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OFF-TOPIC Swine Flu ... What's Your Take?

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MJ DeMarco

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StreetsofSilver

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There was a news brief about the swine flu on ABC News the other night. They said that in 1976 (when the last outbreak occured) there were more people who died from the vaccine to prevent it than the actual swine flu itself.
 

Russ H

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Could be very, very serious.

A Pandemic could kill millions of people.

-Russ H>
 

365

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Dunno. Will have a couple of flights the next week, one of them intercontinental. Let's see what is going to happen the next couple of days.
 

dkt91

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I'm not scared to death but I am concerned. Let's hope they find an inoculation or medication soon...
 

ITA

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It may be different this time of course but I was in Asia a couple of years ago when SRAS was front-page news for weeks and the next Armageddon according to the mainstream media; and I never worried one bit about it - it always was 20, then 100, then 2000 people infected but in the grand scheme of things I kept reminding myself it was really small, even though watching TV you would have thought everyone was dying. In the end authorities took the appropriate steps and it just died. My guess is that's what gonna happen with the flu here too.

Never forget the news media has 24 hours a day to fill. They will jump on whatever they can and talk about it as much as possible just so they can keep ratings up, and quite simply have something to talk about. It's the TV version of the corporate employee spending hours "polishing" a report to "look busy".

If you are in a physical-type business though, say a bar or a gym or any store really, it could get ugly if it goes on for weeks and is blown out of proportions. Even though there was less chance to get infected than to get hit by a car, there *was* a big psychosis going on here at the time - bars and restaurants and hotels were empty, business travel was badly affected, foreign employees were flown home, etc etc. Certainly not what the US needs right now.
 

Runum

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I beleive the major concern is the incubation period. Due to the delayed effects you don't know how big the problem is and how widespread it can be. By the time you see it's serious it's BIG serious. Some people will just be carriers and never get sick. Keep your hands washed and keep them away from your face.
 

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Bobo

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Jill is in Cabo this week, I was gonna let her come home Thursday but with this whole pig-flu thing I guess I just need to cut her loose... bummer

Hey - anyone wanna help me write the new ad for the online personals?
 

Russ H

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Yeah, tell that to a guy who runs a hotel-- and has his entire cashflow model built on recurring revenue from tourism (ie, people staying at the hotel).

If we get cancelations and people stop coming, we're in for a world of hurt.

We're not dwelling on this, though-- can't change what you cant change. Working on what we CAN do. :)

-Russ H.
 

Edge

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Yeah, tell that to a guy who runs a hotel-- and has his entire cashflow model built on recurring revenue from tourism (ie, people staying at the hotel).

If we get cancelations and people stop coming, we're in for a world of hurt.

We're not dwelling on this, though-- can't change what you cant change. Working on what we CAN do. :)

-Russ H.
Russ - If you're hurting, Marriott or other publicly traded tourism based industries are probably hurting also. Have you thought about hedging yourself by shorting some of those industries?
 

Russ H

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Edge-

We're very focused on our "One Trick Pony", which-- for better or worse-- is developing lodging properties.

So while the economy is down, we're adding on rooms like crazy.

Smart?

Perhaps not. But if travel/tourism improves, we'll cash in big time.

Short term? Bad thing to do.

Long term? Could be excellent.

Also, this has been an integral part of our PLAN for the past 4 years-- all of our activities are focused behind building rooms.

So we're kind of stuck w/it, until the markets improve.

Doesn't make sense to sell our Inns during these times, or to do something else-- since we need to finish what we've committed to in order to maximize our potential return.

I totally get what you're saying-- knowing what we do, we could short the airline and hospitality stocks.

But we're not doing stocks--we're doing brick and mortar RE development.

And in that area, we're taking advantage of the downturn to get our projects done faster (contractors have less jobs, so we can get them focused on ours), and cheaper (contractors have less jobs, so they're hungry to pay bills/get work).

As a paper investor, you have the ability to hop quickly between markets.

But for us, w/our investments in brick and mortar, "hopping" (selling RE) takes months/years-- and we're bound and determined to sell at peak, if we can do this.

Hoping this all makes sense. :)

-Russ H.
 

AroundTheWorld

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Russ - If you're hurting, Marriott or other publicly traded tourism based industries are probably hurting also. Have you thought about hedging yourself by shorting some of those industries?
Edge,

Your brilliance never ceases to amaze me. I love learning from you and still wish that I could grasp 1/2 of what you say.

If there are lessons from the last year (and certainly there must be) one is to learn how to manage your wealth. If you sleep at the wheel, you will certainly kiss some of your wealth goodbye.

More and more, I appreciate the "hedging" strategy.
 

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ITA

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Yeah, I had an "ahah" reading the hedging idea, too. It's so simple but it wouldn't have occurred to me. Edge, if you could elaborate on hedging here or in a new thread I would love to hear it.
 

phlgirl

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Your brilliance never ceases to amaze me. I love learning from you and still wish that I could grasp 1/2 of what you say.
Amen, sister!

It seems so simple, once Edge has written it..... but I just never seem to view things in this way. I'm not sure what you do for a living, Edge, but maybe you should start an advisory Hedging Business - where you help wealthy individuals secure their status!

I think, sometimes, people get so focused on their one trick pony, they forget to put safeguards in place....or they just don't know enough to bother.

Great stuff. Thanks.

Side note: ATW - my brother is currently driving through your neck of the woods - on his journey from Florida to Alaska! He sent me a few different pcitures of buffalo, bighorn sheep, etc..... from his phone. Breathtaking.
 

AroundTheWorld

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I think, sometimes, people get so focused on their one trick pony, they forget to put safeguards in place....or they just don't know enough to bother.
I agree... and it leads to a really interesting topic. I would love to see more discussion on how to find the balance here.

Overall, I agree with the one trick pony. It is important to find your "leverage points" and focus on those. It will be the fastest way to wealth.

On the other hand... times change, environments change, economies change.
So too, must our strategies!

The other day,someone told me that when the automobile first came out, there were outcries from horse whip manufacturers. They wanted to ban the automobile because it was going to put them out of busness! (I have not verified this story). The idea, however, is valid. If a business or individual gets so focused in on the one pony, they may soon find that they are broke, and obsolete.

Hedging can be one way to help deal with this problem.

How do we find the balance between a "focus" and "adaptability"?
 

JScott

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Not saying it's necessarily relevant to this conversation (i.e., I'm not making any statistical analogies), but here's a statistic that adds a bit of context to our fears...

IN THE UNITED STATES, AN AVERAGE OF 36,000 PEOPLE PER YEAR DIE FROM THE FLU.
 

kurtyordy

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Not saying it's necessarily relevant to this conversation (i.e., I'm not making any statistical analogies), but here's a statistic that adds a bit of context to our fears...

IN THE UNITED STATES, AN AVERAGE OF 36,000 PEOPLE PER YEAR DIE FROM THE FLU.

How dare you counter the media driven hysteria with facts. That is just so out of line.
 

kurtyordy

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It just takes one spark to start a forest fire, one punch to start a fight, and one pig kisser to start a pandemic.


 
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JScott

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It just takes one spark to start a forest fire, one punch to start a fight, and one pig kisser to start a pandemic.
Remember, when you kiss a little boy, you're also kissing every pig that little boy has ever kissed...



EDIT: After re-reading, hopefully that comment isn't taken the wrong way...get your minds out of the gutter! :)
 

kwerner

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Kurt that was the funniest damn thing I've seen / read in quite a while - I literally spit out my drink of soda when I scrolled down and seen that picture. Rep++ :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 

hatterasguy

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The media is bored because the wars are old news and not going so bad, Obama hasn't done anything major story worthy recently, and the economy is showing some signs of life.

So the media needs more bad news to fill up their 24/7 feeds. Its a media overblown event, about a little bug thats going around.
 

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