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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

Kak

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I bought some VIXY, SQQQ and DRV today.

I’m honestly convinced that DRV might be a decent core position for a little while.:clench:
 
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Once again a big rally and the VIX has barely budged. It's like the market is smiling and goading you back in while wearing a big sign on its chest that says, "I'm lying."
Vix has been weird all year.. seems very manipulated to be honest.
 

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When do you guys think this whole thing will bottom?
 

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When do you guys think this whole thing will bottom?
When the old men at the Fed decide so, as the recession narrative becomes stronger than the inflation narrative and political pressure is too strong.
 
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When do you guys think this whole thing will bottom?

The market looks out about a year in time. They are trying to gain some certainty about inflation and interest rates. Interest rates matter because they affect valuations. It’s harder to value a stock when interest rates start moving. There’s a lot more going on here but that’s one key aspect.

My opinion is that the Fed made big preventable mistakes. I’m not gonna say what they are but wages will lead the next wave of inflationary pressures. Inflation is a vicious economic demon that has ratchet effect consequences.
 

Andreas Thiel

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I have been writing about what a market observer has been saying about the spread between bonds (mostly US treasuries) and equity ... namely that equity must get cheaper to avoid extreme tension as yields for bonds rise.

Just watched another video and something that was new to me was that the US treasuries market might soon run into issues similar to the ones that forced the BoE to start buying up bonds again.

When there are no buyers, then the market for long running bonds is in danger of collapsing altogether. As I understand it, we might enter a situation where the US must buy bonds ... which most market participants will probably interpret as a clear sign of a strategy reversal. But then they might keep raising rates at the same time and sell shorter-dated issues (it seems this has been done before and was refered to as "Operation Twist").

The market observer assumes that there will be a very narrow window to buy cheap assets after the FED actually reverses and does everything to stabilize the economy (once China has been hit hard enough). But the US buying longer-term treasuries alone might not be the signal to go all in. They should also stop raising rates and ideally lower them.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Once again a big rally and the VIX has barely budged. It's like the market is smiling and goading you back in while wearing a big sign on its chest that says, "I'm lying."

Looks like it was indeed a lie. And the VIX told you the whole story. There is power in learning how to read market data.
 
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Kak

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When the old men at the Fed decide so, as the recession narrative becomes stronger than the inflation narrative and political pressure is too strong.
Yep. It’s manufactured. 100%

If good news for the economy is bad news for the markets, you have to ask yourself why.

It’s because it’s communism with lipstick. There’s central control and ownership of EVERYTHING via the federal reserve. It just feels like we own stuff. The problem is everything we buy, sell, hold and own is priced in something owned by the central force.
 

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How do you predict different markets react if a peace agreement is negotiated? I'm not seeing a lot of hot takes on this scenario but it's an interesting one to consider.
 

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When do you guys think this whole thing will bottom?
It will take a long time to bottom in my opinion.

1) Inflation has to get to 2 percent
2) Russian Ukraine war stops
3) China stops zero covid policy
4) Omicron and who knows what stops interrupting supply chain.

Not a single one of them is about the happen soon.

On the other hand the market is excellent for short term swing trading. When you think the crash has more to go we have a big relief rally. When you think things are getting better Fed warns about fighting inflation as the top priority..
 
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MJ DeMarco

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It will take a long time to bottom in my opinion.

Agreed. The last market retreat (pre-Covid fear) was swift (a few weeks, see chart) because it was based on fear and overreaction.

This move down is slow and precipitous... has the all the signs of a long, extended downturn.

This is a weekly chart.

Weekly charts are hard to break and tend to last for at least a year.

1665164284168.png
 

fastlanedoll

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It will take a long time to bottom in my opinion.

1) Inflation has to get to 2 percent
2) Russian Ukraine war stops
3) China stops zero covid policy
4) Omicron and who knows what stops interrupting supply chain.

Not a single one of them is about the happen soon.

On the other hand the market is excellent for short term swing trading. When you think the crash has more to go we have a big relief rally. When you think things are getting better Fed warns about fighting inflation as the top priority..
what indicators do you use for buy / sell?
 
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Kevin88660

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what indicators do you use for buy / sell?
It is not about picking top and bottom but rather figuring on what the market state is.

2020 Feb-March was a sharp V shape capitulation and recovery. Timing the bottom, if successful, will be highly profitable.

Its likely that we are in a choppy market that is grinding downwards. This is will take time to bottom out. And we aren’t going back to fast QE mode to pump after the bottom.

Therefore I am not concerned particularly when and where the bottom will be. It is not that relevant.

It is really the swings in the market that is profitable. We are moving downwards in a way that is three steps downward and two steps upward. Everytime when Fed warns about inflation and hence results in a dump its probably a good time to buy. Every-time when the market thinks the worst is over and presumes Fed will ease, its probably a good time to sell.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets.
Stanley Druckenmiller
 

YanC

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Volatility has been picking up nicely these days, making selling premium attractive. With the Nasdaq making new lows and the S&P seemingly headed towards it though, not sure this is the right time...
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Market was higher mostly all day and again, the VIX wouldn't go lower (it actually was slightly up). As expected, it sold off in the final hour, revealing once again, that the VIX rarely lies.
 

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Market was higher mostly all day and again, the VIX wouldn't go lower (it actually was slightly up). As expected, it sold off in the final hour, revealing once again, that the VIX rarely lies.

Looking at the VIX futures term structure, we are now even MORE inverted than we were at this level previously. The market rallied 200 points and it stayed inverted. The cash VIX is trading at a premium to its front month /VX contract, even while approaching expiration in a few days. No mean reversion just yet. :jawdrop:

B43D35F0-7E9C-4297-B9DA-52D7B6F1551A.jpeg
 

NeoDialectic

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I'm with you. People too easily like to base future performance and past history. They see the markets returning to "normal" as a set of forgone conclusions.

A new set of never before scenarios are here, and we have no idea how the system will react, and if it can. In other words, just because history says the S&P500 will return to normal (what's normal? 4000? 4200?) doesn't mean in will. I forsee many years of dour returns, if any ... throwing the entire "investing" world on its head. My rationale is because the system behind the system and the politicians and oligarchies that run it, are severely corrupt. Morally bankrupt individuals and entities, will bankrupt the system, to the enrichment of themselves. Strap yourself in.
I've seen you post mocking the idea that indexes will fair well over the long term and how using history to assume this isn't smart. Can you expand on your point of view? More specifically I would press on the following:
  • If you believe the market will crash/stagnate from now on or for a very long term... This implies that the USA economy as a whole is no longer growing and is starting to shrink. Of course this is possible, but this begs the next question. What possible investments don't have this exposure and if the market tanks forever what investment could possibly be safe. We aren't just talking about this in a vacuum. The context is if not X then Y. Considering what portion of the USA's wealth is tied up in markets, it would ripple across nearly all investable markets. The stock market is just a collection of most of the most successful businesses afte rall. The housing market has been on fire because of cheap money and insane market growth (which is from insane business growth). Do you think houses will keep going up in price when the market halves and stays there?
  • If you believe there will just be sour returns for many years.....Does it really matter for the long term investor? I'm in the market for the next 50 years. Decade long ruts have happened before and its no big deals as the roaring decades follow to make up for it. Maybe I'm just incorrectly assuming you are also investing for long term growth and/or passive income?
Obviously building your own business is always the best option. But if you are talking about investing in assets outside of your direct control for passive long term income.... I just don't know how the market isn't always among the best options. No matter what is happening in the market at the time.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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I've seen you post mocking the idea that indexes will fair well over the long term and how using history to assume this isn't smart. Can you expand on your point of view? More specifically I would press on the following:
  • If you believe the market will crash/stagnate from now on or for a very long term... This implies that the USA economy as a whole is no longer growing and is starting to shrink. Of course this is possible, but this begs the next question. What possible investments don't have this exposure and if the market tanks forever what investment could possibly be safe. We aren't just talking about this in a vacuum. The context is if not X then Y. Considering what portion of the USA's wealth is tied up in markets, it would ripple across nearly all investable markets. The stock market is just a collection of most of the most successful businesses afte rall. The housing market has been on fire because of cheap money and insane market growth (which is from insane business growth). Do you think houses will keep going up in price when the market halves and stays there?
  • If you believe there will just be sour returns for many years.....Does it really matter for the long term investor? I'm in the market for the next 50 years. Decade long ruts have happened before and its no big deals as the roaring decades follow to make up for it. Maybe I'm just incorrectly assuming you are also investing for long term growth and/or passive income?
Obviously building your own business is always the best option. But if you are talking about investing in assets outside of your direct control for passive long term income.... I just don't know how the market isn't always among the best options. No matter what is happening in the market at the time.

The United States is a country in decline, and I'm not just referring to that economically. I'd expand on that truth but don't want to say something that might come back to haunt me. I don't want to be cancelled.

As far as I'm concerned, only two things buttress the American economy (and its stock market) and that is our reserve currency status, and that the stock market hosts 1000s of multi-national corporations with global footprints.

So yes, never before in human history has the world been so interconnected which is kinda my point. So when it collapses, there will be no safe investment haven. Your post alludes that I might know what investment that is, I do not. I do not have an answer to what the best "long term" investment will be other than my own business, and my own home.

Furthermore, world powers do not want a vibrant middle-class that can climb the economic ladder. World powers want a peasant class, and a ruling class (you'll own nothing and be happy).

Ray Dalio's The Changing World Order, book will do a much better job at explaining why I think we're in for a period of time never before experienced. So yes, "buy the dip now because it always comes back" is entirely an opinion, not fact, and based on historical premises where the USA was a superpower on the rise, or interested in solidifying its worldly presence as one.

That is no longer true.

 

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The United States is a country in decline, and I'm not just referring to that economically. I'd expand on that truth but don't want to say something that might come back to haunt me. I don't want to be cancelled.

As far as I'm concerned, only two things buttress the American economy (and its stock market) and that is our reserve currency status, and that the stock market hosts 1000s of multi-national corporations with global footprints.

So yes, never before in human history has the world been so interconnected which is kinda my point. So when it collapses, there will be no safe investment haven. Your post alludes that I might know what investment that is, I do not. I do not have an answer to what the best "long term" investment will be other than my own business, and my own home.

Furthermore, world powers do not want a vibrant middle-class that can climb the economic ladder. World powers want a peasant class, and a ruling class (you'll own nothing and be happy).

Ray Dalio's The Changing World Order, book will do a much better job at explaining why I think we're in for a period of time never before experienced. So yes, "buy the dip now because it always comes back" is entirely an opinion, not fact, and based on historical premises where the USA was a superpower on the rise, or interested in solidifying its worldly presence as one.

That is no longer true.


Got it. Now I think I understand your position. I don't necessarily disagree that alot of things aren't looking good. I guess I am just betting that my money will do better betting on the economy than betting on inflation not eating it up.

As I mentioned, I sympathize with alot of your thoughts on the USA's direction on an emotional level, including the taboo ones you hint at. However I'm not sure if economically anyone else is set up to do any better than us. Have you read the book:

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization - Peter Zeihan

It makes a pretty good case for why things will be going down the toilet, but that the USA will actually come out the least bad. Reserve currency or not, it's hard to run away from our natural resources, military, and demographic (compared to the other powers) advantages that we have. If you have read it, let me know what you think.
 

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A lot of us see the writing on the wall.

It's not that we are doomsdayers, conspiracy theorists or pessimists. It's that the system has proven itself to be corrupt and untrustworthy more than any other time in history. Sure, the market and the american economy did well over 100 year period despite embargos, recessions, wars, inflation, conflicts and other scary things. Warren Buffett would point and laugh at me for "betting against america".

But today, its different.

I'm no expert or economics genius but I do believe I have a special talent for economics. People like @Kak do as well. You can see it driving through any major US city and seeing the shitty empty manufacturing buildings or the stealing at your local CVS not to mention a long list of other red flags.

You no longer tell the system what to do. It tells you what to do and even what to consume. Vote them out you say? Excuse me while I overdose on laughing gas. LOL

The farther away it is from the system the more of a "safe" investment it is. As an investor, I look at risk.

I'm sorry to say it, but America will see a catastrophic economic collapse in our time. And the people responsible for it will laugh and not even apologize.
 
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Kak

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A lot of us see the writing on the wall.

It's not that we are doomsdayers, conspiracy theorists or pessimists. It's that the system has proven itself to be corrupt and untrustworthy more than any other time in history. Sure, the market and the american economy did well over 100 year period despite embargos, recessions, wars, inflation, conflicts and other scary things. Warren Buffett would point and laugh at me for "betting against america".

But today, its different.

I'm no expert or economics genius but I do believe I have a special talent for economics. People like @Kak do as well. You can see it driving through any major US city and seeing the shitty empty manufacturing buildings or the stealing at your local CVS not to mention a long list of other red flags.

You no longer tell the system what to do. It tells you what to do and even what to consume. Vote them out you say? Excuse me while I overdose on laughing gas. LOL

The farther away it is from the system the more of a "safe" investment it is. As an investor, I look at risk.

I'm sorry to say it, but America will see a catastrophic economic collapse in our time. And the people responsible for it will laugh and not even apologize.
Yep. Optimism or ignorance is not a plan.

Things are going to change. “Unprecedented” will keep happening.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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While I agree with all of the gloom and doom, I also think it's important to consider what is and is not in your control...

Things look very bad for the world and for America (I know the whole forum is not American - you don't need to remind me).

But I also know there are only so many actions within my control... and all you can really do when the world is going to hell in a handbasket is 1. Panic 2. Do Nothing or 3. Be Proactive

I would choose 3, be proactive. If you invest when there is "blood in the streets," you will either lose your investment (hey, the world is ending - who cares!) or you will do phenomenally.

What are the most dangerous words EVER in investing? "This time is different."

(But seriously - if the global economy is collapsing, what do you have to lose?)
 

MJ DeMarco

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Watch closely the market's action Thursday and Friday, I believe we will make another huge leg down. Or, it will bounce back strongly. There will be big movement... question is, which direction?

Reserve currency or not, it's hard to run away from our natural resources, military, and demographic

Natural resources we refuse to use? A military that keeps shrinking and focuses more on cultural BS than actual military preparedness? Demographics? You mean a massive group of people who don't want to work, or want to get paid $500/hour for pulling weeds and pouring coffee? You mean 66% of the population who is obese and/or addicted to something, can't focus for longer than 5.2 seconds, and will have massive needs for medical care?

At the moment, everything you mentioned was a historical advantage. It no longer is today.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Watch closely the market's action Thursday and Friday, I believe we will make another huge leg down. Or, it will bounce back strongly. There will be big movement... question is, which direction?



Natural resources we refuse to use? A military that keeps shrinking and focuses more on cultural BS than actual military preparedness? Demographics? You mean a massive group of people who don't want to work, or want to get paid $500/hour for pulling weeds and pouring coffee? You mean 66% of the population who is obese and/or addicted to something, can't focus for longer than 5.2 seconds, and will have massive needs for medical care?

At the moment, everything you mentioned was a historical advantage. It no longer is today.
I agree completely with every single negative thing you mentioned, but I also think Americans have a way of rising from the ashes. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Not on the people in power, no, they suck entirely. But on the people who will replace them.
 

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I agree completely with every single negative thing you mentioned, but I also think Americans have a way of rising from the ashes. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Not on the people in power, no, they suck entirely. But on the people who will replace them.
We can only hope. Would suck to make it to the top 1% of income earners and then have everything go to shit/mass chaos
 

MJ DeMarco

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Just so we're clear, never before have I wanted to be WRONG about some predictive opinion.

But on the people who will replace them.

And how does that happen? Voting? :rofl:

Republicans aren't the solution, they're part of the problem. It's just easier to blame Democrats right now.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Just so we're clear, never before have I wanted to be WRONG about some predictive opinion.



And how does that happen? Voting? :rofl:

Republicans aren't the solution, they're part of the problem. It's just easier to blame Democrats right now.
Perhaps things get so bad that people react and shift to the opposite course of action? They start taking ownership and responsibility, they throw out woke nonsense, they focus on needs over temporary comforts, etc... I don't know... I guess we'll see how it plays out (while still taking action ourselves)
 

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Perhaps things get so bad that people react and shift to the opposite course of action? They start taking ownership and responsibility, they throw out woke nonsense, they focus on needs over temporary comforts, etc... I don't know... I guess we'll see how it plays out (while still taking action ourselves)
That is basically what Putin says will happen, when he says that the gap between Western elites and their citizens will lead to more and more countries completely replacing their "ruling" elites.

Have thought about that scenario, and even if that happens and the USA comes out of this as a winner - long term, what would the path to new highs look like? When you look at how many cars / phones / PCs were sold each day ... we have been flying pretty high (and kinda still are).
And I'd argue that they had to use extreme monetary policy to keep the slow lane narrative going about how the markets will always reach new highs. Historically the economy always ran out of steam and some catastrophy (mostly wars I suppose) was needed as an economic stimulus.

When you play the thought correctly you might even start to consider rooting for the WEF, because then sustainability really becomes a huge issue, unless interplanetary planning and wildlife preservation efforts are involved in the grassroots solutions.

...

Republicans aren't the solution, they're part of the problem. It's just easier to blame Democrats right now.
That surprises me. I'd assume that Republican taking the wheel would get rid of most of the socialist dynamics and most likely lead to very different outcomes.
 

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