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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

GPM

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Lol Dogecoin. I see they have gone up 10x since December, that is pretty crazy!
 
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GPM

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I am sure Elon holds a few...
 

Kevin88660

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MTF

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Timmy C

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Bitcoin is not a private currency. It is an open, decentralized currency that can’t be shut down. The Pakistan government tried to ban Bitcoin and adoption went up, not down.

The network doesn’t care about the arbitrary rules of elite douchebags.

 
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Timmy C

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it would be interesting to read the actuall bill itself.

The funny thing is, I don't even think they know the true definition. I imagine it will be like reading a book written by a toddler.
 

Timmy C

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The more countries that ban it the better.

The Streisand effect:

It is a social phenomenon that occurs when an attempt to hide, remove, or censor information has the unintended consequence of further publicizing that information, often via the Internet.
 

Matt Sun

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Goldman Sachs: "Short Squeez of WSB vs Hedge Funds could crash the market"

Last time the market crashed (March 2020) crypto also crashed. I'm getting kind of fearfull. Would it be a good idea to pull money to some stablecoin and maybe even be prepared to buy the crash ? What do you guys think ?
 
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csalvato

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Goldman Sachs: "Short Squeez of WSB vs Hedge Funds could crash the market"

Last time the market crashed (March 2020) crypto also crashed. I'm getting kind of fearfull. Would it be a good idea to pull money to some stablecoin and maybe even be prepared to buy the crash ? What do you guys think ?

This is a hard thing to predict, IMO.

Whne the market and BTC crashed together in March 2020, the crypto world (and world at large) was in a very different place.

Since then, there were a few times where BTC decoupled from markets (and even went up as DXY went up).

It could be that BTC will be decoupled from those markets very soon. But maybe not. Hard to tell.
 

Xeon

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These Musk wankers never cease to amaze me. So if he casually tweets that everytime he drinks dog pee, the stock market will swing in his favor, are his wankers going to follow suit?
 

Timmy C

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These Musk wankers never cease to amaze me. So if he casually tweets that everytime he drinks dog pee, the stock market will swing in his favor, are his wankers going to follow suit?
Yes.

He has enormous influence anything he says both good and bad will move the price of any asset.
 
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theag

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View attachment 36612

This Mayor guy is certainly doing a lot of things right from a personal branding and city marketing perspective. Curious how this will work out in real life, though.
 
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csalvato

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ETH broke all time high about an hour ago. We will see if it follows BTCs lead of rocketing up 100% after breaking ATH.
 

James Fake

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From a glance look... I'm not really feeling this Bitcoin rally. Although it's not a law that Bitcoin has to move inversely with the DXY (US Dollar); something about the way Bitcoin is rallying alongside the way the US Dollar is bouncing and coming off this area feels.... suspect.

Granted; it is merely a feeling. And I'll try to see if I can identify any pattern or previous situations in the past that played with the same sentiment.

I will say that this might even completely cancel out my mid-term projections; which was basically a rally to $60k over the course of February and March.

Even to the point so where I have began reducing some of my crypto exposure. Overkill? Could be...

Going to update again after hitting the charts a bit.
 

OverByte

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Anyone come across this recent post about more Tether fraud accusations? The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine and have any commentary on it?

I don’t buy all the analysis as it seems like author is inferring causation from correlation in many cases. However I think the lack of transparency around tether and the various lawsuits are concerning and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a fraud, I’d actually be very surprised if they have 20+ billion usd in their bank account... If it turns out tether is a fraud unbacked and has been pumping btc this seems like it could cause a potential serious drop. I read the company behind tether got another extension on the docs they were supposed to provide the attorney general and that it will be released within 30 days of Jan 15.

Lets assume for sake of argument that Tether is fraud and the pump into btc is real which means a whole lot of demand goes away for btc. In this case what kind of market reaction do you foresee? Massive drop due to lower overall demand, short term spike due to mass selloff of usdt? Other hypotheses?
 
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csalvato

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Anyone come across this recent post about more Tether fraud accusations? The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine and have any commentary on it?

I don’t buy all the analysis as it seems like author is inferring causation from correlation in many cases. However I think the lack of transparency around tether and the various lawsuits are concerning and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a fraud, I’d actually be very surprised if they have 20+ billion usd in their bank account... If it turns out tether is a fraud unbacked and has been pumping btc this seems like it could cause a potential serious drop. I read the company behind tether got another extension on the docs they were supposed to provide the attorney general and that it will be released within 30 days of Jan 15.

Lets assume for sake of argument that Tether is fraud and the pump into btc is real which means a whole lot of demand goes away for btc. In this case what kind of market reaction do you foresee? Massive drop due to lower overall demand, short term spike due to mass selloff of usdt? Other hypotheses?
I would expect a transient drop that would last 1-3 years then a rally as demand catches up

Possibly shorter than that, since a lot of people would buy up at cheap prices
 

neofox

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Did anyone catch Mark Cuban on r/WallStreetBets? I think that's part of why ETH went up as he says he holds it - amongst other coins.
 

Timmy C

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From a glance look... I'm not really feeling this Bitcoin rally. Although it's not a law that Bitcoin has to move inversely with the DXY (US Dollar); something about the way Bitcoin is rallying alongside the way the US Dollar is bouncing and coming off this area feels.... suspect.

Granted; it is merely a feeling. And I'll try to see if I can identify any pattern or previous situations in the past that played with the same sentiment.

I will say that this might even completely cancel out my mid-term projections; which was basically a rally to $60k over the course of February and March.

Even to the point so where I have began reducing some of my crypto exposure. Overkill? Could be...

Going to update again after hitting the charts a bit.
I donno man, I am not a TA experte. But it looks ready for an explosion.

Especially ETH. Cup and handle, ascending triangle.
 
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ChrisV

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I'd be careful investing too much in Crytocurrencies. All it takes is one FTC filing for the entire thing to potentially come crashing down. It sounds cool now but, ask yourself this: What happens if (when) the government decides to crack down on Crytocurrencies? The whole point of Cryptos is to take power away from Government monetary systems. You think they're going to let that happen?

Even more haunting is: Does anyone know what people actually buy with Cryptocurriencies? Have you ever purchased something with Bitcoin? I hate to break it to you but 90% what cryptocurrency's are used for is for buying heroin and handguns off the dark web.

The Government very likely will start cracking down on Cryptos. Even aside from the drugs, they're a wonderland for tax evasion since they're all but untraceable.

Also, Bitcoin and the other cryptos are vulnerable to technological advances. Bitcoin transactions sometimes take hours to process because if the verification process. If a blockchain technology comes along that offers immediate verification, Bitcoin will be rendered obsolete. Are people going to start buying products on the web with BTC? By the time it's done processing you could have already had your Amazon Prime package lol.

Take it back to First Principals; when you make an investment you're basically betting that X product will become a huge part of life in the future. If you buy stock in a company you are betting that that company is going to grow in the future.

Trading from First Principals is the smart way to trade. Anything else is a get-rich-quick mentality. The get-rich-quick approach is "my friend just made $10,000 on Bitcoin! I need to get in on this! Cha-ching!!" I had someone call me the other night telling me Ineeded to invest in Dogecoin because it just went up _%. But an investment's past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Does anyone really think that Dogecoin is going to become an intergral part of how we live our life in the future?

dogecoin-1000x600.jpg

Leave the lottery mentality to the slowlaners.

Buttom line is.... sure - invest s little short term. You can definitely make a bunch of short-term money on all the idiots who think it's gonna be the next-big-thing. But I would not suggest using it as a ling term investment strategy, and I definitely don't putting all your eggs in this basket. I think that most, if not all, of the current Cryptos are way too vulnerable. There are so many things that can go wrong and crash the whole thing.
 

csalvato

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@ChrisV Normally I'm pretty aligned with your posts, but I think you're way off base here, and most your facts are not accurate at all.

For example, less than 1% of all Tx through BTC are for illicit activity, not 90%. This is easily verifiable with data from reputable sources:


Bitcoin is still popular among currency speculators, and illicit activity accounts for only 1 percent of all Bitcoin transactions. But that nearly doubled from the previous year. Illegal activity appeared to be one of the few parts of the Bitcoin economy impervious to changes in price, according to Chainalysis’s new Crypto Crime Report.

And you know what's used the most for illicit activity, and blows BTC out of the water in that space? The US dollar.

The Government very likely will start cracking down on Cryptos

I fully accept that a ban may happen.

But that that will drive price up, not down, and governments effectively suck at banning anything (drugs, prostitution, INSIDERS trading, you name it).

Still, there's a significant probability that this may never come to pass.

Despite how it's in the gov'ts best interest to fight crypto with nuclear power, they are doing the opposite:
  • Senators like Cynthia Lumis in WY are pushing to reduce the barriers for businesses to accept and use crypto.
  • Our SEC chair is a former blockchain professor at MIT
  • Our Comptroller of Currency is the former CFO for Coinbase.
  • Yellen has openly said that she wants to minimize the use of BTC for illegal activity but foster its growth for legitimate use cases.
  • The mayor of Miami is making moves to pay employees and accept payments in bitcoin and other crypto currencies.
The narrative that the gov't will start cracking down doesn't jive with these objective facts.

Even more haunting is: Does anyone know what people actually buy with Cryptocurriencies? Have you ever purchased something with Bitcoin? I hate to break it to you but 90% what cryptocurrency's are used for is for buying heroin and handguns off the dark web.

This is a 2017 narrative and belief that I would encourage you to reevaluate:
  • People are currently taking out loans in crypto using services like Aave, for example, and earning interest in crypto.
  • Crypto is used to send money quickly and easily from first to third world. This is legit happening all over the world today.
  • People are selling large assets, and only accepting crypto
The examples aren't even too hard to find:

76edb8c3-f1bb-4ec5-9f1b-8968d729bd37.jpg


There are plenty of real life use cases and examples of people accepting crypto as a currency (medium of exchange), and holding it as a store of value. I mean, what more do you need to see here?

Take it back to First Principals; when you make an investment you're basically betting that X product will become a huge part of life in the future. If you buy stock in a company you are betting that that company is going to grow in the future.
At least we agree here on what makes a sound long term investment.

Where we disagree is that you think BTC is not part of that future, despite the wealth of evidence to the contrary.

This isn't get rich quick. Personally, I've been heavily invested and involved in BTC for several years. There's been lots of ups and downs. There's been a lot of evangelism, and people calling me stupid.

Yet, I'm fortunate to say that I've been right on the important things.

In short, I'd encourage you to re-evaluate your beliefs. I think they may be misaligned with reality.
 
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GPM

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All it takes is one FTC filing for the entire thing to potentially come crashing down
The USA does not equal cryptocurrency. I will say that again. There are nearly 8 billion people on the planet, and less than 5% of those are from USA.

Sure they are the richest and have the greatest impact (for now) on what happens in the world. But to think that a borderless online digital currency will be crushed because of a countries short sightedness and fear of its own citizens freedoms is in itself shortsighted.
 
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Timmy C

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People still don't understand this market one bit, but yet think they know what's best for you to do.

Not only is bitcoin a buy short term, but it is also a buy and a long term hold.

A decade long hold.
 

Frinys

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What happens if (when) the government decides to crack down on Crytocurrencies? The whole point of Cryptos is to take power away from Government monetary systems. You think they're going to let that happen?
What government? I guess you mean the government of the USA. Public blockchains are by design global systems. Governments are not. No government can crack down on Cryptocurrencies.

What would happen if China banned the Internet? The rest of the world would get a huge advantage.

What would happen if the USA banned crypto? The rest of the world will get a huge advantage.

The government of the USA knows this. They can try to tax it, regulate it or get their share of it, but they cannot ban it or take it down. Single governments cannot control a global system like blockchain is.

Even more haunting is: Does anyone know what people actually buy with Cryptocurriencies? Have you ever purchased something with Bitcoin? I hate to break it to you but 90% what cryptocurrency's are used for is for buying heroin and handguns off the dark web.
Let me guess. You are an American, you have seen North America, and that's about it? Because this statement is completely false and is based on a limited world view.

In many places in South America (Argentina, Chile, etc)crypto is used because many people don't have access to banks.

In Venezuela, crypto is preferred over their highly inflated Bolívar.

In Russia, crypto is one of the only ways for non-corrupt entrepreneurs to get funding.

Go to South Korea with an Ethereum wallet, and you will never have to buy any Won because crypto is so commonly accepted.

In Africa, at places where the internet is uncommon and almost no one has smartphones, they use SMS to transfer Bitcoin.

Your statement is only true for a very small part of the world, namely Europe and North America. And even in this small part of the world, the legal use of crypto is increasing.

Also, Bitcoin and the other cryptos are vulnerable to technological advances. Bitcoin transactions sometimes take hours to process because if the verification process. If a blockchain technology comes along that offers immediate verification, Bitcoin will be rendered obsolete. Are people going to start buying products on the web with BTC? By the time it's done processing you could have already had your Amazon Prime package lol.

There are many blockchain technologies that offer faster verification than Bitcoin. However, they are less secure. And that's fin

The IP protocol is irreplaceable. Not because it's the best internet protocol, but it was first to be widely adopted.

Bitcoin is irreplaceable because it was the first to be widely adopted. The security a high hashrate PoW consensus blockchain offers is unmatchable. And because Bitcoin was the first blockchain to be adopted, it will keep its status as the most secure.

Just as I don't need a full-blown data center to run a homemade script, you I need bitcoin's security to buy a $3 package from Amazon. But that does not mean that neither data centers nor bitcoin is useless.

However, if I need to send $10,000,000 from Venezuela to Sri Lanka, then I would want to be very sure that the transaction is sent and arrives correctly. (Corrupt) Banks can't offer this security. Neither can Cash. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will. And not only will the transaction be secure, but it also will be both cheap and fast.

Take it back to First Principals; when you make an investment you're basically betting that X product will become a huge part of life in the future. If you buy stock in a company you are betting that that company is going to grow in the future.

It's clear to me that blockchain will become a huge part of everyone's life in the future. We western people just don't fully understand its advantages because we're spoiled with a (so far) well-functioning money system.

But I would not suggest using it as a ling term investment strategy, and I definitely don't putting all your eggs in this basket. I think that most, if not all, of the current Cryptos are way too vulnerable. There are so many things that can go wrong and crash the whole thing.

I think it's a very good long term investment, but it will be a bumpy ride. But dollar-cost averaging can be used to minimize the risks of volatility.

I think we can agree on one thing, to put all eggs in the blockchain basket is a very bad idea. One should never do this, but unfortunately, people do put their eggs in one basket way too often.
 
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AceVentures

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Micahel Saylor live streaming advice on how to move your company's treasury into BTC, and why it's a good move:
View: https://youtu.be/9492rDjejrc

I really can't see how naysayers can persist when there is such a rich source of information out there. Thank you for sharing this!

Some really good points were made. Early on, Ross talks about a perspective on bitcoin that makes it easier for me to think about it: the consideration of Bitcoin as a store of value from two angles -

1. Saleability across time
2. Saleability across space

Saleability across Time:

Even if you assume gold as a store of value - with increased demand, supply can grow. Even at the current 2% growth rate - on a large enough time line, it results in inflation. Bitcoin has no such limitation. Even if the implied value rises 100000% - the supply does not change and follows an asymptotic rate of inflation decrease to 0.

Saleability across Space:

People talk about bitcoin being slow compared to traditional systems' transaction speeds. What they fail to consider is end-to-end or finalized settlements, and a comparison of that type of transaction with bitcoin. Compare apples to apples. When you go to Starbucks to buy a latte with your Visa card - you don't instantaneously transfer funds. There's a credit between the two companies that's established and it can take up to a couple of days for the transaction to close. And that's within an advanced country like the US. Can you imagine wiring money to your family member in say a remote area in Myanmar?

Bitcoin can do end-to-end, finalized settlement, across any border, within an hour.


Another topic that was very exciting to explore:

Today - we struggle with moving power to people. Distributing power, from power sources, to the people who need and use them.

What cryptocurrencies allow for is settlements to be established around power. For example a very large waterfall in a remote area with proper infrastructure to harvest energy can perform mathematics in such a way as to provide value to the entire network. The return on this value to the global network can allow for further infrastructure development and human settlement around such areas.
 

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