More Information = Better Choices Myth

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"Using experts in a variety of fields as test subjects, experimental psychologists
have examined the relationship between the amount of information
available to the experts, the accuracy of judgments they make
based on this information, and the experts’ confidence in the accuracy of
these judgments.

The word “information,” as used in this context, refers
to the totality of material an analyst has available to work with in making
a judgment.

Key findings from this research are:

•Once an experienced analyst has the minimum information necessary
to make an informed judgment, obtaining additional information
generally does not improve the accuracy of his or her
estimates. Additional information does, however, lead the analyst
to become more confident in the judgment, to the point of overconfidence.

•Experienced analysts have an imperfect understanding of what
information they actually use in making judgments. They are
unaware of the extent to which their judgments are determined
by a few dominant factors, rather than by the systematic integration
of all available information. Analysts actually use much less
of the available information than they think they do.

As will be noted below, these experimental findings should not necessarily
be accepted at face value. For example, circumstances exist in
which additional information does contribute to more accurate analysis.

However, there also are circumstances in which additional information—particularly
contradictory information—decreases rather than increases an analyst’s confidence."

Source


TL;DR

Once you have a general understanding of something, more general information
isn't going to help the accuracy of your actions - however it can make you more
confident when proceeding to take action

For instance reading 10 general business books will usually have the accuracy
of reading 100 general business books but the 2nd option will give you more
confidence that you know what you're doing (unless it contradicts the other books)

What will help you make smarter choices is obtaining more specific information
about your specific problem

For instance, reading a book on sales will help you more than a general business
book to produce more sales...reading a book on how to sell to people in your niche
will help you more than a general book on sales..etc.

Thoughts?

 

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