Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Antifragile]

I have shorted a few coins (with a very small percentage of my portfolio) on Binance. I think it is much easier to spot an overhyped coin than to predict a pump.

The problem however, is that it's very hard to predict when a pump is over. There are simply too many investing with their heart and not their brain. A coin can do a x2 in a week, and then do another x4 after a you have placed a short position.

There are ways to mitigate this risk, but I don't this it's worth the hassle compared to just holding.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid. Old quite, but apt for this post. It’s true not just for crypto, but market cycles in general.

 

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[Deleted78083]

There is almost no interest in Crypto this round compared to 2018 from what I can se so far. I think we still have a way to go.

This is going to see-saw for a while I figure. There is the odd mention of this from regular folk, but nothing at all like what I saw in 2018.

I have been trying to get some friends to buy for like a year and they STILL won't even bother to pull up a chart and see what is happening. I figure when we are closer to the top they will be the one telling me about it and how I should buy.

When my friend told me about his friends started getting some btc, i started thinking it was time to get out. And indeed, a week later, we had that big drop.

 

[PeterBoss]

I have shorted a few coins (with a very small percentage of my portfolio) on Binance. I think it is much easier to spot an overhyped coin than to predict a pump.

The problem however, is that it's very hard to predict when a pump is over. There are simply too many investing with their heart and not their brain. A coin can do a x2 in a week, and then do another x4 after a you have placed a short position.

There are ways to mitigate this risk, but I don't this it's worth the hassle compared to just holding.

Yep, true, and I broadly agree.
I just like thinking about abstract concepts in general and enjoy discussing finance, regardless of the instrument.
I was merely describing a risk mitigation strategy (hedging a long term position). The volatility of the asset class would make any naked short an almost certain road to ruin.

 

[Timmy C]

Lots of fear, I bought a little more bitcoin.
If it drops more ill add to it again.
If it goes up, I'm content missing out, but I won't dump it all in at once.
There is also very little searches for Bitcoin on google trends, retail is here, but not the majority.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index - Bitcoin Sentiment

The crypto fear & greed index of alternative.me provides an easy overview of the current sentiment of the Bitcoin / crypto market at a glance.

alternative.me

 

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[Ocean Man]

Lots of fear, I bought a little more bitcoin.
If it drops more ill add to it again.
If it goes up, I'm content missing out, but I won't dump it all in at once.
There is also very little searches for Bitcoin on google trends, retail is here, but not the majority.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index - Bitcoin Sentiment

The crypto fear & greed index of alternative.me provides an easy overview of the current sentiment of the Bitcoin / crypto market at a glance.

alternative.me

I’m waiting for that ether drop . Want to own enough to eventually stake. But to get to that point, man, it’d have to drop drop.

 

[Timmy C]

I’m waiting for that ether drop . Want to own enough to eventually stake. But to get to that point, man, it’d have to drop drop.

Lol yeh that would be nice.

 

[Frinys]

I’m waiting for that ether drop . Want to own enough to eventually stake. But to get to that point, man, it’d have to drop drop.

You don't need to own 32 ETH to stake. You can join a staking pool, or you can stake on exchanges.

Currently, running a validator yields an 8.41% annual return, while a staking pool yields 7.49%. That one percent point is barely worth the hassle of running a validator, especially if you have to de-diversify to get 32 ETH.

Another good option is to find a group of trusted people and start a private staking pool. That way, you get a higher annual return than in a public pool, and only one in the group has to run a validator node.

 

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[GPM]

I plan on staking Ether. I plan on selling during the hype of this run, and then buying back in after it crashes. I am not worried about getting groups of 32 Eth right now at these prices. However, if this all pulls back 80-90% similar to 2018 then yea, much easier to do so.

Wait for that blood on the street.

 

[Antifragile]

I plan on staking Ether. I plan on selling during the hype of this run, and then buying back in after it crashes. I am not worried about getting groups of 32 Eth right now at these prices. However, if this all pulls back 80-90% similar to 2018 then yea, much easier to do so.

Wait for that blood on the street.

My predictions are worth nothing, so bear that in mind. And I claim that you will not see a 90% down correction for ETH or BTC. Not from today’s high watermark.
I view correction as 30% down and I’ll buy with that in mind.

 

[GPM]

I am expecting an 80-90% correction after this goes parabolic and the dumb money gets into it. Not a correction from today's prices.

So if Eth hits $6-8,000, I expect a pullback to somewhere in the $1000 mark. I have just consulted my crystal ball and it is telling me that I am correct and to stay the course lol. Sell at $5000+, buy back at $1000 and 5x my holdings. So that means I need to hold somewhere like 8 Eth NOW in order to turn that into a node next year or whenever this happens.

 

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[Antifragile]

you must have toughest crystal balls to wait for $1000 ETH price, especially if you are right about $8,000 price first.

 

[Frinys]

I am expecting an 80-90% correction after this goes parabolic and the dumb money gets into it. Not a correction from today's prices.

So if Eth hits $6-8,000, I expect a pullback to somewhere in the $1000 mark. I have just consulted my crystal ball and it is telling me that I am correct and to stay the course lol. Sell at $5000+, buy back at $1000 and 5x my holdings. So that means I need to hold somewhere like 8 Eth NOW in order to turn that into a node next year or whenever this happens.

I feel like everyone I talk to, I included, plans to sell because a gigantic correction is certain to happen. It seems so easy. Everyone knows exactly what to do. That makes me wonder, is it really so that we will see just another crash like after 2013 and 2017?

Maybe we're in a supercycle. If so, there will be no gigantic correction. This bull run does feel different than the last one, but I wouldn't trade on my feelings alone. However, if this is a supercycle, selling Ethereum is the last thing anyone would want to do.

My strategy is to sell approximately 30% of my portfolio, depending on how many of my targets are met. That way, I have a lot of capital if a major correction happens, but I'm also not left on the shelf if we're in a supercycle.

 

[Antifragile]

The question I ask myself is whether there has been wide adoption already or not yet? Are we in year 1990 of the internet or the year 1995 with Windows 95?
If adoption is wide, then I propose that a 90% correction won’t happen. And I believe adoption is wide. My PR agency asked me about crypto! That’s a sign, not proper data analysis but observation tells me that we are past the 90% swings. 50% probably can happen. But I’d start buying even with a 20% dip on the way down.

 

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[Timmy C]

I feel like everyone I talk to, I included, plans to sell because a gigantic correction is certain to happen. It seems so easy. Everyone knows exactly what to do. That makes me wonder, is it really so that we will see just another crash like after 2013 and 2017?

Maybe we're in a supercycle. If so, there will be no gigantic correction. This bull run does feel different than the last one, but I wouldn't trade on my feelings alone. However, if this is a supercycle, selling Ethereum is the last thing anyone would want to do.

My strategy is to sell approximately 30% of my portfolio, depending on how many of my targets are met. That way, I have a lot of capital if a major correction happens, but I'm also not left on the shelf if we're in a supercycle.

I can imagine everyone selling when they think it couldn't possibly go much higher.

Then it rips another 200% and they all FOMO back in.
I will layer out positions much as I have done on all of my altcoin holdings.

I am in profit on most positions apart from BTC/ETH as they are the only 2 holdings I haven't sold a dime of yet.

 

[Timmy C]

I find it ridiculous that my STX just spits out BTC every month lol.

 

[Kak]

What does everyone think of Firo? I stumbled on it and it seems pretty promising in capabilities and still has a level of “undiscovered” to it.

 

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[Timmy C]

What does everyone think of Firo? I stumbled on it and it seems pretty promising in capabilities and still has a level of “undiscovered” to it.

First I am hearing of it man.
I will look into it.

 

[Ocean Man]

Random idea I had was what if police body-cam footage is put onto the blockchain. That way it'd be immutable. Not a police hater, but believe that body-cam footage should be made available to the public. Not even just body-cam footage but leaks in general. There are websites out there that posts leaks, but if those go down... well, they go down.

 

[Timmy C]

What does everyone think of Firo? I stumbled on it and it seems pretty promising in capabilities and still has a level of “undiscovered” to it.

No whitepaper.
Not a good start.
Probably a scam lol.
Doesn't appear to be much if any development either.
What's wrong with other private currencies like Monero? Why are they needed?

 

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[Timmy C]

ok so Firo was formerly zcoin.
Here is a video on it.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqCD6qozLkQ


Here is a bit of information on the tech they are supposedly using.

https://lelantus.io/lelantus.pdf

They were 51% attacked recently.

 

[Matt Sun]

I keept DCA since I got to crypto in 2017. And I still will do that. So far so good, I’m in green territory and with the force of DCA I plan to keep it green. If it goes parabolic I sell. Otherwise my business earns me BTC, Eth and Iota.

 

[Timmy C]

Here is the STX whitepaper for anyone that wants to start sussing that project out.

https://gaia.blockstack.org/hub/1AxyPunHHAHiEffXWESKfbvmBpGQv138Fp/stacks.pdf

 

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[Frinys]

Random idea I had was what if police body-cam footage is put onto the blockchain. That way it'd be immutable. Not a police hater, but believe that body-cam footage should be made available to the public. Not even just body-cam footage but leaks in general. There are websites out there that posts leaks, but if those go down... well, they go down.

There are two key features of blockchain that make this impossible. Immutability and distribution. I'm taking the time to explain why, because it's quite an important limitation of blockchains.

Immutability
Since blockchains are immutable, all data uploaded must be stored on the blockchain infinitely.

Let's say each country in the world uploads 1 hour of 720p @ 30fps leaked video each day. This equals approximately 5GB of data uploaded for each country, each day. There are approximately 200 countries in the world.

Blockchain growth = "GB per day" x "Countries" = 5GB x 200 = 1000 GB/d = 1TB/d.

By this calculation, the blockchain will grow for about 1TB of data per day. Which will have to be stored infinitely.

Distribution
Since blockchains are distributed, all data must be distributed across many nodes.

In this example, we'll assume 100 full nodes. For reference, the Bitcoin blockchain has over 10,000 full nodes. Each node must store all of the data on the blockchain.

Total storage space growth of the blockchain = "Full nodes" x "Blockchain growth" = 100 * 1TB/d = 100TB/d.

The blockchain would grow with 100 Terrabytes per day. That's a lot of storage. And you want this solution to last longer than a centralized non-blockchain solution. Let's say 30 years.

100TB/d * 365 days * 30 years = 1,095,000 Terrabytes

Note that this calculation is extremely naive. There are 700,000 police officers in America alone. 1 hour equals 0,005 seconds of video per police officer per day.

Conclusion/TLDR
Such a solution would require at least 1,095,000 Terrabytes of data to store 1 hour of data per country per day for the next 30 years. Blockchains are great for storing small amounts of data, like transactions and data hashes, but grow way too fast to store larger files.

 

[Ocean Man]

There are two key features of blockchain that make this impossible. Immutability and distribution. I'm taking the time to explain why, because it's quite an important limitation of blockchains.

Immutability
Since blockchains are immutable, all data uploaded must be stored on the blockchain infinitely.

Let's say each country in the world uploads 1 hour of 720p @ 30fps leaked video each day. This equals approximately 5GB of data uploaded for each country, each day. There are approximately 200 countries in the world.

Blockchain growth = "GB per day" x "Countries" = 5GB x 200 = 1000 GB/d = 1TB/d.

By this calculation, the blockchain will grow for about 1TB of data per day. Which will have to be stored infinitely.

Distribution
Since blockchains are distributed, all data must be distributed across many nodes.

In this example, we'll assume 100 full nodes. For reference, the Bitcoin blockchain has over 10,000 full nodes. Each node must store all of the data on the blockchain.

Total storage space growth of the blockchain = "Full nodes" x "Blockchain growth" = 100 * 1TB/d = 100TB/d.

The blockchain would grow with 100 Terrabytes per day. That's a lot of storage. And you want this solution to last longer than a centralized non-blockchain solution. Let's say 30 years.

100TB/d * 365 days * 30 years = 1,095,000 Terrabytes

Note that this calculation is extremely naive. There are 700,000 police officers in America alone. 1 hour equals 0,005 seconds of video per police officer per day.

Conclusion/TLDR
Such a solution would require at least 1,095,000 Terrabytes of data to store 1 hour of data per country per day for the next 30 years. Blockchains are great for storing small amounts of data, like transactions and data hashes, but grow way too fast to store larger files.

I initially commented how if we increase the # of nodes to a unrealistic amount then we may be able to do this. But that logic doesn't make sense. It would just mean more people need to download more data.

Hmm.

Kind of bursts my bubble about how much we can actually run on the blockchain. :\

I think leaks, whistleblowers, etc... would be important to put on the blockchain since the data would be immutable.

 

[Xeon]

Yes, cryptos can be controlled and seized by governments.

Tax Authority Seizes Cryptocurrencies Worth $25 Million From Hundreds of Crypto Investors in South Korea – Taxes Bitcoin News

 

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[Timmy C]

It costs about $700 USD to create your own scam crypto on ethereum. Just saying...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385369586720133122

View: https://twitter.com/cryptobuzznews/status/1385369586720133122

 

[Ocean Man]

Yes, cryptos can be controlled and seized by governments.

Tax Authority Seizes Cryptocurrencies Worth $25 Million From Hundreds of Crypto Investors in South Korea – Taxes Bitcoin News

In this case, they confiscated cryptocurrencies from people who were deliberately avoiding and didn't pay taxes.

But nonetheless, this is exactly why I recommend to people to get a cold-storage and not have their tokens on an exchange. 10/10, you need to own your assets. Nobody can take it away from you if they're securely stored on their own wallet.

But what is frustrating is that although the point of crypto is supposed to be decentralized and consensus-based, you have countries like South Korea trying to regulate it and tax it. It's not supposed to be a nation's currency and regulated as such. South Korea is also talking with lawmakers to see if they should even let their people invest in crypto in the first place. There is talks about potentially banning exchanges and the like entirely to "protect" their people because crypto is so volatile.

Lets be honest, It's not about protecting their people and crypto being volatile. It's about control. They want to be able to regulate it and have people paying taxes on it.

For a country that is huge on innovation, especially in blockchain and A.I, I don't understand what they're doing. It's stupid. The entrepreneurial scene in SK is all about AI. Blockchain, machine learning, etc... This is equivalent to shooting themselves in the foot... This is exactly why the majority of people, businesses, schools, etc run on earlier versions of Window, Internet Explorer, and ActiveX.

In fact, in fact the Bank of Korea is actually creating/created (not sure if it's already been introduced) their own cryptocurrency.

How does this guy:

Supposedly an economist and technocrat, become Governor of the Bank of Korea? "There is no intrinsic value in crypto assets," BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol"

Crypto is a utility. Money as a service... software-as-money, money-as-a-content-type...

 

[Frinys]

Yes, cryptos can be controlled and seized by governments.

Tax Authority Seizes Cryptocurrencies Worth $25 Million From Hundreds of Crypto Investors in South Korea – Taxes Bitcoin News

This is like saying that illegal torrenting can be controlled and seized because a few have gotten a hefty fine for illegal torrenting.

But guess what, torrenting is at an ATH!

 

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[Timmy C]

Coins secured in cold storage.

Government:
Crypto is now illegal, and people will be prosecuted, hand over your crypto assets now!

You:
I lost my wallet in a boating accident, I donno who has it. Me so poor I can't eat food!

 

[Timmy C]

This is like saying that illegal torrenting can be controlled and seized because a few have gotten a hefty fine for illegal torrenting.

But guess what, torrenting is at an ATH!

You know what else is at an all time high in Turkey after the ban?

OTC trading and Bitcoin interest.