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Any undervalued stocks you recommend?

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Anything related to investing, including crypto

biophase

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If there’s no way to measure if it’s a good investment, it’s more like gambling. The word is speculation.

Think about how you analyze a real estate deal. I know you’re really good at that and have solid criteria for it.

I have certain criteria that I look for in real estate and to be honest, some are intangible. If I looked purely at the numbers, I wouldn't have purchased many of the homes I have. That's why I'm saying that just going by numbers in the stock market won't work in the future.

So in real estate,

Let's say that you value a home by its long term rental income potential. Let's say that a home that rents and nets $1000/mo is worth $200,000 based on your mathematical model.

Someone else who has 2 kids and loves the neighborhood and its school district is willing to pay $250,000 for the home and the comps in the neighborhood show this home is worth $250,000.

I come along and determines that by using this home as an Airbnb, that home can net $2000/mo. So by my Airbnb calc. model, the home is worth $400,000 because it returns X% to me.

So who is correct here? Well there are 3 different ways each person is evaluating the home's value.

The old "long term" rental calculation may not work anymore. The new way of calculating value may be using its Airbnb potential income. This is a brand new factor in evaluating a home's value that wasn't existing 5 years ago. The guy buying houses based on comps may not be pricing his home correctly either.

All I'm saying is that there are new factors that move the market now and that fundamentals are factored in less now than before.

If you look at what's a good PE ratio, I remember it used to be low like 10-15. Amazon's PE ratio was 250 in 2016. Google was between 25-30 which was considered really high in the 90s. The metrics need to change with the times.

Getting back to real estate, I'm going to factor in alot of other things like proximity to neighbors, distance from hiking trails, effect of global warming, unique architecture, etc... so when it comes to stocks like TSLA, I'm also going to factor in things like, who's the CEO, how is he on social media, do people like him, what do its customers say about the car, etc...
 
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thechosen1

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I have certain criteria that I look for in real estate and to be honest, some are intangible. If I looked purely at the numbers, I wouldn't have purchased many of the homes I have. That's why I'm saying that just going by numbers in the stock market won't work in the future.

So in real estate,

Let's say that you value a home by its long term rental income potential. Let's say that a home that rents and nets $1000/mo is worth $200,000 based on your mathematical model.

Someone else who has 2 kids and loves the neighborhood and its school district is willing to pay $250,000 for the home and the comps in the neighborhood show this home is worth $250,000.

I come along and determines that by using this home as an Airbnb, that home can net $2000/mo. So by my Airbnb calc. model, the home is worth $400,000 because it returns X% to me.

So who is correct here? Well there are 3 different ways each person is evaluating the home's value.

The old "long term" rental calculation may not work anymore. The new way of calculating value may be using its Airbnb potential income. This is a brand new factor in evaluating a home's value that wasn't existing 5 years ago. The guy buying houses based on comps may not be pricing his home correctly either.

All I'm saying is that there are new factors that move the market now and that fundamentals are factored in less now than before.

If you look at what's a good PE ratio, I remember it used to be low like 10-15. Amazon's PE ratio was 250 in 2016. Google was between 25-30 which was considered really high in the 90s. The metrics need to change with the times.

Getting back to real estate, I'm going to factor in alot of other things like proximity to neighbors, distance from hiking trails, effect of global warming, unique architecture, etc... so when it comes to stocks like TSLA, I'm also going to factor in things like, who's the CEO, how is he on social media, do people like him, what do its customers say about the car, etc...
Well, I look at intangibles too. Nobody said to ignore the that. In fact, I believe everything should be analyzed from both sides of the brain, right and left, or qualitative and quantitative.

But the thing is, would you ever buy real estate without doing math first? Of course not! Yet that’s how a lot of people are “investing” in stocks and crypto today.

(by the way, the PE ratio tells you very little and the old, old, super old stock investors were more concerned with P/B or price to book value. Today they look at price versus free cash flow, or discounted cash flow, which is also a great tool for value and fundamental analysis)
 

ljean

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High PE ratios indicate investors are expecting rapid future growth, the sort of growth that didnt really happen pre-internet. Mathematically, a stodgy old company with a PE ratio of 5 and no growth should return the same as a modern company with a PE of 100 that is growing 20% per year.
 

AceVentures

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Exactly... How do you value a company that isn't making any money?

...I guess the same way you decide if Bitcoin is "undervalued" or not, lol

If you show revenue people will ask how much and it will never be enough. The company that was the 100xer or the 1000xer becomes the 2x dog.

But if you say you have NO revenue you can say you're PRE-REVENUE. You're a potential pure play.

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smithsta

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GameStop…

Not just a meme stock.

They’ve massively ramped up eCommerce, increased product lines and about to announce an NFT project/marketplace.

Watch this space…
 

vgfdshjn

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GameStop…

Not just a meme stock.

They’ve massively ramped up eCommerce, increased product lines and about to announce an NFT project/marketplace.

Watch this space…
Yeah... I doubt it. The company has declining revenues and is still losing money - all the while downloads eat into their core business model. At the same time the company has a market cap of $16b. eCommerce is heavily bombarded through all sites now.

Back to the thread.
Companies that I currently find undervalued. Warning they are companies in either emerging markets or quite small. Gazprom, Kaspi.kz, Helios Towers, Georgia Capital, Trinseo, IDT Corp, Kazataprom, Paladin Energy, a lot of oil companies like oxy, meg, cve. Tobacco companies like Turning Point Brands, British American Tobacco and a weird, small, polish waste management company called Mo-Bruk
 

DoingDeals

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Not necessarily undervalued the Rivian RIVN IPO is next week & GE is splitting into 3 units.
 
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thechosen1

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Dover Motorsports went up 60% today. I bought it a week ago after analyzing it through a value investing tool.

It was clearly undervalued because the jump today was due to a sale that priced it far higher than the stock price - that price was determined by professionals, not robinhood traders.

Fundamentals do matter, the problem is that there are lots of idiots - I mean amateurs - in the markets today.
 

ljean

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Dover Motorsports went up 60% today. I bought it a week ago after analyzing it through a value investing tool.

It was clearly undervalued because the jump today was due to a sale that priced it far higher than the stock price - that price was determined by professionals, not robinhood traders.

Fundamentals do matter, the problem is that there are lots of idiots - I mean amateurs - in the markets today.
DVD was on my radar but it didnt have enough liquidity. My position size would have been around 50% of the typical daily volume.
 

thechosen1

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DVD was on my radar but it didnt have enough liquidity. My position size would have been around 50% of the typical daily volume.
I wish I had that problem. I was kind of chicken about it - it met all of my criteria but I definitely did not open a large enough position.
 
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Antifragile

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Antifragile

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I think this guy is onto something:


And if he's right, the time when Tesla becomes an undervalued stock might come sooner than some people on this forum had anticipated. ;)
 
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