Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Kevin88660]

I think that "super-cycle" talk sounds great. We don't have to sell, we can keep making gains forever... It feels great to belive it. But yeah, I think not. You need great volatility to make great gains. It will go down super hard IMO. With BTC dominance under 47% it shouldn't bee too far.

I'm just not sure about Eth's price since this "multiple halvings like" event will happen in just 3 months.

I think the super cycle argument deserves its merits. Super cycle doesn’t mean that we will never have a bear market. It means instead of the parabolic rise and crash in the past, we will have multi-year bull market that is slower and more gentle, interrupted by months where the price failed to reach all time high and correcting 30-40 percent from all time high.

If you look at U.S equity we had a 40 years super cycle, interrupted by V shape crash and recovery in 1987, 2001, 2008 and 2020, and other years of choppy market moving back and fourth without breaking ATH. That is really what a supercycle is like, except that cryptocurrency is likely to be more volatile.

Timing the top will become more costly than hold, when 80 percent correction from the ATH and not moving up for 3 years become a thing of the past.

The market is a lot more rationale. There is no shitcoin in the top of the list. And people who say insist that there are, are just blinded by their own ideology that only “a category of coin” is legit.

 

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[GPM]

How do you see your mining venture take place after “a crash” and staking comes out? Do you have a plan for continuing it? Just curious.

To say that I am EXCITED for a crash is an understatement.

If I do this right and have some cash that I can invest back into coins and back into mining equipment I should be able to increase my mining operations massively.

Ethereum will take a 40% profitability hit with mining in July once EIP1559 happens, and then it will go away once PoS happens. However, there are a crap ton of other projects that can be mined with graphics cards, lots are supposedly ASIC resistant as well which is a plus. I honestly don't care what I mine, so long as it is profitable.

I think that the quality and scope of projects that will benefit once all this computing power shifts away from Ethereum will be be great. There is lots of life left in mining with GPU's. Ethereum is just the current top dog.

Back to equipment and the crash. Crypto can take like a 70% nosedive from where we are at now and still be profitable to mine. It won't be crazy lucrative like it is now, but it will pay for itself. All these guys who are overpaying for stuff right now are probably going to lose their minds, and hardware costs will drop substantially on the second hand market.

Here are some rough costs on equipment Prior to the 2018 crash, after the crash, and where it is now. I expect similar pricing trends after the next crash. Prices in CAD, and rough ballparks.

B250 mining motherboard - $250 - $100 - $700
Any crappy 6-7 card motherboard - $150 - $30 - $200
Nvidia 1070 - $400 - $100 - $400
Nvidia 1080ti - $800 - $400 - $800
Nvidia 2070 Super - $unknown I didn't buy any - $400 - $800
AMD RX580 - $350 - $100 - $400

So based on what I see, used old cards are going for as much now, 3+ years old, as they were when they were new. After the crash I am expecting to see 20 series and 30 series second hand Nvidia cards going for significantly under MSRP, and same goes for everything else associated with equipment. I am planning on getting equipment for maybe 30-40% of what it costs now after the crash.

Hope this makes sense.

 

[AceVentures]

To say that I am EXCITED for a crash is an understatement.

The exponentiating size of networks leads to less volatility. Not saying swings are not possible, but for the exact same reason that you're waiting for a dip, many others are on the sidelines waiting for the same opportunity. They've been waiting for an opportunity since the orange coin broke it's previous ATH. The market has matured, participants have matured, and hedging instruments have matured.

Look at @Xeon who's been resisting instead of making money during the most glorious bullrun ever - think he'll outsmart all the current market participants when all of this "crypto scam" goes down 80%?

EIP1559 is in July. So assuming a crash were to take place, it would be between now and July 14. So a little over 2 months. Because once EIP1559 is live, the supply of ETH will literally change. Not market sentiment, but algorithmically burning ETH. I doubt many will mass-sell ETH once fee-burns are hacking at the supply and DeFi staking alternatives take further supply from circulation.

Where in the crash scenario is that considered? Or does the 70-80% correction happen post EIP1559? While the momentum and hype around the merge is building? Or does it happen after the merge? Because if it only goes down AFTER these events occur, then the price it stabilizes at, say a drop from $40,000 down to $10,000, although possible, will still cost you a 4x premium vs an entrance today. What will the fundamentals of the crypto economy be when that happens? It might not have the same structure of sell pressure when that happens.

Timing matters - If you take the above into account, how do these fundamentals line up with the crash scenarios?

 

[GPM]

Tx fees will be burnt on Eth, so less generated. The supply will still increase, just not as at great a rate.

People like Xeon are not going to get in on this when it crashes, the same as they did not get in before. They will see it crash on the sidelines and say "see I told you so, its a bad investment"

And yes, the crash will be in relation to the peak. So maybe it will go to 100k, and then drop to 10k. That means that today's prices look cheap in comparison. No one knows. what will happen.

Look at the post-crash numbers for 2018 and Eth. It was hovering around $10-12 before the run up, and then crashed and hovered around $100-130 after the crash. So maybe after the next crash it comes down and hovers around $1000-1300?? No one knows. Now excuse me while I go sniff some more of my crushed crypto crystal balls and see what the future holds...

 

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[GPM]

Eth mining block rewards are 2 Eth right now, plus a portion of the Tx fee. So each block generally rewards like 2.8-3.5ish Ethereum right now.

After EIP1559 these won't be paid out to miners, or maybe just a small portion will. In either case some of that extra Tx fee will just be burnt. So the 2 Eth for the reward still gets paid out, and thus Ethereum is still expanding. the extra 0.8-1.5 or whatever "tx bonus" might be burnt off instead, so that extra portion of Eth won't be created.

Oh, and transaction fees probably will not go down after EIP1559, they will just become more predictable and should be more stable.

Then again I might be 100% wrong, so don't believe anything that I say.

 

[Antifragile]

@AceVentures
Great posts, well thought out positions. Always appreciate reading what you write, brother.
Wider adoption = smaller swings, not the opposite.

 

[AceVentures]

Eth mining block rewards are 2 Eth right now, plus a portion of the Tx fee. So each block generally rewards like 2.8-3.5ish Ethereum right now.

After EIP1559 these won't be paid out to miners, or maybe just a small portion will. In either case some of that extra Tx fee will just be burnt. So the 2 Eth for the reward still gets paid out, and thus Ethereum is still expanding. the extra 0.8-1.5 or whatever "tx bonus" might be burnt off instead, so that extra portion of Eth won't be created.

Oh, and transaction fees probably will not go down after EIP1559, they will just become more predictable and should be more stable.

Then again I might be 100% wrong, so don't believe anything that I say.

This is one of Justin Drake's latest supply models(ETH foundation and ETH2 developer). Models are just that, not a crystal ball, but it's always worthwhile attempt to consider a range of probable outcomes.

The below evaluates bookend metrics, recognizing the answer will be somewhere in the middle. If the economics make sense even in the P90 outcome, that's a bet worth taking.



Compare PoW issuance to PoS issuance vs daily fee burn. EIP1559 reduces issuance by about half and EIP1559+PoS would lead to deflation. Event trigger dates and issuance assumptions used to consider maximum supply scenarios. Very likely 120M max supply - as evidenced in the most conservative scenario.

What's impressive is that even in the "best guess" scenario, there's a lot of padding in the numbers. The daily fee burn for example references transaction volume at the magnitude we've seen today, and doesn't factor further growth.

Below is another attempt at boxing the range of probable staking APY's for ETH PoS. Currently there are 4M ETH staked on Beacon Chain. Assuming 6M ETH staked when merge, and daily EVM fees remain the same as they are today, there would be a 25%APR reward for staking ETH - this dynamic freezes ETH supply to secure the network whilst the demand for the network helps burn off excess supply. This slush will adjust itself until the incentives for long-term staking rewards and network participation find equilibrium.



Not a crystal ball. Just some numbers, but worth discussing.

 

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[Timmy C]

How do you guys decide when to pull then?

Genuine question - is it more data driven or gut feeling (or both)?

Well, for me.

I dollar cost average in to the market. And I dollar cost average out.

You don't have to sell all of your stash at once, and yeh, I will make less money than other doing that. But I sleep like a baby at night

I have strong opinions that are loosely held about where I think it's going, but I also realise I might be wrong.

So I DCA out of the market as well, so I can catch anymore upside.

I rarely sell 100% of my positions in one go.

It is both a gut feeling.
Technical analysis, as well as on chain date on glassnode.

If you ha e experienced a market cycle before in crypto, like I and many others here have, you would hope you can spot that euphoria in the air again that signals it's close.

 

[Timmy C]

You can believe the bull market is still far from the top and still start DCA out of altcoin positions.
DCA out, just exposes you to less downside risk and is a smart thing to do I think.
It also presents an opportunity to buy things at a discount later.

 

[Ocean Man]

Planning on developing a pretty interesting and simple application not related to finance. I'll update you guys after we dev it. Pretty fun getting to know the ETH ecosystem.

 

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[Timmy C]

They will tell stories 100 years from now. In 2021 most of the population still believed government currency was real, and most people still held zero coins. Those people will be a laughing stock, much like how Peter Schiff already is.

 

[ramonorencio]

Bitcoin 320k at the top of this 2021 bullrun
80k at the bottom, after the bullrun. Just felt like writing this and seeing it in a few years lol

 

[Timmy C]

Bitcoin 320k at the top of this 2021 bullrun
80k at the bottom, after the bullrun. Just felt like writing this and seeing it in a few years lol

When are you scheduling your Forbes interview?

 

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[Timmy C]

Dogecoin is the future I can see it now.

You: Can I have a coffee please?
Cashier: that's three doges.
You: woof woof woof!

 

[EvanOkanagan]

Bitcoin 320k at the top of this 2021 bullrun
80k at the bottom, after the bullrun. Just felt like writing this and seeing it in a few years lol

Your predictions will be about as right as most in this thread I'd imagine!

 

[ramonorencio]

Your predictions will be about as right as most in this thread I'd imagine!

Well, at least I got this thing right. So far pretty profitable lol

 

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[EvanOkanagan]

You should be one of the "expert panelists" in Forbes:

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why Bitcoin Could Be About To Soar To $100,000

An expert panel has predicted the bitcoin price will climb to just over $100,000 per bitcoin in 2021—with almost a third of the panelists surveyed forecasting bitcoin could climb past $120,000...

www.forbes.com

"While the panel consensus is for the bitcoin price to end 2021 just shy of $100,000, they expect bitcoin to continue climbing over the next few years to a staggering $360,000 by 2025—a percentage increase of over 500%."

 

[GPM]

Forbes predictions lol. My prediction would involve more "mad seesaw action" and "general public losing their shirt between crazed euphoria and mind boggling panic"

 

[Antifragile]

Forbes predictions lol. My prediction would involve more "mad seesaw action" and "general public losing their shirt between crazed euphoria and mind boggling panic"

same can be said of stock markets.

 

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[ramonorencio]

You should be one of the "expert panelists" in Forbes:

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why Bitcoin Could Be About To Soar To $100,000

An expert panel has predicted the bitcoin price will climb to just over $100,000 per bitcoin in 2021—with almost a third of the panelists surveyed forecasting bitcoin could climb past $120,000...

www.forbes.com

"While the panel consensus is for the bitcoin price to end 2021 just shy of $100,000, they expect bitcoin to continue climbing over the next few years to a staggering $360,000 by 2025—a percentage increase of over 500%."

Hey, I just look at the charts. Origin lines and all that good stuff. Lol

 

[AceVentures]

While we're worrying about price action, big money is getting strategic and grabbing opportunities.

Anyone on this forum that aspires for an Unscripted life should be paying attention to DeFi.

In a world whose legacy gatekeepers are looking for a Great Reset, crypto economies provide the ultimate cover. The incentives are aligned, and the flow of money is revealing clear patterns.

But idk man, maybe the 2 trilly in crypto rn is just all a scam, and it should instead be buying Amazon/Netflix stocks. Or no real estate! That's more solid. The housing market never goes down. Or wait maybe gold! Yess shiny metal everybody is going to want my certificates for shiny gold in the future. These Gen z and millennials who are shaping the future sure value all this shiny gold metal.

 

[Antifragile]

@AceVentures
You should start a newsletter.

Here is a post from someone who gets it. Not a "price" prediction but a good prediction nonetheless:
The Future of Bitcoin Will Not Look Like You Think it Will

 

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[Sethamus]

In a world whose legacy gatekeepers are looking for a Great Reset, crypto economies provide the ultimate cover. The incentives are aligned, and the flow of money is revealing clear patterns.

View: https://youtu.be/mDlnM481Gcg


If you haven’t watch this ( I think it was in the economics thread) it will open your eyes. I mean I assumed most of this, but it was still crazy to see it all connected.

World bank is in talks for each country and has even started a central bank coin. At some point I see them demonize btc and maybe eth to have mass adoption of their coins that they made from nothing. Only to use the income to purchase the private coins that are a threat to them.

 

[GPM]

I am getting the itch to sell some silver and trade it for some more mining equipment right now. Hmmm, keep the shiny, or get some electronics that go Brrrrrr and make it uncomfortably warm in the summer?

Life's great dilemmas

 

[Timmy C]

View: https://youtu.be/mDlnM481Gcg


If you haven’t watch this ( I think it was in the economics thread) it will open your eyes. I mean I assumed most of this, but it was still crazy to see it all connected.

World bank is in talks for each country and has even started a central bank coin. At some point I see them demonize btc and maybe eth to have mass adoption of their coins that they made from nothing. Only to use the income to purchase the private coins that are a threat to them.

CBDC is extremely bullish for cryptocurrencies.
CBDC will destroy everyone's privacy, if they want taxes they take it right out of your wallet.
Once people see all of the issues with CBDC it will be very easy for them to move to crypto as they were forced to learn how to use a digital wallet due to it.
At that point, it will be very easy for them to switch to crypto.

 

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[ElleMg]

Not only do I think it is all but a certainty to drop 70%.

I predict it will be much worse than that due to institutional selling.

They aren't in love with bitcoin like most in this thread. Tesla has already sold 10%.

They will push it sky high.

They will also sell it into the ground.

It's a trade to them. Nothing more, and nothing less.

Yes I saw that with Tesla. Thanks for the info Timmy!

 

[ElleMg]

CBDC is extremely bullish for cryptocurrencies.
CBDC will destroy everyone's privacy, if they want taxes they take it right out of your wallet.
Once people see all of the issues with CBDC it will be very easy for them to move to crypto as they were forced to learn how to use a digital wallet due to it.
At that point, it will be very easy for them to switch to crypto.

Do you think CBDC will give people 'perks' to try lure them in, or just have it as the only option?

 

[Kak]

Not only do I think it is all but a certainty to drop 70%.

I predict it will be much worse than that due to institutional selling.

They aren't in love with bitcoin like most in this thread. Tesla has already sold 10%.

They will push it sky high.

They will also sell it into the ground.

It's a trade to them. Nothing more, and nothing less.

Institutional are historically slow. They’re often the bag holders on a fast move. They know this and that was why it was such a big deal when they finally bought in. It brought some stability that only the institutionals do.

My prediction is that IF there is a 70% sell off… Those bold souls that want to try to catch the falling knife aren’t going to feel so bold when an early call might mean a 30-50% immediate short term loss. Funny how they are more likely to buy up here.

I don’t know what will happen to bitcoin price. It may never stop going up, or it may never stop going down from here…

What is easy to consider is the psychology of people that lose money. It will be a hard climb back up if it does dump 70%. You always have to wonder if it’s going to dump 90%. There is always that unknown factor. Fresh in the minds of all the lovers of BTC. When those people start to say they “got burned” because “bitcoin is a scam” it is going to take a while.

On other words, If I decide to buy, I’ll sit back and relax for a while. No knife catching. I’ll let the bottom stabilize for a few months before I buy some.

The anti dollar money that does flow out of BTC goes somewhere though. I’m going to guess gold, silver, REITs and commodity ETFs.

 

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[Timmy C]

Institutional are historically slow. They’re often the bag holders on a fast move. They know this and that was why it was such a big deal when they finally bought in. It brought some stability that only the institutionals do.

My prediction is that IF there is a 70% sell off… Those bold souls that want to try to catch the falling knife aren’t going to feel so bold when an early call might mean a 30-50% immediate short term loss. Funny how they are more likely to buy up here.

I don’t know what will happen to bitcoin price. It may never stop going up, or it may never stop going down from here…

What is easy to consider is the psychology of people that lose money. It will be a hard climb back up if it does dump 70%. You always have to wonder if it’s going to dump 90%. There is always that unknown factor. Fresh in the minds of all the lovers of BTC. When those people start to say they “got burned” because “bitcoin is a scam” it is going to take a while.

On other words, If I decide to buy, I’ll sit back and relax for a while. No knife catching. I’ll let the bottom stabilize for a few months before I buy some.

The anti dollar money that does flow out of BTC goes somewhere though. I’m going to guess gold, silver, REITs and commodity ETFs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see gold go on a tear after/if there is a severe crash in crypto, which if history is any indication, it is only a matter of time.

I can see it now:
People that have huge losses say bitcoin is a scam, and they should have just bought gold.

Gold will pump, and Peter Schiff can dance on the graves of us toxic bitcoiners once again!

It should be entertaining.

 

[Ing]

Some months ago in here I read about some guys going into cryptos. I didn’t dare to believe. My fault again.(After others like Covid19 predictions)
I try to set more trust into you guys.

Yesterday I bought the first ETH my son mined from him and than got USD for it.


Investing in gold:

Is physical gold the only way to participate on the gold hype or can it be done buying stocks or so?