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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

nitrousflame

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During the 2001 recession. These dropped 90% in value at the top of a bull market.

Would you mind clarifying this response? I don't think I understand the difference between AMZN dropping 90%+ during an equity recession (bear market) compared to BTC, ETH, etc dropping a similar amount during a crypto bear market.

Or, if you wish, we can stick with the crypto market. Bitcoin has had several such severe drops. What makes Bitcoin fail your "worthless" metric?
 
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Rivoli

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Would you mind clarifying this response? I don't think I understand the difference between AMZN dropping 90%+ during an equity recession (bear market) compared to BTC, ETH, etc dropping a similar amount during a crypto bear market.

Or, if you wish, we can stick with the crypto market. Bitcoin has had several such severe drops. What makes Bitcoin fail your "worthless" metric?

Really? Why in your opinion is crypto in a bear market?
 

nitrousflame

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Really? Why in your opinion is crypto in a bear market?
The reason why crypto is in a bear market is separate from the claim that an investment losing 90% of its value deems it a worthless investment. What I'm trying to work out is why you seem to think that Bitcoin is not worthless, despite itself having lost over 90% of its value on more than one occasion. Have I incorrectly interpreted something you said?
 

James Fake

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There's two routes I think Bitcoin has a strong chance it will take. Blue Line and Orange Line. Both of which eventually reach $8,800 or higher by mid January, but with a prime opportunity and spot (green circle area at the top trend line ) to fill the CME $11.7k gap; I am hoping we touch that price instead by mid-January.

This was posted about 2 months ago.. So far, so good. I am off by about 15 days too early lol. But by some miracle, the overall trend followed really closely to that initial prediction chart.

At this point; the possibility for a "golden cross" of the 50 daily moving average to cross back over the 200 daily moving average is getting better in odds. If we can hold above this ~$9,000 price, retest, reconfirm, the odds would be really good.

In which point; alts would follow by default. And when Bitcoin kind of poots out of gas closer to halving in April/May; I would expect a bit of an ALT Season!... *gasp* Can't believe I really just said those two words lol.
 
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James Fake

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As I'm finally kicking myself into making videos even if it's crap at first... I am doing it lol. Anyways; here's why I think there will be a good chance to rally to $11.8k over the next month or so leading up the Halving.. and what my initial thoughts are for the Halving and it's effects itself.

 

James Fake

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FYI; I'm still holding strong onto my big trend predictions from last year. Things are shaping up fairly well to it.

Here's a slightly smaller time frame of the trends I'm kind of eye'ing.

30137

Pasted Text from the TradingView idea:

Fundamentally; I don't see why not. Things lining up just right.
  • 2018 - 2019: Shorters mainly won. Longers mainly lost.
  • 2020 - 2021 = Longers mainly win. Shorters mainly lose. (people shorting the bottom getting greedy)
  • Golden Cross possible.
  • Gold sharing similar big trend price actions.
  • CME $100 gap.
  • Huge weekly cup & handle possible. Shares same emotional cycle so far of "last side of cup" found in smaller cup & handles.
  • "Steepness" of big timeframe MAs.
  • Volume is a concern, but not necessarily a definitive 'con' as volume can come mid-way and mis-judging volume too early in between the gap is commonly done.

Things To Look For:
  • 200MA retests and success or failures.
  • Random, common folk. (insert Homer Simpson meme where he comes out of the bushes)
  • What the more popular PermaBears show in underlying emotions. Anger, bias, gone missing, denial, etc. etc. All of this can be seen reading in between the lines. Even the action of going missing when they are terribly wrong give off emotional state signals. (Bonus: PermaBears usually appear out of no where or become much more active as we near the lip of the "last side of the cup", there shorts usually explode in numbers, the price drops into the first part of the "handle" and the PermaBears say "I told you so", etc. As it reaches to it's low and ranges, PermaBears grow more confident and "invincible" that prices cannot go up because certain "indicators" were "broken" below. Shorts ever increase. Then the uptrend occurs from the bottom of the handle to possibly break the line and explode up leaving many short covering, liquidations, etc. that help drive the price in it's second and third leg of pumps after whales push prices to break the "handle neckline" when PermaBears are feeling Invincible. Rinse, repeat. I believe this year (and 2021) is where in general, Bears will lose if they fight against the overall uptrend.

Good luck!
 
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James Fake

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I am predicting we hit the top around mid-next week and begin a fairly nice size sell off (Feb 10-11ish) to begin a downtrend for couple months then another rally to create a double top in May then downturn all the way to November.
Gold & Bitcoin will continue to move inversely to stocks this entire year.

(just for today's reference looking back at this post in a month. DJI: 29,040. Bitcoin: $9,473. Gold: $1,556)

On Feb 5th I wrote these in that recession thread (don't want to hi-jack that thread), and here are the updated prices:

February 11th
DJI: 29,402. (on Feb. 12th was the highest peak at 29,562)
Bitcoin: $9736
Gold: $1563

February 24th
DJI: 28,026
Bitcoin: $9706 (peak high price today was actually $10,000)
Gold: $1689

It will be very interesting to me to see if the crazy things I say actually do come to life lol.. (especially since those were my thoughts during the middle of stocks FLYING). Literally Feb 11th and 12th was the actual pivot reversal point thus far.

Some thoughts...

Dow Jones went down 4.79%, Gold went up 7.74%, and Bitcoin kind of stayed* the same.

* And this is what I want to point out for Bitcoin. Bitcoin in that time frame, unlike DJI and Gold (which went up/down, topped, then reversed); Bitcoin actually began pulling back on Feb 13th from $10,500.

So Bitcoin went from $9736, then shot up 7.55% to $10,500 (when stocks began to pullback) then went back down to the current day price of $9700.

Now this is the key "when stocks began to pullback". Money flowed into Bitcoin from stocks in a hidden way. Only in hindsight can we see that on Feb 11th; the stocks topped in price.. and in hindsight, we can also see where the money began leaking and flowing into hedging assets like Gold and Bitcoin. I mention HIDDEN because an equal pullback occurred on Bitcoin since Feb 11th to where if a normal person was to look at just the prices (now that the public is awoke to a possibility that last week was the top and we are now experiencing a downfall), they would not see Bitcoin as a hedging asset, and they would only see the obvious Gold.

I believe this to be a key play.

Thus, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to go up and the next movements will likely be in about 24-72 hours. Now that the public is getting its first dose of "stock sell off" fear, on the 2nd or 3rd day of selling off when the "stock sell off is garnering it's highest amount of attention", Bitcoin will begin pumping again and catching eyeballs of the average investor.

That will in turn lead to curiosity, leading to halving research, leading to even more money transfer from stocks to Bitcoin.
 

James Fake

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Quick update on my current take on markets:

Over-reaction. Economically, yes Coronavirus on China reduced production will have an effect on our economy, but that will soon pass after at most a quarter and a half. Then things will return to "normal" with a flat to slightly upward trajectory. (vs the sell off down trends we will likely have for Q1 and Q2)

Right now; there is a crazy height of market fear thinking the US is going to have an all out disease control. I doubt it, healthcare is much better here and we already have a 100x step head start, whereas China neglected the virus until it went out of control.

Anyways... Stocks will be MEH until elections. Bitcoin and Gold will continue to rise over the next months to almost the end of the year.

At this $9300 Bitcoin price, I doubled down on some positions... I am hoping that we find the local bottom here and continue the bullish trend up to $11.8k or $13k to end March or early April. Then I plan to get back into fiat.

EDIT Add:
DJI at 27,200. The DJI for the past weeks has been full of "retail average Joe" traders. This is what we are seeing now; the selling off from them. We are near a local bottom and expect a bounce the rest of this week and next. Big money players know better than to sell at the bottom. They will buy up at bargain right now, pump the price, and likely another drop near the second (maybe first) week of March. The "retail average Joes" will sell and watch the price go back up over the next two weeks, feel stupid for over-reacting, buy back in, and the big players will dump.

Same with BTC. From $9,700 on down to current price is all "retail average Joes" panic selling. The price will rise again from this $9,300 just like the DJI.
 
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steelandchrome

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Always the worst when the average Joe's massive influx into trading and its always at the highs from FOMO. One or two bad days and they panic sell vs holding as we are seeing now. I'm looking to add capital to the markets (not adding to my crypto portfolio right now, but that could change...) I do anticipate a bit of an ALT rally and when it does I'm going to weed out of everything but BTC and ETH. (May keep a light position in LTC and LINK)
 
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James Fake

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Wow.. Took a fairly good size loss today. Got caught off guard on a crash that broke down below the 200 daily MA. Expensive lessons learned here for me. Will do better going forward!

With that said; I need to re-analyze Bitcoin again and see where things are now and where things need to pivot and where they might head as the current prediction had it bouncing off the $9300 area back to up fill the $11.8k gap.

Will post again here shortly..
 

James Fake

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So.... I decided I'm moving any posts (past and current) regarding my analysis on all markets (stock, economy, crypto, gold, etc.) to this thread instead of the big Recession one.

  • My fundamental analysis is non-traditional and often "crazy" due it's contrarian views and timing. Almost as anti-technical as you can get.

  • By some miracle, my analysis were deadly spot-on, and I believe they warrant much more attention. Important: I DO NOT want to convince anybody with my fundamentals, however, it would be beneficial to always take into account different perspectives when creating your own (as should be with all things!)

EDIT 2/28/2020:
As I literally was writing out a summary (that took 2 hours) of all the predictions I posted on that thread and noting them with being Wrong or Right or To Be Determined; whatever powers may be, my browser tab decided 'go back' then 'forward' then 'exit' and I lost it all. Very frustrating, and I take that as a sign.

Anyways; not doing that again so I am making this chicken scratch notes (feel free to dig through my old postings):

  • I predicted exact top of major stock market sell off on Feb 11th due to Coronavirus that I predicted weeks before.
  • I predicted Gold would boom in January. (I made a shitload of money) as stock markets were being distributed into weak hands aka the TOP.
  • I predicted stock markets would continue flying upwards in a bull market to all time highs in August 2019 when fears was at maximum for Recession via Inverted Yield Curve event.

To Be Determined:
  • GREAT DEPRESSION IN ~2029, and right now is the Roaring 20's all over again.
    • The Internet brought us the economic boom and has tapped out in innovation.
  • Oil Prices could be a sleeper catalyst to recession.
  • The East is buying up all the Gold, and a remix version of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 would re-emerge within the next 20 years.

I currently spent 10 hours analyzing if this MAJOR stock market sell off is indeed the beginning of a recession. Most of it, right now, is going to be determined by how the stock market behaves AFTER it's relief bounce pump to fill some gaps. I am leaning towards a double-top'ish hard crash again after the relief pump, but we'll see. I have to time NEWS into the equation.

Obviously people are at ALL TIME HIGH FEARS so it's probably a good time to buy to make some easy money for the short-term relief bounces.
 
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James Fake

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LADIES AND GENTLEMEN.... START YOUR RECESSION ENGINES!

I am now declaring with my bro-science fundamentals that we are officially entering inside Recession Territory. (5-6 years from now will I look back at this dated post and either go: 'you F*ckin wizard' or you 'F*ckin lunatic'). Either my 10 hours of analyzing last night was wasted, or I am about to capitalize BIG.

One:
We will see a relief bounce in Stocks followed by more long-term downside. Basically; a double top is what I'm calling. Here's why...

The incoming relief bounce that will happen over the next week or so is entirely comprised of "average Joes" aka Weak Hands aka the same people who bought from Dow Jones 25,000 to 30,000 aka people who think they are about to "buy blood in the streets" and "major sale prices on stocks"... Oh, they haven't experienced what real blood is yet. They are mistaken a bad cut with blood.

"Buy when there's blood on the streets", a bad cut isn't enough to spill blood on the street from people in their houses. Think About It.

The big players are out aka The Support aka The Strong Hands. Now we have a bunch of Weak Hands buying a bounce equals a price compromised of more quick sell-off whenever the rock gets rolling off the hill.

Two:
As mentioned numerous times in another Recession thread that I am moving my own analysis away from; I said (during the Inverted Yield Curve days) when public's interest goes to "dead" levels in the terms "Recession" and "Inverted Yield Curve" meaning Google Trends shows a dead dribble on the bottom coupled with an overlay of the Stock Market prices growing exponentially over that dead dribble is when the STOCK MARKET BIG SELL OFF AND RECESSION WOULD HAPPEN. And guess what...?? It happened.

Ironically; the bottom of stock market prices will happen when STOCK PRICES ARE DEAD but when public interest in RECESSION terms are spiked.


Third:

Silly bro-science fundamentals. But.. F*ckin TV Commercials. Too many damn commercials. I've noticed a trend where on major news, etc. etc. channels, commercial times have increased and air times have decreased.

This to me indicates Invincibility. The LAST STAGE OF ANY RUN UP. And we hit the tipping point on February 11-12.


Could I be completely wrong? Sure I could. But eventually; I have to come to terms with myself that my fundamentals and ability to analyze emotional sentiment is often spot-on.
 
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James Fake

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This brings me to back full circle around to Crypto. I have been looking at things every which way on how it all synchronizes...

I am leaning towards NOT GOOD. For short-term and mid-term.. I see a bottom that I have no idea where it's at (possibly mid $7000s) and until I see evidence of accumulation range and behavior by Strong Hands aka Whales, I am not married on a direction just yet for the long-term (meaning: How and what Bitcoin does post-halving)

Mathematically; post-halving should raise prices, but I need to first see if that was already priced in earlier this year or not. More on this later in the coming days...
 

James Fake

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This is what I am eye'ing as a possibility for Bitcoin to do over the next three months. Pretty much, a drop to $7,600ish and then possibly to even lower $7,000ish (pink line) followed by a run up to $13k over the next two months reaching it in early May before Halving. Or green line where $7,600ish is the bottom.

This exact pattern can be almost identical to what US Stocks will do as well since they are very much tethered together right now. Except obviously US Stocks wouldn't pump up on the last part, but as long as it's a slow upward trend (or rather staying supported and clear of Coronavirus stuff) then Bitcoin should have a chance to fly.
 
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James Fake

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So..... thus far; Bitcoin has not really retraced from this major resistance of $9100-$9200 area.

Even in an investment environment of pretty much chaos (stocks tanking then untanking, coronavirus increasing numbers, etc.); it is STILL holding above the daily 200 moving average.

I am really at a "I have a zero clue" stage of which way Bitcoin goes... meaning:

1) I think Coronavirus stats will only worsen from here and a week or so from "topping" out to where the numbers begin reducing in speed.

2) That will have a negative impact on stocks and will likely retest lows, if not form another low depending on how maxed out Fear level will get when we reach different death count milestones.

3) Which leads me to this: Does Bitcoin "hedge" against the markets and we see the first glimpses of Gold 2.0?

4) Or does the Entire Tide Bring Down All Ships?

To me; I lean towards #4 as I just don't understand why a good chunk of people would Not want to sell (when things don't look bottomed imo) to sit in King Cash to scoop up more. And King Cash means Cashing out everything, especially such a risky speculative asset like Crypto.

I would think that's the First To Go, but it's actions is telling otherwise thus far...

Very confused lol. Should probably just play it both ways with a hedge and cut the loss on one once it breaks a certain sure way lol.
 
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James Fake

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I believe when the US reaches the 100 body count (which I believe will be sometime early to mid next week as we are at 15 dead count); there will be an extremely strong public reaction to it and the market will move negatively very hard. Imo; I think this will be the final straw to get some big actions into play that will unfold throughout the next 9-10 days as things get worse.

With that said; I am very carefully observing when I think we approach Max Fear level. I still think mid March... likely about 13th or 16th of March in terms of stocks and market stuff goes.
 
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James Fake

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I will be honest here, I'm a fair bit discouraged regarding sharing some alarming stuff that kept rearing it's head while analyzing markets and fundamentals.

Taking a forum break for a couple months...

Will check my PMs as I can. Best of luck to everyone during these crazy times and I wish nothing but good health!!

Peace.
 
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It will go down to under €3000. After that, can't predict the plateau, the longer the crisis last, the longer it will go down.
 

Zhyna

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struggling to hold $5000, will BTC live to tell the tale? We will soon find out
 
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Dan_Fastlane

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wow guys very negative, are you guys leaving the sinking ship?
 

biophase

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This thread is interesting... people pump it up and when cryptos go down it becomes silent. I guess a good signal on when to buy is to look up the numbers of days that have gone by on this thread without a post. :smile2:

I have no idea what I'm doing with crypto, but buying and holding bitcoin at $3k sounded good last year as does buying more at $5k sounds pretty good to me now. Do it for the long term guys, not to trade!
 

Morgan77

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This thread is interesting... people pump it up and when cryptos go down it becomes silent. I guess a good signal on when to buy is to look up the numbers of days that have gone by on this thread without a post. :smile2:

I have no idea what I'm doing with crypto, but buying and holding bitcoin at $3k sounded good last year as does buying more at $5k sounds pretty good to me now. Do it for the long term guys, not to trade!

I bought in at $4.8K for the long term, I think it already bottomed and we're in for some good months ahead of us, as long as the world doesn't end of course.

I might get some sh*t for this, but in my opinion, Bitcoin is just a gamble because of how crazy it is. At this price however, I'd rather hold bitcoin than hit up the roulette table.
 
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ChrisV

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I don't know. I still think (besides investment purposes,) 90% of the use of cryptocurrencies is buying crack on DarkNet markets. That's the reason it has value. Bitcoin is going to be a target for Law Enforcement because of that, and if they have their way the value of BTC is going to nosedive like an eagle going in for a fish.

Expert consensus:

32270

32273



About the IGM Economic Experts Panel
This panel explores the extent to which economists agree or disagree on major public policy issues. To assess such beliefs we assembled this panel of expert economists. Statistics teaches that a sample of (say) 40 opinions will be adequate to reflect a broader population if the sample is representative of that population.


Just be educated on what you're investing in. Like when you buy stock in Google, you're placing a bet that Google is going to succeed. When you buy Bitcoin you're placing a bet that Bitcoin is going to suceed. You're basically investing in a company that helps people send money anonymously to drug dealers. That is the primary use of Bitcoin. Anything else is naive. I don't care about the moral implications of purchasing guns or drugs.. it's not my business what people buy. I just don't think it's a safe bet. I think the odds of LE shutting down a currency that's primarily used to buy illegal goods is pretty high.

The FBI is going to be cracking down on it. The IRS is going to be cracking down on it. And once that happens, the bubble is going to pop. I mean if you want to gamble on it before it pops.. go for it.. but Bitcoin, I can almost say with 100% certainty, is not here to stay. Other cryptos are potentially a different story.
 
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Rivoli

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This thread is interesting... people pump it up and when cryptos go down it becomes silent. I guess a good signal on when to buy is to look up the numbers of days that have gone by on this thread without a post. :smile2:

I have no idea what I'm doing with crypto, but buying and holding bitcoin at $3k sounded good last year as does buying more at $5k sounds pretty good to me now. Do it for the long term guys, not to trade!
I called all the alt-coins just like I called coronavirus being a nothingburger
now I’m calling China’s collapse

will they listen now?
 

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Kak

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I am kind of disappointed. This was BTC's time to shine and it let me down. I don't own a ton of, it but I LOVE the entire premise of cryptocurrency. Maybe it is still just a little ahead of its time.

The worlds's next billionaires are going to tackle daily inefficiencies to commerce. Credit card fees are basically robbing the entire consumer economy of 2% for instance. There are a lot of things out there like that ripe for disruption.
 
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@ChrisV Drug dealers love cash too.

Bitcoin and the rest of the market definitely took a shit along with stocks at one point, but they're now holding pretty steady, in fact I'm up about 10% on a couple recent additions.

(Now watch it crash again now I've said that, just to make me look like a lemon).
 

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@ChrisV Drug dealers love cash too.

Bitcoin and the rest of the market definitely took a shit along with stocks at one point, but they're now holding pretty steady, in fact I'm up about 10% on a couple recent additions.

(Now watch it crash again now I've said that, just to make me look like a lemon).
Was a flight to de-risk. Expected when people liquidate positions. Watch the monetary base growth of the USD Monetary Base; Total it is spiking and will spike further..by a lot. If you're in cash your position is being diluted tremendously. Unlike the money supply of the USD Bitcoin's new money supply will be cut in half by an algorithm in less than 23 days. So I fully expect a de-risk in cash exposure to flood to gold and bitcoin soon.
 

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