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EXECUTION Creating a fastlane gambling business

Gambler

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Dec 11, 2018
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I'm 24 from outside the US. I will be working as a data scientist starting in Jan 2018.

I've spent the past 6 months building a betting system for soccer matches. My data science & Machine Learning (ML) background exposed me to the opportunity of possibly creating a software system that can produce positive ROI & become a productocracy.

The business opportunities:
Version 1 -
Find investors to invest $$$ for a fixed time period, with a promised capital return on investments.
Use ML to predict the outcome of soccer matches.
Bet using the system I've developed.
Pay back investors, pay taxes, keep the left over profits.

Version 2 -
Use ML to predict the outcome of soccer matches.
Sell match predictions to punters who bet on soccer matches using a saas model.
Customers to be found on soccer betting Facebook groups. (I currently run one with over 25000 members).

The details:
The betting system consists of a few moving pieces that I've developed to automate the betting process.

The system can scrape details about upcoming games.

Update the database of past matches used to train the ML algorithms.

Predict outcomes of upcoming games.

Create N random betting tickets based on the expected outcomes.

Automatically log onto & bet on the betting website, if given account credentials.

Check how predictions performed (calculate ROI) after the matches.

Doing all this for 10 soccer games, creating 1000 randomised betting tickets would take around 30 minutes. Which is pretty neat considering how complex each of the steps can get.

2. The CENTS
Control - I own & control the betting system (pro).
I do not own the betting websites & stand the risk of being shutdown by them should they feel that I'm doing something illegal (con)

Entry - Lol, building something like this takes skill, time & brains, so that's a pro.
Plus, the potential market is big enough for multiple players.

Need - gambling is a multi billion dollar industry (pro). People are willing to pay for something that has a small chance of making them big bucks.

Time - In its current form, the system is fully automated. It just needs the user to point it to the right games to play, give it credentials & tell it how many tickets to purchase. (Pro)
Offering it as a service would require a lot more work though, however by it's nature it is highly automatable.

Scale - Even though the odds of making a fortune quickly are still rather small for the end user, it could be easily scaled to produce good returns for the owner.

My current limitations:
1. Fear.
I've only been testing it will small betting amounts of my own money. This has limited me from fully pushing it to its limits & getting a true representation of how good of a return a determined player could make

Plan to deal with this: implement back testing using historic matches & betting payouts so that can test true ROI in a 'safe' environment.

2. Internet access.
Believe it or not, I only have sporadic internet access where I am. I've mostly been using my university's internet after classes for all the coding required.
Plan to deal with this: Will be buying a mobile wifi setup this Christmas so that I have constant internet at home.

3. Me me me mindset.
I've spent most of my time dreaming about how this system could make me rich.
Need to start really thinking about providing ample value to the world.

Why this niche:
;) It's funny how I don't even like watching soccer games. We had to build a light weight soccer predictor for the Soccer World cup in June 2018, while it was being held in Russia.
A friend told me about this betting platform for soccer matches, I checked it out & saw an opportunity.

So I might not be passionate about soccer, but I do love working with computers & taming what seems impossible.
I also do not look forward to serving life imprisonment in a cubicle.

Why I created this thread:
1. To hold my self accountable as well as track my own progress as I continue to work on this potential fastlane vehicle.

2. As a show of gratitude to MJ, who's taken the time to share his lessons with the world.

All feedback, questions & suggestions will be appreciated.
 

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Thomas Baptiste

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Welcome to the forum. There are many resources here that will surely help you on your fastlane journey as they have been helping me.

2. Internet access.
Believe it or not, I only have sporadic internet access where I am. I've mostly been using my university's internet after classes for all the coding required.
Plan to deal with this: Will be buying a mobile wifi setup this Christmas so that I have constant internet at home.

3. Me me me mindset.
I've spent most of my time dreaming about how this system could make me rich.
Need to start really thinking about providing ample value to the world.

Why this niche:
;) It's funny how I don't even like watching soccer games. We had to build a light weight soccer predictor for the Soccer World cup in June 2018, while it was being held in Russia.
A friend told me about this betting platform for soccer matches, I checked it out & saw an opportunity.

So I might not be passionate about soccer, but I do love working with computers & taming what seems impossible.
I also do not look forward to serving life imprisonment in a cubicle.
This resonated with me so well. I'm currently working under similar circumstances and it's tough. I like that you have a clear vision and skill. Stay determined and update us on your progress.
 

Veloce Grey

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If you're honesty trying to build a system that can sustain a long term edge over the most highly informed soccer betting markets then you're trying something so difficult that I'd suggest the likely rewards from selling your services aren't worth the effort. Please don't underestimate how difficult that would be as a one man band. The skills required to do it would find richer rewards elsewhere.

Tipping services are actually more about marketing than results. Most aren't profitable based on backing the selections but they make money for a while by selling the dream and by the time the punter is realising the tips aren't profitable the company is onto a dazzling new product with the same dream worded differently.

The reality is if anyone produces such a system that is profitable they are in most cases much better off keeping it to themselves or a few select investors rather than selling it to the market. Once it gets sold if it does happen to produce a consistent edge that rapidly gets taken up by the new money backing the selections, and it's a fair bet someone buying them will be either ballsy or crazy enough they'll be betting amounts that make that edge disappear rapidly.

So that suggests option 1 over option 2. The thing is if you don't have betting experience are you really sure you want to go down the road of taking the battering that can come with the ups and downs given you'll be getting pressure from the people whose money you're winning or losing? People will love you when you make them $$$, and turn on you when it loses. The vast majority of people will lose their nerve very quickly in that situation.

Of course it's possible you could find a specific little niche your betting system may work for but by taking it down to that level it means the process of your buyers eliminating the edge only speeds up. Or with option 1 the potential returns are lower and harder to maintain due to getting less money on and finding fewer places to bet.

There's also the issue that most of the biggest betting companies happily exclude winning accounts because they aren't particularly fond of people winning money off them. So any of your customers who mine gold too well using your info find their mining permits getting revoked at which point they don't have much incentive to stay your customers.
 
OP
OP
Gambler

Gambler

New Contributor
Dec 11, 2018
4
4
17
24
world wide web
There's also the issue that most of the biggest betting companies happily exclude winning accounts because they aren't particularly fond of people winning money off them. So any of your customers who mine gold too well using your info find their mining permits getting revoked at which point they don't have much incentive to stay your customers.
Thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response.
A lot of what you say is true.
I think I'm also still in the customer discovery stage (Lean startup speak) & figuring out how I could provide value.

In line with that, I have started using the Facebook group I have access to, to start asking my potential customers questions. I first want to understand how they normally place bets.
I've realised that my coding abilities are a strength that could benefit others somehow.

Will keep updating the thread & look forward to more feedback from you.
 

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