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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

MJ DeMarco

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MJ DeMarco

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Getting ugly out there, Dow under 30,000 again.
 

socaldude

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10-year yield has a lot of room to go up. My guess is Nasdaq can easily drop another 14% assuming a 7% drawdown for every 100 basis point rise.

Today's down day is really not surprising considering thursday's weak response to the Fed meeting.

VIX futures term structure not looking good, we're gonna see a VOL explosion. :rofl:

Fear is a powerful emotion in these markets even more so than greed. I would never want to see someone get hurt in these markets, but I think it's healthy to have some taste of reality. Imagine being that guy whose married with two kids who mortgaged the house and went all in on tech stocks and crypto and being down 6 figures on Robinhood. This is why I hate wall street. We have a toxic and corrupt central bank as well as a misinformed mainstream financial media. Why did the Fed keep rates low for so long even when unemployment was low?

Why doesn't marketwatch run an article on the losses those FIRE people have? I know it hurts and is embarassing. Nobody likes showing off losses. You ain't gonna be smiling for that camera.

People are supposed to bet their future on this crappy and corrupt system? Wow, excuse me while I overdose on laughing gas.
 

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If the Feds are really going to raise rates enough to prevent hyperinflation, I actually have to give them some sort of grudging credit... and it must mean they know things are BAD.
 
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socaldude

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If the Feds are really going to raise rates enough to prevent hyperinflation, I actually have to give them some sort of grudging credit... and it must mean they know things are BAD.

Then what happens if inflation stays elevated; which it will. Together with a recession. The Fed won’t have a lot of options to maneuver that situation. What are they gonna do? Lower rates?

They keep saying “soft landing”. These are the same people that said the “target” rate of inflation was 2%.
 

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We should see a big move here to the downside! Although they will probably try to rally them to make it look like SP will double bottom.

Just looking at stuff like correlations and recent price-action together with my gut. Could be wrong of course!
 

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BoE Announces Gilt Market Operations

The Bank of England announced it will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 September until 14 October to restore orderly market conditions.
They couldn't even stop for a full year. Of course the keyword is, as always, "temporary"... Wondering how long before the ECB announces the same. Not sure even the US economy can sustain current rates.
 

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32D000A5-3F05-43C8-9250-657C45BAD523.jpeg$VIX still in a wierd spot above both its 20 DMA and 200 DMA with the 20DMA pointing upwards.

/VIX futures term structure not yet signaling a
Mean Reversion. :oops:

There’s been a lot of selling in the AM immediately after market open.
 
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If you guys are worried about the 'current' market conditions you are not grasping investing, or being in the markets for the 'long term'. Everything else is just gambling and speculation. What is happening now is not only totally NORMAL but EXPECTED!

Here is some more QUICKLY pulled up statistics: Declines of 10%-20% have happened 29 times (about once every 2.5 years since 1946), 20%-40% nine times (about once every 8.5 years) and 40% or more three times (every 25 years) ( reference).

Where do you think the long term market gains come from, and the 'risk' that is involved in achieving that!? Well we are there!

Enjoy the ride and don't pay too much attention to all the noise in the headlines. And most important STAY THE COURSE!!
 
G

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If you guys are worried about the 'current' market conditions you are not grasping investing, or being in the markets for the 'long term'. Everything else is just gambling and speculation. What is happening now is not only totally NORMAL but EXPECTED!

Here is some more QUICKLY pulled up statistics: Declines of 10%-20% have happened 29 times (about once every 2.5 years since 1946), 20%-40% nine times (about once every 8.5 years) and 40% or more three times (every 25 years) ( reference).

Where do you think the long term market gains come from, and the 'risk' that is involved in achieving that!? Well we are there!

Enjoy the ride and don't pay too much attention to all the noise in the headlines. And most important STAY THE COURSE!!
This, but I’d also say start looking for bargains.
 

fastlane_dad

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fastlanedoll

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wait for VIX to drop back down to teens; a good idea to buy some long call options on ETFs / stocks you believe in I reckon.
 
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Andreas Thiel

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If you guys are worried about the 'current' market conditions you are not grasping investing, or being in the markets for the 'long term'. Everything else is just gambling and speculation. What is happening now is not only totally NORMAL but EXPECTED!

Here is some more QUICKLY pulled up statistics: Declines of 10%-20% have happened 29 times (about once every 2.5 years since 1946), 20%-40% nine times (about once every 8.5 years) and 40% or more three times (every 25 years) ( reference).

Where do you think the long term market gains come from, and the 'risk' that is involved in achieving that!? Well we are there!

Enjoy the ride and don't pay too much attention to all the noise in the headlines. And most important STAY THE COURSE!!
I don't think many people here worry about what the declines will do to their savings and investments.

When people talk about how bad it will get
1. we probably secretly hope that this means the chance to secure bargains will be even bigger
2. we also consider how hard people who don't think about investing (sidewalk? slowlane?) will be hit

I personally do worry about what will happen to the system. Currently people think that the indices will always rise in the long term ... and I am not so sure.
The current elite does everything to make sure that not 7 Earths of materials are used up ... they want to get to One Planet Living. For many industries (airlines for personal flight) they see no future. They try to transition out of growth incentives and pretty much end capitalism as we know it.
Germany is well on its way to economic irrelevance. The whole supply chains will have to rearrange.
The USA struggles to keep its role as the stewart (and bully) of the rest of the world. The argument about things getting better depends on the USA winning actual or economic wars, which would probably be a 50 year+ endeavour, so I think the established claims that you will be fine with a 30 year investment horizon might not apply this time.

So I think there are more than enough points to worry about, even if it is not the core of investing itself, which I agree will not change in any of these environments. What kind of hill will a decent investor be king of ... that it the real concern right now, in my mind.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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I personally do worry about what will happen to the system. Currently people think that the indices will always rise in the long term ... and I am not so sure.

I'm with you. People too easily like to base future performance and past history. They see the markets returning to "normal" as a set of forgone conclusions.

A new set of never before scenarios are here, and we have no idea how the system will react, and if it can. In other words, just because history says the S&P500 will return to normal (what's normal? 4000? 4200?) doesn't mean in will. I forsee many years of dour returns, if any ... throwing the entire "investing" world on its head. My rationale is because the system behind the system and the politicians and oligarchies that run it, are severely corrupt. Morally bankrupt individuals and entities, will bankrupt the system, to the enrichment of themselves. Strap yourself in.
 
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AceVentures

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In my estimation people are too pessimistic about future returns. Innovation is always overlooked. Gains in efficiency can be parabolic. Paradigm changes in technology yield outsized returns.

A lot of emerging tech is converging. I think most people will underestimate what comes in the next 10-20 years.
 

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just curious, what you guys are selling premium on at the moment?

I switch between SPY and UPRO
 
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socaldude

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I personally do worry about what will happen to the system.

My guess is there is a very high chance of a black swan event in the next 10-20 years. And it will probably be in the credit markets. We are in a very different economic, political and investing regime. The rules, laws and regulations of the system are just sentences on a piece of paper and a set of instructions all enforced through lies and fear. Most governments these days are not even legitimate governments anymore.
 

Kevin88660

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I exited some long dollar trade woth profit previously. Even though I still see more upside for the dollar I think its getting crowded and dollar might retrace against other currency soon.

Im starting to accumulate FXI a Chinese large cap etf for a bottom reversal trade. China still have tools and zero covid is a self inflicted policy which they can choose to lift. Whereas in Europe, Europeans cant make the choice to get away from a war zone and energy shortage issue.

China has capital control. Which means they can do interest rate lowering to support asset prices without big currency depreciation.

-Not Financial Advice
 
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I really don’t see “September” being the cause of our problems. Weakness in the business world goes deeper than a month on a calendar. I expect this rally to reverse.
 

MJ DeMarco

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I expect this rally to reverse.
Screen Shot 2022-10-03 at 11.39.26 AM.png

Still a few hours left in trading today, but as of now, this rally is on very low volume, haven't even reached half-volume yet, which tends to mean you are right.
 

socaldude

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Still a few hours left in trading today, but as of now, this rally is on very low volume, haven't even reached half-volume yet, which tends to mean you are right.

You can tell today was wierd. QQQ was up only 4 points midday. We should have been up more with VOL this high. Usually the last 2 hours of trading can give us some clues.

I really don’t see “September” being the cause of our problems. Weakness in the business world goes deeper than a month on a calendar. I expect this rally to reverse.

My guess is nobody is touching these indexes until after the midterm election. Even then, who knows, but this is classic bear market price-action. They can't get a good rally going and the drawdowns are vicious and unexptected.

We are kinda oversold and riding that lower bollinger band but the market can stay oversold for a while. LOL
 
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View attachment 45370

Still a few hours left in trading today, but as of now, this rally is on very low volume, haven't even reached half-volume yet, which tends to mean you are right.
If you like to follow trends/historical data etc., usually Sept 30 marks a temporary bottom for a relief rally until midterms.
 

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socaldude

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/ES up 100 points and VIX only down 1.81 points...:eyes:
 

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/ES up 100 points and VIX only down 1.81 points...:eyes:
I noticed the same today, you talked about a similar pattern two weeks ago or so. Decided as a consequence to take profit on all the short strangles I had on. Better not to leave money on the table now.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Once again a big rally and the VIX has barely budged. It's like the market is smiling and goading you back in while wearing a big sign on its chest that says, "I'm lying."
 

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"Remember, when there’s nothing clever to do, the mistake lies in trying to be clever."
(Howard Marks, Mastering the Market Cycle)
 

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