Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

[Lyinx]

another story from in the field:

So, some/a lot of contractors get an estimate signed and (to lock in the prices that they quoted) get the materials ordered at the prices that they are at today. This means the Window mfg needs to make these windows now and sit on them (because the prices might be going up tomorrow on the panels)
This leads to a huge warehouse of windows just sitting there, to put into a house, in 8 months from now.
And another warehouse with lumber stacked up, waiting 8 months till they build it.
And another warehouse with X items in it - and so on and so forth....
Smell the problem yet?

Due to the demand to lock in prices, they can't make enough to fulfill current demands (the guy off the street, the repair guys, etc...) which drives up the prices even further...

My thoughts - I could (and hope I am) be wrong: At some point there is going to be a "correction" in the market prices and it will be cheaper to give up the downpayment that companies got for the materials, and get a new company to do the actual building (with the lumber that's priced lower, obviously) than to use the sitting lumber at the old prices.

yikes... Just thought I'd share what I'm hearing.

 

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[JunkBoxJoey_JBJ]

Had to replace an interior door... did not want a hollow core, wanted solid wood. Would have been $300 or more AND wait 3-6 weeks! Went to Mom & Pop lumber yard, said "Would you let me look through your bullpen" (left over doors, screwed up orders, etc.) ...rummaged through several and found a solid wood one that measured right for $50 ...cash and carry.

Lesson 1: NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE BULLPEN DURING INFLATION!
Lesson 2: Never forget Lesson 1 ...and solid wood doors are heavy

 

[Kak]

Not hyperinflation, but related... Hyperinflation goes hand in hand with shortages.

We ordered a nice rocker from Pottery Barn for the baby’s room in OCTOBER. It finally showed up here today, a month after he was born.

That’s 7 months for delivery.

 

[Kak]

Looking to Buy a Used Car? Expect High Prices, Few Options

A monthslong rise in used-car sales has left bargain-hunters with limited options on lots across the U.S. as some dealers say they don’t expect that trend to end soon.

www.wsj.com

 

[Kak]

Friend of mine owns several restaurants… Has plenty of customers, is stressed out that he doesn’t have enough employees.

The restaurants are in small towns and the pools of people that would work there are likewise small. They, not surprisingly, prefer to stay home and eat government cheese.

When you subsidize something, you get more of it. This country has, for a long time, subsidized poverty.

 

[LordGanon]

Germany:

Toilet Paper: 20-50%
Canned food at discounter: 25%
Rent: 25-33% on new contracts
Real Estate: Don't get me started

But the absolute winner is...cabbage: 2000%

Media is all like "Whoever thinks there's going to be hyperinflation will lose his bet, deflation will make its return!"

Nyeah. You continue to bullshit yourselves.

All money I make I currently throw into crypto. This will go belly up, I'm fairly certain.

 

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[Train]

Looking to Buy a Used Car? Expect High Prices, Few Options

A monthslong rise in used-car sales has left bargain-hunters with limited options on lots across the U.S. as some dealers say they don’t expect that trend to end soon.

www.wsj.com

It's ridiculous for sure, my car lease actually has $7k positive equity . Got it in the lull during strict lockdowns before supply was strained.

 

[Kak]

It's ridiculous for sure, my car lease actually has $7k positive equity . Got it in the lull during strict lockdowns before supply was strained.

To replace my Mercedes S550 that got totaled last year, right now, I’d have to pay $10k more than I paid for that same car in 2019.

Things are nuts. I normally don’t borrow money, but I’m thinking about picking up a $80k King Ranch F250 on a 0% for 84 month payment plan and just pay it back with the funny money.

That truck, used, will be worth a couple hundred grand in a few years.

It might be the last chance to get something nice anyway before all hell breaks loose.

We should all be looking at ways to go into more debt. That sounds so ridiculous, but think about it.

 

[Lyinx]

Not hyperinflation, but related... Hyperinflation goes hand in hand with shortages.

We ordered a nice rocker from Pottery Barn for the baby’s room in OCTOBER. It finally showed up here today, a month after he was born.

That’s 7 months for delivery.

I thought it's usually 9 months for delivery - at 7 months is a bit premie.

I'll see myself out...

 

[Timmy C]

 

[GuestUser4aMPs1]

Really good podcast on some things that may actually benefit from an inflationary environment.
Kinda high level discussion but great analysis...

Anchor - The easiest way to make a podcast

Create, distribute, host, and monetize your podcast, 100% free.

anchor.fm

 

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[socaldude]

Stagflation=high inflation+high unemployment.

That’s where we are headed. Central banks messed up because there was no precedent or case study.

Dollar’s reserve currency status is weakening as literally no one is investing in the US. US debt will be downgraded and the stock market will go to 2000. Bond yields will rocket. LOL

 

[Train]

Stagflation=high inflation+high unemployment.

That’s where we are headed. Central banks messed up because there was no precedent or case study.

Dollar’s reserve currency status is weakening as literally no one is investing in the US. US debt will be downgraded and the stock market will go to 2000. Bond yields will rocket. LOL

I did see Michael Burry (Big Short guy) was doing bond plays in his latest company holdings.

Puts on TLT and calls on TBT, TTT, and 3x levered TMV.

Not sure if he already exited this positions or not though.

But something that was of note to me regarding bonds.

 

[lludwig]

Stagflation=high inflation+high unemployment.

That’s where we are headed. Central banks messed up because there was no precedent or case study.

Dollar’s reserve currency status is weakening as literally no one is investing in the US. US debt will be downgraded and the stock market will go to 2000. Bond yields will rocket. LOL

I've said this is the most probable outcome.

 

[Sethamus]

Here is an argument for against hyper inflation Ark invest- deflation belief

If you look at the beginning of the deflation curve (increased savings>over investment &excess demand>excess debt and capacity) it is very similar to what we are seeing as well.

 

[daivey]

I've gone 180 on my inflation belief.

The Fed was right. It's transitory.

 

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[peddletothemetal]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CJyFKoTxEs

 

[Sethamus]

I've gone 180 on my inflation belief.

The Fed was right. It's transitory.

Like I heard last night, the fed will always be right. If it last 6 more months- transitory. If it last 3 years- it was transitory.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Great article from 2008 about 1970s style inflation: Back To The 1970s

another one: What worked (and didn’t work) during 1970s stagflation | Sovereign Man

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Like I heard last night, the fed will always be right. If it last 6 more months- transitory. If it last 3 years- it was transitory.

Bingo! You win the Internet Winner of the Day award.

 

[socaldude]

Mary Daly at the San Fran Fed on CNBC said “transitory isn’t about timing, it’s about what’s driving the increases in inflation. No sign that long term prices are rising in a way that’s continuous.”

And housing prices are supported by a strong economy.

And yet at the same time the Fed says it had to intervene in the repo market and 0% rates because of a weak economy. But the economy is strong.

You can’t make this sh*t up.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Mary Daly at the San Fran Fed on CNBC said “transitory isn’t about timing, it’s about what’s driving the increases in inflation. No sign that long term prices are rising in a way that’s continuous.”

And housing prices are supported by a strong economy.

And yet at the same time the Fed says it had to intervene in the repo market and 0% rates because of a weak economy. But the economy is strong.

You can’t make this sh*t up.

Everything about the economy is struggling right now except for graphs of the stock market.

That’s their game... “if the graph is pretty, everything’s good! Woohoo! Partayyyy!”

 

[peddletothemetal]

Bernie Sanders: Hard Pass on Giving Jeff Bezos Billions for Space Travel

No, Jeff Bezos should not just get billions of dollars from NASA because he thinks he deserves it, Bernie Sanders says. After Blue Origin made a stink

gizmodo.com

They seem very committed to continuing to spend like a drunken sailor. Pretty hilarious when Bernie has to pipe up and remind his crew that they're not supposed to be quite so overt with handing money to billionaire elites.

Currently looking into precious metal miner stocks on top of the metals themselves.

 

[Timmy C]

Had a chat to a real estate agency owner at the gym today.

They don't even have lumber to make houses.

 

[lowtek]

Not exactly inflation, but certainly a measure of how broken things are.

In January 2019 I purchased 2 RTX 2080 Ti video cards direct from NVIDIA. $1200 a pop.

Last week I sold one of them, after using it for almost 2 and a half years, for $2,019.

The reasons behind this are varied, but the root cause is government. Overreactions to the virus such as shut downs and money printing lead to a shortage of semiconductor chips and a boom in crypto mining.

 

[P789]

Currently, we have the highest inflation rate in the entire Philippines, sitting around nine percent (9%) in overall prices in the market and we currently have food crisis on meat as prices skyrocketed from P200 to P400, a one-hundred percent increase. Aside from the Pandemic, we have ASF (African Swine Fever) where it can infect pigs thus, killing them.

Additionally, the fare prices of the public transport here (Jeepney), increased slightly by P3.00, reaching up to P10.00 when traveling within at first four kilometers.

• Edit: Added a news article.
• Edit2: Fixed the sentence.

Rice is cheap, but vegetables, meat pricey in recession-hit Philippines

Rice may be cheap now, but Filipinos are finding it hard to find food items to pair it with as costs rise during the pandemic

www.rappler.com

DA proposes price freeze, more imports as pork soars to P450/kilo

The Department of Agriculture wants to set a price ceiling on pork and chicken through an executive order by President Rodrigo Duterte, as the agency's own administrative order failed to tame prices

www.rappler.com

 

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[Antifragile]

2018 Porsche 911 Carrera 4S Coupe PDK **Deal Pending** - cars &...

One owner, no accidents or claims. Heavy spec! Fully serviced and maintained at Porsche Centre Langley. Winter tires included - currently in storage through Porsche Centre Langley. Vehicle will be...

vancouver.craigslist.org

Luxury car values are up. This car is 20% higher price than 12 months ago. It is not a collectible or rare in any way. A regular 911 that just went up in price.

ouch.

 

[Lyinx]

wife works for a donut shop - they sell to tourists

they had a recent $.05 increase, and now just did another $.05 per donut increase, her boss told her that oil went from $40 to $60 a bucket (50% increase) amid other increases, so they need to pass it on.

she said the locals will complain, but tourists buy them anyway

 

[GSF]

Building materials price bump increases inflation jitters

Earlier this month fears about inflation sparked a global sell-off in stock markets around the world.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

"Construction heavyweight Travis Perkins (TPK.L) told customers this week to brace for a 15% rise in the price of bagged cement, a 5% bump in the price of paint and a 10% increase in the price of chipboard."

"The expected acceleration in prices this year will likely be temporary, Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey said in testimony to MPs Monday."

 

[Timmy C]

Building materials price bump increases inflation jitters

Earlier this month fears about inflation sparked a global sell-off in stock markets around the world.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

Reading headlines like that is why the media isn't worth listening too.

I haven't read the article yet, but fears of inflation cause a sell off?

Inflation is good for assets... This is how clueless these people are lol.