Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Timmy C]

Do you think BTC will drop 70%+ in the next bear market? I've seen a prediction a lot of people would buy in at a 30-50% drop

Not only do I think it is all but a certainty to drop 70%.

I predict it will be much worse than that due to institutional selling.

They aren't in love with bitcoin like most in this thread. Tesla has already sold 10%.

They will push it sky high.

They will also sell it into the ground.

It's a trade to them. Nothing more, and nothing less.

 

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[Timmy C]

If you think your altcoin is a winner.

Your most likely very wrong.

The top 10 changes every year and all fall of a cliff to be never heard of again.

They are the first things I sell.

Not one coin will be spared with blood shed.

99% losses are all but a guarantee.

 

[Timmy C]

BTC market cap dominance broke under %50.

Alt season.

 

[Ing]

What I have seen, thes altcoins follow the BTC with some months .
When you bought any of these in Dec 20, you couldn’t be too stupid to win until Feb. worst x10, best x100 or more zeros.

I will now learn to trade to make no mistakes in the method, and when the waves have smoothend, I will throw some money in different coins. And i. ETH and BTC.

I have read some BTC are destoyed to work against inflation. In that phases the BTC rises. Maybe thats in 2 or so years.

I ve read that. May be wrong or right. Don’t know.

 

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[Ing]

Anybody into MATIC? I've had a couple good trades with it but I think I'll be holding for a while now.

Bought for 0.03 in Jan, sold at 0.12 in Feb - first ever alt trade
Bought at 0.20 , sold at 0.47 (March)
Bought back at 0.34 towards start of April

Its ,65 now. You think the will survive that high?

 

[Timmy C]

What I have seen, thes altcoins follow the BTC with some months .
When you bought any of these in Dec 20, you couldn’t be too stupid to win until Feb. worst x10, best x100 or more zeros.

I will now learn to trade to make no mistakes in the method, and when the waves have smoothend, I will throw some money in different coins. And i. ETH and BTC.

I have read some BTC are destoyed to work against inflation. In that phases the BTC rises. Maybe thats in 2 or so years.

I ve read that. May be wrong or right. Don’t know.

Be careful thinking your smarter than you are.

 

[Deleted78083]

Not only do I think it is all but a certainty to drop 70%.

I predict it will be much worse than that due to institutional selling.

They aren't in love with bitcoin like most in this thread. Tesla has already sold 10%.

They will push it sky high.

They will also sell it into the ground.

It's a trade to them. Nothing more, and nothing less.

So what's your play then? I have seen you here saying you'd rather sleep in the street than sell.

Oops, it kinda looks passive-agressive, I am genuinely interested in your answer : )

 

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[Timmy C]

So what's your play then? I have seen you here saying you'd rather sleep in the street than sell.

Oops, it kinda looks passive-agressive, I am genuinely interested in your answer : )

This applies to bitcoin yeh.

Everything else I have no problem liquidating.

In fact, I already started months ago.

 

[Timmy C]

ETH

0.51

 

[Fox]

Getting pretty close to buying a house in Ireland from 100% ETH gains.

It is a house in an area that flooded way back so it would need to be a cash deal (no mortgage possible).
They did a lot of flood prevention work since and the house was fully fixed so it is fine now.

It will cashflow around 1k euros a month and I only need a few more weeks with the current ETH gains to pay for the whole thing. Just got to account for 33% cap gains for Ireland.

When things are heating up so much it is tempting to see how long it goes but at the same time to buy a whole house with a reasonably small starting crypto investment would be solid. No point getting greedy.

I will keep you all posted if it happens.

 

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[Timmy C]

Getting pretty close to buying a house in Ireland from 100% ETH gains.

It is a house in an area that flooded way back so it would need to be a cash deal (no mortgage possible).
They did a lot of flood prevention work since and the house was fully fixed so it is fine now.

It will cashflow around 1k euros a month and I only need a few more weeks with the current ETH gains to pay for the whole thing. Just got to account for 33% cap gains for Ireland.

When things are heating up so much it is tempting to see how long it goes but at the same time to buy a whole house with a reasonably small starting crypto investment would be solid. No point getting greedy.

I will keep you all posted if it happens.

Do what's right for you mate!

Maybe leave like 10-20% in just in case

 

[Sethamus]

Getting pretty close to buying a house in Ireland from 100% ETH gains.

It is a house in an area that flooded way back so it would need to be a cash deal (no mortgage possible).
They did a lot of flood prevention work since and the house was fully fixed so it is fine now.

It will cashflow around 1k euros a month and I only need a few more weeks with the current ETH gains to pay for the whole thing. Just got to account for 33% cap gains for Ireland.

When things are heating up so much it is tempting to see how long it goes but at the same time to buy a whole house with a reasonably small starting crypto investment would be solid. No point getting greedy.

I will keep you all posted if it happens.

No option for a loan at all, even private? If you think ETh will go up in the next few months could you not just make a hefty down payment (50%). Will leave you exposed to crypto and also allow you to take profit and roll into real estate. Not sure of prices there, but I would assume it still would cash flow at $1000/mo income with 50% down.

 

[Antifragile]

@Timmy C
I predict you are wrong with your statements about institutional buyers driving BTC into the ground. I’d be surprised if Tesla sold al do their holding if your prediction of 70-90% drop in value. Maybe if the value of coin went up 3x from today and then down 70%. But from today’s values, my crystal ball says no. You keep selling, and I’ll pick up a little more.
Goes without saying, none of us know! I could be more wrong then anyone else. My thinking goes that There is a wider adoption of this technology. Swings are getting smaller. The days of 90% drop are over (BTC, not alt coins, those can be down to nothing). Here’s is an interesting story:
First licensed digital bank UAE

 

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[Timmy C]

@Timmy C
I predict you are wrong with your statements about institutional buyers driving BTC into the ground. I’d be surprised if Tesla sold al do their holding if your prediction of 70-90% drop in value. Maybe if the value of coin went up 3x from today and then down 70%. But from today’s values, my crystal ball says no. You keep selling, and I’ll pick up a little more.
Goes without saying, none of us know! I could be more wrong then anyone else. My thinking goes that There is a wider adoption of this technology. Swings are getting smaller. The days of 90% drop are over (BTC, not alt coins, those can be down to nothing). Here’s is an interesting story:
First licensed digital bank UAE

Ok

 

[Timmy C]

@Timmy C
I predict you are wrong with your statements about institutional buyers driving BTC into the ground. I’d be surprised if Tesla sold al do their holding if your prediction of 70-90% drop in value. Maybe if the value of coin went up 3x from today and then down 70%. But from today’s values, my crystal ball says no. You keep selling, and I’ll pick up a little more.
Goes without saying, none of us know! I could be more wrong then anyone else. My thinking goes that There is a wider adoption of this technology. Swings are getting smaller. The days of 90% drop are over (BTC, not alt coins, those can be down to nothing). Here’s is an interesting story:
First licensed digital bank UAE

It's like people don't read.

A 70-90% drop from the top.

If you think it's not smart to DCA out of altcoins, I have a bridge you can jump off.

 

[Antifragile]

It's like people don't read.

A 70-90% drop from the top.

If you think it's not smart to DCA out of altcoins, I have a bridge you can jump off.

OK, got it. 70% from the top. What do you define as the top? If you are selling today (as you said you started months ago), then you are saying we’ve peaked.
Remind me, aren’t you the one going on a rant for how we must be in a hyper inflation?
There are a lot of contradictions in your posts buddy, don’t blame the reader for having a hard time following your line of thinking. Clarify.

 

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[Timmy C]

OK, got it. 70% from the top. What do you define as the top? If you are selling today (as you said you started months ago), then you are saying we’ve peaked.
Remind me, aren’t you the one going on a rant for how we must be in a hyper inflation?
There are a lot of contradictions in your posts buddy, don’t blame the reader for having a hard time following your line of thinking. Clarify.

There is ZERO contradictions you just cant read.

 

[Timmy C]

Hey guys I bought this altcoin, and im gonna not sell any as it's an inflation hedge shitcoin.

Why DCA out of this position?
Such value!
Long term!

Unlimited supply

Such wow!

 

[AceVentures]

No investment is safe. No coin is safe. No market is safe.

Stories drive everything. If the story changes in people's head, everything can change in a blink of an eye.

If you followed the BTC as a store of value story, you made some money but missed out on crazy gains in ETH. If you followed the ETH story, you made some money but missed out on some of the scaling stories like SOL, MATIC, BSC, etc. If you followed the scaling stories, you made some money but missed out on the memecoins and so on.

You need to know how the story is being told and at the same time how it is actually unfolding. It's what people believe that is the most important thing - so try your best to be aware of the current consensus around each story. There is money to be made, but don't grow attached to any one story or you can get smoked pretty quickly.

All it takes is one small majority to shift their perspective around a given story for the entire story to be influenced, and subsequently the belief around the value of the thing to change. If the story you've invested your money in doesn't have almost a cult-like conviction behind it, be prepared for turmoil.

 

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[Matt Sun]

I think that "super-cycle" talk sounds great. We don't have to sell, we can keep making gains forever... It feels great to belive it. But yeah, I think not. You need great volatility to make great gains. It will go down super hard IMO. With BTC dominance under 47% it shouldn't bee too far.

I'm just not sure about Eth's price since this "multiple halvings like" event will happen in just 3 months.

 

[Antifragile]

I’m not sure such a thing as a super cycle exists. Every time someone says things like that, I want to run the other way. Anyone else remember the 90s housing crash? Or dot com? Or Global Financial Crisis? All were believed to go on forever

 

[GPM]

I have been saying the same thing as @Timmy C about the 80-90% drop being FROM THE TOP! Just because someone is selling some today does not mean we are at the top.

You want to know what the top is? Fast forward 3 months AFTER it crashes and look for the peak, that is the top. No one know what the top is right now because we are not there yet. After Ethereum is sitting at ~$1000 go look back 3 months and see where it peaked, that is the freaking top.

Maybe Eth goes to $5,000. Maybe it goes to $7,000. Heck, maybe it goes to $20,000. No one knows. And no one knows what the top is until after we come crashing down from it. Wherever we land will likely be 80-90% less than where it peaked.

Any numbers anyone gives is just a guess, because that is all anyone can give you. Find something that you are comfortable with and run with it. Anything that anyone tells you is going to be 99.999% wrong anyways. The only crystal ball that works with crypto is mine, and mine says $10,000 Ethereum, followed by a most spectacular crash to somewhere around $1,000. Take that with a grain of smashed crystal ball dust from all the crystal balls that broke in 2018.

 

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[Fox]

I have been saying the same thing as @Timmy C about the 80-90% drop being FROM THE TOP! Just because someone is selling some today does not mean we are at the top.

You want to know what the top is? Fast forward 3 months AFTER it crashes and look for the peak, that is the top. No one know what the top is right now because we are not there yet. After Ethereum is sitting at ~$1000 go look back 3 months and see where it peaked, that is the freaking top.

Maybe Eth goes to $5,000. Maybe it goes to $7,000. Heck, maybe it goes to $20,000. No one knows. And no one knows what the top is until after we come crashing down from it. Wherever we land will likely be 80-90% less than where it peaked.

Any numbers anyone gives is just a guess, because that is all anyone can give you. Find something that you are comfortable with and run with it. Anything that anyone tells you is going to be 99.999% wrong anyways. The only crystal ball that works with crypto is mine, and mine says $10,000 Ethereum, followed by a most spectacular crash to somewhere around $1,000. Take that with a grain of smashed crystal ball dust from all the crystal balls that broke in 2018.

How do you guys decide when to pull then?

Genuine question - is it more data driven or gut feeling (or both)?

 

[GPM]

I personally have been taking a bit of profit monthly from Ethereum. Using it to expand my mining hardware, and using some for rent. I have a portion that I wont sell until it hits where I feel its going to crash shortly after.

What I am looking for are these manic 2018 signals that were present before. The local barber getting a second mortgage on his house because it is going to the moon. Red neck drunk idiots on twitter bragging about how they are going to turn their 100k loan into millions with bitcoin. Stuff like that.

I also keep an eye on the google trends for bitcoin. Take a look at how that peaked in 2013 until 2017. Then add 2018 into there and the interest from 2018 made 2013 look like a flat line. We are at like 40% interest now compared to 2018. I figure at an absolute minimum we will have at least a little bit more interest now compared to 2018.

I mean for goodness sake, our father almighty Elon announced that his chosen son, Tesla, was purchasing like a T bill worth of bitcoin and internet mania barely did anything. I think we have some room to grow.

I am looking for some real mania, and crazy 10% or so gains day after day for a week, maybe more. When people are frothing at the mouth to get rich I am selling 80% of my "don't touch this" stack. I figure once mania hits in I have a week to watch and get out. At which point I won't have much left so I WILL NOT LOOK anymore. I am going to avoid looking at prices because chances are I will miss the top by a big margin and it will piss me off. However, once it all crashes down it really does not matter where I got out at, the current prices are going to be so low compared to that.

For some funny reference, I sold 27 Ethereum last year at an average price of $500ish CAD. Current price is $3400 CAD. I sold to pay some bills, not to have "money". Guess I need to work on increasing my income channels so that I don't need to do stuff like this.

 

[Antifragile]

How do you guys decide when to pull then?

Genuine question - is it more data driven or gut feeling (or both)?

At this time I only use my f-u money for crypto. It's like a casino. For whatever it's worth, if I see BTC at $80K USD, I'll start selling. If I see ETH at 6-8K USD, I'll sell too. Today's prices for BTC seem OK for me, they may go down to $40K but I'd be surprised to see it well below that number. Everyone has some idea as to why their crystal ball is better than other, mine tells me that the bigger players entering BTC is a good thing for the total price. Ups and downs of 20-30% are to be expected, it's a speculative asset.

I saw you were thinking of buying a rental property from your ETH gains, I am not sure I'd have the stones to hold on to ETH if I invested enough to buy a house. I'd probably sell most of it, buy that property and only keep f-u money in it. I can't see it as investment when there is no rational way to calculate value. But if there was a way to calculate value, there would be no mo volatility and no more high gains/losses. That's the fun part about this whole thing, it's a roller coaster.

 

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[Antifragile]

Bitcoin, Ethereum Face Huge $4.5BN In Friday Option Expiration: What To Expect​

 

[Sethamus]

I personally have been taking a bit of profit monthly from Ethereum. Using it to expand my mining hardware, and using some for rent. I have a portion that I wont sell until it hits where I feel its going to crash shortly after.

What I am looking for are these manic 2018 signals that were present before. The local barber getting a second mortgage on his house because it is going to the moon. Red neck drunk idiots on twitter bragging about how they are going to turn their 100k loan into millions with bitcoin. Stuff like that.

I also keep an eye on the google trends for bitcoin. Take a look at how that peaked in 2013 until 2017. Then add 2018 into there and the interest from 2018 made 2013 look like a flat line. We are at like 40% interest now compared to 2018. I figure at an absolute minimum we will have at least a little bit more interest now compared to 2018.

I mean for goodness sake, our father almighty Elon announced that his chosen son, Tesla, was purchasing like a T bill worth of bitcoin and internet mania barely did anything. I think we have some room to grow.

I am looking for some real mania, and crazy 10% or so gains day after day for a week, maybe more. When people are frothing at the mouth to get rich I am selling 80% of my "don't touch this" stack. I figure once mania hits in I have a week to watch and get out. At which point I won't have much left so I WILL NOT LOOK anymore. I am going to avoid looking at prices because chances are I will miss the top by a big margin and it will piss me off. However, once it all crashes down it really does not matter where I got out at, the current prices are going to be so low compared to that.

For some funny reference, I sold 27 Ethereum last year at an average price of $500ish CAD. Current price is $3400 CAD. I sold to pay some bills, not to have "money". Guess I need to work on increasing my income channels so that I don't need to do stuff like this.

How do you see your mining venture take place after “a crash” and staking comes out? Do you have a plan for continuing it? Just curious.

 

[Fox]

I am not sure I'd have the stones to hold on to ETH if I invested enough to buy a house. I'd probably sell most of it, buy that property and only keep f-u money in it. I can't see it as investment when there is no rational way to calculate value.

It was FU money at the start but now its turned into house money (or close). I'll see how the next few weeks go.

Thanks

 

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[AceVentures]

How do you guys decide when to pull then?

Genuine question - is it more data driven or gut feeling (or both)?

I don't ever plan on pulling out. I'll play the swings, take profit and buy dips.

But I'm very long on some of this stuff. For me there is no other asset that I would prefer to own today than ETH. And I have no need for fiat at the moment. I can get fiat or the equivalent of fiat almost instantly when I want to.

My plan is to continue to participate in this economy. 1ETH will always = 1ETH. So my bet on ETH is not on it's price vs the USD, it's on whether or not ETH the economy will be prosperous enough for me to participate in and outpace my earning potential vs the traditional/sovereign economies.

I got a loan a few days ago, in USD, within seconds using DeFi. A massive loan for that matter. Something I've never done in traditional finance because of all the red tape and the bureaucracy around getting loans. But in DeFi I can do it in one click. In fact, I can get self-paying loans that intelligently use the yield from my collateral to pay off my debt. And that's just the beginning for what smart-contracts enable as financial tools. "self driving banks"

Why would I take an instrument that enables me that level of power, one which is about to experience a supply crisis the equivalent of 3 bitcoin halvings over the next 18 months and exchange it for a piece of paper that is seeing the level of supply increase shown below?



My intuition tells me the "bubble" popping is not ETH or BTC. The value that ETH produces doesn't stop over night, but all things equal, in a scenario where people are banding together to form a shared belief around money, the system that has a rigged supply mechanism won't be favored especially when fruitful alternative economies are emerging. In fact, the value that ETH produces becomes exponentially higher in a scenario like today with political and economic turmoil everywhere.

JP Morgan, one of the biggest banks in America, is offering 2yr bonds secured on ETH. Mastercard and Visa want to secure global payments via ETH. The SEC chairman was an MIT cryptocurrency professor, and vocal SEC commissioners are emphasizing their openness to empower innovation using blockchain. The Rothschild buy ETH and BTC, and everybody and their momma that was worth a damn in Sillicon Valley is working around the clock to participate in this economy.

And you're going to FUD over it going down? If it wasn't the future of payments, why would the global fintech leaders in payment pour assymetric amounts of cash into building crypto-secured payment channels?

I follow the story as it's unfolding, and today it seems like it's unfolding in the shape of ETH going up, and USD going down. Idc what shape the chart had in 2017. That's not my crystal ball. My crystal ball is my intuition and my understanding of the world.

 

[Deleted78083]

Everyone keeps on saying they are expecting a crash, so I don't know, I guess it means there likely won't be any.

My crystal ball says we'll probably never see BTC under 40k ever again. ETH is gonna moon to 10k. And all of my altcoins will die, besides NEXO.