Swine Flu ... What's Your Take?

[MrPink]

Once it mutates (it will), it will be very deadly.

Why/How do you know this?

Thanks.

 

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[Russ H]

Mr Pink-

I"m just trying to present the latest info on the current strain of H1N1

Most of us have heard of Spanish Flu (aka the great flu pandemic of 1918)

It was considered by many to be the deadliest virus in human history.

Killed 50-100 million people worldwide, in about a year (Remember, this was back before air travel).

I was shocked to learn it was caused by the H1N1 type of influenza virus

The links I've provided throughout the thread pretty much go into this.

This new variant of H1N1 is already the fastest spreading flu on record.

The one thing that helps us is-- it's not killing a high percentage of people.

That's because this particular strain is inefficient-- doesn't have a good binding protein, so it's not very strong (again, read the links).

Flu viruses are known for their ability to mutate (again, the links I provide in this thread discuss this).

And they mutate in the direction of virulence-- the better they bind, the faster they spread.

And the better they bind, the deadlier they will be (again, read the links).

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm not being an alarmist.

Just want to get informed (that's why I've-- you guessed it-- provided the links)

-Russ H.

 

[MrPink]

I just wanted to see if you had information beyond the links provided in this thread.

That's because this particular strain is inefficient-- doesn't have a good binding protein, so it's not very strong (again, read the links).

Just because a disease improves affinity does not mean it will be more deadly. I did not see in any of links the affinity constant between the proteins. Does strong mean low millimolar or nanomolar binding in this case?

Another assumption is that by binding more tightly that the specificity will not change. I did not see in any of the links data supporting that the specificity will remain constant.

Flu viruses are known for their ability to mutate (again, the links I provide in this thread discuss this).

And they mutate in the direction of virulence-- the better they bind, the faster they spread.

Disease do not mutate in the direction of virulence

Diseases don't have a mutation plan - they just mutate and if that strain is successful then it spreads

 

[Russ H]

Just because a disease improves affinity does not mean it will be more deadly. I did not see in any of links the affinity constant between the proteins. Does strong mean low millimolar or nanomolar binding in this case?

Another assumption is that by binding more tightly that the specificity will not change. I did not see in any of the links data supporting that the specificity will remain constant.

Disease do not mutate in the direction of virulence

Diseases don't have a mutation plan - they just mutate and if that strain is successful then it spreads

I'm not a scientist, as can be clearly seen by the way you've picked my words apart.

Are you asking questions you already know the answers to?

If that's the case, why not share what you know with the rest of the forums?

This is a place where we come to learn and grow from each other.

Why not help, instead of trying to make me look stupid?

Any expertise you have on this would be appreciated.

If I've used the wrong words to describe the fact that flu viruses change, then I'm sorry.

Again, I'm a layman-- not a trained scientist--just trying to understand the potential of this in layman's terms.

Thanks,

-Russ H.

 

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[MrPink]

I don't know the answer. My first post, was in the hopes that you knew the answer or came across something new that I had not seen.

I have never heard of anyone being able to predict mutations or affinity/specificity with extreme accuracy so found your statement interesting. So I don't really have much to contribute in terms of the answer.

However, in an effort of contributing (god knows, I have gotten so much from here) can say that predicting structural conformations is very difficult and there are even competitions in doing so (CASP). If someone out there is looking for a problem this one is worth billions. If you want to help you can always play FoldIt.

I sometimes think that certain science terms are merely for job security (Decantation - pour the liquid off of the top).

However, in cases like this - it is important to use the right terms and sadly scientist (maybe also journalists) don't educate the general public. The term stronger is dangerous since it is relative, because you need to know the reference point on an absolute scale or it is useless.

In a fastlane sense, it is like saying I am going to be wealthy in 5 years. Wealth is a relative term - maybe it means: quit your job, have more time with your family, etc...

However, if you define wealth as having million dollars then it is on an absolute scale (quantitive instead of qualitative).

The results in these articles do not explain the science, but make for great headlines.

Swine Flu may mutate and spread (again, I don't know), my point is that this is not known based on the science mentioned.

As a side note, I have learned way more from you Russ than I may ever be able to give back so am in no way trying to make you (or anyone else) look stupid, but the repeated (see links multiple times in your previous post was a little annoying).

Anyway, I will work on not coming across as a jerk in my posts.

 

[Russ H]

Thanks, Mr. Pink, for your thoughtful response.

I'm sorry I beat the "read my links" part to death-- it's just that, on some threads, you've given off the cuff remarks, and I figured this was another one of those.

I am sorry I misread and misinterpreted your post-- I can see, upon rereading it, that you were not intending to make me look stupid-- you were just asking a question (using words I didn't know-- part of the reason I felt you were trying to make me look dumb).

I was under the impression (still am) that viruses mutate. And that part of the essence of a flu virus is that it mutates/changes. The less deadly changes are not noticed (or, at least they are of lesser concern). But the more deadly variations/mutations are what is noticed.

So you are quite correct-- from my understanding, the H1N1 virus will probably mutate in a lot of different directions.

Some of those will be less deadly, and some (I'm only guessing here) may be much more deadly-- if the binding protein is better at "sticking" in a person's lungs and setting up shop, it would seem (to me, a layman) that the disease could take a much more virulent course.

That was what I was trying to say-- I'm not sure if that's how my words came out, or not.

Last but not least, the reason I posted my most recent update was that it shook me:

My prior post (on July 2), had 34,000 documented cases of H1N1 in the US (and 170 deaths).

And the follow-up (only 20 days later) had over 1,000,000 cases in the US, and over 700 deaths.

That, to me, was a shock.

Again, sorry for getting all medievil on your *ss. I was just trying to help share stuff that I thought was potentially important-- and thought you were giving me one of those "prove it!" replies.

My apologies for misunderstanding your intent, and your questions.

-Russ H.

 

[MrPink]

Haha, I checked out the post you referenced and it reminds me of how awesome fancocks2003 has become since first joining the forum (no offense, but that thread was pretty out there)... still makes me feel nauseated...

The key is it how it sticks (to use your words):
if it mutates then it may not be able to bind to same place and therefore be ineffective

lot of things to consider: for example:
some proteins bind tightly and then release quickly
others bind weakly and stay on for a long time

so not only do you have affinity, but also kinetics

-these can be a result of a conformational change

will be interesting to see how the disease progresses.

 

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[Russ H]

Latest news:

Worldwide, H1N1 kills 2837, but no more serious: WHO

GENEVA (Reuters) – The pandemic H1N1 flu virus continues to cause widespread infection in many parts of the world but is not becoming more serious, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.

The WHO said it had counted 2,837 deaths worldwide but noted that not every case was being counted any more.

The United Nations agency is closely monitoring the strain, commonly known as swine flu, but said it had not detected any mutation which might signal that it has become more deadly.

"It is not causing more severe illness than before, there have been no changes in the behavior of the virus," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told a news briefing.

"We are continuing to see increased number of deaths because we are seeing many, many more cases."

About a quarter of a million cases have been laboratory-confirmed worldwide, but this is far fewer than the true number according to the WHO which has stopped requiring its 193 member states to report individual cases.

Its previous update of August 28 showed at least 2,185 deaths, meaning an additional 652 deaths were reported in the past week.

The virus could eventually infect 2 billion people, or a third of the world's population, according to WHO estimates.

Every year, seasonal influenza kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally, it says. But H1N1 is causing a year-round flu season and may infect more people than a usual seasonal virus, potentially adding up to more deaths.

"In the best case scenario we have today, we will still have a moderate virus that is projected to cause several million deaths," Dr. Tammam Aloudat, senior health officer at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told a separate news briefing.

"Which means that even in the best case scenario, we do have an emergency on our hands, an emergency of a scale different from what we have seen before in the modern era," he said.
The Federation, the world's largest disaster relief network, on Friday launched an information campaign to help the poorest communities reduce infection through simple hygiene measures.
H1N1, declared a pandemic on June 11, causes many mild symptoms, but has killed more people with medical conditions, such as asthma, or pregnant women, who should be treated with the antiviral Tamiflu by Roche Holding AG, WHO says.

PREDOMINANT VIRUS

Tropical regions of many countries in South and Southeast Asia are reporting "increasing or sustained high levels of respiratory disease," although Thailand has reported a declining trend, according to the WHO's latest weekly update.

In Latin America, countries including Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Brazil are reporting more respiratory disease, while outbreaks seem to have peaked in Chile and Argentina, it said.
Japan is seeing an early start to its regular flu season. In Canada and the United States, influenza activity remains "low overall," despite increases in the southeastern U.S. region.

Drugmakers are racing to develop vaccines amid experts' warnings that a "second wave" of the virus is approaching as weather cools in the northern hemisphere and the traditional flu season starts.
On Thursday, Novartis AG said a single dose of its vaccine might protect against the virus, raising hopes that potentially tight supplies could go further when mass immunization starts this month.
Hartl has called the preliminary results "encouraging," noting any vaccine that can be administered in one dose would substantially increase the number of overall doses available.

*************

So far, Mr Pink has been right: H1N1 has not mutated into something more deadly.

As someone who depends on travelers to survive, this pandemic is of great interest to us.

-Russ H.

 

[PaulRobert]

My mother's friend who lived in Poland passed away in July due to swine flu. She came home from visiting her daughter in London and become terribly ill with it. We have all learned that where ever you go, cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing, carry around a bottle of Purell Gel in your pocket and if your sick, go to the doctors and stay home. Lets hope and pray that the flu will not spread like wildfire this coming Fall and Winter.

 

[Russ H]

Advice we've heard (from our daughter's pediatrician):

1. Cough into your elbow (not your hand)

2. Stay away from others who are coughing (duh)-- but seriously, this is an airborne illness

3. Wash your hands-- a LOT.

H1N1 is going around the schools 30 mi north of here right now (same county, lots of intermingling), so everyone is on the lookout.

Personally, I'd rather have it hit before the season really takes off-- since flu tends to be less severe when the weather is warmer.

-Russ H.

 

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[MrPink]

H1N1 could mutate.

I was just saying that I don't think anyone can predict it will mutate and become more deadly.

Good news though - thanks for the update.

 

[Russ H]

Not big news-- but a better description of how H1N1 is different (and the surprising demographics: It's most fatal with: 5-17 year olds, and the morbidly obese):

New flu can kill fast, researchers agree - Yahoo! News

-Russ H.

 

[JayKim]

I think its a irrational fear. rated R

5 Irrational Fears (Even Rational People Have) | Cracked.com

 

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[Rem]

1) Being overly cautious seems to be what is happening. It's like the saying goes. 'Better safe than sorry'. So if something does happen nobody can say they didn't warn us.

2) Fear is a good way to push bills through congress, hoping to institute a new law.

3) Tamiflu is a good money maker and many people are making money by investing in the drug. Pushing each year to have your shots and Tamiflu is a good way to ensure consistent growth in your investment.

Those 3 are the first that come to mind. I am sure there are others.

 

[Sparlin]

I haven't read this thread..but I seem to be knee deep in this swine flu crap so I'll tell you what I know.

I found out last week that my neighbor kids had it which was not good news to me because my son had just played with them a few days earlier. Just as you would expect, he became extremely ill and had a fever approaching 105 F for the first few days. On the third day, it broke but but would come back every night upt to 102 F. It took exactly 1 week for the feaver to go away. He is doing fine now.

My girlfriend is an Prenatal Intensive Care nurse at a local hospital and has had 2 babies die in their hospital from it. Here is Wichita, several health care workers are infected and missing work because of it. It turns out she got it got a high fever 2 days ago, her 2 kids also have it.
We had it diagnosed last night to confirm it is swine flu and the doctor perscribed pain meds and a lot of fluids. They are also passing out surgical mask at the hospital.

Despite what happened to the babies at the hospital, it seems that most people are getting over the virus in about 1 week. The worst of the symptoms manifest in the first 76 hours. The doctors said the tamiflu (sp) Theraflu is largely ineffective after 48 hours elapse.

As for me, when my son became ill last week, I began a vitamin C campaign that seems largely effective. This could be bogus info, but I've taken 3 to 4 thousand mg of vitamin C daily and have only suffered mild symptoms from the flu. I would say that the extent to which I've been affected so far is only 1/5 of what I've seen in other people. I also took some vitamin D3 (?) and zinc. It could just be me, but these steps have seemed beneficial in my case.

The physician last night stressed the importance of washing hands and using lysol as this virus is passed by droplets (coughing, sneezing). I'm not sure how relevant this info. is to the thread, but I thought I would share since I've been waging war with the Swin flu for the last week.

That is all.

 

[Russ H]

Sparlin-

Thanks for a first hand report.

I think the most startling thing is the speed-- from first symptoms to respiratory arrest (death) in less than a week, for those who succumb.

Irrational fear? As I explained earlier, for us, a pandemic w/quarantines would mean a drop in business for our B&B that would most likely wipe us out (our overhead is about $100K/mo). We did have a "rainy day" fund ($300K), but we spent it to finish the big project.

Yes, we fear it. But our fear is pretty calculated-- based on loss of business. So far, it's proceeded as best we could have hoped-- a treatment that works (and is readily available), worldwide production time of the vaccine that has been unprecedented, and distribution that looks really good so far. We've also been fortunate that it "hit" at the END of the flu season for the Northern Hemisphere (and within a month or so of "schools out for summer"-- which meant slower spread (esp among school aged kids), much less severe symptoms for everyone in the warmer climes, and faster recovery times.

So for us, it's been a "best case scenario", if you will (so far).

-Russ H.

 

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[mkzhang]

For all those suffering from this swine flu I hope you get well soon

But for us here in NJ it was mostly a joke, haven't hit us too bad. Only a few crowded county colleges got it and that was a few months ago.

 

[Russ H]

Obama declares swine flu a national emergency - Yahoo! News

As I mentioned in my personal update, there's a LOT of H1N1 going around locally. 70 kids out of one small elementary school last week, whole families coming down w/it, and the local docs are no longer testing for it-- just telling people to stay away from others, and watch their symptoms-- and call them if they get worse.

-Russ H.

 

[AroundTheWorld]

Yea, it is starting to become more "personal" around here too. Someone that has been staying with us got word a few days ago that his niece and nephew have it. Then, this morning we got word that 4 of my nieces and nephews and a sister-in-law now have it...

 

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[throttleforward]

Swine flu is the real deal as far as a pandemic flu goes. From an emergency preparedness perspective, it is a great case study in how all the planning and money spent on what to do with pandemic flu (remember Avian flu and the money spent to prepare for that) was really all for naught, what drives public policy and reaction in this situation is political and economic considerations. The comments by Biden a few months ago, while derided, were appropriate considering the WHO flu pandemic response guidelines. Conveniantly, the WHO response guidelines have not been followed due to "economic considerations".

 

[Russ H]

Swine flu is the real deal as far as a pandemic flu goes. From an emergency preparedness perspective, it is a great case study in how all the planning and money spent on what to do with pandemic flu. . . Conveniantly, the WHO response guidelines have not been followed due to "economic considerations".

Throttle forward-

So how woulde YOU solve the problem with a lack of funding?

Identifying problems is slowlane.

Finding solutions is fastlane.

-Russ H.

 

[HCBailly]

I heard that swine flu has killed maybe 1000 people in the USA, so far all year. The normal seasonal flu killed several thousand in the first few months of the year. I’d be more worried about the regular flu, but of course, that won’t help sell shots, because it’s not the “swine†flu.

 

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[Russ H]

I’d be more worried about the regular flu, but of course, that won’t help sell shots, because it’s not the “swine” flu.

Virtually all flu cases in the US right now are H1N1.

We got that info from our doctor-- but here's what the CDC says:

CDC H1N1 Flu | Situation Update

from theabove link:

Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

This many reports of widespread activity are unprecedented during seasonal flu.

Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

-Russ H.

 

[MrPink]

November 23rd 3:30 PM EST
H1N1 Briefing for Bloggers and Their Readers
Join the live Webcast to learn detailed information about influenza prevention and treatment, warning signs for parents, anti-viral medications, and vaccinations. A question and answer session will provide the opportunity to engage directly with leading communication and public health experts, including:

* Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary, HHS
* Anne Schuchat, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC

 

[Cat Man Du]

Virtually all flu cases in the US right now are H1N1.

We got that info from our doctor-- but here's what the CDC says:

CDC H1N1 Flu | Situation Update

from theabove link:



-Russ H.

Said by RussH on Nov. 5, 2009

I would question this data. As an ex-med student, one of the exercises in our statistics class was to take a study from one of the 3 largest Medical Magazines (JAMA, NEJM, or Lancet) and show that the stats were flawed. Sadly, this was easy, as many of the articles had small or even serious errors in their stats, which made the conclusions inaccurate.

Boy, talk about “ chickens coming home to ROOST”
Sorry Russ - I couldn’t resist.

The ones that have the flu now ..................Did they get the shot? If so - didn’t do them any good.

If they didn’t get the shot and are recovering ...... They didn’t need it!

We were sold a bill of goods by “ BIG PHARMA “ so that they could reach their hands into our pockets and extract 1 billion of our tax money - BY SCARING US !!

DUPED again by the BIG BOYS! :shruggie:

 

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[stp]

Here in Scotland there have been about 50 deaths due to swine flu but that is less than general flu and the swine flu deaths had underlying problems so all in all I dont think it have become the big killer that the media portrayed (theres a shock).

 

[Russ H]

Latest CDC data (FYI only, no comments implied or intended):

CDC H1N1 Flu | In The News - People living with HIV infection and 2009 H1N1

-Russ H.

 

[Russ H]

Latest CDC data (FYI only, no comments implied or intended):

CDC H1N1 Flu | In The News - People living with HIV infection and 2009 H1N1

-Russ H.

 

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[Cat Man Du]

Latest CDC data (FYI only, no comments implied or intended):

CDC H1N1 Flu | In The News - People living with HIV infection and 2009 H1N1

-Russ H.

:heartbeat:............................. and make up!:smxF: