Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[YanC]

Watch closely the market's action Thursday and Friday, I believe we will make another huge leg down. Or, it will bounce back strongly. There will be big movement... question is, which direction?

Seems like direction is gonna be down. S&P instantly down almost 2% on the CPI announcement (came out above consensus) after being up 1% previously. Nasdaq down almost 3%. Cryptos down significantly. /VX up almost 2 points.

US Inflation Rate Rises More Than Expected

 

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[Goodfella999]

I recently finished the book "Creature from Jekyll Island" and if everything or even half of what that book claims about the FED and all our wars is true, as well as our money supply, were all screwed.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

That surprises me. I'd assume that Republican taking the wheel would get rid of most of the socialist dynamics and most likely lead to very different outcomes.

Democrats are honest to their socialist and authoritative tendencies and act accordingly. Republicans like to decry socialist tendencies and preach "freedom!" but still govern like democrats. In other words, one party likes to be bold in its economic destruction, another likes to be duplicitous about it. If Republicans were the solution, they would have been able to navigate the Trump presidency for the better. Instead they blew it, as expected. Both are appendages unto the same corrupt machine.

 

[EmotionEngine]

Did anyone expect it not to? It's going to take Jesus Christ to get it under control.

September Inflation Report: Prices Rise Faster Than Expected (Published 2022)

The Consumer Price Index rose 8.2 percent in the year through September, another stubbornly high result driven by more costly food, rent and other items.

www.nytimes.com

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Did anyone expect it not to? It's going to take Jesus Christ to get it under control.

Out of touch Fed: "It's transitory."

I called out that BS 24 months ago.

 

[Kak]

LOL at the terrible news rally.

They have raised interest rates like 3% this year and the inflation rate basically hasn't budged... If they are still targeting 2% it doesn't even look mathematically feasible.

The market: "Dow up 800! Wheeeew."

 

[EmotionEngine]

The market: "Dow up 800! Wheeeew."

Very interesting, but I think it may be short-lived and a different story when markets close.

 

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[Kak]

Did anyone expect it not to? It's going to take Jesus Christ to get it under control.

September Inflation Report: Prices Rise Faster Than Expected (Published 2022)

The Consumer Price Index rose 8.2 percent in the year through September, another stubbornly high result driven by more costly food, rent and other items.

www.nytimes.com

View attachment 45493

Don’t you love the +6.6% excluding food and energy?

For those of you who don’t eat or consume energy inflation is only 6.6%! Lol WTF?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Very interesting, but I think it may be short-lived and a different story when markets close.

I think this rebound is more about market clarity than anything. It is no longer a mystery to what the rate hike will be, it will be 75 bps. The markets like certainty, even if that certainty isn't positive.

The VIX is barely down again.

 

[EmotionEngine]

I think this rebound is more about market clarity than anything. It is no longer a mystery to what the rate hike will be, it will be 75 bps. The markets like certainty, even if that certainty isn't positive.

The VIX is barely down again.

Yep, you are right. I'm definitely looking at it from an elementary angle.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks stage big turnaround after plunging on inflation data; Dow soars 800 points, S&P 500 gains near 3%

U.S. stocks recovered Thursday after inflation data showed that consumer prices climbed more quickly than expected.

finance.yahoo.com

 

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[NeoDialectic]

Watch closely the market's action Thursday and Friday, I believe we will make another huge leg down. Or, it will bounce back strongly. There will be big movement... question is, which direction?



Natural resources we refuse to use? A military that keeps shrinking and focuses more on cultural BS than actual military preparedness? Demographics? You mean a massive group of people who don't want to work, or want to get paid $500/hour for pulling weeds and pouring coffee? You mean 66% of the population who is obese and/or addicted to something, can't focus for longer than 5.2 seconds, and will have massive needs for medical care?

At the moment, everything you mentioned was a historical advantage. It no longer is today.

I understand your points but I am a bit more optimistic. The arch of the pendulum may be long, but it's a swinging and I think tides are starting to turn. I feel it in the air and have felt the slow change in sentiment for the last year or so. I can never be sure, but let's hope that I am right!

(By demographics I am referring to just sheer number of upcoming working age people. We are in a bad place, but A LOT better than all the other current powers. A big portion of the book I mentioned goes into this exact detail)

 

[YanC]

Seems like direction is gonna be down. S&P instantly down almost 2% on the CPI announcement (came out above consensus) after being up 1% previously. Nasdaq down almost 3%. Cryptos down significantly. /VX up almost 2 points.

US Inflation Rate Rises More Than Expected

Funny how the markets are good at making one look like an idiot...

(By demographics I am referring to just sheer number of upcoming working age people. We are in a bad place, but A LOT better than all the other current powers. A big portion of the book I mentioned goes into this exact detail)

This is kind of my thinking as well. Economically speaking, who do you bet on if not the US, the EU ? LOL don't even get me started on this unelected mafia ran shitshow. China ? Maybe, I used to own chinese bonds which performed very well but sold them as I couldn't bring myself to be betting on the CCP.

Obviously, the US being less bad than the others doesn't mean it's getting better though. Maybe smaller places that seem to function very well such as Switzerland or Singapore ? I don't know.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Economically speaking, who do you bet on if not the US, the EU ? LOL don't even get me started on this unelected mafia ran shitshow. China ?

Yes, China.

China can play the long-game, the US and the EU cannot. For instance, when Trump became President and started strong-arming China, all China had to do was wait 4 or 8 years, and play the long game. Elections do not allow democratic powers to stand ground on any one policy as internal power struggles move in flux.

China doesn't have elections, they have plans that stay firm and don't change with elections. So they can play long-games, while the rest of the world is playing short. Do you think China is OK with poor economic growth for 10 years if they emerge as the dominant superpower? Hell yes. Long game. China plays CHESS, the rest of the world is playing CHECKERS.

 

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[NeoDialectic]

Yes, China.

China can play the long-game, the US and the EU cannot. For instance, when Trump became President and started strong-arming China, all China had to do was wait 4 or 8 years, and play the long game. Elections do not allow democratic powers to stand ground on any one policy as internal power struggles move in flux.

China doesn't have elections, they have plans that stay firm and don't change with elections. So they can play long-games, while the rest of the world is playing short. Do you think China is OK with poor economic growth for 10 years if they emerge as the dominant superpower? Hell yes. Long game. China plays CHESS, the rest of the world is playing CHECKERS.

I will be the first to admit that I'm no expert on the matter, so I could be the one that is wrong. But if I am right, I think you may have been misled by whatever media you are consuming. It is a common idea that China is building up to be a powerhouse, but it isn't supported by the facts. The fact's seem to show that they are peaking in their power and panicking to hold onto whatever they can before a strong decline.

First thing to look into is their demographics. They absolutely screwed themselves with their past 1 child limit. Seriously. Their population is getting older and they are on the brink of disaster when it comes to having enough people to replace the current working population to support the upcoming wave of retiring elderly.

I can't expand on the demographics idea enough in posts on a forum, but Peter Zeihan 's book does a fantastic job. I know it sounds like not your cup of tea if you're dead set on China overtaking things, but give hearing the other side of the argument a chance with an open mind. He goes into alot more than just demographic's.

The other thing I disagree with is the way you're characterizing China's govt advantages. There are advantages and disadvantages to planned economies and authoritarianism. You pointed out an advantage. I am actually 100% in agreement with your view on their major advantage in this regard. But you left out all the disadvantages (that you do espouse in other posts when talking about socialism/communism). It is easier for them to do long term planning and get shit done. But they also have no checks on whether what they are getting done is right (1 child policy being prime example). Democracy like in the USA is extremely slow moving and inefficient. But that's by design. It's a mirror of a market solution. It stumbles it's way to the finishing line and truth. Eventually. We have obviously socialized some parts of our economy and it's not exactly market. But it's much closer to it than China, et al.

Just my 2c I suppose.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

you may have been misled by whatever media you are consuming.

I don't consume media, I don't read any media outlets (unless it assaults me here or in some newsletter) as much as you won't find me shooting up heroine daily. I consider myself more of a studious student of history and human behavior.

That said, you make valid points and I hope you are right, and I am wrong. I welcome it.

 

[loop101]

Steven Van Metre resells some kind of bear-market trading system, and pitches it as the end of his "doomporn" videos. He believes in his cause, and was recently nonplussed about being put in the "doom" category. When you make a video titled "You're Going to Get Wiped Out!" later followed by "It's Worse Than We Thought..", people are going to see this as both "doom" and comedy. His deadpan deliveries remind me of late 80s SNL skits. If he embraced the humor element, he might create something viral. Ironically, if he monetized his content, he wouldn't need to resell trading systems.

Occasionally something in the entertainment world perfectly mirrors what is going on in society, and becomes hugely popular. The show Survivor, where people formed alliances and voted each other off the island, perfectly matched the 2001 tech layoffs and Machiavellian behavior of people trying to keep their jobs. I remember people coming in to work and asking "Who got voted off the island?" after another layoff.

A broken clock is right twice a day, but that doesn't mean it isn't right for that moment. I expect someone like Van Metre to break out. The Jim Carrey Show was pitched to TV producers as "the Anti-Seinfield show", and someone will eventually pitch "the Anti-Cramer show".

His headlines are amazing click-bait, though he sometimes runs out of euphemisms (example below).

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

For the last 6 months I've heard, we could be in a recession in 6 - 9 months...

Reminds me when we heard, "this inflation is transitory" for a year.

The key thing is to deny something that is real and already here.

In short, at the point they admit we're in a recession is the point you should probably start buying stocks again.

 

[Matt Sun]

I think this is big news and not geting atention: Yesterday US destroyed China's semi conductor industry in 24 hs... zeroed, kaput.

TLDR: New rule forces US Citizens to quit their job in China or renounce citizenship. Mass exodus of key workers taking place. Whole industry in halt and can't by any means recover.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580889341265469440

View: https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kePQMjr0IDQ

 

[loop101]

Interesting article:

"But we are in the process of moving to a system where a large part of the allocation of resources is not left to markets anymore. Mind you, I’m not talking about a command economy or about Marxism, but about an economy where the government plays a significant role in the allocation of capital"

"What will this new world mean for investors? First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment"

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

General thoughts on $FB, Facebook? Undervalued? The market seems to hate it, but how low can it go before it's in value territory?

 

[EmotionEngine]

General thoughts on $FB, Facebook? Undervalued? The market seems to hate it, but how low can it go before it's in value territory?

Meta appears to be going in the wrong direction with heavy emphasis on Web3 which most people don't even want (mainly because it doesn't appear to solve a problem.) The tech sector is bleeding jobs and it may get worse. I work in tech at a well-funded company and even my company is talking about "restructuring" for the first time. I may hastened on fastlane plans if I get laid off, a possible blessing in disguise. (I'm currently saving to boostrap my future biz.) Hopefully this is at least a grain of useful information.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/microsoft-fires-about-1000-employees-as-global-slowdown-bites-meta-twitter-snap-other-tech-firms/2718369/

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Meta appears to be going in the wrong direction with heavy emphasis on Web3 which most people don't even want (mainly because it doesn't appear to solve a problem.) The tech sector is bleeding jobs and it may get worse. I work in tech at a well-funded company and even my company is talking about "restructuring" for the first time. I may hastened on fastlane plans if I get laid off, a possible blessing in disguise. (I'm currently saving to boostrap my future biz.) Hopefully this is at least a grain of useful information.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/microsoft-fires-about-1000-employees-as-global-slowdown-bites-meta-twitter-snap-other-tech-firms/2718369/

The company's fundamentals are strong. The stock may be oversold relative to the financials. Everything you've described is true, but it's qualitative and doesn't represent the (very strong) financial reality of the company IMO... Just my thoughts on why it may be a great buying opp. All subjective and speculative!

Low debt levels, high equity, high return on equity, strong earnings, very low valuation for the industry... Reasons for the decline? Goofy "New Coke" type of branding issue.

 

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[NeoDialectic]

Meta appears to be going in the wrong direction with heavy emphasis on Web3 which most people don't even want (mainly because it doesn't appear to solve a problem.) The tech sector is bleeding jobs and it may get worse. I work in tech at a well-funded company and even my company is talking about "restructuring" for the first time. I may hastened on fastlane plans if I get laid off, a possible blessing in disguise. (I'm currently saving to boostrap my future biz.) Hopefully this is at least a grain of useful information.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/microsoft-fires-about-1000-employees-as-global-slowdown-bites-meta-twitter-snap-other-tech-firms/2718369/

After watching Zuckerberg on Rogans podcast, I actually became much more intrigued by FB. It is always possible that he is making a bad gamble. BUT, if he is right, he will be considered a visionary and everyone else will be playing catch up.

I am of course talking about very long term and not gambling on what the next quarter returns are going to show.

 

[msufan]

I hear the previous talk about black swan events and agree that they are likely... but I think we also have to consider the potential for amazing technological breakthroughs that massively enhance productivity in the coming years. It's very feasible that we see massive renewable energy breakthroughs, quantum supercomputing, the end of certain cancers, malaria being eradicated, previously third-world countries gaining internet access and having vastly more opportunities in one generation, and so on. Our natural pessimism should be tempered by hope as well.

 

[socaldude]

but I think we also have to consider the potential for amazing technological breakthroughs that massively enhance productivity in the coming years

I don’t think the technology is a concern it’s more about the rules we have to play by created by a government and “who” gets to “own” the resources.

Here’s a real life example: one of my friends wants to start his own business. I’m trying to help him and proposed a pretty good idea, business model and concept that I thought was brilliant and would work. It was a brick and mortar business. We had to find a good location that would be feasible. So far we have run into nothing but headwinds and roadblocks. And the headwinds are all created by the stupid system. No commercial real estate broker calls us back. The regulations, compliance and zoning in this stupid state of CA is ridiculous. “No you can’t do that here or there”, “that’s not allowed”. WTF? Why not? This business could of easily employed 2 employees full-time right away. I can’t see it working. The cost and rules kill the business model.

 

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[socaldude]

On another note, I haven’t seen the futures session pump these indexes up in a long time. Interestingly, a lot of the gains on these indexes during their bull runs happened overnight in the futures session(I know because I watched them lol).

But anyways, I think this is fake and not the start of a nasty bear market rally.

 

[msufan]

I don’t think the technology is a concern it’s more about the rules we have to play by created by a government and “who” gets to “own” the resources.

Here’s a real life example: one of my friends wants to start his own business. I’m trying to help him and proposed a pretty good idea, business model and concept that I thought was brilliant and would work. It was a brick and mortar business. We had to find a good location that would be feasible. So far we have run into nothing but headwinds and roadblocks. And the headwinds are all created by the stupid system. No commercial real estate broker calls us back. The regulations, compliance and zoning in this stupid state of CA is ridiculous. “No you can’t do that here or there”, “that’s not allowed”. WTF? Why not? This business could of easily employed 2 employees full-time right away. I can’t see it working. The cost and rules kill the business model.

totally agree on this

 

[socaldude]

totally agree on this

I also think we have misunderstood different economic systems and have loosely defined them. And have failed to make distinctions of principles. For example, how do you define capitalism? What about socialism? What is utility under socialism or capitalism? Is the federal reserve system “capitalism”?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

10-year Treasury yield tops 4.2% for first time since 2008

Treasury yields were higher on Thursday, trading at the highest levels in more than a decade.

www.cnbc.com

Any financial metric that meets a 2008 metric is not a good sign.

Remember, when they finally admit we're in a recession is probably the right time to step in and buy.

They also said inflation was transitory for 30 months.

 

[YanC]

Government bonds are the safest investment they said... -50%, back to 2011 levels, which were actually already reached in... 2003 (not even accounting for the fact that the dollar hugely inflated since then).