easily take Ukraine with ground troops, he cannot bomb the shit out of them, and he cannot retreat. The likelihood of internal collapse is growing by the day, oligarchs are getting upset with him, as is the army. Unless they surprise Putin so he doesn't have time to react, Civil War in Russia will mean using the nuclear bomb if necessary (blaming the US and external intelligence agencies for creating an uprising).

 

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[Simon Angel]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoGkUmAtlT4&ab_channel=GoodTimesBadTimes

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifxKIhFSuw&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty



It's not necessarily great if I'm right, because Putin cannot lose the war and still hold his head on his shoulders, which means he will get more and more desperate. He's put himself in quite an impossible situation. He cannot easily take Ukraine with ground troops, he cannot bomb the shit out of them, and he cannot retreat. The likelihood of internal collapse is growing by the day, oligarchs are getting upset with him, as is the army. Unless they surprise Putin so he doesn't have time to react, Civil War in Russia will mean using the nuclear bomb if necessary (blaming the US and external intelligence agencies for creating an uprising).

Yeah, that's what I'm worried and wondering about as well - how desperate Putin might get.

Desperate enough to use nukes as a final "Well, my plans didn't work, so F*ck everyone and F*ck the world."?

We know that the U.S. President needs approval from the secretary of defense and (at least?) one general before launching a nuclear weapon. However, from what I've gathered, Putin can make that decision all by himself.

 

[Antti]

Yeah, that's what I'm worried and wondering about as well - how desperate Putin might get.

Desperate enough to use nukes as a final "Well, my plans didn't work, so f*ck everyone and f*ck the world."?

We know that the U.S. President needs approval from the secretary of defense and (at least?) one general before launching a nuclear weapon. However, from what I've gathered, Putin can make that decision all by himself.

I hope that generals would intervene in that scenario. They know that their lives would be over in minutes if they press the button.

But yeah, it is really worrying.

 

[Marigold]

Isn't cyberwarfare more of a potential?

Schwab already told us it's the next pandemic... ?

 

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[juicey]

If someone wants to see a more detailed explanation of why Russia invaded Ukraine (spoiler alert: it's not about "defending the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine")

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&ab_channel=RealLifeLore

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I hate to be contrarian but..... why does the US need to get involved at all?

Why do the war drums beat so loudly.
Well, we know why... the military industrial complex is vast.
Afghanistan ended, so, we need a new war?


I don't get it.
I have a Russian wife.
I spent a month in Ukraine last year.

Russia and Ukraine have often been at war.
Why do others need to get involved here in national building?


What am I missing here.
This just seems like another distraction for anyone not nearby.

I agree. We had the pandemic show for several years now and it's wearing off. That was like the "blue" show in America. Now it's time for the "red" show. Flip the war switch. Not good.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

If someone wants to see a more detailed explanation of why Russia invaded Ukraine (spoiler alert: it's not about "defending the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine")

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&ab_channel=RealLifeLore

I was aware of the Crimean offshore sites, but not aware of the Crimean water supply factor; that does make a lot of sense that it would be an issue with no Dnieper canal access. I expect to see at least two wars (in Ethiopia and Turkey) within my lifetime due primarily to water supply issues. Worst case scenario is a war between India and China over Brahmaputra River headwaters.

Seems that Russian soldiers destroyed the concrete dam on the North Crimean Canal two days ago

Russian troops destroy Ukrainian dam that blocked water to Crimea - RIA

Russian troops have destroyed a concrete dam built in Ukraine's Kherson Region in 2014 to cut off water to Crimea, the RIA news agency quoted the governor of Russian-annexed Crimea Sergei Aksyonov as saying on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

 

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[Kevin88660]

And Putin himself publicly stated that "it was the greatest tragedy..." in his eyes. He wants to bring it back.

He also has been harassing Russian communist party members recently, the largest opposition in Russia.

What he means as a tragedy was there were ethnic Russian trapped outside Russia. Of course that doesn't give him the right to forcefully reclaim those Russian majority territory.

 

[woken]

Switzerland just took sides with the EU against Russia.

As far as I understand, Switzerland has been neutral for hundreds of years. Not sure if they sanctioned countries though in their neutral period.

Historic times.. and not in a good way.