Hi everyone,
So, as you may know, since May 2019, the "inverted yield curve" phenomenon happened in the U.S. This means that the short-term rates became higher than the long-term rates in the U.S. This means the banks will now have issues to lend money to consumers because it becomes less profitable for them. Basically, inverted yield curve = crisis. There is a Twitter thread which explains the phenomenon a little more in details: View: https://twitter.com/moorehn/status/1161766324642750465
.
So, the thing is, in May 2019, the U.S short-term rates became higher than the U.S long-term rates.
See OECD data:
_short-term rates: Interest rates - Short-term interest rates - OECD Data
_long-term rates: Interest rates - Long-term interest rates - OECD Data
According to Statista (Inverted Yield Curve: An Ominous Sign? | Coworking Spaces Grew More Than 1,000% In A Decade), on average, it takes 14 months between the inversion and the actual recession. So, there is a huge chance a violent recession happens worldwide in June-July 2020.
The question is not if the crisis will happen, but when.
So guys, what's your advice in order to get the best out of this situation? Where to put money and when?
Is it gold? The price of gold took a whopping 26% since January 2019 and it keeps rising, is it already too late?
Is it real-estate? If yes, when is the right time to buy? Is it too soon?
The stock market is likely to get hit in June-July 2020, so it is better to wait right now I guess?
Thanks!
P.S: I live in France, so characteristics of local U.S economies won't be useful for me. I need macro information
So, as you may know, since May 2019, the "inverted yield curve" phenomenon happened in the U.S. This means that the short-term rates became higher than the long-term rates in the U.S. This means the banks will now have issues to lend money to consumers because it becomes less profitable for them. Basically, inverted yield curve = crisis. There is a Twitter thread which explains the phenomenon a little more in details: View: https://twitter.com/moorehn/status/1161766324642750465
.
So, the thing is, in May 2019, the U.S short-term rates became higher than the U.S long-term rates.
See OECD data:
_short-term rates: Interest rates - Short-term interest rates - OECD Data
_long-term rates: Interest rates - Long-term interest rates - OECD Data
According to Statista (Inverted Yield Curve: An Ominous Sign? | Coworking Spaces Grew More Than 1,000% In A Decade), on average, it takes 14 months between the inversion and the actual recession. So, there is a huge chance a violent recession happens worldwide in June-July 2020.
The question is not if the crisis will happen, but when.
So guys, what's your advice in order to get the best out of this situation? Where to put money and when?
Is it gold? The price of gold took a whopping 26% since January 2019 and it keeps rising, is it already too late?
Is it real-estate? If yes, when is the right time to buy? Is it too soon?
The stock market is likely to get hit in June-July 2020, so it is better to wait right now I guess?
Thanks!
P.S: I live in France, so characteristics of local U.S economies won't be useful for me. I need macro information
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